Arab gang assaults in Germany - Page 49

marton · #**961** 02.03.2016, 10:22

	Quote:	Urs Max
	You seem to use annual convictions. The ratio of convicted criminals is probably more like 5-10 times that (filter for repeat offenders).

True, I used the best case.
Worst case is as you say one to two thousand convicted criminals in every million Swiss. Of course, in addition many criminals are not caught and convicted.

amogles · #**962** 02.03.2016, 10:24

	Quote:	marton
	"The only survey that matters is the state elections in two weeks time." According to ARD most people in Germany are more concerned with other matters like the economy and the job market; so the election will not be about refugees.

I was in Germany over the weekend and I'd estimate that at least half the election posters seemed to be about refugees or their implications in one way or the other.

Most of the other half were just the standard type of boring posters with a candidate's mugshot and their name and party and some meaningless slogan underneath.

#**963** 02.03.2016, 10:35

	Quote:	marton
	"Only a thousand people were asked." Please do tell us what would be the statistically significant sample size of people to ask? So far as I remember statistics a sample of 1,000 would give a confidence level of under 3; depends on your assumptions, of course. I assumed that only people eligible to vote would asked (60 million?). "The only survey that matters is the state elections in two weeks time." According to ARD most people in Germany are more concerned with other matters like the economy and the job market; so the election will not be about refugees.

"According to ARD"... given their output last year, I wouldn't trust anything that comes from either state broadcaster. Like I said, time will tell.

Regarding polls, I don't think 1000 is truly representative. We saw this last year during the UK general election. In the run up, all the polls were calling it a close race and a hung Parliament based on asking similar numbers of people. In the end, it was only the BBC exit poll which called it right, and that asked 22,000.

marton · #**964** 02.03.2016, 11:38

	Quote:	Loz1983
	"According to ARD"... given their output last year, I wouldn't trust anything that comes from either state broadcaster. Like I said, time will tell. Regarding polls, I don't think 1000 is truly representative. We saw this last year during the UK general election. In the run up, all the polls were calling it a close race and a hung Parliament based on asking similar numbers of people. In the end, it was only the BBC exit poll which called it right, and that asked 22,000.

I doubt ARD would be so dumb as to publish a survey which can be challenged on the grounds of "too small a sample".

The statistical support of the ARD sample size is clear; of course you are free to think whatever you want to.

marton · #**965** 02.03.2016, 11:47

	Quote:	amogles
	I was in Germany over the weekend and I'd estimate that at least half the election posters seemed to be about refugees or their implications in one way or the other. Most of the other half were just the standard type of boring posters with a candidate's mugshot and their name and party and some meaningless slogan underneath.

"I was in Germany over the weekend and I'd estimate that at least half the election posters seemed to be about refugees or their implications in one way or the other."

There was an independent survey on people's concerns - maybe the politicians are not in tune with the people

There is a similar English language forum in Germany (probably I dare not provide a link!) which has a similar thread to this one.
This thread has around a thousand posts whereas the German forum has just over two thousand in a country with ten times our population.

#**966** 02.03.2016, 11:58

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Regarding polls, I don't think 1000 is truly representative. We saw this last year during the UK general election. In the run up, all the polls were calling it a close race and a hung Parliament based on asking similar numbers of people. In the end, it was only the BBC exit poll which called it right, and that asked 22,000.

Gives you a confidence level of around 3% (put simply) which for the results indicated is not problematic. The issue in the UK polls lay around the sampling and questioning (plus possibly a reluctance to admit to voting tory) rather than the sample sizes themselves. Not easy to judge this for the ARD poll.

#**967** 02.03.2016, 12:04

	Quote:	marton
	This thread has around a thousand posts whereas the German forum has just over two thousand in a country with ten times our population.

Relevant would surely be how many English speakers there are in the two countries, not the total population. According to Wikipedia, there's 316K with "main language" English in Switzerland and 276K "first language" English in Germany. Sorry, can't find a "main language" number for Germany.

#**968** 02.03.2016, 12:12

The cracks within the EU are widening as Austria tells Merkel "Bring refugees from Greece yourself".

Merkel still thinks giving money to Turkey is the answer. Turkey are merrily shelling Kurds in Syria, which in turn become refugees who then come to Europe. You couldn't make it up.

http://www.thelocal.de/20160302/just...a-tells-merkel

amogles · #**969** 02.03.2016, 13:19

	Quote:	marton
	There was an independent survey on people's concerns - maybe the politicians are not in tune with the people There is a similar English language forum in Germany (probably I dare not provide a link!) which has a similar thread to this one. This thread has around a thousand posts whereas the German forum has just over two thousand in a country with ten times our population.

In Germany there are major marches attracting thousands of people in multiple cities organised by people like PEGIDA and the various shades and variants thereof. The media are calling these people out at every turn, making it legitimate I guess to say that they are very worried.

In Switzerland we've just gone through a very tough referndum campaign so the topic of migration has been more present in people's minds than usual and yet there haven't been any major marches. Some guys even tried to create a PEGIDA offshoot here and it fizzld out after the only two participants fell out.

I think this does support the observation that the topic is huge in Germany right now.

esto · #**970** 02.03.2016, 22:58

	Quote:	marton
	According to an opinion poll by ARD today, Merkel's popularity is now up 8 points.

