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-   -   World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? (https://www.englishforum.ch/international-affairs-politics/202409-world-war-3-just-local-spat-ukraine.html)

marton 03.03.2014 19:13

World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Russia's Black Sea Fleet has told Ukrainian forces in Crimea to surrender by 3am or face a military assault.

One of the few time I agree with Merkel "Vladimir Putin has lost the plot, says German chancellor, Angela Merkel describes Russian president as 'out of touch with reality' after urging him to back down from Crimea occupation"

kngavl 03.03.2014 19:33

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

17:18: Interfax-Russia news agency is now quoting a spokesman for the Russian Black Sea Fleet denying reports about an ultimatum being issued to the Ukrainian troops in Crimea. "This is nonsense", a spokesman said. "We are getting used to daily reports accusing us of preparing to military action against our Ukrainian colleagues. We will not be pushed towards a head-on confrontation."
- BBC

Hell if anyone knows what is even happening now, not to mention what will happen tomorrow.

Slaphead 03.03.2014 19:38

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
This is point where I generally check a map to find out how far I'm away from whatever's brewing.

Not quite far enough is the answer this time.

awayaway 03.03.2014 19:40

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Given the fact that Britain and the US signed a treaty in 1994 pledging to protect Ukraine and all its borders in return for giving up nuclear weapons...seems like there could be a big problem ahead.

Phil_MCR 03.03.2014 19:44

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by awayaway (Post 2102587)
Given the fact that Britain and the US signed a treaty in 1994 pledging to protect Ukraine and all its borders in return for giving up nuclear weapons...seems like there could be a big problem ahead.

Yeah. Hopefully, we will not get to see how much those words are worth.

Reb77Br 03.03.2014 19:51

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Maybe they'll find a way to get Putin back to the negotiating table, then let him take Ukraine anyway.

idefix 03.03.2014 20:20

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Apparently most of the Ukraine's military in Crimea has switched sides and now are with the Russians.

I can't blame the Russians for wanting to protect Crimea and its majority of Russian citizen.

https://scontent-a-fra.xx.fbcdn.net/...72050822_n.jpg

What's funny is that modern Ukraine has territories that were never Ukrainian at all, so hard to keep it together as it seems.

http://i.imgur.com/gkRUNpe.jpg


Where as the West should honestly STFU as they seem to have very short memory

http://i.imgur.com/0IrmEYc.jpg

marton 03.03.2014 20:37

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by idefix (Post 2102639)
Apparently most of the Ukraine's military in Crimea has switched sides and now are with the Russians.

I can't blame the Russians for wanting to protect Crimea and its majority of Russian citizen.



What's funny is that modern Ukraine has territories that were never Ukrainian at all, so hard to keep it together as it seems.



Where as the West should honestly STFU as they seem to have very short memory



About "I can't blame the Russians for wanting to protect Crimea and its majority of Russian citizen. "

Protect from what exactly?
Ukraine has been independent (including Crimea) for nearly a quarter century.

Phil_MCR 03.03.2014 20:42

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by marton (Post 2102664)
About "I can't blame the Russians for wanting to protect Crimea and its majority of Russian citizen. "

Protect from what exactly?
Ukraine has been independent (including Crimea) for nearly a quarter century.

I think he meant to say "I can't blame Russia for exploiting the current situation to extend its power and military footprint."

If they really wanted to protect Russian citizens, they could probably start with gay people and political dissidents on the mainland.

Tom1234 03.03.2014 20:57

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Reb77Br (Post 2102601)
Maybe they'll find a way to get Putin back to the negotiating table, then let him take Ukraine anyway.

Like Hitler and Sudetenland you mean?

Faltrad 03.03.2014 21:02

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Phil_MCR (Post 2102673)
I think he meant to say "I can't blame Russia for exploiting the current situation to extend its power and military footprint."
d.

That applies to the NATO in the exact same way. Humiliating Russia is in itself an understandable goal from an atlantist perspective, but one can't blame Russia for reacting to it. Try financing an antiamerican revolution in the Caribean area, you'll see what happens.... oh wait, That's Cuba. :D

Putin is putting himself in a strong position for whatever comes. Russians want to negociate with inferiors, same technics as the Americans. They all learn with the same books.

TiMow 03.03.2014 21:08

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by awayaway (Post 2102587)
Given the fact that Britain and the US signed a treaty in 1994 pledging to protect Ukraine and all its borders in return for giving up nuclear weapons...seems like there could be a big problem ahead.

