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  #1961  
Old 29.01.2022, 20:38
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Excluding Russia from SWIFT, even for a few months so that they can't collect their revenue from grain and oil, will be such a painful blow that will consolidate his political and economical opposition in the Kremlin that he will think twice next time.

No money, no grain, oil or gas, excluding Russia from SWIFT is very double edged, they can sell all they want to the Chinese using other methods than SWIFT so whilst it sounds good, it's more like shooting yourself in the knee, or higher......
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  #1962  
Old 29.01.2022, 21:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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No money, no grain, oil or gas, excluding Russia from SWIFT is very double edged, they can sell all they want to the Chinese using other methods than SWIFT so whilst it sounds good, it's more like shooting yourself in the knee, or higher......
dont expect that even if china will buy smth at russia, it will pay same price. most probably they will pay waaaaay lower than eu
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  #1963  
Old 29.01.2022, 22:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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dont expect that even if china will buy smth at russia, it will pay same price. most probably they will pay waaaaay lower than eu

Beyond any shadow of a doubt, Vlad, this shows how little you really know !


Apart from sea freight, the Russians use rail freight via the Trans-Siberian that drops down to Beijing just after passing Irkutsk rather than continuing to Vladivostok. The Trans Siberian is essentially for freight, a freight train passes every 15 minutes or so, they have 1 locomotive in front, one in the middle and one at the end, so believe me, they are BIG trains.


In addition you have large Panamax sized vessels (50-60kt) leaving Black Sea ports via Suez to China.


Chinese pay better prices than the EU currently, they have realised it is more important to secure deliveries than quibble about price. In addition to this, the Chinese keep out of any external politics and don't lecture the Russian on what they can and can not do.
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  #1964  
Old 30.01.2022, 00:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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No money, no grain, oil or gas, excluding Russia from SWIFT is very double edged, they can sell all they want to the Chinese using other methods than SWIFT so whilst it sounds good, it's more like shooting yourself in the knee, or higher......
My hunch tells me that Putin may actually consider suspending use of SWIFT, as another strategic move.
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  #1965  
Old 30.01.2022, 06:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Chinese pay better prices than the EU currently, they have realised it is more important to secure deliveries than quibble about price. In addition to this, the Chinese keep out of any external politics and don't lecture the Russian on what they can and can not do.
You clearly show a lack of basic understanding of global trade. As soon as Russia is/if switched off from SWIFT, it's only big customer will be China. You can check the other country switched off from SWIFT and trading with China, how successful and booming they are. Just as an example, they currently sell oil at a discount of between 30% and 50% PRECISELY because they have no other option.

Cutting of from SWIFT is the financial version of a nuclear bomb and for all the talk of an alternative system do not underestimate how huge of an impact this would certainly have.
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  #1966  
Old 30.01.2022, 07:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Salesman never get good rest.
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  #1967  
Old 30.01.2022, 10:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You clearly show a lack of basic understanding of global trade. As soon as Russia is/if switched off from SWIFT, it's only big customer will be China. You can check the other country switched off from SWIFT and trading with China, how successful and booming they are. Just as an example, they currently sell oil at a discount of between 30% and 50% PRECISELY because they have no other option.

Cutting of from SWIFT is the financial version of a nuclear bomb and for all the talk of an alternative system do not underestimate how huge of an impact this would certainly have.

There are a lot of ways around SWIFT system, you just need to know how
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  #1968  
Old 30.01.2022, 10:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There are a lot of ways around SWIFT system, you just need to know how
Again, check how successful are the countries which are excluded from SWIFT. Workarounds come at a cost and the cost is, as mentioned, selling your natural resources at a heavy discount to usually a handful of risk-prone buyers and exclusion from the international markets. The combo of sanctions and SWIFT exclusion is extremely powerful, make no mistake.
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  #1969  
Old 30.01.2022, 10:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Again, check how successful are the countries which are excluded from SWIFT. Workarounds come at a cost and the cost is, as mentioned, selling your natural resources at a heavy discount to usually a handful of risk-prone buyers and exclusion from the international markets. The combo of sanctions and SWIFT exclusion is extremely powerful, make no mistake.
Again, check how the countries that are NOW excluded from SWIFT doing vis-a-vis gas export to EU - just to mention this one commodity.

The best is the statement of this German foreign minister - considering the sanctions against Nordstream 2 which is quote delivering gas TO Germany end quote.

Go ahead and sanction yourself.

LOL
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  #1970  
Old 30.01.2022, 11:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Beyond any shadow of a doubt, Vlad, this shows how little you really know !


