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  #1061  
Old 04.09.2018, 11:57
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

I don't see how the recent influx of ME/African migrants will help EU's economy, in fact it appears to be a drain on it. The migrants who are not allowed asylum are given food, shelter and money at the EU's expense, and then when rejected get returned to their country of origin, again at the EU's expense. Or the "disappear" and live on the streets doing illegal jobs, etc. again, not benefiting anyone (except those who are looking for 10 EUR sex maybe).

The ones who are awarded asylum status win an all expense paid vacation in EU! They don't have to work, get free everything, and eventually can probably even get the "right" to bring their family over as well. Some eventually do learn the language, and a work skill, and do contribute, but even the long-term stats of asylum seekers 10+ years on don't look very good. I mean a low-level job and living on social help is not a big difference, so why even bother, right?

To make the argument that unskilled asylum seekers will help solve the future pension scheme is ridiculous. It's the reverse, it's going to be an even bigger drain on the governments social welfare costs!
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  #1062  
Old 04.09.2018, 13:48
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Exactly, the Norway Pension Fund is an excellent idea.
Sadly the other countries never had the surplus money to start such a thing and it is now far too late for them.
Nonsense - if governments didnt "have to" expand the welfare state massively hiring enormous numbers of teachers , translators , police and social workers to cope with your massive inflow of unskilled labour then they'd have massive surpluses - as rainer said the courage to invest that money wisely is all that's missing.

Your approach towards keeping the ponzi scheme going is testament to your the moral and logical bankruptcy of your thinking.
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  #1063  
Old 04.09.2018, 13:55
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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I don't see how the recent influx of ME/African migrants will help EU's economy, in fact it appears to be a drain on it. The migrants who are not allowed asylum are given food, shelter and money at the EU's expense, and then when rejected get returned to their country of origin, again at the EU's expense. Or the "disappear" and live on the streets doing illegal jobs, etc. again, not benefiting anyone (except those who are looking for 10 EUR sex maybe).

The ones who are awarded asylum status win an all expense paid vacation in EU! They don't have to work, get free everything, and eventually can probably even get the "right" to bring their family over as well. Some eventually do learn the language, and a work skill, and do contribute, but even the long-term stats of asylum seekers 10+ years on don't look very good. I mean a low-level job and living on social help is not a big difference, so why even bother, right?

To make the argument that unskilled asylum seekers will help solve the future pension scheme is ridiculous. It's the reverse, it's going to be an even bigger drain on the governments social welfare costs!
"I don't see how the recent influx of ME/African migrants will help EU's economy" You are confusing refugees with migrants

Anyway the refugee situation in Germany is far better than you claim!

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More than 300,000 refugees have now found jobs in Germany
These people mainly come from eight crisis-torn countries, including Syria, Iraq, Somalia, and Eritrea.

Detlef Scheele, head of the labor office. “Everything is going well, These are positive numbers, particularly when you consider that we are talking about people who came here for humanitarian reasons, not necessarily to find work.”
Source
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  #1064  
Old 04.09.2018, 14:45
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Nonsense - if governments didnt "have to" expand the welfare state massively hiring enormous numbers of teachers , translators , police and social workers to cope with your massive inflow of unskilled labour then they'd have massive surpluses - as rainer said the courage to invest that money wisely is all that's missing.

Your approach towards keeping the ponzi scheme going is testament to your the moral and logical bankruptcy of your thinking.
Mathematics is not your strong point is it?

The Norwegian pension fund is worth around 1$ Trillion for a country with 5 million people.
Germany has 80 million people so how large a pension fund would be needed? 15$ Trillion?

German estimates of support for refugees is around 15 billion euro per year so even if they could invest all of that in a pension fund then how many centuries will be needed to fill the fund?

Anyway German Govt. annual spending on pensions is currently around 100 Billion euro per year so the refugee costs are peanuts comparatively .
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  #1065  
Old 04.09.2018, 15:10
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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"I don't see how the recent influx of ME/African migrants will help EU's economy" You are confusing refugees with migrants
Does Germany allow in "migrants" from ME/Africa? I thought they were supposed to be sent back? Unless you mean Africans/ME people who are are skilled workers and legally applying for jobs? (Which I assume would be very few?)

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Anyway the refugee situation in Germany is far better than you claim!
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This is just giving one month worth of stats coupled with a positive spin, the full picture seems to be missing here. How many refugees in Germany are currently living off social help versus how many are employed?
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  #1066  
Old 04.09.2018, 20:04
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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This is exactly why Germany needs more immigrants to work and to pay taxes to support pensions.

