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  #181  
Old 20.07.2014, 16:35
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

Obama already ruled out any type of military action and Merkel agreed with Putin to have an investigation, hardly fighting words.

In any case, US Intelligence points to Russia supplying the BUK directly:

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Reports that rebels had possession of a Buk-M1 came as early as June 29, when separatists overran a Ukrainian armed-forces base in the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine. The rebels boasted of seizing control of the weapons system in a Russian news report.
The counterintelligence chief at Ukraine's national security service, Vitaly Nayda, said the reports didn't overly worry his government, as Ukrainian armed forces had rendered that equipment inoperative in March, around the time when the fighting in the area kicked off. The missile system remains on the base, but all the warheads had been removed, Mr. Nayda said.


The U.S. picked up the first intelligence more than a month ago about Russia providing increasingly advanced weapons, including air defense systems, to the separatists.


Earlier this month, U.S. intelligence agencies concluded that Moscow had supplied pro-Russian separatists with two older SA-11s, which the U.S. believes were moved across the border from Russia along with the tanks and other equipment.
But the U.S., which detected the shipments, didn't think that the two SA-11 systems were operational.


After the shoot down on July 14 of a Ukrainian cargo plane at an altitude of over 20,000 feet, the U.S. assessment began to change, and the U.S. concluded that either Moscow sent the separatists a new and operational SA-11 or repaired one of the two inoperable units which the separatists already possessed, a senior U.S. official said.


The U.S. believes all of the SA-11s in the hands of the separatists were supplied by Moscow.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-i...ash-1405816389
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  #182  
Old 20.07.2014, 17:24
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

Nobody is white here.
Russia signed an agreement to respect Ukraine's borders and guess what!

Russia has also shot down a domestic airliner; see earlier in this thread for details.

About "Ukrainian ATC sent a passenger jet right into the middle of a known warzone" No, the route was set long before this aircraft entered Ukrainian airspace on a known and established route with other civilian aircraft following the same route both in front of and behind this aircraft.
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  #183  
Old 20.07.2014, 18:31
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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Nobody is white here.
Russia signed an agreement to respect Ukraine's borders and guess what!
If you mean Budapest Memorandum then it has never been ratified (not even by Ukraine itself) and has no legal effect.
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  #184  
Old 20.07.2014, 18:35
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

East Europe countries ran into NATO's arms once the Iron Curtain fell, exactly because of situations like what is happening in Ukraine right now. I'm sure if you asked any East Europe country to leave NATO right now they would turn white as a ghost.



The pro-Russian rebels shot a transport plane flying at 6,000 meters only 2 days earlier, maybe not enough time to assess what weapons the rebels actually possessed and what they were capable of. The Malaysian flight was the first plane of any kind to be downed at 10,000 meters, so it's not like it was something that was going on for a long time and everyone knew about it.


...except for the fact that the two leaders with the greatest clout (Merkel and Obama) are shirking away from any hard-line statements, and have ruled out military support of any kind. As for public opinion towards Russia, that's been sinking faster than the Lusitania since Putin grabbed Crimea and interfering in East Ukraine in the last year. I think Putin is doing a better job of ruining Russia's image abroad than the US or EU could ever do


http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/07/09/...is-in-ukraine/

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/10/wo...inds.html?_r=0
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  #185  
Old 20.07.2014, 19:02
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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If you mean Budapest Memorandum then it has never been ratified (not even by Ukraine itself) and has no legal effect.

Budapest Memorandum is binding in international law.
Look here!
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  #186  
Old 20.07.2014, 19:15
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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Obama already ruled out any type of military action and Merkel agreed with Putin to have an investigation, hardly fighting words.

In any case, US Intelligence points to Russia supplying the BUK directly:


http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-i...ash-1405816389

AFAIK, Putin isn't stupid - you don't end up and stay where he is just by greasing the right gears (it does help, though).
So, I really wonder what drove him or who advised him to supply the BUK-missiles (and all kinds of other stuff we may not be aware of) to these people.

OTOH, as Obama has already ruled out any open military engagement, perhaps his line of thinking is basically "So what, let's just see how far we'll get?"

After all, nobody really complains when the US supports rebel forces to destabilize an otherwise stable country for increased political and economical influence....

The problem is really that the US, with all the leaks of the recent years (cable-gate, Snowden etc.pp) has lost the moral high-ground it previously had in the minds of lots of western (and perhaps eastern, too) people.
Whether that moral superiority was actual or only perceived doesn't matter anymore, because in any case, it allowed them to get away with a lot of stuff that the former USSR didn't get away with.
(See discussion about the various passenger plane shoot down incidents of both sides).
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  #187  
Old 20.07.2014, 19:27
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

In case anyone had any hopes for a peaceful death for the passengers:

http://www.20min.ch/ausland/news/sto...oden--17114214

Read: passengers got unconscious immediately because of rapide depressurization and hull-failure, most likely woke up at 4000m, and could watch themselves and fellow passengers fall to death for a minute or two (or however long it takes to reach the surface from that height).

