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  #461  
Old 24.08.2017, 15:00
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

People vote based on their perceptions of how the country has performed over the last 4 years. Everything else is consigned to history and ignored.


By and large, germans and Germany has done well over the last 12 years, compared to the competition. German media has generally been quite balanced and pro Merkel.


its no surprise theyre voted for somebody who has performed admirably for such a long time.
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  #462  
Old 24.08.2017, 15:06
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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People vote based on their perceptions of how the country has performed over the last 4 years. Everything else is consigned to history and ignored.


By and large, germans and Germany has done well over the last 12 years, compared to the competition. German media has generally been quite balanced and pro Merkel.


its no surprise theyre voted for somebody who has performed admirably for such a long time.
A different definition of balanced:

"German media accused of one-sided coverage of refugee crisis"

https://www.ft.com/content/23e02b76-...f-99f383b09ff9
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  #463  
Old 24.08.2017, 15:09
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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A different definition of balanced:

"German media accused of one-sided coverage of refugee crisis"

https://www.ft.com/content/23e02b76-...f-99f383b09ff9
Guilty until proven innocent
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  #464  
Old 24.08.2017, 15:14
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Guilty until proven innocent
The studies are done by their own academics, who got sick of media crap. Hats down to German academia for this. Whether people will want to actually hear it, or go to Edeka experience, instead, is another questions. Nobody wants to read they have been lied to, and for so long. And that things might be not as pretty.

I guess it takes a bit of scepticism, but we earned it - offered help and shelter to those who left for Germany since they are after something else.

Merkel needs to stop lying to people and manipulating media to lobotomize readers.
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  #465  
Old 24.08.2017, 15:50
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Guilty until proven innocent
The study has been financed by the Otto Brenner Stiftung (Otto Brenner has been president of the IG Metall union for many years). Today the Stiftung is IG Metall's scientific department.

Find the study and related material (everything in German only) on this page.
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  #466  
Old 25.08.2017, 09:29
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

AfD on the rise again according to the latest poll. Third biggest party now.

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  #467  
Old 25.08.2017, 10:21
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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The German parlimentary elections are just 4 weeks away, and yet amazingly 46% of the electorate haven't yet decided who to vote for!

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/b...-15163692.html

One month before the Bundestag election almost half of the voters do not yet know who they want to vote for on September 24th.
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AfD on the rise again according to the latest poll. Third biggest party now.

When I look at the first quote above then I do not have much confidence in the validity of the poll in the second quote.

Erdogan has been instructing Turks in Germany not to vote for the main parties; this is forecast to have a negative effect on the SPD?
Not sure if this will benefit any of the smaller parties?

Edit - If the poll is correct then it looks like all the named parties will win some Bundestag seats which would be a surprise!
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  #468  
Old 25.08.2017, 13:00
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

Marton, unrelated to your last post, I have to say that you are probably the only one who still believes in Merkel.

On one hand they are ready to punish countries which don't "secure" their borders, on the other hand she welcomes the whole globe to Germany or Europe...

I'll let you decide when she really means it and when not....dam' politics, dam' politicians.
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  #469  
Old 25.08.2017, 13:16
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Marton, unrelated to your last post, I have to say that you are probably the only one who still believes in Merkel.

On one hand they are ready to punish countries which don't "secure" their borders, on the other hand she welcomes the whole globe to Germany or Europe...

I'll let you decide when she really means it and when not....dam' politics, dam' politicians.
When did I ever say I believe in Merkel?
However a voting majority of Germans do; over 30%!

I wrote that for the average German she delivers what they want, positive economy, rising wages and low unemployment.
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  #470  
Old 25.08.2017, 13:52
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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When I look at the first quote above then I do not have much confidence in the validity of the poll in the second quote.

Erdogan has been instructing Turks in Germany not to vote for the main parties; this is forecast to have a negative effect on the SPD?
Not sure if this will benefit any of the smaller parties?

Edit - If the poll is correct then it looks like all the named parties will win some Bundestag seats which would be a surprise!

The joys of overhang seats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overhang_seat

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%9Cberhangmandat
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  #471  
Old 26.08.2017, 21:09
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned the U.K. on Saturday that it would have to pay a settlement to leave the EU, denying that the obligation amounted to a “fine.”

“This is about obligations that Great Britain has entered into and that naturally must remain on the books,”

Source
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  #472  
Old 26.08.2017, 22:00
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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"How tiny is it" Well there are over 20 million Muslims in Europe and there were three deadly terrorist incidents in 2016.
Source
So tiny is less than one in a million!
3.. Really only 3...

You mean dozens, and only 3 with a minimum of 10 deaths.

Oh, and btw your number from over 20 Million is true, but you could also have said it's way over 44 Million, this would have been more accurate unless you talk about the European Union and not about Europe.
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This is quite similar to the chance of being hit by a meteorite!
Nope, the chance of dying by the hand of an Islamic terrorist is much much higher than dying by getting a meteorite on your head.
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The odds of being struck by lightning in your lifetime is between 1 in 3,000 and 1 in 12,000 depending on which analysis you believe, the odds of this killing you is 10%!
Sharks kill less people in comparison to the flu, your point is?

Lightning is however a "funny" thing, since we lower the chance of getting hit by it by avoiding certain places when they occur, we protect our buildings to keep them out, and this has lowered the amount of deaths with a decent amount. So are you perhaps implying that whatever measurement we take, deaths still will occur, or are you implying that we can lower the risk by avoiding places and should protect ourselves as much as is economically responsible?

Last edited by EdwinNL; 26.08.2017 at 22:35.
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  #473  
Old 27.08.2017, 00:22
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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3.. Really only 3...