Apart from sea freight, the Russians use rail freight via the Trans-Siberian that drops down to Beijing just after passing Irkutsk rather than continuing to Vladivostok. The Trans Siberian is essentially for freight, a freight train passes every 15 minutes or so, they have 1 locomotive in front, one in the middle and one at the end, so believe me, they are BIG trains.


In addition you have large Panamax sized vessels (50-60kt) leaving Black Sea ports via Suez to China.


Chinese pay better prices than the EU currently, they have realised it is more important to secure deliveries than quibble about price. In addition to this, the Chinese keep out of any external politics and don't lecture the Russian on what they can and can not do.
chinese will never pay better prices than EU to russia just because they have alternatives (for now) unlike russia
this is basic economics and none of your propagandist bravado can change this fact
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  #1971  
Old 30.01.2022, 11:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There are a lot of ways around SWIFT system, you just need to know how
ahha. bitcoins
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  #1972  
Old 30.01.2022, 11:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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My hunch tells me that Putin may actually consider suspending use of SWIFT, as another strategic move.
putin might be good tactic, but as strategist... he is loosing
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  #1973  
Old 30.01.2022, 11:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Again, check how the countries that are NOW excluded from SWIFT doing vis-a-vis gas export to EU - just to mention this one commodity.
None of the current gas suppliers of Europe is excluded from SWIFT, you're mistaken.

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considering the sanctions against Nordstream 2 which is quote delivering gas TO Germany end quote.
First of all, Nordstream 2 is not operational, maybe double-check your sources. There's assurance from Putin that it's ready, but this was more of an attempt to preempt alternatives to it, which will happen in any case irrelevant of what Russia wants.

You're also confusing export sanctions and SWIFT which are separate measures. Unquestionably, they work best in tandem and if indeed Russia is excluded from SWIFT and sanctions on gas and oil are applied there are multiple options for Germany. To name a few:
1. Russia will start receiving funds in international banks subject to pre-approval and will stay there blocked until sanctions are lifted (similar to Iran these days when they buy grain on the international markets and sell other agricultural commodities)
2. Germany will diversify it's supply, gas is available from multiple other reliable sources.

Putting it in other words, excluding Russia hits the Russians significantly more than it hits any of its customers in Europe. By a magnitude.
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  #1974  
Old 30.01.2022, 22:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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None of the current gas suppliers of Europe is excluded from SWIFT, you're mistaken.
I guess some comprehension issues here...

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  #1975  
Old 30.01.2022, 23:42
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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  #1976  
Old 31.01.2022, 10:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

What do you think about Boris Johnson and Liz Truss going in to 'discuss' with Putin. Do they have a mandate from NATO???

So much dirty money hiding in London, and so many massive donations to the Conservative Party, and individual Ministers and MPs- so it seems a bit ridh to say they are going to threaten Putin with sanctions. Plus after the Bunga-Bunga parties at the Umbrian mansions of Russian Oligarchs in the past, they probabla got enough footage to blackmail him forever
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  #1977  
Old 31.01.2022, 10:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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What do you think about Boris Johnson and Liz Truss going in to 'discuss' with Putin. Do they have a mandate from NATO???
I think the dirty money in London will continue to flow irrelevant of sanctions, probably even more so in case of sanctions as they are safer in London vs. Moscow

I also think the UK has no choice but to be tough on Putin, the multiple cases of very intentionally public executions of Russian opposition figures in the UK are pushing the public opinion in that direction. Moreover, the UK is nowhere near as exposed to Russia economically as, say, Germany is and it is likely to follow the direction set by the White House.

For me personally, the next moves of Biden are the critical bellwether that will determine the overall course of action vs. Russia. Europe has no choice but to more or less follow that direction
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  #1978  
Old 31.01.2022, 10:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Remember this

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-perugia-party

the man could hardly remember his name, could stand upright, and had no luggage ...

He made Lebedev a Peer in the Lords too- stinks.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ope...-page-3-model/

Last edited by JackieH; 31.01.2022 at 10:59.
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  #1979  
Old 31.01.2022, 11:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Remember this

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-perugia-party

the man could hardly remember his name, could stand upright, and had no luggage ...

He made Lebedev a Peer in the Lords too- stinks.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ope...-page-3-model/
The "good" news is that this is already out so in a sense damage is already done and is factored in. "Luckily" for BJ he has so many of these misdemeanors that they are now part of his overall character and adding one or two more wouldn't change the perception the voters have on him.
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  #1980  
Old 31.01.2022, 11:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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ahha. bitcoins
Cash-settlement in Swiss Francs.

Hey, it worked for Iran ;-)
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