That is really gruesome.
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  #188  
Old 20.07.2014, 20:22
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

I don't argue that no plane has ever been shot down at 10,000 meters, I meant in the context of East Ukraine it was a first that a plane had been shot down at that altitude. All previous planes in that area were downed under 3,000 meters which is in the range of shoulder-fired missiles.

The Ukraine transport plane that was shot down 2 days at 6,000 meters was the first to be shot down over Ukraine above the 3,000m range. So the rebels didn't show their capabilities to down high-altitude aircraft until only 2 days prior to downing the civilian flight.
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  #189  
Old 20.07.2014, 20:27
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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it was a first that a plane had been shot down at that altitude. All previous planes in that area were downed under 3,000 meters which is in the range of shoulder-fired missiles.

The Ukraine transport plane that was shot down 2 days at 6,000 meters was the first to be shot down over Ukraine above the 3,000m range.
Umm, aren't you contradicting yourself?

Tom
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  #190  
Old 20.07.2014, 20:34
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

The black boxes have been recovered by rebel leaders and they've committed to handing them over to the International authorities

Linky
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  #191  
Old 20.07.2014, 20:35
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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Umm, aren't you contradicting yourself?

Tom
My wording is bad today What I am trying to say, is that all planes in that area were downed at 3,000m. Then suddenly two days before the Malaysian flight, a transport was downed at 6,000m and then the Malaysian flight was the first in that area to be shot down at the altitude of 10,000m
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  #192  
Old 20.07.2014, 20:37
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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The black boxes have been recovered by rebel leaders and they've committed to handing them over to the International authorities

Linky
Good news, if verified. Shame about the rest of the stuff they've allegedly pilfered.
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  #193  
Old 20.07.2014, 21:22
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

About "every SAM system automatically asks the operator which country it is operating in, and consults the Guinness Book of Records before deciding whether or not it will hit a target at the requested altitude"

1. And what does the operator reply? and how truthfully?

2. Apropos of nothing; the SAM battery that shot down Gary Powers also shot down one of their own MIGs at the same time. The Russian pilot unfortunately did not survive.

About "The Dutch press are now pressing the case for NATO to invade" So what? Do you believe NATO strategy is driven by extreme newspapers
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  #194  
Old 20.07.2014, 21:24
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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The black boxes have been recovered by rebel leaders and they've committed to handing them over to the International authorities

Linky
Thanks for the link but where does it say "they've committed to handing them over to the International authorities"
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  #195  
Old 20.07.2014, 21:39
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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Thanks for the link but where does it say "they've committed to handing them over to the International authorities"
Is the international commission already formed? What countries are on it?
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  #196  
Old 20.07.2014, 21:47
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

And in other developments, as people condemn locals for rifling through the personal belongings of the dead passengers, this happens....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5603622.html
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  #197  
Old 20.07.2014, 21:49
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

Yes, I am trying to say that 48 hours is a short period of time to assess what kind of missiles they have and to start re-routing traffic based on that. If planes were being downed on a regular basis at 10,000m then of course commercial flights shouldn't be going there, but this all happened kind of quickly.




Actually, the BUK does plug into a larger radar system that can see commercial flights. I don't know why the rebels didn't do that, maybe they don't have one available.

But for under 100CHF you can buy a small gadget that tracks all flights in your area by reading the planes transponders:

http://hackaday.com/2013/05/23/liste...-raspberry-pi/

There's a whole network of these that make up flight-tracking websites like flightradar24:
http://www.flightradar24.com/46.95,7.47/7

But anyway, yes, for properly trained people using this system it should be fairly easy to tell the difference between a commercial flight and a military one.
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  #198  
Old 20.07.2014, 21:50
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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And in other developments, as people condemn locals for rifling through the personal belongings of the dead passengers, this happens....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5603622.html
That's horrible, they should fire that reporter.
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  #199  
Old 20.07.2014, 22:06
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The flight data recorders will probably confirm that the aircraft suffered from a tremendous explosion but will not reveal what caused the explosion, i.e. air to air or surface to air missiles.

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The black boxes have been recovered by rebel leaders and they've committed to handing them over to the International authorities

Linky
Yep....

The Russians have downed civil airliners. The US as well. And more recently... the Ukrainians !

So, quite frankly they are all as guilty as hell. And all equally hypocritical.



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Nobody is white here.
Russia signed an agreement to respect Ukraine's borders and guess what!

Russia has also shot down a domestic airliner; see earlier in this thread for details.

About "Ukrainian ATC sent a passenger jet right into the middle of a known warzone" No, the route was set long before this aircraft entered Ukrainian airspace on a known and established route with other civilian aircraft following the same route both in front of and behind this aircraft.

Last edited by 3Wishes; 20.07.2014 at 22:14. Reason: merging successive posts
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Old 20.07.2014, 23:00
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

Had the missile been fired by Ukrainian forces I'm sure Russia would have provided evidence already.

That's how the surveillance works on US side:
arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2014/07/how-us-satellites-pinpointed-source-of-missile-that-shot-down-airliner/
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