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  #201  
Old 20.07.2014, 23:30
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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Had the missile been fired by Ukrainian forces I'm sure Russia would have provided evidence already.

That's how the surveillance works on US side:
arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2014/07/how-us-satellites-pinpointed-source-of-missile-that-shot-down-airliner/
Who else except Russia has the ability to provide evidence? Have US or China provided any evidence?
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  #202  
Old 20.07.2014, 23:52
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

Very interesting article !!

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Had the missile been fired by Ukrainian forces I'm sure Russia would have provided evidence already.

That's how the surveillance works on US side:
arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2014/07/how-us-satellites-pinpointed-source-of-missile-that-shot-down-airliner/
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  #203  
Old 21.07.2014, 00:50
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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That's horrible, they should fire that reporter.
In his defense, he stopped himself and excused live on TV.

I imagine, he got carried away and realized only after a few seconds that nothing good could come from it.
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  #204  
Old 21.07.2014, 01:48
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

This is absolutely horrible... What could be done to stop this? When I see the images from Ukraine, they are unbelievably cruel. Dead people, injured people, people crying, damaged buildings. For us this is very close to home.
Russia is too big for NATO, and if attacked, the hell will come to Europe. I hope this madness is not going to happen.
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  #205  
Old 21.07.2014, 01:50
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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I hope this madness is not going to happen.
With the likes of Obama, Cameron, Hollande and Merkel in charge?

Not likely!
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  #206  
Old 21.07.2014, 02:01
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

About "it is the West that stands to gain, disproportionately, from such an incident." How will the West gain exactly?

Nobody will attack Russia while they have thousands of active nuclear weapons.

About "their ability to attack the petrodollar by demanding all EU gas payments to be made in roubles or gold"
Paying in Roubles would be good for the EU; the value of the rouble has been dropping dramatically for over a year. Stopping payment in dollars would not be good for Russia while every month the dollar buys more roubles; it is like an automatic price increase.
Gold is not really a viable option; there is just not enough gold around.
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  #207  
Old 21.07.2014, 07:38
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

You seriously think if the west attack Russia then a nuclear strike would only be a last resort ??

Glad you aren't in charge of any armies
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  #208  
Old 21.07.2014, 09:07
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

Look at the chart at the bottom showing the routes take by airlines in the preceding 7 days. I think euro control or whoever is in control have to have a look at how this is organized. You can't leave it to airlines to decide this. Some didn't fly over the zone, but most did including popular ones from Zurich like Singapore airlines, emirates, Lufthansa, Thai:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-981784.html
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  #209  
Old 21.07.2014, 10:12
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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And in other developments, as people condemn locals for rifling through the personal belongings of the dead passengers, this happens....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5603622.html

Good old sky, set the bar so low and consistently fail to reach it
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  #210  
Old 21.07.2014, 10:55
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

What is most un-credible is that with all the "eyes in the sky" over the zone - and I'm hinting at western reconnaissance (ehr..spying) satellites etc - nobody in-the-know had noticed a missile launcher or similar weapons (i.e. AACs). There are simply too many interests going on in the ukrainian tug-of-war between Russia and the US/NATO/EU block for the western block to simply choose to ignore local facts, data, intelligence, etc.
In one of the many interviews that can be found on the net, a local (whose allegiance to me was not evident) says something along the lines of "...now everybody understands what is happening here".
Logical question, as the romans would have it is "cui prodest?"...
Who, amongst those who have the means to publicly or covertly intervene, could have had the cynical interest in letting a similar act happen?
A gang of determined but technically incompetent (and probably drunk?) soldiers could not do this without some kind of important support, that would probably take some time to organize and in turn create information that could /should have been picked up by the intelligence gathering activity.
And this unfortunately raises the aforementioned and inconvenient "cui prodest" questions and I'm not sure I want to hear the answer, to be totally honest.
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  #211  
Old 21.07.2014, 11:04
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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A gang of determined but technically incompetent (and probably drunk?) soldiers could not do this without some kind of important support, that would probably take some time to organize and in turn create information that could /should have been picked up by the intelligence gathering activity.
And this unfortunately raises the aforementioned and inconvenient "cui prodest" questions and I'm not sure I want to hear the answer, to be totally honest.

