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  #241  
Old 08.10.2014, 22:40
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Re: Islamic State

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Apart from publicly murdering UK & US citizens; never a good way to win friends and influence people.
neither the US nor the UK have any friends in the region, other than those who have been invented through smoke, mirrors, money and sheer force. and there is nothing preventing the US or UK from solving the ISIS problem if and when the group works its way through Turkey. Turkey has been trending more and more fundamentalist under Erdogan for several years, nothing the US or the UK do with respect to ISIS is going to impact that.

the only US or UK interest in the impacted regions is oil, which means the only US or UK interest in the impacted regions is Iraq. I am not saying that that is right, or ethical, or even moral, but it is the reality.
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  #242  
Old 08.10.2014, 22:42
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Re: Islamic State

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neither the US nor the UK have any friends in the region, other than those who have been invented through smoke, mirrors, money and sheer force. and there is nothing preventing the US or UK from solving the ISIS problem if and when the group works its way through Turkey. Turkey has been trending more and more fundamentalist under Erdogan for several years, nothing the US or the UK do with respect to ISIS is going to impact that.

the only US or UK interest in the impacted regions is oil, which means the only US or UK interest in the impacted regions is Iraq. I am not saying that that is right, or ethical, or even moral, but it is the reality.


Here the 2nd part of the history above
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  #243  
Old 08.10.2014, 22:58
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Re: Islamic State

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neither the US nor the UK have any friends in the region, other than those who have been invented through smoke, mirrors, money and sheer force. and there is nothing preventing the US or UK from solving the ISIS problem if and when the group works its way through Turkey. Turkey has been trending more and more fundamentalist under Erdogan for several years, nothing the US or the UK do with respect to ISIS is going to impact that.

the only US or UK interest in the impacted regions is oil, which means the only US or UK interest in the impacted regions is Iraq. I am not saying that that is right, or ethical, or even moral, but it is the reality.
About "the only US or UK interest in the impacted regions is Iraq. " What is your source for this? China is the country that has benefited most from Iraq oil.
US oil imports from Iraq last year are about half what they were in 2008, same for UK. China is now the largest importer of oil from the Middle East.
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  #244  
Old 08.10.2014, 23:10
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Re: Islamic State

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About "the only US or UK interest in the impacted regions is Iraq. " What is your source for this? China is the country that has benefited most from Iraq oil.
US oil imports from Iraq last year are about half what they were in 2008, same for UK. China is now the largest importer of oil from the Middle East.
agreed that China has benefited the most, but the principal objective of Bush II's invasion of Iraq after 9/11 was the opening up of the oil markets there and it generally remains the case today. even though the Chinese buy the most oil out of Iraq, the US still benefits from the fact that the Iraqi oil is available on the market, since Iraqi oil reduces the price of Saudi and other oil.

there is a certain irony in this, of course, especially with the shale gas boom and the growth of US oil exploration in North Dakota and the gulf coast. higher external oil pricing would not be entirely a bad thing for certain US business interests right now.

unless, of course, you think it coincidence that much of the US bombing of ISIS oil fields and oil infrastructure was limited to assets on the Syrian side of the border. and, of course, coincidence that US "allies" like Saudi were willing to pay for the bombing of oil assets in Syria.
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  #245  
Old 09.10.2014, 09:14
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Re: Islamic State

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agreed that China has benefited the most, but the principal objective of Bush II's invasion of Iraq after 9/11 was the opening up of the oil markets there .......
That oil motive is soooo 1990's or even 80's. It is too single-pointed and fanboyed. It doesn't fit all the facts. Perhaps mix in some geo-political situations, religious prophecy or peak-oil ideas to salten and spice it up a bit. Otherwise, its like mashed potatoes. NWO/Illuminati even.
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  #246  
Old 09.10.2014, 10:55
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Re: Islamic State