China has exactly the same problem of paying pensions due to their single child policy.
Creating jobs in Africa or in their home countries may well be a good social policy but does not help their own looming problem of how to fund their pensioners.
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  #1067  
Old 04.09.2018, 20:08
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Mathematics is not your strong point is it?

The Norwegian pension fund is worth around 1$ Trillion for a country with 5 million people.
Germany has 80 million people so how large a pension fund would be needed? 15$ Trillion?

German estimates of support for refugees is around 15 billion euro per year so even if they could invest all of that in a pension fund then how many centuries will be needed to fill the fund?

Anyway German Govt. annual spending on pensions is currently around 100 Billion euro per year so the refugee costs are peanuts comparatively .
Neither math nor truth are apparently strong points of yours

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Johannes Singhammer, Vice President of the German parliament, told Die Welt: “[The figures] show that if the costs are added up for all federal states, around €23bn (£20bn) has probably been spent on migrants and refugees in 2016.”

The four states recorded have taken around a third of asylum seekers currently living in Germany, where more than a million have arrived since the start of the refugee crisis in 2015.
You may not be aware that pension funds are built up over a long period - saving the 23bn per year now would be an admirable start.
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  #1068  
Old 04.09.2018, 21:32
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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This is just giving one month worth of stats coupled with a positive spin, the full picture seems to be missing here. How many refugees in Germany are currently living off social help versus how many are employed?
Google is your friend
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  #1069  
Old 04.09.2018, 21:50
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Does Germany allow in "migrants" from ME/Africa? I thought they were supposed to be sent back? Unless you mean Africans/ME people who are are skilled workers and legally applying for jobs? (Which I assume would be very few?)
It is difficult to answer your question when your terms are not clearly defined.

In 2016, around 3.4 million first residence permits were issued in the EU-28 to nationals of non-member countries.
Around 470 thousand of the 3.4 million first residence permits were issued to asylum seekers.
835 thousand first residence permits were issued for employment reasons and as you are interested in the number of Africans/ME people getting such permits for employment reasons you can dig into the database here.
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  #1070  
Old 04.09.2018, 21:57
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Neither math nor truth are apparently strong points of yours

You may not be aware that pension funds are built up over a long period - saving the 23bn per year now would be an admirable start.
2016 was an exception and so not a good basis for estimating ongoing costs, here is the 2018 budget with the actual figures for refugee support
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significant financial relief of €6.8bn for Land and local governments, and €8bn in federal spending on integration measures and social transfers.
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  #1071  
Old 05.09.2018, 08:03
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

It's just incredible how Merkel can cling onto power when these stories just keep on coming.

'Too young to prosecute': German police drop case of 10yo Afghan boy who raped classmate
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  #1072  
Old 05.09.2018, 09:28
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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It's just incredible how Merkel can cling onto power when these stories just keep on coming.

'Too young to prosecute': German police drop case of 10yo Afghan boy who raped classmate

To be fair, Germany has a different view on this than the US.


The German judicial system has no provisions for offenders as young as him - and there's no pressure to change that.
Kids at that age can't be expected to act responsibly. No point in putting a ten-year old in a prison cell.



I haven't followed the case too closely, but last I read was that the offenders (the actual rapist and the two who restrained the victim) are no longer at the school. The rapists is believed to need special counseling and will likely never be able to attend a "normal" school again. The victim will also never return to his current school.


This is a case where nobody wins, regardless of what you do. I hope that for their own sanity as well as for society as a whole, all parties involved can overcome this incident.
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  #1073  
Old 05.09.2018, 10:01
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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To be fair, Germany has a different view on this than the US.

The German judicial system has no provisions for offenders as young as him - and there's no pressure to change that.
Kids at that age can't be expected to act responsibly. No point in putting a ten-year old in a prison cell.

I haven't followed the case too closely, but last I read was that the offenders (the actual rapist and the two who restrained the victim) are no longer at the school. The rapists is believed to need special counseling and will likely never be able to attend a "normal" school again. The victim will also never return to his current school.

This is a case where nobody wins, regardless of what you do. I hope that for their own sanity as well as for society as a whole, all parties involved can overcome this incident.
Perhaps it's time for a law change then. If they're mature enough to understand that they were doing something seriously wrong, and given the nature of the crime they are, then they should be tried, locked up and then kicked out. There used to be a similar view to treating minors in the UK, but then James Bulger happened.
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  #1074  
Old 05.09.2018, 10:21
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Perhaps it's time for a law change then. If they're mature enough to understand that they were doing something seriously wrong, and given the nature of the crime they are, then they should be tried, locked up and then kicked out. There used to be a similar view to treating minors in the UK, but then James Bulger happened.
This is preciely where I see a real danger.

There are no doubt reasons the law is as it is, pondered upon by experts with decades of legal experience as well as understanding of education and child deverlopment. Then discussed in commitees and some workable compromise hacked out.

