Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Off-Topic > Off-Topic > International affairs/politics  
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1941  
Old 28.01.2022, 17:43
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,560
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,653 Times in 12,911 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
With Putin it's easier to work the other way around: what is it that he DOESN'T want? He doesn't want NATO encroaching on him on the West as he's getting squeezed on the East from China (make no mistake, these two are only tactical allies, eventually they will clash). He doesn't want open military confrontation with NATO as this will reveal the vulnerability of his military and he will lose the leverage of threat.

So based on the above limitations, I speculate he will NOT take over Kiev, but MAY enter Donbas and will certainly continue to harass and weaken Ukraine for the foreseeable future.
The Russian supported rebels in Donbas continue to frequently exchange fire with the Govt. forces. If the Russians only move into Donbas then that fighting will continue for the foreseeable future plus probably escalating due to continuing and increasing military support from the Western powers.
It was reported Ukrainians were using Javalin antitank missiles in the Donbas area just a couple of months ago.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #1942  
Old 28.01.2022, 18:48
gaburko's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: BL
Posts: 1,321
Groaned at 242 Times in 176 Posts
Thanked 4,917 Times in 1,872 Posts
gaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
However, for some Eastern European countries this is, obviously, an impossible proposition, and a recently demonstrated lack of Germany and France resolve doesn't help to change that.
Couldn't agree more. As an Eastern European Russia's outright provocations in the Black Sea and entering NATO airspace in Romania and Bulgaria which has been happening for years, makes me nervous that in some point in the future, the US might decide to retreat and Germany / France / UK might decide to reach a "deal".

Quote:
View Post
If the Russians only move into Donbas then that fighting will continue for the foreseeable future plus probably escalating due to continuing and increasing military support from the Western powers.
Agree. The Ukrainians are more battle-ready now, they are almost certainly more willing to fight back this time and Donbas is not Crimea in terms of population leaning towards Russia. Having said that, the sheer size of the Russian hardware and personnel at the border, provided the land freezes to allow for quick maneuvers, has the potential to very quickly overwhelm the Ukrainians.

I wouldn't want to be in the shoes of Ukraine...will I be raped or only harassed?
Reply With Quote
This user groans at gaburko for this post:
  #1943  
Old 29.01.2022, 00:05
mikedragos
 
Posts: n/a
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Russia's outright provocations in the Black Sea and entering NATO airspace
You are right - Russia should leave the Black Sea and go straight to Hudson Bay.
Reply With Quote
  #1944  
Old 29.01.2022, 06:53
gaburko's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: BL
Posts: 1,321
Groaned at 242 Times in 176 Posts
Thanked 4,917 Times in 1,872 Posts
gaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
You are right - Russia should leave the Black Sea and go straight to Hudson Bay.
No, you seem to have been missing the news on quite a few topics. Let me enlighten you. Russia enters the airspace of Romania and Bulgaria on a regular basis from the Black Sea. Also, Russia entered the Bulgarian airspace when it delivered the Pantsir-C1 air defense system to Serbia without getting authorization. All this is forcing NATO to scramble jets from Greece as Romania and Bulgaria still have a very small and old inventory of MIG 21 and MIG 29s while Greece has a massive one of F16s and much more capable pilots.
Reply With Quote
This user groans at gaburko for this post:
  #1945  
Old 29.01.2022, 09:26
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Zürich
Posts: 799
Groaned at 109 Times in 69 Posts
Thanked 1,108 Times in 550 Posts
vladest has a reputation beyond reputevladest has a reputation beyond reputevladest has a reputation beyond reputevladest has a reputation beyond reputevladest has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
I wouldn't be so confident on the lost influence. I personally know a few people with Ukrainian passports who are mad at Putin for stopping short of annexing the whole of Ukraine.
I personally know a lot op ukrainians who will kill every russian step on UA land with the guns
also since 2013 willingness of joining NATO goes up from 15% to 60% thanks to putin's strategic "genius"
Reply With Quote
  #1946  
Old 29.01.2022, 10:03
gaburko's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: BL
Posts: 1,321
Groaned at 242 Times in 176 Posts
Thanked 4,917 Times in 1,872 Posts
gaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
I personally know a lot op ukrainians who will kill every russian step on UA land with the guns
also since 2013 willingness of joining NATO goes up from 15% to 60% thanks to putin's strategic "genius"
No disagreements here, agree. However, that doesn't change the fact that its chances of entering NATO are exactly the same as in 2013, meaning none. Moreover, today Ukraine is smaller than it was in 2013 and even with it's somewhat more battle-ready army, it will not hold against 150k Russian soldiers, publicly unknow number of armored vehicles and jets currently at or close to its border and circa 20k armed separatists inside the country. Moreover, the "exercises" with Belarus allowed Russia to move even more personnel and hardware at the northern border of Ukraine where the distance to Kiev is shortest.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank gaburko for this useful post:
  #1947  
Old 29.01.2022, 10:54
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,560
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,653 Times in 12,911 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Weirdest comment yet
"Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene claims Biden is backing Ukraine against Russia because Ukraine 'has dirt on Hunter Biden'"
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #1948  
Old 29.01.2022, 11:10
gaburko's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: BL
Posts: 1,321
Groaned at 242 Times in 176 Posts
Thanked 4,917 Times in 1,872 Posts
gaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Weirdest comment yet
"Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene claims Biden is backing Ukraine against Russia because Ukraine 'has dirt on Hunter Biden'"
It would have been funny if this was merely a nobody, but as we know, the audience receptive to ridiculous conspiracy theories in the US is substantially larger than we thought. I often wonder to these people actually believe in the rubbish they say or it's merely a political game to prep the ground for Trump in 2024? Probably both...
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank gaburko for this useful post:
  #1949  
Old 29.01.2022, 12:03
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Zürich
Posts: 799
Groaned at 109 Times in 69 Posts
Thanked 1,108 Times in 550 Posts
vladest has a reputation beyond reputevladest has a reputation beyond reputevladest has a reputation beyond reputevladest has a reputation beyond reputevladest has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
No disagreements here, agree. However, that doesn't change the fact that its chances of entering NATO are exactly the same as in 2013, meaning none. Moreover, today Ukraine is smaller than it was in 2013 and even with it's somewhat more battle-ready army, it will not hold against 150k Russian soldiers, publicly unknow number of armored vehicles and jets currently at or close to its border and circa 20k armed separatists inside the country. Moreover, the "exercises" with Belarus allowed Russia to move even more personnel and hardware at the northern border of Ukraine where the distance to Kiev is shortest.
smaller doesnt means weaker. also UA army now much more stronger.
Plus, UA has circa 500k veterans of this war, ready to fight.
Plus all the gifts from US, UK and sane EU countries

