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  #201  
Old 03.02.2017, 13:46
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

Merkel recieved the Eugen Bolz Award 2017 for her "civil courage" with her refugee policy.

https://www.rt.com/news/376099-germa...efugees-award/
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  #202  
Old 06.02.2017, 16:43
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

Yup, Merkel definitely has a fight on her hands.



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  #203  
Old 07.02.2017, 10:05
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Yup, Merkel definitely has a fight on her hands.
Wow, what a spike-up. What happened, what's the assumed reason?
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  #204  
Old 07.02.2017, 11:39
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Wow, what a spike-up. What happened, what's the assumed reason?
Looking at the chart it seems some AFD and Green voters moved to the SPD; hopefully somebody knows why.

It looks like the Afd attraction is fading? Also why?
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  #205  
Old 07.02.2017, 11:52
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

German voters tend to be pragmatic, i think. The upsurge in popularity was more a protest at the policy of the government, rather than an actual alighnment with AfD policies. Now that election time seems to be drawing around, people have begun to take the matter seriously, and so are moving away from the AfD. I think people voted to register their displeasure, but few actually want the AfD anywhere near power.

Consider the fact that the divide between the CDU and the SPD is not that wide, and the SPD is, in some respects more left than the CDU. German voters dont want to throw the government into chaos, nor do they really have faith in a government which would involve the AfD. They want to stay the course, and rightly so.

I would point out that most reports have the parties at both just over 30%, rather than the CDU falling to or below 30%. At this point, the margin for error is too wide, i think, to definitively say that the CDU is less popular. Considering the good economic news coming out of Germany, i wouldn't be surprised with a small boost for the CDU this month.
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  #206  
Old 07.02.2017, 11:54
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

I put it down to leadership. Germans are sick of Merkel but none of the other parties had a viable leaders up until now. Schulz provides an alternative.

AfD have populist policies but are without a decent leader.
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  #207  
Old 07.02.2017, 12:28
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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I put it down to leadership. Germans are sick of Merkel but none of the other parties had a viable leaders up until now. Schulz provides an alternative.

AfD have populist policies but are without a decent leader.
And people have seen the results of populist policies in UK and US. As was said German voters tend to be pragmatic and are probably also risk averse.

In addition the Govt. seems to have the immigrant situation better under control; very few dramatic headlines now so that issue is fading away!
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  #208  
Old 07.02.2017, 12:55
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Looking at the chart it seems some AFD and Green voters moved to the SPD; hopefully somebody knows why.

It looks like the Afd attraction is fading? Also why?
Because politicians of other parties are mimicing the rhetoric and promising to get tough on deporting failed asylum applicants.

Of course not until after the election

It's the normal thing. Whenever a far right party gets uncomfortably strong, the other parties swing to the right to steal some of their wind. Thus meaning the far right can affect policy without actually being in government.
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  #209  
Old 07.02.2017, 13:06
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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And people have seen the results of populist policies in UK and US. As was said German voters tend to be pragmatic and are probably also risk averse.
Traditionally, Germany has tended to follow the UK politically.

Mrs Thatcher elected in 1979
Helmut Kohl elected 1982

Tony Blair elected 1997
Gerhard Schröder elected 1998

OK, Merkel was elected before Cameron, so the parallel breaks down there a bit, but the overall direction was still the same.

So let's see if Germany can break out of doing the same as the UK.
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  #210  
Old 07.02.2017, 13:56
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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And people have seen the results of populist policies in UK and US. As was said German voters tend to be pragmatic and are probably also risk averse.

In addition the Govt. seems to have the immigrant situation better under control; very few dramatic headlines now so that issue is fading away!
You're a funny guy. "Fading away". It'll fade away until the next terrorist or sex attack is carried out by a migrant.

Populist parties are here to stay for the foreseeable future. A populist party is about to win an election the Netherlands next month.
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  #211  
Old 07.02.2017, 14:13
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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You're a funny guy. "Fading away". It'll fade away until the next terrorist or sex attack is carried out by a migrant.

Populist parties are here to stay for the foreseeable future. A populist party is about to win an election the Netherlands next month.
Depends how you define win?
They will not be able to form a Govt. because no other party will partner with them!
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  #212  
Old 07.02.2017, 14:24
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

Sorry Amogles, but two examples does not a tradition make. While the UK has veered sharply right, i cant see that happening in Germany.

Considering a large reason for the excellent performance of the German economy is due to the refugees, its likely they will be in the news, but for good reasons rather than bad. I would risk going so far as to say that as they integrate, the economy will get a further, more sustained boost, as the additional working-age population begins to find work and the public spending begins to tail off.
And, as the ECB is beginning to slow down its QE programme due to reaching its limits, the pressure on the Euro is beginning to level off too. This helps the German economy further.

Considering that german manufacturing is considered to be an indicator for the rest of the EU (Germany is known for making machines that make other things), this could be read as a sign that the overall health of the EU economy is getting better. But lets wait and see on that.

Its premature to say they will win the election in NL, but its likely they will do well.

I wouldn't say government policy in Germany has taken a lurch to the right, due to the AfD. In the UK (due to UKIP), yes, but if the polls are correct, Germany will do the opposite.