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neither the US nor the UK have any friends in the region, other than those who have been invented through smoke, mirrors, money and sheer force. and there is nothing preventing the US or UK from solving the ISIS problem if and when the group works its way through Turkey. Turkey has been trending more and more fundamentalist under Erdogan for several years, nothing the US or the UK do with respect to ISIS is going to impact that.

the only US or UK interest in the impacted regions is oil, which means the only US or UK interest in the impacted regions is Iraq. I am not saying that that is right, or ethical, or even moral, but it is the reality.
ISIL can never penetrate Turkey and the degree to which a country is "fundamentalist" has nothing to do with how likely it is for ISIL to conquer.
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  #247  
Old 09.10.2014, 11:00
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Re: Islamic State

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That oil motive is soooo 1990's or even 80's. It is too single-pointed and fanboyed. It doesn't fit all the facts. Perhaps mix in some geo-political situations, religious prophecy or peak-oil ideas to salten and spice it up a bit. Otherwise, its like mashed potatoes. NWO/Illuminati even.
I have never been a believer in conspiracy theories, and I don't think the Iraq for oil line of reasoning is a conspiracy theory. all you have to do is follow the public and private money and the actions of the Bush II and the Obama administrations.

Bush I went into Iraq because of the Saudis, Bush II went in, and Obama stayed, because of the oil. to compare what should be a reasonably obvious line of simple reasoning to a theory as plainly stupid as the Illuminati is disingenuous.
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  #248  
Old 09.10.2014, 11:11
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Re: Islamic State

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I have never been a believer in conspiracy theories, and I don't think the Iraq for oil line of reasoning is a conspiracy theory. all you have to do is follow the public and private money and the actions of the Bush II and the Obama administrations.

Bush I went into Iraq because of the Saudis, Bush II went in, and Obama stayed, because of the oil. to compare what should be a reasonably obvious line of simple reasoning to a theory as plainly stupid as the Illuminati is disingenuous.
About " I don't think the Iraq for oil line of reasoning is a conspiracy theory." I do.

What does "follow the public and private money" mean?

What have the actions of the Obama administration to do with the decison to invade Iraq that was long before?
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  #249  
Old 09.10.2014, 11:18
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Re: Islamic State

As a net importer of fuel, the US wants to keep the risk/instability premium of crude low. It wants to import from Iran and anywhere else. The conflicts in the Middle East are not about the US and no about Oil. It's cultural, they were always fighting someone, there were always beheadings in the desert. There's nothing new under the sun, especially in the peninsula.
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  #250  
Old 09.10.2014, 11:50
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Re: Islamic State

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ISIL can never penetrate Turkey and the degree to which a country is "fundamentalist" has nothing to do with how likely it is for ISIL to conquer.
ISIS does not need to 'penetrate' Turkey. They are already there, and that is where most of them came from.



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The conflicts in the Middle East are not about the US and no about Oil.
Thank you. We vain Americans always think its always about us. The conflict is about rulership.
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  #251  
Old 09.10.2014, 11:56
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Re: Islamic State

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ISIS does not need to 'penetrate' Turkey. They are already there, and that is where most of them came from.
Irrespective of where isil members come from (almost all of them are local), they're conquerers of opportunity and Turkey is one of the world's most militarised societies. Turkey, Israel, Jordan and Iran are the places in the region that are totally safe from isil
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  #252  
Old 09.10.2014, 12:07
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Re: Islamic State

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Irrespective of where isil members come from (almost all of them are local), they're conquerers of opportunity and Turkey is one of the world's most militarised societies. Turkey, Israel, Jordan and Iran are the places in the region that are totally safe from isil
IS is not a direct military threat to Turkey but through terror they can create considerable damage
This is result of two days protests mostly because of clashes between opposing groups i.e., Kurdish and IS supporters
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*24 DEAD ACROSS TURKEY ON ANTI-ISLAMIC STATE PROTESTS
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  #253  
Old 09.10.2014, 12:07
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Re: Islamic State

IS is just a present scheme. They just came up with the name earlier this year. They can change names like they change their wardrobes. They have likely just reunified with Al Nusra. They can be "gone" next week, or at least the name. But the real contention is the ideology, not an ad hoc name nor ad hoc group.
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  #254  
Old 09.10.2014, 12:22
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Re: Islamic State

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About " I don't think the Iraq for oil line of reasoning is a conspiracy theory." I do.