the only way to suppress UA for russians is a massive nuke attack which is highly unlikely
Reply With Quote
This user groans at vladest for this post:
  #1950  
Old 29.01.2022, 12:08
komsomolez's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SZ
Posts: 4,317
Groaned at 429 Times in 307 Posts
Thanked 9,505 Times in 4,025 Posts
komsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
It would have been funny if this was merely a nobody, but as we know, the audience receptive to ridiculous conspiracy theories in the US is substantially larger than we thought. I often wonder to these people actually believe in the rubbish they say or it's merely a political game to prep the ground for Trump in 2024? Probably both...
God forbid these people ever gaining power in the US. Dire times for Europe.
Reply With Quote
  #1951  
Old 29.01.2022, 13:11
gaburko's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: BL
Posts: 1,321
Groaned at 242 Times in 176 Posts
Thanked 4,917 Times in 1,872 Posts
gaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
smaller doesnt means weaker. also UA army now much more stronger.
Yes, as I said, Ukraine in 2022 is much stronger that Ukraine in 2014. Yet, Ukraine in 2022 is far far inferior to Russia in 2022. Russia, apart from sheer superiority in personnel and hardware also has the advantage of a tens of thousands of well-organized and well-equipped separatists within Ukraine.

However, much more importantly, Russia almost certainly has no plans to overtake all of Ukraine, this would be a situation in which Putin has much more to lose than gain. I believe he is upping the ante significantly in order to further weaken Ukraine, bolster the pro-Russians factions there and reassert his sphere of dominance. Think Belarus - this is the archetype he's after. An "independent" state, clearly in the Russian sphere of influence in which any attempt for a dissenting voice is suppressed brutally by the Belarusian state itself.
Reply With Quote
  #1952  
Old 29.01.2022, 13:22
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Geneva
Posts: 463
Groaned at 63 Times in 39 Posts
Thanked 1,341 Times in 747 Posts
Reb77Br has a reputation beyond reputeReb77Br has a reputation beyond reputeReb77Br has a reputation beyond reputeReb77Br has a reputation beyond reputeReb77Br has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Ukraine: Boris Johnson to call Vladimir Putin and visit region

Here's hoping Johnson's diplomatic skills have improved since his input in the Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe case.
Reply With Quote
  #1953  
Old 29.01.2022, 14:21
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2022
Location: Waadtland
Posts: 66
Groaned at 21 Times in 14 Posts
Thanked 148 Times in 93 Posts
Buenzli is considered knowledgeableBuenzli is considered knowledgeableBuenzli is considered knowledgeable
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

It's surreal. Have the puppet masters already struck a deal with Russia?

Quote:
As Russian Troops Mass in Belarus, a Ukraine Border Is Largely Undefended
From the border, it’s a fast 140 miles down a newly paved highway to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, but only a few troops stand guard.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/29/w...r-ukraine.html
Reply With Quote
  #1954  
Old 29.01.2022, 14:34
leonie
 
Posts: n/a
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
However, much more importantly, Russia almost certainly has no plans to overtake all of Ukraine, this would be a situation in which Putin has much more to lose than gain. I believe he is upping the ante significantly in order to further weaken Ukraine, bolster the pro-Russians factions there and reassert his sphere of dominance. Think Belarus - this is the archetype he's after. An "independent" state, clearly in the Russian sphere of influence in which any attempt for a dissenting voice is suppressed brutally by the Belarusian state itself.
Isn’t this called „the color revolution“ and happens all over the world? But usually not managed by the Russians though
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank for this useful post:
  #1955  
Old 29.01.2022, 15:02
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,560
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,653 Times in 12,911 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
It would have been funny if this was merely a nobody, but as we know, the audience receptive to ridiculous conspiracy theories in the US is substantially larger than we thought. I often wonder to these people actually believe in the rubbish they say or it's merely a political game to prep the ground for Trump in 2024? Probably both...
No, like many politicians they do not believe what they themselves say, it is enough they have enough gullible followers.