Britain, once had a treaty with Poland, too, many years ago.

cannut 03.03.2014 21:16

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by awayaway (Post 2102587)
Given the fact that Britain and the US signed a treaty in 1994 pledging to protect Ukraine and all its borders in return for giving up nuclear weapons...seems like there could be a big problem ahead.



Yea right Hahahahaha:rolleyes:

Faltrad 03.03.2014 21:23

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by marton (Post 2102664)
About "I can't blame the Russians for wanting to protect Crimea and its majority of Russian citizen. "

Protect from what exactly?
Ukraine has been independent (including Crimea) for nearly a quarter century.

Fundamental issue: Russian speaking population in Crimea are Russians, the other Russian speaking in Ukraine are Ukrainians who happen to speak russian. Citizenship and nationality are distinct in the ex-soviet area. Post soviet Russia accepted a very nice compromise with Kiev: Crimea is ukrenian, but with large autonomy as a region and kept distinction between Russians in Ukraine and Ukrainians speaking russian. Not all the same over there...

crazygringo 03.03.2014 21:26

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Americans are utterly exhaused after nearly 25 years of fake wars and chasing our tails in the desert and Africa. in other words, there will be absolutely zero US involvement in Ukraine's situation with Russia beyond the usual "talks" and "diplomacy". which is fine by me, we could use a couple of decades of isolationism, let Russia continue on the inevitable path it is already on.

marton 03.03.2014 21:38

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Faltrad (Post 2102708)
Fundamental issue: Russian speaking population in Crimea are Russians, the other Russian speaking in Ukraine are Ukrainians who happen to speak russian. Citizenship and nationality are distinct in the ex-soviet area. Post soviet Russia accepted a very nice compromise with Kiev: Crimea is ukrenian, but with large autonomy as a region and kept distinction between Russians in Ukraine and Ukrainians speaking russian. Not all the same over there...

Sure but I do not understand what changed? Why do the "Russians" in Crimea now need protection when it all worked OK for a quarter century?

cannut 03.03.2014 21:40

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
merkel should be more concerned about theme here :eek: https://libcom.org/news/neo-nazis-fa...raine-23012014

cannut 03.03.2014 21:43

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by marton (Post 2102723)
Sure but I do not understand what changed? Why do the "Russians" in Crimea now need protection when it all worked OK for a quarter century?


Look at post #17:msnsarcastic:

marton 03.03.2014 21:45

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by idefix (Post 2102639)
Apparently most of the Ukraine's military in Crimea has switched sides and now are with the Russians.

I can't blame the Russians for wanting to protect Crimea and its majority of Russian citizen.



What's funny is that modern Ukraine has territories that were never Ukrainian at all, so hard to keep it together as it seems.


Where as the West should honestly STFU as they seem to have very short memory

http://i.imgur.com/0IrmEYc.jpg

I do not really understand the relevance of this cartoon? Ukraine had a successful "Arab Spring" type revolution which is now threatened by the Russian military marching in? Which of the other countries had anything similar? And what is the relevance of Pakistan? :)

cannut 03.03.2014 21:52

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by idefix (Post 2102639)
Apparently most of the Ukraine's military in Crimea has switched sides and now are with the Russians.

I can't blame the Russians for wanting to protect Crimea and its majority of Russian citizen.

https://scontent-a-fra.xx.fbcdn.net/...72050822_n.jpg

What's funny is that modern Ukraine has territories that were never Ukrainian at all, so hard to keep it together as it seems.

http://i.imgur.com/gkRUNpe.jpg


Where as the West should honestly STFU as they seem to have very short memory

http://i.imgur.com/0IrmEYc.jpg


here pashosh groan this ,from your own news paper ;)http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/1.577114

Faltrad 03.03.2014 22:08

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by marton (Post 2102723)
Sure but I do not understand what changed? Why do the "Russians" in Crimea now need protection when it all worked OK for a quarter century?

It's eastern Europe, nothing is about "working". You are thinking anglosaxon. It's about being. Beong Ukrainian is as important to russian speakers in the east and south as it is to ukrainian speakers in north-west. Russian Crimean care about being Russian, fine if they can be autonomous within Ukraine as long as Kiev stays far away and shuts up. As soon as they feel questioned as Russians as it is the case in a revolution that is far more nationalistic than the western media want to report, especially since the far right managed to take over the milice force in The north-west. They are not all neonazis antisemits but they are numerous enough to make it in the Crimean general public's representation of Kiev's new power.