I have no idea why Merkel's rating bumped up a few points. Her "talk" has changed a little /eg. telling refugees have to go home when war is over), but she is standing fast on her core policy of no limits, which seems to be out of step with the German people.

	Quote:
	The survey for public broadcaster ARD, conducted by pollster Infratest-dimap on Feb 26-27, had popular support for Merkel rising to 54 percent from 46 percent in the previous month. At the same time, support for Bavarian State Premier Horst Seehofer, one of Merkel's harshest critics in the refugee debate, plunged to 38 percent from 45 percent. Still, nearly 60 percent of the 1,005 polled voters said they were unsatisfied with the government's refugee policy while roughly 40 percent said Berlin was doing a good job. .. Nearly two out of three polled voters (63 percent) said Germany should introduce a national cap to limit the refugee influx. .. Merkel defended her open-door policy for migrants and rejected the idea of closing borders to better control the numbers of refugees allowed into the country. On Sunday, Merkel said there was no 'Plan B' for her aim of reducing the flow of migrants through cooperation with Turkey, efforts she said could unravel were Germany to cap the number of refugees it accepts.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu...-idUSKCN0W22F8

I really don't understand this quote. Merkel welcomes them, and then says "they have no right"??

	Quote:
	Merkel said: "There is actually no right that a refugee can say 'I want to receive asylum in this specific EU state'."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu...-idUSKCN0W34OA

marton · #**971** 03.03.2016, 01:14

	Quote:	esto
	I have no idea why Merkel's rating bumped up a few points. Her "talk" has changed a little /eg. telling refugees have to go home when war is over), but she is standing fast on her core policy of no limits, which seems to be out of step with the German people. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu...-idUSKCN0W22F8 I really don't understand this quote. Merkel welcomes them, and then says "they have no right"?? http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu...-idUSKCN0W34OA

"I have no idea why Merkel's rating bumped up a few points."

Because for most Germans, refugee policies are low on their agenda and also low on their day to to day issues.
Basically most of them do not care

latisha · #**972** 03.03.2016, 06:23

	Quote:
	"I have no idea why Merkel's rating bumped up a few points."

Probably the reason behind was their plan to close the border as it is reported.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...to-crisis.html

Sbrinz · #**973** 03.03.2016, 07:01

	Quote:	esto
	I really don't understand this quote. Merkel welcomes them, and then says "they have no right"?? http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu...-idUSKCN0W34OA

Quote: Asked if she would repeat that if migrants on the Greek-Macedonian border asked for help, Merkel said: "There is actually no right that a refugee can say 'I want to receive asylum in this specific EU state'."

Isn't she referring to current EU regulations, which state the refugee must apply for asylum in the first EU country he visits, usually Greece or Italy?

They are not "legally permitted" to enter Greece and travel to Germany and claim refugee status there.

The EU is going to pay Greece 700 millions of Euros, over 2 years, to pay for humane support for refugees in Greece. - The first time it has promised this.

#**974** 03.03.2016, 08:47

	Quote:	marton
	Because for most Germans, refugee policies are low on their agenda... Basically most of them do not care

This simply isn't true, and the next few months will prove it.

Spiegel reporting of the approximate 200,000 foreigners scheduled to be deported in Germany, almost 150,000 will be allowed to stay. News like this will do nothing to deter the migrants trying to enter to country.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1080125.html

amogles · #**975** 03.03.2016, 11:43

	Quote:	latisha
	Probably the reason behind was their plan to close the border as it is reported. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...to-crisis.html

	Quote:	Telegraph_article
	But she [The Ferkel] spent much of the interview speaking out against moves by Austria and other countries to close borders. “The problem is they acted unilaterally. Greece was simply left on the outside,” she said.

Not much capacity for self analysis, has she?

st2lemans · #**976** 04.03.2016, 15:06

Now, this is going too far:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/germany-tra...l-ally-1547074

Tom

marton · #**977** 04.03.2016, 15:22

	Quote:	st2lemans
	Now, this is going too far: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/germany-tra...l-ally-1547074 Tom

Just needs the Hindus to kick up a fuss about Beef sausages and we might as well all become veggies!

Luckily there seems to be no ban on Schweinshaxe

marton · #**978** 04.03.2016, 21:40

Syrian refugee is a media hit in Germany
Source might be behind a Paywall.

One quote "There’s so much hate on the internet right now,” he says. “People need something to make them happy.”

marton · #**979** 05.03.2016, 12:34

	Quote:	Loz1983
	This simply isn't true, and the next few months will prove it. Spiegel reporting of the approximate 200,000 foreigners scheduled to be deported in Germany, almost 150,000 will be allowed to stay. News like this will do nothing to deter the migrants trying to enter to country. http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1080125.html

"This simply isn't true, and the next few months will prove it." Currently the polls are showing the CDU (Merkel's party) with similar results in the next election versus the last one.
Whereas the SPD who have been talking against Merkel's refugee policy are forecast to lose a lot.

marton · #**980** 05.03.2016, 14:43

Newspaper reports today that the Turkish border guards opened fire on Syrian refugees; at least ten were hit and some deaths
here (in German)
here in English

Not the first time for such claims