Have you seen the average squaddie, they are not employed for there brains, so these weapons are designed so literally a child could use them, its perfectly plausible that someone got hold of one, turned it on, saw a blip on the screen and pressed that big red button
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  #212  
Old 21.07.2014, 11:07
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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In case anyone had any hopes for a peaceful death for the passengers:

http://www.20min.ch/ausland/news/sto...oden--17114214

Read: passengers got unconscious immediately because of rapide depressurization and hull-failure, most likely woke up at 4000m, and could watch themselves and fellow passengers fall to death for a minute or two (or however long it takes to reach the surface from that height).

That is really gruesome.
Assuming most passengers who did not die in the blast were in fact knocked out by the combination slap-kiss of high compression from the explosion, followed immediately by rapid depressurization, we need to consider average wake up time, say, at sea level.

This can be anywhere from 2 to 5 minutes. Add altitude to the scenario, with reduced O2 levels, and those times could reasonably be expected to increase.

99% of terminal velocity is reached in about 15 seconds, sooner at higher altitudes. Lets say 30 seconds for now.

Face down free fall [arms and legs out] sky diving presents a terminal velocity of ~195 km/h or 54 m/s

Such a velocity would cover 10,000 meters in 185 seconds, 3 minutes.

Those who may have awoke were quit likely in considerable physiological shock, so I would like to offer that most of the discomfort experienced by those lost would have happened in the split second the sound reached their ears.

The pilot and copilot perhaps had the highest chance of not being knocked out as theorized, with the locked cabin door for insulation. I would expect that if something struck the plane, it was tailing the plane, not on a head-on trajectory.

I slapped the article into google translate, .., I can't help but think there could have been a little lacking in the write-up. I am not super familar with the 20. Isn't it mostly pulp, fit for distraction during the ride to work/home?
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  #213  
Old 21.07.2014, 11:10
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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Have you seen the average squaddie, they are not employed for there brains, so these weapons are designed so literally a child could use them, its perfectly plausible that someone got hold of one, turned it on, saw a blip on the screen and pressed that big red button
I'm kind of the opinion that that is not too far removed from the truth.

I cannot see for the life of me where deliberately shooting down a civilian aircraft which was from a region that is in no way involved with the current conflict would have any advantage for anybody involved.
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  #214  
Old 21.07.2014, 11:13
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

As I mentioned before, many of the rebels have actually served in the Ukrainian armed forces before the revolution and some maybe even back in the soviet era. So it is quite likely that some of them are trained in the anti-aircraft missile systems as it is quite likely that such missile systems have been captured by the rebels from the Ukrainian army.

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What is most un-credible is that with all the "eyes in the sky" over the zone - and I'm hinting at western reconnaissance (ehr..spying) satellites etc - nobody in-the-know had noticed a missile launcher or similar weapons (i.e. AACs). There are simply too many interests going on in the ukrainian tug-of-war between Russia and the US/NATO/EU block for the western block to simply choose to ignore local facts, data, intelligence, etc.
In one of the many interviews that can be found on the net, a local (whose allegiance to me was not evident) says something along the lines of "...now everybody understands what is happening here".
Logical question, as the romans would have it is "cui prodest?"...
Who, amongst those who have the means to publicly or covertly intervene, could have had the cynical interest in letting a similar act happen?
A gang of determined but technically incompetent (and probably drunk?) soldiers could not do this without some kind of important support, that would probably take some time to organize and in turn create information that could /should have been picked up by the intelligence gathering activity.
And this unfortunately raises the aforementioned and inconvenient "cui prodest" questions and I'm not sure I want to hear the answer, to be totally honest.
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  #215  
Old 21.07.2014, 11:54
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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Have you seen the average squaddie, they are not employed for there brains, so these weapons are designed so literally a child could use them, its perfectly plausible that someone got hold of one, turned it on, saw a blip on the screen and pressed that big red button
Hm.
The russkis don't want to be blown up from friendly fire, if they can avoid it.
And they wouldn't want it to fall in enemy hands and easily aimed back at the motherland's air forces so probably once the rig has been properly set-up it is just a case of pressing the big red button.
BUT
You still need to power up the thing, check contacts, electronics & whatnot, have some kind of data feed and target acquisition from a separate radar vehicle or whatnot.
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  #216  
Old 21.07.2014, 12:24
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

Additional interesting - but sad - information
Here’s how whoever shot down MH17 could have mistaken the passenger flight for a fighter jet

WTF

P.
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  #217  
Old 21.07.2014, 12:27
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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Assuming most passengers who did not die in the blast were in fact knocked out by the combination slap-kiss of high compression from the explosion, followed immediately by rapid depressurization, we need to consider average wake up time, say, at sea level.