My connexions are Crimean jewish and russian speaking from Odessa, so this is what obsesses them and they fear this new power in Kiev. Russia is their best friend..... objectively their best friend. They are emotional about it, so they might wel exagerate the danger from Kiev, but the feeling is real. The interests of Moscow to teach a lesson to the NATO agents "helping" the pro-Kiev, like they've been doing since day one of the end of the soviet time, does the rest (sorry, German syntax).

Crimea is an unsolved rest of Khrushchov soviet time. It is still a provisory situation in a Russian brain, bit of course, no ukrainian brain will agree with that. The only reason it "worked" for so long is communism before 1991 and cultural politics with Russian speaking Ukrainians during the difficult years of the compromise. I've heard the present status is only sealed until 2042, it is a time bomb if the western countries play the Ukraine against Russia.

MusicChick 03.03.2014 22:13

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom1234 (Post 2102685)
Like Hitler and Sudetenland you mean?

Good point. Munich all over again.

En plus, which is more relevant, large part of Ukraine used to be Czechoslovakian and was stolen and annexed to USSR.

I hope things work out for the local people.

Assassin 03.03.2014 22:47

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
I've studied this part of the world.

This is more like a family squabble than some kind of prequel to war. Crimea is vital to the Russian's Black Sea Fleet. The Russians leased their bases from the Ukrainians, and stationed nuclear capable Sukhois Su-24 jets at Gvardeyskoye. When in 2009 the Uktrainians instructed the Russians to leave the facilities by 2017, the Russians expanded their facilities and ignored all previously agreed agreements.

Russia doesn't see Ukraine as a foreign nation; it was the same country, same traditions and with both the EU and NATO courting Kiev to be more western oriented, Russia felt like it was marrying one of it's children off to undesirables.

I'm not condoning anything, just trying to put this sequence of events into proportion. Was it coincidence that the Crimean occupation happened a week after the Winter Olympics closed? Absolutely not. Russia saw months ago that Yanukovych wasn't going to be able to hold power, so they prepared for everything that is happening now to ensure that their influence remained in Kiev.

With NATO having won Turkey to its ranks a few decades ago, the Soviets felt exposed, especially as Iran was also pro-west at the time with the Americans having bought the Shah. The Crimean Peninsula's tactical position cannot be overstated. Russia is flexing its might, because it cannot allow western influenced nations to set up shop right on the doorstep. Just in the same way that the US didn't tolerate Soviet missiles on Cuba back in the 60s.

awayaway 03.03.2014 22:48

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cannut (Post 2102707)
Yea right Hahahahaha:rolleyes:

If you don't believe this true, try to google 'The Budapest Memorandom 1994'. They promised to protect the Ukraine and it's borders.

Kiev are now calling on Britain and the US to intervene.

Assassin 03.03.2014 22:53

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by awayaway (Post 2102810)
If you don't believe this true, try to google 'The Budapest Memorandom 1994'. They promised to protect the Ukraine and it's borders.

Kiev are now calling on Britain and the US to intervene.

Britain and the US are powerless to intervene either strategically or diplomatically. Putin has all the cards and knows full well that the west can only threaten with sanctions. At which point supplies of natural gas and raw minerals may no longer head west.

Wollishofener 03.03.2014 23:01

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cannut (Post 2102727)
merkel should be more concerned about theme here :eek: https://libcom.org/news/neo-nazis-fa...raine-23012014

Any Russian action against Ukraine will help NeoNazis in Ukraine AND in Russia, and that in turn will help NeoNazis in Germany. And Mrs Merkel is the ideal negotiator as she speaks excellently Russian and Putin speaks excellently German. If somebody has a chance at present it is the German Federal Chancellor

treesarehalal 03.03.2014 23:07

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Assassin (Post 2102817)
Britain and the US are powerless to intervene either strategically or diplomatically. Putin has all the cards and knows full well that the west can only threaten with sanctions. At which point supplies of natural gas and raw minerals may no longer head west.

Yikes! There's ignorant and then there's just plain..I mean...ignorant. Russia doesn't have to trade with the west or anyone else but it's already turning into an economic basket case, buoyed solely by high energy prices. As those energy prices dip, Russia will become more and more dependent on stable supply.

crazygringo 03.03.2014 23:09

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Assassin (Post 2102817)
Britain and the US are powerless to intervene either strategically or diplomatically. Putin has all the cards and knows full well that the west can only threaten with sanctions. At which point supplies of natural gas and raw minerals may no longer head west.