The government's unwillingness to act on recent events, backed up by the renitence of vast swathes of both both government and opposition to even want to consider changing the law, is fuelling populists and polariszing the discussion.

It is turning waht was once a common sense compromise into a political battleground.

This has been happening in the US for at least a decade. The result is that you get a lot of crackpot legislation that doesn't really change anything but only serves to harvest applause from polarized groups. The dysfunction such laws create further splits society and opens more cracks for further botched laws.

In this way, it's not the refugees themselves or primary questions such as how many should we take and how much money should we spend on them that are doing the real damage, but these secondary discussions that are spiralling out of that.

Last edited by amogles; 05.09.2018 at 11:30.
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Old 05.09.2018, 10:28
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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It's just incredible how Merkel can cling onto power when these stories just keep on coming.
?

Germany's making an omelette, and the boy is a sacrificial egg.
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  #1076  
Old 05.09.2018, 10:56
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Perhaps it's time for a law change then. If they're mature enough to understand that they were doing something seriously wrong, and given the nature of the crime they are, then they should be tried, locked up and then kicked out. There used to be a similar view to treating minors in the UK, but then James Bulger happened.
The age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales is still 10 years old, children between 10 and 17 can be arrested and taken to court if they commit a crime.
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  #1077  
Old 05.09.2018, 11:05
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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2016 was an exception and so not a good basis for estimating ongoing costs, here is the 2018 budget with the actual figures for refugee support
No link huh ?? So more more makey uppy stuff from you ...

As per Sweden the labour participation rates of Non EU migrants is far below that of natives as Dr. Tino Sanandaji - as per the Swedish casepoints out here :

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TS: That’s exactly right. Any society is going to have an absorption capacity given the size of the labor market, schools, economic prospects, housing and so on. With a smaller number this is quite doable, but with many more immigrants it becomes much more difficult. And this is a cumulative process. It has been going on for three decades now.

I like to look at things like gaps in employment, income and school results. If we start with the first one, in the age group 20-64 82% of native born Swedes are employed compared to only 58% of immigrants. That is a huge gap right there. It has remained constant going back to 2000, and even slightly increased compared to 1990.

We see the same thing happening with income, in that immigrants on average earn 40% less than the natives, which is also worse than in 1990. And if you look at school results, you find a massive gap yet again: 9% of the natives don’t qualify to go to high-school after 9th grade, compared to around 30% for those of immigrant origin.

So you have these major gaps that have been very persistent over time and rank among the highest in the developed world. If you look at the employment gap, it is the highest in the OECD, and because the group keeps growing as a percentage of total the problem for society becomes bigger and bigger.
As to net cost - (not income) per refugee on the country over lifetime - that is after considering that some of them will eventually join the workforce and begin to contribute more than they take :

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There have been studies done for Denmark and Norway and if you for the sake of the argument take the average of these two countries as the right number for Sweden: US$300,000 discounted net lifetime cost per migrant (although this is an inexact guess since we lack Swedish estimates). That comes out at US$30 billion, which is not an insignificant number for a country with 10 million people.

Let me give you a different number which is easier to compare. Just the initial cost for those asylum seekers is 1.5% of our GDP, significantly higher than our defense budget at around 1%. And that does not count the net costs associated with housing, health, welfare spending and so forth that arise later.

But much more meaningful than the defense budget is the UNHCR budget for the 60 million refugees displaced around the world. And just those initial costs that Sweden spent in 2015 were twice the UN’s funding! The left likes to talk about the privileged 1%, but the 0.3% of refugees that made it to Sweden got twice as much resources as the 99.7% displaced around the world.
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  #1078  
Old 05.09.2018, 11:24
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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No link huh ?? So more more makey uppy stuff from you ...

As per Sweden the labour participation rates of Non EU migrants is far below that of natives as Dr. Tino Sanandaji - as per the Swedish casepoints out here :

As to net cost - (not income) per refugee on the country over lifetime - that is after considering that some of them will eventually join the workforce and begin to contribute more than they take :
Forgot the German budget link.

Why are you posting about Sweden here and not in the Sweden thread?
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  #1079  
Old 05.09.2018, 11:26
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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?

Germany's making an omelette, and the boy is a sacrificial egg.
And the egg is on Merkel's face, so she can't finish the omelette.
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Old 05.09.2018, 11:27
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Re: Do you believe in Merkel?

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Forgot the German budget link.

Why are you posting about Sweden here and not in the Sweden thread?
says the guy who just posted something about ctiminal law in England and Wales.

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The age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales is still 10 years old, children between 10 and 17 can be arrested and taken to court if they commit a crime.
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