This can be anywhere from 2 to 5 minutes. Add altitude to the scenario, with reduced O2 levels, and those times could reasonably be expected to increase.

99% of terminal velocity is reached in about 15 seconds, sooner at higher altitudes. Lets say 30 seconds for now.

Face down free fall [arms and legs out] sky diving presents a terminal velocity of ~195 km/h or 54 m/s

Such a velocity would cover 10,000 meters in 185 seconds, 3 minutes.

Those who may have awoke were quit likely in considerable physiological shock, so I would like to offer that most of the discomfort experienced by those lost would have happened in the split second the sound reached their ears.

The pilot and copilot perhaps had the highest chance of not being knocked out as theorized, with the locked cabin door for insulation. I would expect that if something struck the plane, it was tailing the plane, not on a head-on trajectory.

I slapped the article into google translate, .., I can't help but think there could have been a little lacking in the write-up. I am not super familar with the 20. Isn't it mostly pulp, fit for distraction during the ride to work/home?
Thanks for the calculation. 20min quotes an article from a German tabloid. I didn't expect it to translate well with google, but I couldn't find an English-language source.
AFAIK, the plane didn't completely disintegrate until it hit the ground. As such, sinking-velocity might have been less than assumed in your calculation, allowing for longer airtime.
It's assumed the missle didn't hit the plane directly, but was reasonably close so that the hull disintegrated and the aircraft possibly broke into two parts.
Anything and anybody not strapped to their seat-belt was immediately sucked out (the expert speculates that even clothes were ripped-off), Goldfinger-style.
The expert in the article is quoted as believing the passengers might have woken up already at 4000m, when oxygen-levels reached acceptable readings again (the cool air might also likely reduce oxygen usage by the body and create a "wake-up" effect at the same time).
Given the circumstances, I don't expect fate had any mercy with them.

Unfortunately, there's a good chance that most of the phones will have been pilfered, so any last messages from the passengers will likely never reach their addressees.
(If, as you rightly speculate, they actually were in a state of mind to record anything - and even then, it might be better not to listen to or view these messages: it's horrible death as it is and there's no consolation in taking part in such a horror)

It was one of those "1 in a million" events that you unfortunately have to live with each time you board an aircraft.
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  #218  
Old 21.07.2014, 13:01
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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(If, as you rightly speculate, they actually were in a state of mind to record anything -
Sorry, my speculation is that they were likely not in a state to record anything, though I suppose there is a high enough chance that someone could have. Maybe.

As for the rest of it, I think it serves no purpose to over analyze what the average experience was, not on this forum, anyhow. Technically I believe the physics and physiology point to the majority of folks not suffering from the full terror of the event. [Most of] Those that may have been conscious, for not more than a minute tops.

So for now, I'm done with this line of thought. It puts heat and no light on the situation.
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  #219  
Old 21.07.2014, 13:22
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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Sorry, my speculation is that they were likely not in a state to record anything,
I'm sorry, this is what I wanted to say.
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  #220  
Old 21.07.2014, 13:44
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

Another very sad and frustrating development is that the Ukrainians, who had already refused a truce supposedly called by the rebels, are now pressing forward with an attack, according to BBC News just a few minutes ago, on Donetsk itself.

As the first corpses were loaded on to the refridgerated cars of the train, it was initially thought that the train would then bring the corpses to Donetsk but that is no longer possible as the train station is in an area close to where the Ukrainians are attacking.

Maybe the west should lay off the anti-Russian and anti-Putin rhetoric and themselves put pressure on the Ukrainians to stop all military action in order that a proper investigation is under way and all corpses and personal belongings of the passengers is secured.
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