The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	3Wishes
	Is it just me, or does it seem like the extension to 31 Oct was not such a great idea after all? When the threat of no-deal was lurking, MPs and May seemed motivated to keep talking and keep voting, trying to come to some sort of compromise. Now, there doesn't seem to be any sense of urgency.

It is known as "kicking the can down the road"!

[marton]

Another poll!

	Quote:
	More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum If a second referendum were held between the options of leaving the EU on the prime minister’s deal or remaining in the EU, 46% say they would vote to remain (unchanged on a fortnight ago) while 34% would vote to leave (down 4%).

Ho Hum!

[Fish Paste]

	Quote:	3Wishes
	Is it just me, or does it seem like the extension to 31 Oct was not such a great idea after all? When the threat of no-deal was lurking, MPs and May seemed motivated to keep talking and keep voting, trying to come to some sort of compromise. Now, there doesn't seem to be any sense of urgency.

It will pick up again now.

We have Corbyn (Leave) and May (Remain) both pooling their vast experience and negotiating skills, not to mention Diane Abbot.

What can possibly go wrong?

To be honest, I now think Brexit is a dead duck. Somehow it will be revoked or be so light, it could be compared with a very light thing.

There is nothing to fear from the proles, as both main parties have basically fecked themselves so are no worse off than each other.

[marton]

Eurozone economy picks up in Q1, growth doubles to 0.4%, unemployment across the region fell to its lowest level since the global financial crisis.
Italy's economy emerges from recession as Spain leads eurozone recovery, Spanish GDP expanded by 0.7% in the first three months of this year.

All surprisingly good news! So no recession in view!

[Jim2007]

Time for a bit of a 😂

	Quote:
	Speaking at the Women in Media Conference in Ballybunion, Co Kerry, Mr Ahern (former Irish PM) described Mr Rees-Mogg as a "lovely fella when he's asleep". When asked by MEP Mairead McGuinness (VP of European Parliament) "how do you know?", he replied: "When he's awake, he definitely is a strange fish I tell you, in and out of the water.

Best R-M could come up with is:

	Quote:
	”Perhaps Ireland had a comedian as its leader before Ukraine," he said, a reference to the recent election of Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

The thing is we Irish expect politicians to provide a bit of entertainment during political debates!

[SponPlague]

	Quote:	marton
	Eurozone economy picks up in Q1, growth doubles to 0.4%, unemployment across the region fell to its lowest level since the global financial crisis. Italy's economy emerges from recession as Spain leads eurozone recovery, Spanish GDP expanded by 0.7% in the first three months of this year. All surprisingly good news! So no recession in view!

Hmm. https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpre...ic-depression/

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	Eurozone economy picks up in Q1, growth doubles to 0.4%, unemployment across the region fell to its lowest level since the global financial crisis. Italy's economy emerges from recession as Spain leads eurozone recovery, Spanish GDP expanded by 0.7% in the first three months of this year. All surprisingly good news! So no recession in view!

The future looks good too. With only 30% youth unemployment, the 132% national debt will be paid back in no time.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	The future looks good too. With only 30% youth unemployment, the 132% national debt will be paid back in no time.

You forgot to mention that Ireland’s national debt fell from 131% to 68% over the same period, while the UK is at 87%. Does not fit with your little narrative though does it. Individual states and governments are primarily responsible for their economic state and blaming the EU does not fly.

When Ireland hit the economic crisis the people put the blame where it should be their own government and punished them. People in the UK would do well to do the same and stop blaming everyone else for their situation.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	You forgot to mention that Ireland’s national debt fell from 131% to 68% over the same period, while the UK is at 87%. Does not fit with your little narrative though does it. Individual states and governments are primarily responsible for their economic state and blaming the EU does not fly. When Ireland hit the economic crisis the people put the blame where it should be their own government and punished them. People in the UK would do well to do the same and stop blaming everyone else for their situation.

UK is doing fine, who is blaming whom for performing above EU average?

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	You forgot to mention that Ireland’s national debt fell from 131% to 68% over the same period, while the UK is at 87%. Does not fit with your little narrative though does it. Individual states and governments are primarily responsible for their economic state and blaming the EU does not fly. When Ireland hit the economic crisis the people put the blame where it should be their own government and punished them. People in the UK would do well to do the same and stop blaming everyone else for their situation.

I didn't blame the EU, just presented some facts. I also don't understand your Ireland obsession as my post has absolutely nothing to do with Ireland.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	I also don't understand your Ireland obsession as my post has absolutely nothing to do with Ireland.

...said the Dutchman to the Irishman. I'm sure there's a joke in there somewhere.

In other news,

	Quote:
	Sky News understands that the Department for Transport has cancelled the no deal ferry contracts it signed in the run up to 29 March at a cost of around £50m to the taxpayer.In the run-up to what was supposed to be Brexit day, the DfT arranged contracts worth tens of millions of pounds to carry essential freight and goods in the event of a no deal Brexit.

https://news.sky.com/story/governmen...ayers-11708377


It almost makes you long for the days when MPs were fiddling their expenses to pay for "essential dovecotes".

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	https://news.sky.com/story/governmen...ayers-11708377 It almost makes you long for the days when MPs were fiddling their expenses to pay for "essential dovecotes".

