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  #481  
Old 13.10.2015, 16:31
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

Almaz-Antey carried out two experiments simulating explosions near MH17. They determined the missile was an older BUK model 9M38 fired from an area under Ukrainian forces’ control, contesting the preliminary findings of the Dutch-led investigation.

https://www.rt.com/news/318505-almaz...eo-simulation/

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  #482  
Old 13.10.2015, 16:32
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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It was obvious from the day it was shot down what had happened: Russia supplied anti-aircraft BUK's in E.Ukraine. They had shot down a couple of Ukrainian Air Force planes in the days/weeks prior, then, whoops...

Accidents happen, but in this case Russia will NEVER admit to it, because they have consistently denied their military involvement in E.Ukraine, so now they have to stick to that story on non-involvement, no matter what.

Altho ultimately the blame lies with Russia for supplying and firing the BUK, there also needs to be considered that Ukraine should have shut down commercial air traffic over E.Ukraine, and/or the airlines themselves should have took the precaution to re-route their flight routes.

In the beginning of the war, only shoulder-fired anti-aircraft rockets were used by the pro-Russians, and they could not reach the altitude of commercial air traffic. But in the week or so before MH17, Ukrainian Air Force planes flying above 3,000m were suddenly (and surprisingly) being shot down by pro-Russians, and that was a clear sign that newer and more sophisticated forms of anti-aircraft weapons had been introduced on the Russian side. This was written in normal media outlets, no reason the airlines and aviation authoritiesdidn't know about this. Or maybe they were aware, but didn't react fast enough.

About "Accidents happen"


It was not an accident, it was incompetence or stupidity. Civil airliners are clearly recognised by these sysems due to their transponders.


The command control component automatically recognises "friendly" aircraft. The operator has to follow a process; it is not simply a case of pulling the trigger.
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  #483  
Old 13.10.2015, 16:34
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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Almaz-Antey carried out two experiments simulating explosions near MH17. They determined the missile was an older BUK model 9M38 fired from an area under Ukrainian forces’ control, contesting the preliminary findings of the Dutch-led investigation.

https://www.rt.com/news/318505-almaz...eo-simulation/

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  #484  
Old 13.10.2015, 16:41
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

We heard what Dutch are saying. This is what manufacturer of those missiles is saying with experiments. I am not concluding anything.

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  #485  
Old 13.10.2015, 17:02
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

So they're simulating the missile detonating just in front of the cockpit as it passes in an upward trajectory from starboard to port? I had always thought the missile penetrated the aircraft itself. I'm not an expert in missile systems, but is this the standard modus operandi for the BUK system? Just curious.
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  #486  
Old 13.10.2015, 17:05
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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Almaz-Antey carried out two experiments simulating explosions near MH17. They determined the missile was an older BUK model 9M38 fired from an area under Ukrainian forces’ control, contesting the preliminary findings of the Dutch-led investigation.
Please clearly explain how this contradicts the preliminary findings of the Dutch-led investigation.
The Dutch report states it was a 9M314 warhead on a 9M38 and they do not state from where it was fired but they do provide a diagram of the estimated launch zone.

Clearly demonstrates the stupidity of commenting on a report before it was published.
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  #487  
Old 13.10.2015, 17:10
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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So they're simulating the missile detonating just in front of the cockpit as it passes in an upward trajectory from starboard to port? I had always thought the missile penetrated the aircraft itself. I'm not an expert in missile systems, but is this the standard modus operandi for the BUK system? Just curious.
I just read the report.
Seems the missile is designed to explode near the aircraft and the body of the missile is designed to break up into thousands of pre-formed fragments.
The investigation found some these fragments in the aircraft, in some bodies and on the ground where the debris land. The shape and the composition of these fragments determines which missile was used.
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  #488  
Old 13.10.2015, 17:20
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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We heard what Dutch are saying. This is what manufacturer of those missiles is saying with experiments. I am not concluding anything.
No, "we" did not hear what the Dutch were saying. The stupid manufacturer commented on the report before it was issued and before the contents were known.

Obviously desperate to cover their a##es
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  #489  
Old 13.10.2015, 17:21
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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See that little green box in the bottom left corner... you know what that stands for right?
It means the information is being shared by a media outlet devoid of US/EU/NATO bias, which is a refreshing change for many of us living in the West.
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  #490  
Old 13.10.2015, 17:34
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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Almaz-Antey carried out two experiments simulating explosions near MH17. They determined the missile was an older BUK model 9M38 fired from an area under Ukrainian forces’ control, contesting the preliminary findings of the Dutch-led investigation.
The Russian state-owned arms manufacturer, who had not participated in the MH17 investigation, concludes by themselves that MH17 could not have shot downed by Russian soldiers, and we should believe this because....?
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  #491  
Old 13.10.2015, 17:39
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

Airspace over Ukraine should have been closed, but “Ukraine authorities failed to do so,” says Dutch Safety Board head

Deliberate or Mistake ?


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The Russian state-owned arms manufacturer, who had not participated in the MH17 investigation, concludes by themselves that MH17 could not have shot downed by Russian soldiers, and we should believe this because....?
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  #492  
Old 13.10.2015, 17:43
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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Airspace over Ukraine should have been closed, but “Ukraine authorities failed to do so,” says Dutch Safety Board head

Deliberate or Mistake ?