I can't speak for the UK, but the US does not need Russia for nat gas. Europe needs Russia (and Ukraine, for that matter, for the pipelines), but not the US.

cannut 03.03.2014 23:11

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by awayaway (Post 2102810)
If you don't believe this true, try to google 'The Budapest Memorandom 1994'. They promised to protect the Ukraine and it's borders.

Kiev are now calling on Britain and the US to intervene.


Yes I know its true , the promises .But the doing it I lough at;)

marton 03.03.2014 23:17

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Assassin (Post 2102817)
Britain and the US are powerless to intervene either strategically or diplomatically. Putin has all the cards and knows full well that the west can only threaten with sanctions. At which point supplies of natural gas and raw minerals may no longer head west.

About "At which point supplies of natural gas and raw minerals may no longer head west."

Due to the mild winter and early spring the natural gas threat may not be so significant; I am sure there are also gas reserves in the West.

On the other side the Russians are burning up their central bank foreign reserves supporting the rouble so turning off supplies of natural gas and raw minerals also turns off the foreign money tap so could also be a shot in own foot?

Russia's central bank hiked its key lending rate today to 7% from 5.5% but the rouble still fell circa 2%.

cannut 03.03.2014 23:32

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by marton (Post 2102835)
About "At which point supplies of natural gas and raw minerals may no longer head west."

Due to the mild winter and early spring the natural gas threat may not be so significant; I am sure there are also gas reserves in the West.

On the other side the Russians are burning up their central bank foreign reserves supporting the rouble so turning off supplies of natural gas and raw minerals also turns off the foreign money tap so could also be a shot in own foot?

Russia's central bank hiked its key lending rate today to 7% from 5.5% but the rouble still fell circa 2%.


Start "Fracking" ;)

Wollishofener 03.03.2014 23:36

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Assassin (Post 2102817)
Britain and the US are powerless to intervene either strategically or diplomatically. Putin has all the cards and knows full well that the west can only threaten with sanctions. At which point supplies of natural gas and raw minerals may no longer head west.

The West up to now apparently has NOT threatened with sanctions. Mr Putin however should bear in mind that to play rough too much, will push his country into isolation, and also that such an action may have consequences in Central Asia, consequences unwanted by Moscow and Delhi. Good it would be for Pakistan as the USA and Britain had then to court Rawalpindi-Islamabad, good for Iran for various reasons, and fairly good for Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan whose importance will grow. New games and new cards ;)

and if we look at a Russia possibly engulfed by crisis, it is interesting to look at the exporters of natural gas

1Russia199,900,000,000
2Norway99,750,000,000
3Qatar94,810,000,000
4Canada92,400,000,000
5Netherlands57,750,000,000
6Algeria55,280,000,000
7Indonesia42,330,000,000
8United States32,200,000,000
9Malaysia30,790,000,000
10Australia24,700,000,000
11Trinidad and Tobago20,410,000,000
12Egypt18,320,000,000
13Turkmenistan18,000,000,000
14Germany16,190,000,000
15Nigeria15,990,000,000
16United Kingdom15,650,000,000
17Uzbekistan15,200,000,000
18Bolivia11,720,000,000
19Oman11,540,000,000
20Libya9,890,000,000
21Brunei8,810,000,000
22Burma8,290,000,000
23Kazakhstan8,100,000,000
24Iran7,870,000,000
25United Arab Emirates7,010,000,000
26Azerbaijan5,930,000,000
27Austria5,439,000,000
28Equatorial Guinea4,720,000,000
29Peru3,590,000,000
30Mozambique3,500,000,000
31Denmark3,478,000,000
32China3,210,000,000
33France2,945,000,000
34Ukraine2,800,000,000
36Spain1,152,000,000
37Argentina880,000,000http://www.indexmundi.com/img/g.gif38Slovakia808,000,000http://www.indexmundi.com/img/g.gif39Turkey649,000,000http://www.indexmundi.com/img/g.gif40Croatia439,000,000http://www.indexmundi.com/img/g.gif41Yemen420,000,000http://www.indexmundi.com/img/b.gif42Hungary227,000,000http://www.indexmundi.com/img/g.gif43Mexico200,000,000http://www.indexmundi.com/img/g.gif

>> Algeria is on rank 6 but may profit from upheavals around the Russian Empire. Egypt at rank 12 may well profit as well. Yemen, at rank 41 only now, but with vast reserves, may profit in a big way. All three countries have had close political and economic relations with the USSR, and even Egypt in reality retained much of them, but that will not hinder the TRIO to profit from the situation. General Field Marshal as-Sisi in Cairo will play the game as best as possible.

st2lemans 03.03.2014 23:48

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Between this and the EU menace, I guess Switzerland will have to rethink the stupid idea of retiring the nukes. ;)

Tom

st2lemans 03.03.2014 23:53

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TiMow (Post 2102699)
Britain, once had a treaty with Poland, too, many years ago.