Even worse so many Trump fans say the US should bow to Russia and not support Ukraine like Rep. Matt Rosendale, Rep. Paul Gosar, Senator Rand Paul, Tucker Carlson, Mike Cernovich, Steve Bannon, and many 2022 candidates.
Reply With Quote
  #1956  
Old 29.01.2022, 15:06
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,560
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,653 Times in 12,911 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Isn’t this called „the color revolution“ and happens all over the world? But usually not managed by the Russians though
Ukraine already had its Orange Revolution, they do not need another colour.
Reply With Quote
  #1957  
Old 29.01.2022, 15:15
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Zürich
Posts: 426
Groaned at 30 Times in 22 Posts
Thanked 396 Times in 210 Posts
Rjellsch has an excellent reputationRjellsch has an excellent reputationRjellsch has an excellent reputationRjellsch has an excellent reputation
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Reports are circulating that Russia has begun moving blood supplies to the front line areas. I had heard field medical facilities being established and activated but the blood is a new report.

If accurate, this would be a whole new level of attention to detail for posturing or sabre-rattling.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Rjellsch for this useful post:
  #1958  
Old 29.01.2022, 15:28
gaburko's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: BL
Posts: 1,321
Groaned at 242 Times in 176 Posts
Thanked 4,917 Times in 1,872 Posts
gaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post

If accurate, this would be a whole new level of attention to detail for posturing or sabre-rattling.
For a threat to be effective, it has to be credible

Whatever happens, and I certainly hope nothing does, I just hope and wish that the EU (read Germany) and the US will start treating the bully in Moscow with a bit of tougher love. Countries like Ukraine, but even more so the Baltic states and Eastern Europe have made a clear and unequivocal civilizational choice that they want to be part of the "west" and don't want the Bear meddling in their affairs. This should mean something to the European powers as if they mess it up again and don't stand up to him, the whole credibility of the "west" would be lost for the next few generations.

Disillusioned Eastern Europe is a very bad potential outcome of this and if we dislike Orban and the Polish leaders today, this is not even close to the drama that could happen if this spreads.

I do understand the real-politik of Putin and dislike of NATO, so be it, but he understands and speaks only the language of power. Excluding Russia from SWIFT, even for a few months so that they can't collect their revenue from grain and oil, will be such a painful blow that will consolidate his political and economical opposition in the Kremlin that he will think twice next time.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank gaburko for this useful post:
This user groans at gaburko for this post:
  #1959  
Old 29.01.2022, 19:29
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Zurich
Posts: 594
Groaned at 115 Times in 83 Posts
Thanked 1,664 Times in 871 Posts
John William has a reputation beyond reputeJohn William has a reputation beyond reputeJohn William has a reputation beyond reputeJohn William has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

So does Cold War 2 meet Able Archer 2 in 2022 on the Ukrainian border ?

I reckon the Ch4 documentary 1983 - The Brink of Apocalypse should be remade to bring it upto
date with the 2022 crisis in Ukraine.

So as per the 1983 script to the tune of Blue Monday & Two Tribes with the following alterations.

In 2022 there were 2 Superpowers, both possessed enough nuclear weapons to destroy the planet
several times over. Neither knew what the other side was thinking.
In the course of a year a series of disconnected events convinced the elderly US Leadership that
Russia was about to attack Ukraine and at this precise moment, Putin began an exercise that
rehearsed an invasion of Ukraine.
It almost triggered the real thing, now for the first time on television the overblown ? crisis of
this year is reconstructed to reveal just how close we came to the Third World War.

2022 - Sleepy Joe was in the White House, Vladimir Putin was in the Kremlin and Boris was
desperate to distract the British public from the wild parties at number 10, so war was in the air.

1983 - The Brink of Apocalypse part 1
__________________
Surely the time has come for Boris to 'circle the wagons' for a bit of herd immunity ?

Last edited by John William; 29.01.2022 at 19:41.
Reply With Quote
  #1960  
Old 29.01.2022, 19:37
Flying Kite's Avatar
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Carouge GE
Posts: 208
Groaned at 121 Times in 68 Posts
Thanked 227 Times in 129 Posts
Flying Kite is considered unworthyFlying Kite is considered unworthyFlying Kite is considered unworthyFlying Kite is considered unworthy
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

...if Russia will invade, they will do after Winter Olympics...sound like happened once...
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
crimea, russia, ukraine




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 2 (1 members and 1 guests)
debriefer
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Jewish Refugees in Switzerland during World War II zanskar International affairs/politics 48 16.06.2010 15:58
Book about Switzerland in the second world war [recommendation?] telandy Other/general 14 18.06.2007 20:15


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 07:38.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2023, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0