Germans are very proud of their economy, as can be seen by their reluctance to reduce their trade surplus. Don't underestimate the boost that a good showing in the 2016 report will have for the CDP. Like i said, too early to tell.
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  #213  
Old 07.02.2017, 14:37
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

I remember last year somebody on this forum was asking whether it is safe to visit Germany with a group of friends including female friends, and whether they should carry pepper spray.
I can't find the post but I would like to know if you people still view Germany as some dangerous place full of muslims ready to attack you at every corner.

Living here, I think most Germans are quite satisfied at the moment.
I still hope SPD wins the election because that would be good for the rest of the EU.
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  #214  
Old 07.02.2017, 15:05
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Depends how you define win?
They will not be able to form a Govt. because no other party will partner with them!
Sometimes you don't need to win outright to win.

If all established parties need to form a massive coalition to keep one party of government, that party becomes the official opposition and benefits from any mistake the governing coalition makes or any dissatisfaction that may come up.

And because broad coalitions often have little common ground, there will be many compromises that practically everybody will be unhappy with.
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  #215  
Old 07.02.2017, 15:12
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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And because broad coalitions often have little common ground, there will be many compromises that practically everybody will be unhappy with.
Compromises aren't necessarily bad. Perhaps nothing to write home about but in the long run you may well get better results with multiple small steps rather than the whipsaw you get when the former opposition comes into power and reverts everything.
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  #216  
Old 07.02.2017, 15:15
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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I wouldn't say government policy in Germany has taken a lurch to the right, due to the AfD. In the UK (due to UKIP), yes, but if the polls are correct, Germany will do the opposite.

Germans are very proud of their economy, as can be seen by their reluctance to reduce their trade surplus. Don't underestimate the boost that a good showing in the 2016 report will have for the CDP. Like i said, too early to tell.
A lot of the people I know in Germany are saying they are utterly dissatisfied with the present government, especially but not only because of the migrant crisis. They say the parties are all too similar and complicit and that they don't know who to vote for as they want change but can't see anybody who can promise it to them.

Most wouldn't vote AfD as they consider AfD to be too extreme, too much talk and also too risky. Nobody is really sure what the AfD is really about or what they would genuinely do if they came to power. Germans want evolutions, not revolutions.

But I feel if AfD could somehow break out of its extremist shell and develop a centrist leaning while acquiring some dissidents from the CDU and other parties so they have people who have actually been in government and know how things work, they could yet become electable.
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  #217  
Old 07.02.2017, 15:18
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Compromises aren't necessarily bad. Perhaps nothing to write home about but in the long run you may well get better results with multiple small steps rather than the whipsaw you get when the former opposition comes into power and reverts everything.
It works well in Switzerland.

But I doubt a country like Germany or the Netherlands would work with that type of government. It's just not in their political DNA.
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  #218  
Old 07.02.2017, 15:37
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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A lot of the people I know in Germany are saying they are utterly dissatisfied with the present government, especially but not only because of the migrant crisis. They say the parties are all too similar and complicit and that they don't know who to vote for as they want change but can't see anybody who can promise it to them.

Most wouldn't vote AfD as they consider AfD to be too extreme, too much talk and also too risky. Nobody is really sure what the AfD is really about or what they would genuinely do if they came to power. Germans want evolutions, not revolutions.

But I feel if AfD could somehow break out of its extremist shell and develop a centrist leaning while acquiring some dissidents from the CDU and other parties so they have people who have actually been in government and know how things work, they could yet become electable.
The AfD was not founded as a racist extremist party but it attracted these people and then they took over it.
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  #219  
Old 07.02.2017, 15:47
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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I remember last year somebody on this forum was asking whether it is safe to visit Germany with a group of friends including female friends, and whether they should carry pepper spray.
I can't find the post but I would like to know if you people still view Germany as some dangerous place full of muslims ready to attack you at every corner.

Living here, I think most Germans are quite satisfied at the moment.
I still hope SPD wins the election because that would be good for the rest of the EU.
Many are very unsatisfied. Some are even suspected of trying to establish their own state. As amogles alluded to, there are no parties which really speak out for these people.

Germany isn't some dangerous place full of muslims. However it is more dangerous than before the migrant crisis. German's are arming themselves which suggests they feel more insecure now than before.
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  #220  
Old 07.02.2017, 15:55
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Many are very unsatisfied. Some are even suspected of trying to establish their own state. As amogles alluded to, there are no parties which really speak out for these people.
Actually the Reichsbrüger movement has been largely misrepresented in the news.

They are not a self styled militia planning on revolution. They are more akin to the Freeman movement in the UK, as in people with libertarian, reductionist or identitarian views who want less government interference and want to be able to do their own thing on their own land. Like their Uk counterparts, they make a strong point of distinguishing between people and persons and challenge the legitimacy of courts and judges. At best they are clowns looking to bring a bit of levity to a dull world and at worst they are deluded but harmless dreamers. Their is no ambition of attempting to sieze power or forcing their views on mainstream society. They simply want to be left alone.

And just as the Freeman movement in Britain sees its legal justification in the Magna Carta and other ancient laws and wants to see these restituted, the Reichsbüger movement talks about ancient German laws. The Reich they speak of has nothing to do with Hitler but much to do with Charlemaigne and Barbarossa. Admittedly, it's maybe an unfortunate choice of terminology.
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