The mess 100 years ago also came about because of treaties. ;)

Perhaps the latest Swiss vote will start a new trend in breaking them. :D

Tom

marton 03.03.2014 23:59

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cannut (Post 2102848)
Start "Fracking" ;)

Too old mate :)

Oh, "Fracking" :confused:

Wollishofener 04.03.2014 00:14

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by st2lemans (Post 2102861)
The mess 100 years ago also came about because of treaties. ;)

Perhaps the latest Swiss vote will start a new trend in breaking them. :D

Tom

Sorry but wrong term. In modern diplomacy it is described as renegotiating and not as breaking. just as the war ministries of the past long ago became Ministries of Defence --- Correct language is sooooo important :p

lost_inbroad 04.03.2014 00:47

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
It seems like the old saying of history repeating itself. I don't like this situation one bit, as there are strong indicators of yet another major conflict which could possibly rattle the global economy even more.

Wollishofener 04.03.2014 01:50

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lost_inbroad (Post 2102899)
It seems like the old saying of history repeating itself. I don't like this situation one bit, as there are strong indicators of yet another major conflict which could possibly rattle the global economy even more.

Czar Vladimir I of the dynasty of the Putinov does not care about such details as the global economy. ;)

Here the new Russian Empire

Karte http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...ion%29.svg.png

Carefully watch the EASTERN end of it

and here the idol of Vladimir I


and/or

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ljd2MLlkg6g
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ljd2MLlkg6g
--
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpEEw...AUvoeQSR5Nf6dr

and here his ideas about the Europe of the future

http://www.euratlas.net/history/euro...ntity_2344.jpg

Treverus 04.03.2014 03:48

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by awayaway (Post 2102587)
Given the fact that Britain and the US signed a treaty in 1994 pledging to protect Ukraine and all its borders in return for giving up nuclear weapons...seems like there could be a big problem ahead.

Quote:

Originally Posted by marton (Post 2102664)
About "I can't blame the Russians for wanting to protect Crimea and its majority of Russian citizen. "

Protect from what exactly?
Ukraine has been independent (including Crimea) for nearly a quarter century.

a) protect from what: Not sure if you are following the news, but while every German speaking newspaper loves to show pictures of Klitschko is the real thing brewing the rise of some ultra-nationalists who hate everything Russian, including the Russians living in Crimea as well as the Russian military stationed there. They are very likely to be part of the next government of Ukraine.
If we for one second take that western European glasses off is it pretty obvious: it is not some evil master plan by Putin. He is a strong guy but that is based on his "patriotic" positions. Even though everyone thinks he is some sort of dictator would it be political suicide for him and his entire party if they lose the black see fleet. Nobody in the west seems to understand just how important of a symbol it is.


b) We seem to have very different ideas of "independent" - they had some puppet president for most of the time and an utterly incompetent and corrupt Timoshenko regime for the rest... they never confronted the Russians in the country or Russian interests. Now they do and we see what that independence really was...


Bottom line: the world is watching, especially those other countries owning nukes. Who would now really agree to downsize their arsenal in exchange of any sort of security promise? It looks like WMDs are still the best bet so I for one can fully understand any country trying to secure some. Honestly speaking did the Iraq war or Afghanistan have little consequences for other countries. Few lessons to be learned except of "don't become the US' scapegoat" and "don't be a country run by crazy Taleban". This one however has quite some potential for leaders around the world from "the west won't really pull the trigger if you need them, don't believe their promises" to "nukes mean safety". It will make the world a less secure and stable place.

greenmount 04.03.2014 09:31

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Treverus (Post 2102925)
is the real thing brewing the rise of some ultra-nationalists who hate everything Russian, including the Russians living in Crimea as well as the Russian military stationed there. They are very likely to be part of the next government of Ukraine..

....as opposed to Jobbik in Hungary, Front National in France....or maybe UKIP in the UK?:D


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