For sure- but then this is not about Russia, but about a psychopath named Putin, on the nuclear button.

Ever since the 70s, many of us have been very aware that the concept of MAD, which protected us through the Cold war and the Cuban crisis- may not hold forever, and that a crazed psychopath could well be tempted to try it.


The position of the UK / EU has not been clairified to redefined properly since Brexit. Will the UK choose to go it alone in support of the USA again? And at what cost?

The UK also depends on Russian gas and other energies. From Reuters in November last year.

''HOW MUCH GAS DOES RUSSIA SUPPLY?

Europe relies on Russia for around 35% of its natural gas. The bulk comes through pipelines including Yamal, which goes through Belarus and Poland to Germany, Nord Stream, which goes directly to Germany, and pipelines going through Ukraine.

Europe’s internal gas markets are linked through a network of interconnecting pipelines. Not all countries get supply directly from Russia, but if countries such as Germany, the biggest consumer of Russian gas, see lower flows from Russia they must replace this from elsewhere such as Norway.

That has a knock-on effect on how much gas is available from other sources for other countries, and for transit.

Gas prices in Britain have been just as volatile as those in continental Europe on any news out of Russia, even though it only typically gets around 5% of its gas from Russia. Lower overall Russian supply to Europe means less could be available from its largest suppliers, like Norway.

Europe's energy chief says European countries have enough gas to meet their needs over the winter. The issue, however, is the price they will need to pay.''

Prices have been soaring in the UK this winter, with no sign of abating and a major factor in inflation. Putting individual families under huge pressure, but also manufacturers and the whole economy- in post Covid, post Brexit UK.''


Never was the expression 'got us over a barrel' more apt.

There are several factors that might make it seem like a legitimate pursuit for them. A pro-west Ukraine and the potential NATO issues are likely a big part of that. There is an ethnic element with the Donbas region. Ukraine has also damned up the water supply to Crimea which Russia is not happy about. Russia`s economy is not so big and there are exploitable resources in Ukraine. There's also the gas pipeline and transfer fees issue. Hard to say how important those reasons are to a Russian.

Russia is moving A LOT of equipment and resources at a level that goes beyond what they've done before as a drama exercise. Expensive for sure.

With their current force placements, its not unreasonable to think the Russians could take Kiev, everything north of Crimea, and leave Ukraine as a thin strip next to Poland.

With the current political climate, I don't know if anyone would even try to stop them. It would make for an interesting twist if Ukraine still had a nuclear weapon or two though.

Before, after or during the Winter Olympics?? Im genuinely starting to think this is a legitimate concern.

Why do you think Russia must be comparable to the USA or China in this respect ? Ukrainian territory makes no difference in terms of safety for Russia, with current and upcoming weapon technologies. Given the poor state of economy these naked ambitions cost too much for the Russian people and just accelerate the collapse.

Rubbish, the UK buys mainly from Norway.

It's not rubbish as gas is a globally traded commodity and if there's tight supply and price volatility, everyone feels the pain.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58637094

The black scenario is Russia invades Ukraine, Europe does not help Ukrainians and Ukraine then blows the pipelines feeding Europe in revenge......

JackieO, what you stated was UK relies on Russian Gas.


From your link :-

Russia supplies less than 5% of the UK's gas, but provides much of the gas used by the rest of Europe.



Just look at the map below this quotation.


The main UK gas pipeline is between Norway and UK, there are no major gas lines between France/Holland/Belgium and the UK, some, yes, but not big ones that REALLY supply gas.


Gas prices will go up and go down, everywhere, as it is internationally traded, irrespective if it is Russian, Norwegian or Middle East.

What's the betting that Putin's ( so called invasion ) becomes just another Crimean annexation exercise of the Russian separatist regions of the Donbas & Luhansk in eastern Ukraine already lost by the Ukrainians ?
With the separatists opening the border gates to them.

Yes Biro. Well explained in the Reuter's article I quoted.

Europe’s internal gas markets are linked through a network of interconnecting pipelines. Not all countries get supply directly from Russia, but if countries such as Germany, the biggest consumer of Russian gas, see lower flows from Russia they must replace this from elsewhere such as Norway.

That has a knock-on effect on how much gas is available from other sources for other countries, and for transit.

When pressure is put on the system of supply and demand- the effect is felt beyond normal boundaries.

In other words, it's not rubbish, as you suggested

Continental Europe is not the UK, just in case you missed it.....


Yes Continental Europe does have inter connectors between them but not many reach to the UK and the that do are not really major ones.


the UK is not reliant on Russian gas, sure some of the Norwegian gas gets diverted, but not much as the inter connectors are not set up for such things.



The Norwegians are quite happy with UK gas contracts, the UK pays international prices, the Norwegians will continue to supply the UK and consider them a major client.


When all this blows over and Continental Europe returns to Russian gas, the Norwegians don't want a problem with the UK



You really should be old enough not to count as gospel whatever the BBC says.....or the Guardian for that matter.


This is all bread and butter for gas traders, by the way.

You keep on missing the key point that irrelevant of where the UK gets its gas, gas is internationally traded and impacts everyone. The current uncertainty leads to volatility, the potentially tight supply leads to even more uncertainty, higher prices and everyone scrambling to get their hands on it. The UK is not immune, if you believe it is, I have a bridge to sell you.

47% of Swiss gas comes indirectly from Russia…

https://gazenergie.ch/de/wissen/deta...ic/3-herkunft/

One of Putin's daughters allegedly lives in Switzerland so we're safe

Actually that's what happened with another former KGB Spymaster, Karla who had his daughter, Tatiana secretly
committed to an expensive Swiss psychiatric sanatorium only for Karla's secret daughter to be unmasked
by British SIS Agent, George Smiley in Smiley's People.

Funny though aint it? All these anti-westeren leaders who want to destroy the west as we know it, still keep sending their kids to the west. I am sure that the irony is not lost to them, personally.

I certainly haven't missed the point !


Gas is sold under contract and not so much under spot business. The Norwegians jhave their contracts and will fullfill them .They will not divert part of their gas to other customers before fullfilling their contractual obligations.


Gas is not like delivering a pallet of cornflakes, it's a bit more complex involving pipelines, gas tankers terminals.....

"The US has ordered the relatives of its embassy staff in Ukraine to leave the country, as fears rise of a Russian invasion.

Non-essential embassy staff have also been told they can leave, and US citizens have been urged to do the same.

The State Department said the embassy remained open, but that a Russian invasion could come "at any time".

Russia has denied having any plans for military action in Ukraine.

The State Department also warned people not to travel to Ukraine and Russia due to the ongoing tension and "potential for harassment against US citizens".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60106416