May's specification was "everything's possible, including a no-deal Brexit".

Had the DfT not prepared for no-deal, they' be blamed in case of no-deal happening.
Since the DfT did prepare for no-deal, they're now blamed for the payments that turned out to be unnecessary.

Apparently the government will always be criticised regardless of what they do and no matter the outcome.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	May's specification was "everything's possible, including a no-deal Brexit". Had the DfT not prepared for no-deal, they' be blamed in case of no-deal happening. Since the DfT did prepare for no-deal, they're now blamed for the payments that turned out to be unnecessary. Apparently the government will always be criticised regardless of what they do and no matter the outcome.

well at least one of the ferry companies they 'hired' didn't have any ferries, or any port space, and the port they said they where supposed to be going to didn't know anything about it, and on their hastily uploaded website they'd copied their t&c's from a pizza delivery company

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...deliver-pizzas


so about right really for this government, a nice little earner

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	well at least one of the ferry companies they 'hired' didn't have any ferries, or any port space, and the port they said they where supposed to be going to didn't know anything about it, and on their hastily uploaded website they'd copied their t&c's from a pizza delivery company https://www.theguardian.com/politics...deliver-pizzas so about right really for this government, a nice little earner

That's not what blueangel criticised them for.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	That's not what blueangel criticised them for.

?? except its one of the no deal ferry companies they hired and had to pay a huge amount of money to even though the company was nothing more then a crap website. so yes, exactly what they where being criticised for

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	That's not what blueangel criticised them for.

I didn't actually criticise the government. My comment was in regards to the way we view how MPs spend taxpayers money. There was rightful outrage over the MPs expenses scandal, but the current figures regarding failed deals is astronomical by comparison, and that's just with this one element of Brexit 'planning'. There was also the huge £33 million compensation to Eurotunnel.

If you want real criticism, there are several angles on this story, the major ones being Remainers like me who just see Grayling wasting millions hand over fist with everything he touches, and the Brexiteers who are seeing this as an indication that ''no deal' isn't going to happen.

The recent local council elections seem to have provided a barometer for the feeling towards the current main parties. Ouch!

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48091592

[marton]

	Quote:
	The recent local council elections seem to have provided a barometer for the feeling towards the current main parties. Ouch! https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48091592

But difficult to figure out what that feeling is!

Cons have lost about a quarter of their seats in the results so far which can be interpreted as punishment for not delivering Brexit.
The LibDems have doubled their seats in results so far and they are pushing Remain so contradictory to the Cons result.
So maybe the voting is nothing to do with the Brexit?

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	But difficult to figure out what that feeling is! Cons have lost about a quarter of their seats in the results so far which can be interpreted as punishment for not delivering Brexit. The LibDems have doubled their seats in results so far and they are pushing Remain so contradictory to the Cons result. So maybe the voting is nothing to do with the Brexit?

I guess if there was a serious push to punish Tories for not delivering Brexit, that would benefit UKIP. In fact UKIP are also seriously down, which would contradict that interpretation.

Those statistics also show a very strong showing of the category "other".

When "other" turns out to be so important, it might be useful to have a further breakdown of who that is and what they are about. We can only guess.

Furthermore, local elections are also partially about local issues. In fact they should be totally about local issues, but unfortunately voters don't always think that way. So whereas they may give a rough idea of which way the wind is blowing, it can be dangerous to read too much into them.

The LDs are typically stronger on a local level than on a national level.

The upcoming EU elections will be the real test. The PR nature of those elections means they give a more accurate picture of what people want. And the big question will be whether the Tories manage to avoid annihilation.

	Quote:	marton
	But difficult to figure out what that feeling is! Cons have lost about a quarter of their seats in the results so far which can be interpreted as punishment for not delivering Brexit. The LibDems have doubled their seats in results so far and they are pushing Remain so contradictory to the Cons result. So maybe the voting is nothing to do with the Brexit?

	Quote:	amogles
	I guess if there was a serious push to punish Tories for not delivering Brexit, that would benefit UKIP. In fact UKIP are also seriously down, which would contradict that interpretation. Those statistics also show a very strong showing of the category "other". When "other" turns out to be so important, it might be useful to have a further breakdown of who that is and what they are about. We can only guess. Furthermore, local elections are also partially about local issues. In fact they should be totally about local issues, but unfortunately voters don't always think that way. So whereas they may give a rough idea of which way the wind is blowing, it can be dangerous to read too much into them. The LDs are typically stronger on a local level than on a national level. The upcoming EU elections will be the real test. The PR nature of those elections means they give a more accurate picture of what people want. And the big question will be whether the Tories manage to avoid annihilation.

Depending on how much you read into journalists doorstepping people for a soundbite, it would seem there was a lot of ill feeling towards the two main parties on a Westminster level. Local politics appears to have taken a back seat in this instance, with the preference going towards bloodying the noses of May and Corbyn.

I think they made a big mistake last week telling people to "disregard Brexit" (JRM?) for these elections which was the political equivalent of shining a massive spotlight on a dog turd and saying "pretend it's not there".

Tory and Labour candidates have been quoted as being reluctant to canvas door to door because they just get pilloried on Brexit so feeling definitely runs to local level.