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  #861  
Old 16.06.2018, 16:53
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Confusing!
What's confusing about it ? She broke European law as the ECJ case determined.
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  #862  
Old 16.06.2018, 16:56
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

Why Mutti Merkel has been a disaster for Germany - by Niall Ferguson

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  #863  
Old 16.06.2018, 17:44
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Why Mutti Merkel has been a disaster for Germany - by Niall Ferguson

According to your link 92% of the crime increase was due to young men from Morroco, Algeria and Tunisia.

You still do not get the point that Germany ceased applying the rules of the Dublin system to Syrian refugees only; Syrians
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  #864  
Old 16.06.2018, 18:53
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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According to your link 92% of the crime increase was due to young men from Morroco, Algeria and Tunisia.
No read it again.
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  #865  
Old 16.06.2018, 22:30
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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No read it again.
The problem with discussing newspaper reports of scientific studies is the journalists cherry pick.

So I decided to read the original study "Zur Entwicklung der Gewalt in Deutschland. Schwerpunkte: Jugendliche und Flüchtlinge als Täter und Opfer, January 2018".

Your link said after a drop in violent crime after 2007 there was a big surge in violent crime from 2014 until the end of 2016, but according to actual police statistics it was not so big. In fact despite the huge influx of asylum seekers violent crime has dropped by around 15% since 2007, see below.
Name:  crimeStatisric.jpg
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The newspaper report claims there has been a marked increase in crime however the graph above does not confirm this
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  #866  
Old 17.06.2018, 11:17
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

I remember discussing this on EF not so long ago

France, Italy push for migrant processing centres in Africa

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  #867  
Old 17.06.2018, 13:19
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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I remember discussing this on EF not so long ago

France, Italy push for migrant processing centres in Africa
In principle no different from how the US Global Entry system works in UK here.
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  #868  
Old 17.06.2018, 14:18
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

Both you and the sensational newspaper link you quote have both failed to understand both the Dublin III Regulation (No. 604/2013) and the ECJ decision.

The regulation allows countries to deport asylum seekers to the first EU border country they entered. Nowhere does it state that countries have to deport them.

Merkel took the decision not to deport Syrians who entered Germany.

The ECJ case you quote was about asylum seekers in Austria and Slovenia who did not want to be deported back to the first EU border country they entered. This case had nothing to do with either Merkel or Germany.
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  #869  
Old 18.06.2018, 18:23
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

The chairman of Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) said on Monday he was ready to turn away at the German border migrants registered in other European Union states if Chancellor Angela Merkel does not seal an EU migrants deal later this month.

"But we stick to our position that should the immediate rejection at the border not be possible, I would immediately order the police that people who either have prohibition of entry or prohibition of stay should be immediately turned away at the border," he said.

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Empty threat since due to Schengen the German borders have not been manned for years; where he will manage to conjure up a few thousands of police to man the borders is not explained
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  #870  
Old 18.06.2018, 18:50
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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The problem with discussing newspaper reports of scientific studies is the journalists cherry pick.

So I decided to read the original study "Zur Entwicklung der Gewalt in Deutschland. Schwerpunkte: Jugendliche und Flüchtlinge als Täter und Opfer, January 2018".

Your link said after a drop in violent crime after 2007 there was a big surge in violent crime from 2014 until the end of 2016, but according to actual police statistics it was not so big. In fact despite the huge influx of asylum seekers violent crime has dropped by around 15% since 2007, see below.
Attachment 133545

The newspaper report claims there has been a marked increase in crime however the graph above does not confirm this

Looking at that graph, it seems to me that the biggest year on year increase is actually what you refer to as being non significant.

How much increase would in your view count as significant?
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  #871  
Old 18.06.2018, 18:57
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Empty threat since due to Schengen the German borders have not been manned for years; where he will manage to conjure up a few thousands of police to man the borders is not explained
You're right, he's bluffing. Unless he deploys the army or something drastic like that.

But just imagine if Merkel were to call his bluff.

The entire government would have to admit that they are not actually in control of the situation.

Not long ago they were heavily crtiticizing Orban & Co for taking drastic measures to control a seemingly uncontrollable situation. Germany's inability to achieve a controllable border would mean eating a lot of humble pie.
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Old 18.06.2018, 21:01
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Looking at that graph, it seems to me that the biggest year on year increase is actually what you refer to as being non significant.

How much increase would in your view count as significant?
Well the newspaper article we are discussing did claim the crime increase from 2014 to 2016 was 10% whereas in reality it was ca. 7%, from 180,955 to 193,542.

Edit: Anyway irrelevant, crime fell 5.1% in 2017 according to the Govt PCS report so 2016 was just a blip,

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  #873  
Old 19.06.2018, 08:48
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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BERLIN (Reuters) - Young male refugees in Germany got the blame on Wednesday for most of a two-year increase in violent crime, adding fuel to the country’s political debate over migrants.

Violent crime rose by about 10 percent in 2015 and 2016, a study showed. It attributed more than 90 percent of that to young male refugees.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-e...-idUSKBN1ES16J

A big problem is that alot of the "refugees" coming in are young men, which on average commit more crimes than other age/gender groups.