What does "follow the public and private money" mean?

What have the actions of the Obama administration to do with the decison to invade Iraq that was long before?
just look at US imports of oil out of Iraq, and then review the financial statements for firms such as Halliburton and Bechtel. look also at which oil assets have been bombed most heavily by the US as part of the current campaign against ISIS.

btw, I am in no way suggesting that the conflict in the region is driven by oil, nor am I suggesting that the conflict in the region is the result of US involvement. all I am suggesting is that US involvement in Iraq is driven by oil, although it's overall strategy of involvement in the region is obviously driven much more by our bizarre allegiance to the current Saudi regime.

also, I am not suggesting that oil is not a perfectly legitimate reason for the US to involve itself in the middle east. in fact, it is the only reason that would potentially have any real legitimacy in terms of foreign policy, even though the shale gas and E&P boom in the US, Canada and elsewhere is making even that involvement look less and less necessary. Russia is no longer a credible reason for the US to stay involved in the region, and hasn't been for over 20 years.
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  #255  
Old 09.10.2014, 12:29
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Re: Islamic State

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just look at US imports of oil out of Iraq, and then review the financial statements for firms such as Halliburton and Bechtel. look also at which oil assets have been bombed most heavily by the US as part of the current campaign against ISIS.
I understood they were bombing and cutting off ISIS sources of income. But that is not about getting that oil out to the market.

The US oil fiend thing is quite retro, so I'm not sure how close it is to the topic at hand. Now if you were to say that IS is about IS control of oil, then that would be a reasonable assertion.
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  #256  
Old 09.10.2014, 14:00
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Re: Islamic State

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just look at US imports of oil out of Iraq, and then review the financial statements for firms such as Halliburton and Bechtel. look also at which oil assets have been bombed most heavily by the US as part of the current campaign against ISIS.

btw, I am in no way suggesting that the conflict in the region is driven by oil, nor am I suggesting that the conflict in the region is the result of US involvement. all I am suggesting is that US involvement in Iraq is driven by oil, although it's overall strategy of involvement in the region is obviously driven much more by our bizarre allegiance to the current Saudi regime.

also, I am not suggesting that oil is not a perfectly legitimate reason for the US to involve itself in the middle east. in fact, it is the only reason that would potentially have any real legitimacy in terms of foreign policy, even though the shale gas and E&P boom in the US, Canada and elsewhere is making even that involvement look less and less necessary. Russia is no longer a credible reason for the US to stay involved in the region, and hasn't been for over 20 years.
About "just look at US imports of oil out of Iraq" I did! US imported oil from over 60 countries and Iraq was not the largest supplier, so how was oil a driver for the war?
• The U.S. gets less oil today from Iraq than before 9/11
• The largest source of crude oil for the United States is the United States
• Iraq has never represented more than 4.5% of crude oil used in the United States, see picture
• The total import of oil from the Persian Gulf has decreased
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  #257  
Old 09.10.2014, 14:31
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Re: Islamic State