Who else had the authority to close Ukraine's airspace, except Ukraine?
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  #493  
Old 13.10.2015, 17:44
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

At least these two reports have one common thing "BUK Missile"
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  #494  
Old 13.10.2015, 17:48
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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On 14 July, the Ukrainian authorities reported that a military aeroplane, an Antonov
An-26,
had been shot down above the eastern part of Ukraine. On 17 July, the authorities
announced that a Sukhoi Su-25 had been shot down over the area on 16 July. According
to the authorities, both aircraft were shot down at an altitude that could only have been
reached by powerful weapon systems.
Read the report. MH17 was shot down on 17 July. The appearance of "powerful weapons systems" capable of reaching commercial airliners appeared only 3 days before. Not much time to react.

Also note in the report, p.10, that air space over war zones are rarely closed, and that airlies are responsible as well for their own risk assessment (eg. some other airlines did opt to fly a different and longer route. Malaysian Air did not)

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. The reality is that states involved in an armed conflict rarely close their airspace. This means that the
principle of sovereignty related to airspace management can give rise to vulnerability. In
the Board’s opinion, states involved in armed conflicts should give more consideration to
closing their airspace as a precaution. More effective incentives are needed to encourage
them to do so.
Airline operators may not assume in advance that an unrestricted airspace above a
conflict zone is safe. The fundamental principle currently adopted by operators is that
they use the airspace, unless doing so is demonstrably unsafe. In their risk analyses,
operators should take greater account of uncertainties and risk-increasing factors, such
as when a conflict expands into the airspace. The current regulations do not stipulate
that operators shall assess the risks involved in overflying conflict areas.
Operators themselves should gather more information to be able to perform an adequate
risk assessment.
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  #495  
Old 13.10.2015, 17:54
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

"In the months before the crash, at least 16 military airplanes and helicopters were shot down in the eastern part of Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities were aware of this. They stated that, occasionally, weapon systems were used that could reach the cruising altitude of civil airliners. Yet, despite of all this, Ukraine did not close its airspace,"

"It is clear that Ukraine already had sufficient reason to close the airspace over the eastern part of Ukraine as a precaution before 17 July 2014. None of the parties involved recognized the risk posed to overflying civil aircraft by the armed conflict in the eastern part of Ukraine,"


as per Dutch Safety Board.

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Read the report. MH17 was shot down on 17 July. The appearance of "powerful weapons systems" capable of reaching commercial airliners appeared only 3 days before. Not much time to react.

Also note in the report, p.10, that air space over war zones are rarely closed, and that airlies are responsible as well for their own risk assessment (eg. some other airlines did opt to fly a different and longer route. Malaysian Air did not)
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  #496  
Old 13.10.2015, 18:20
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

I agree with the report. Ukraine could have closed it's airspace, and Malaysian Air could have done better risk assessment (note: Ukraine authorities announced shoot-downs at over 3,000m in the days before MH17, so airlines were aware)....but perhaps the Russian BUK operator should have also been a little more careful as well and properly ID his targets before shooting?
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  #497  
Old 13.10.2015, 18:27
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

The Dutch Safety Board also mentioned that they have been unable to determine who was in control of the particular area where the BUK missile was fired from. They added that the warhead was detonated from somewhere within a 320 sq km area in the east of Ukraine.

Ukraine and Russia both possess BUK missiles. So based on Dutch report one can't say whether it was Russian BUK operator or not.

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I agree with the report. Ukraine could have closed it's airspace, and Malaysian Air could have done better risk assessment (note: Ukraine authorities announced shoot-downs at over 3,000m in the days before MH17, so airlines were aware)....but perhaps the Russian BUK operator should have also been a little more careful as well and properly ID his targets before shooting?
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Old 13.10.2015, 18:39
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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So they're simulating the missile detonating just in front of the cockpit as it passes in an upward trajectory from starboard to port? I had always thought the missile penetrated the aircraft itself. I'm not an expert in missile systems, but is this the standard modus operandi for the BUK system? Just curious.
Most anti-aircraft missiles - be it air-to-air or ground-to-air - don't actually expect to hit/penetrate the target, they're happy just to get close enough. They use proximity fuses with fragmentation and/or continuous rod warheads that are designed to cause enough damage to aircraft to bring it down. The famous old SA-2 missile for instance had a lethal radius of 65 meters.

Because the explosion patterns for these warheads are quite specific it is possible to identify the missile and it relative position at the time of explosion, etc.

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Deliberate or Mistake
Rather incompetence I'd say...

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....but perhaps the Russian BUK operator should have also been a little more careful as well and properly ID his targets before shooting?
Yes... as it was seen in the pictures that appeared in the media, the rebels only had a single unit TELAR with the targeting radar and launcher - they didn't have the TAR acquisition radar which would have given them the ability to see the bigger picture. They just saw a plane coming their way and shot it down.

Incompetence / clusterf**k on both sides I'd say.

Last edited by dandi; 13.10.2015 at 19:02.
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  #499  
Old 13.10.2015, 18:41
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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....but perhaps the Russian BUK operator should have also been a little more careful as well and properly ID his targets before shooting?
No unequivocal evidence has been presented by anyone to the effect that there was ever a "Russian BUK operator" involved in this incident. Any suggestion that there ever was one is fact-free conjecture masquerading as a viable hypothesis.
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  #500  
Old 13.10.2015, 18:57
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Re: Malaysian Airlines MH 17 has crashed over Ukraine

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....that there was ever a "Russian BUK operator" involved in this incident.....
Oh, yes, well, the operator could have been a Mongol or even a Congolese for that matter, sure...

But that it was a Buk missile fired from rebel-controlled area of Ukraine that brought the plane down, that there is very little doubt about.
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