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"A small group is in every part of the world extremely dangerous - young men between 14 and 30. They commit 70 percent of most criminal activities. This group of males makes up for 37 percent of all refugees," making the crime rate among immigrants much higher, Pfeiffer says. "This explains why 100 Germans will have a lower crime rate compared to 100 refugees, because among Germans, the people are older and there are more women, he explains." This age group is also the reason why more sexual assaults are being reported, Pfeiffer adds.
http://www.dw.com/en/are-refugees-mo...zen/a-38371284
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  #874  
Old 19.06.2018, 09:07
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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You're right, he's bluffing. Unless he deploys the army or something drastic like that.

But just imagine if Merkel were to call his bluff.

The entire government would have to admit that they are not actually in control of the situation.

Not long ago they were heavily crtiticizing Orban & Co for taking drastic measures to control a seemingly uncontrollable situation. Germany's inability to achieve a controllable border would mean eating a lot of humble pie.
I don't think they are even considering approaching that problem (let aside saying there is one, actually). They will generously and kindly let Italy deal with it. Merkel holds on to her reputation that she imagines she still has with her voters.


This was so clear to V4, a year or two ago. Who was called the mean guy? Does Italy care for being called the mean guy now?

Does Macron know or Spain where they will be creating places for those guys they fished out. France has been busy closing unsanitary and illegal camps. This is all a matter of time Macron is trying to buy before there are human conditions for already existing situations. Poorer members of the EU do not have the time. So they are blamed for this migrantion bar trade Ger/Fr is still engaging in. Italy has 40 000 Roma to worry about, integrate and sponsor, on top. I wouldn't call them mean because they prioritize the way they are forced to. I think the EU might mean well but the way the rupture is not being repaired, individual states bullied into submission without being listened to...definitely not unity nor union these days. The crater is getting bigger and it is not Italy's/Aus fault nor V4's.

I have a feeling the EU will manipulate potential new members into accepting certain conditions that the rest of the legit members are refusing. Turkey and Greece gave Markel an appetite, Italy isn't in the same position.
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Last edited by MusicChick; 19.06.2018 at 09:18.
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  #875  
Old 19.06.2018, 09:27
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Well the newspaper article we are discussing did claim the crime increase from 2014 to 2016 was 10% whereas in reality it was ca. 7%, from 180,955 to 193,542.

Edit: Anyway irrelevant, crime fell 5.1% in 2017 according to the Govt PCS report so 2016 was just a blip,

So a 7 percent rise is not significant in your view.

I jut wanted to establish clarity there. Might be useful to come back to in some other context.
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Old 19.06.2018, 09:33
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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So a 7 percent rise is not significant in your view.

I jut wanted to establish clarity there. Might be useful to come back to in some other context.
But it would not be relevant in another context, one year does not establish a trend

Definition "context"
NOUN
The circumstances that form the setting for an event, statement, or idea, and in terms of which it can be fully understood.
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Old 19.06.2018, 09:34
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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I don't think they are even considering approaching that problem (let aside saying there is one, actually). They will generously and kindly let Italy deal with it. Merkel holds on to her reputation that she imagines she still has with her voters.


This was so clear to V4, a year or two ago. Who was called the mean guy? Does Italy care for being called the mean guy now?

Does Macron know or Spain where they will be creating places for those guys they fished out. France has been busy closing unsanitary and illegal camps. This is all a matter of time Macron is trying to buy before there are human conditions for already existing situations. Poorer members of the EU do not have the time. So they are blamed for this migrantion bar trade Ger/Fr is still engaging in. Italy has 40 000 Roma to worry about, integrate and sponsor, on top. I wouldn't call them mean because they prioritize the way they are forced to. I think the EU might mean well but the way the rupture is not being repaired, individual states bullied into submission without being listened to...definitely not unity nor union these days. The crater is getting bigger and it is not Italy's/Aus fault nor V4's.

I have a feeling the EU will manipulate potential new members into accepting certain conditions that the rest of the legit members are refusing. Turkey and Greece gave Markel an appetite, Italy isn't in the same position.
Spain is just grandstanding, with no regard for the consequences. Sanchez is now even talking about dismantling the fences in Ceuta and Melilla. I know a family from Ceuta. Things are pretty bad there already and without the fence it would be terrible.
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Old 19.06.2018, 14:39
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

Latest INSA poll shows that if the old CDU / CSU alliance were to break, and CSU were to field candidates in all of Germany, they would emerge as second strongest party at 18%, behind the "rest of CDU" at 22% and ahead of the SPD at 17%. AfD would lose heavily and be down to 11 percent (from about 16% today).

I don't think this would actually happen, mind you, but it definitely emboldens Seehofer in standing up to Merkel and telling her he doesn't have to go along with everything she says.
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Old 19.06.2018, 14:42
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Empty threat since due to Schengen the German borders have not been manned for years; where he will manage to conjure up a few thousands of police to man the borders is not explained
IIRC checking persons systematically at the border is forbidden by the Schengen agreement.
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You're right, he's bluffing. Unless he deploys the army or something drastic like that.
The German army is under federal authority, not the individual state's.
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Old 19.06.2018, 14:46
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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The German army is under federal authority, not the individual state's.
He is a federal minister, not a Bavarian minsiter.
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