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About "just look at US imports of oil out of Iraq" I did! US imported oil from over 60 countries and Iraq was not the largest supplier, so how was oil a driver for the war?
• The U.S. gets less oil today from Iraq than before 9/11
• The largest source of crude oil for the United States is the United States
• Iraq has never represented more than 4.5% of crude oil used in the United States, see picture
• The total import of oil from the Persian Gulf has decreased
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About "just look at US imports of oil out of Iraq" I did! US imported oil from over 60 countries and Iraq was not the largest supplier, so how was oil a driver for the war?
• The U.S. gets less oil today from Iraq than before 9/11
• The largest source of crude oil for the United States is the United States
• Iraq has never represented more than 4.5% of crude oil used in the United States, see picture
• The total import of oil from the Persian Gulf has decreased
you are taking isolated statistics entirely out of context. Phos is right that it is off-topic, but the US objective in Iraq was not about taking Iraqi oil, it was about ensuring that the Iraqi oil was made available to the markets in a steady manner. it is important to bear in mind that, while pricing is important, the most important thing to hydros traders and refinery companies is consistency in pricing - market and pricing volatility make modeling (and therefore profit-taking) much riskier. a trader or refinery company does not mind if oil costs $1 or $100 a barrel, so long as it consistently costs $1 or $100 a barrel.

the failure in the strategy, obviously, is that nobody really believed that US engagement in Iraq would become one of many factors to create even greater instability in the region, and the current instability is creating far more volatility in the markets than anything Iraq could have even done.

as for Syria, just look at where the oil assets that the US has bombed the last 2 weeks sit. even at its peak before 2011, Syria produced less oil than the state of North Dakota currently produces on its own, which is why it was so easy for the US to impose economic sanctions prohibiting trading in Syrian oil. you can take all of Syria's oil off the market and it will still be rounding error in terms of pricing impact.
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  #258  
Old 09.10.2014, 15:51
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Re: Islamic State

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you are taking isolated statistics entirely out of context. Phos is right that it is off-topic, but the US objective in Iraq was not about taking Iraqi oil, it was about ensuring that the Iraqi oil was made available to the markets in a steady manner. it is important to bear in mind that, while pricing is important, the most important thing to hydros traders and refinery companies is consistency in pricing - market and pricing volatility make modeling (and therefore profit-taking) much riskier. a trader or refinery company does not mind if oil costs $1 or $100 a barrel, so long as it consistently costs $1 or $100 a barrel.

the failure in the strategy, obviously, is that nobody really believed that US engagement in Iraq would become one of many factors to create even greater instability in the region, and the current instability is creating far more volatility in the markets than anything Iraq could have even done.

as for Syria, just look at where the oil assets that the US has bombed the last 2 weeks sit. even at its peak before 2011, Syria produced less oil than the state of North Dakota currently produces on its own, which is why it was so easy for the US to impose economic sanctions prohibiting trading in Syrian oil. you can take all of Syria's oil off the market and it will still be rounding error in terms of pricing impact.
About "Phos is right that it is off-topic" True but who started this discussion?

About " US objective in Iraq was not about taking Iraqi oil, it was about ensuring that the Iraqi oil was made available to the markets in a steady manner. "

At the time Irag's oil production was controlled by the UN oil for food program which set Oil production quotas at 6 monthly intervals; maybe the US should have invaded the UN to stabalise the market?

About "just look at where the oil assets that the US has bombed the last 2 weeks sit." Of course they do, the US believes they can assist the Iraq government to regain the oil fields currently controlled by ISIS so they want to leave them undamaged.
They do not want to leave the Syrian oilfields intact for Assad's return.
Now we are back on topic!
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  #259  
Old 09.10.2014, 21:35
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Re: Islamic State

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ISIS does not need to 'penetrate' Turkey. They are already there, and that is where most of them came from.





Thank you. We vain Americans always think its always about us. The conflict is about rulership.

A) NO, they are NOT there
B) Most of them are WEST Europeans and Arabs
C) Most Turks perceive the ISIS folks as "Arabs" which for ISIS is a clear handicap
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Old 09.10.2014, 23:08
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Re: Islamic State

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A) NO, they are NOT there
B) Most of them are WEST Europeans and Arabs
C) Most Turks perceive the ISIS folks as "Arabs" which for ISIS is a clear handicap
Which version of ISIS or reality would that be?

10 Percent of ISIS Fighters Reportedly Turkish
Turkish Support for ISIS: 3000 Turks in ISIS

Guess which country Jihadists transit through to get to Iraq and Syria.
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