You mean dozens, and only 3 with a minimum of 10 deaths.

Oh, and btw your number from over 20 Million is true, but you could also have said it's way over 44 Million, this would have been more accurate unless you talk about the European Union and not about Europe. Nope, the chance of dying by the hand of an Islamic terrorist is much much higher than dying by getting a meteorite on your head.
Sharks kill less people in comparison to the flu, your point is?

Lightning is however a "funny" thing, since we lower the chance of getting hit by it by avoiding certain places when they occur, we protect our buildings to keep them out, and this has lowered the amount of deaths with a decent amount. So are you perhaps implying that whatever measurement we take, deaths still will occur, or are you implying that we can lower the risk by avoiding places and should protect ourselves as much as is economically responsible?
My point was that the number of terrorist incidents in Western Europe is tiny.

There is nothing in your post that counters my point
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  #474  
Old 27.08.2017, 02:57
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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My point was that the number of terrorist incidents in Western Europe is tiny.

There is nothing in your post that counters my point
There is nothing in my post that you want to read. Same as that you read your own sources very badly and therefor come up with wrong stats.

And thinking that there only could have been 3 attacks in Europe over the last year shows an enormous lack of being up to date with news and what is happening in the world.

Oh btw: Over the last 32 years more people died from terrorism in the US than from lightning (Probably even over the last 50 or more years but i could not find those numbers that quickly), But since you want to take up the numbers of the whole world with the lightning comparison which is silly since in developed countries there's really only a few deaths each year making terrorism the more deadly one in a bunch of countries. Then why not take the terrorism numbers of the whole world and draw the only possible conclusion that due to the numbers over the last years the change of dying of terrorism worldwide is bigger than dying of lightning.

So you are wrong and your numbers are wrong.

Anything more you want to state and have it disproven by us?
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  #475  
Old 27.08.2017, 10:19
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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There is nothing in my post that you want to read. Same as that you read your own sources very badly and therefor come up with wrong stats.

And thinking that there only could have been 3 attacks in Europe over the last year shows an enormous lack of being up to date with news and what is happening in the world.

Oh btw: Over the last 32 years more people died from terrorism in the US than from lightning (Probably even over the last 50 or more years but i could not find those numbers that quickly), But since you want to take up the numbers of the whole world with the lightning comparison which is silly since in developed countries there's really only a few deaths each year making terrorism the more deadly one in a bunch of countries. Then why not take the terrorism numbers of the whole world and draw the only possible conclusion that due to the numbers over the last years the change of dying of terrorism worldwide is bigger than dying of lightning.

So you are wrong and your numbers are wrong.

Anything more you want to state and have it disproven by us?
Cherry picking, in 31 of those 32 years there were many more lightning caused deaths than by terrorists.

It is not a scientific approach to take one extremely exceptional year and then use it to create an average over many years, read about excluding outliers!
So your calculation and conclusion is invalid.
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  #476  
Old 27.08.2017, 12:22
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Cherry picking, in 31 of those 32 years there were many more lightning caused deaths than by terrorists.

It is not a scientific approach to take one extremely exceptional year and then use it to create an average over many years, read about excluding outliers!
So your calculation and conclusion is invalid.
But downplaying terrorism in the western world by taking a way to low unrealistic number by failing to read your own sources and leaving out terrorism in the rest of the world, but including lightning victims worldwide even tho the difference between the western world and Africa / Asia is easily a factor 100 (Malawi even a factor 420 to name a worse one) is statistically correct in your eyes?

You read what you want, you see what you want, leave out questions you don't want to answer and facts are non-important when it comes to your opinion.

Simple fact: Over the last years lightning killed less people worldwide when compared to terrorism.
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Old 27.08.2017, 12:39
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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You read what you want, you see what you want, leave out questions you don't want to answer and facts are non-important when it comes to your opinion.
Marton is an embodiment of everything wrong with the modern left. But as someone who wants to see the Overton window shift more to the right I find people like him are invaluable.
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  #478  
Old 27.08.2017, 12:43
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Marton is an embodiment of everything wrong with the modern left. But as someone who wants to see the Overton window shift more to the right I find people like him are invaluable.
As long as he's willing to move to a country and pay taxes & risks to support the policies he espouses I have no problem with it - he's not - ergo hypocrite.
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  #479  
Old 27.08.2017, 13:58
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Marton is an embodiment of everything wrong with the modern left. But as someone who wants to see the Overton window shift more to the right I find people like him are invaluable.
Sorry but I do not support this US based oversimple childish binary split between Right and Left. Labelling me as Left ignores the whole subtlety and complexity of the modern weave of life and replacing it with a word that even children can grasp
One of the joys of Switzerland are the many political parties with varying shades of opinion so one can usually find an opinion to support and for a different topic find a different party to support.

You used to claim to be politically centre; good to see you are now admitting you want to see "shift more to the right".
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Old 27.08.2017, 14:07
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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But downplaying terrorism in the western world by taking a way to low unrealistic number by failing to read your own sources and leaving out terrorism in the rest of the world, but including lightning victims worldwide even tho the difference between the western world and Africa / Asia is easily a factor 100 (Malawi even a factor 420 to name a worse one) is statistically correct in your eyes?

You read what you want, you see what you want, leave out questions you don't want to answer and facts are non-important when it comes to your opinion.

Simple fact: Over the last years lightning killed less people worldwide when compared to terrorism.
This thread is entitled "Do you believe in Merkel?" consequently I posted about Western Europe? What happens in the rest of the world is off topic and irrelevant

I clearly quoted the sources for my numbers, I decided to include only major terrorist incidents which was clearly defined in my source.
So where are your sources?
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