The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	They want a vote on Scottish independence which they want to win. And then they will start on long and protracted negotiations to join the EU on their own terms, which basically means being out of the EU for a long time.

They don't need to apply for EU membership, they could apply for EFTA membership and then make use of the EEA agreement. And in any case their negotiations to join the EU would be very short because they are already in full compliance with EU rules.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	They don't need to apply for EU membership, they could apply for EFTA membership and then make use of the EEA agreement. And in any case their negotiations to join the EU would be very short because they are already in full compliance with EU rules.

Havent the remainders repeatedly said the UK cannot simply quit now and then quickly rejoin later if the going gets tough, because, yeah, the UK benefits from exceptions and special arrangements that will never be made available to new members.

So if that isn’t the case, Brexit should be nothing to be scared of as it can all be reversed at the flick of a switch? Right?

[amogles]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Allow me: *clears throat* “but the combined total of Lib Dem’s, Change UK, Green, flying unicorn party beat the Brexit party! This is clearly and mandate to revoke art 50! And the turnout, don’t forget turnout!!”

And all the people who have died since they voted, or will die at some point in the future. Don’t forget them.

I know it’s only a single poll but Lord Ashcroft's poll reckons that among those who voted on Thursday, the referendum vote was almost 53-47 Remain. Or to cut it the other way, turnout was about 10 points higher among Remainers than among Leavers. Food for thought.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/0...eir-new-party/

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	They don't need to apply for EU membership, they could apply for EFTA membership and then make use of the EEA agreement.

Won't happen, Norway has already said they'll veto such a membership request. Not that UK's potential EFTA membership would neceasarily be in the other's best interests as the UK is far bigger than the others combined.

Futhermore it wouldn't make sense at all. EFTA membership requires implementing EU laws and regulations that are relevant for the EEA without the ability to shape them, including (yet again) FMOP, and co-financing the EU budget. Last time I checked these were presented as the main reasons for Brexit.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Won't happen, Norway has already said they'll veto such a membership request. Not that UK's potential EFTA membership would neceasarily be in the other's best interests as the UK is far bigger than the others combined. Futhermore it wouldn't make sense at all. EFTA membership requires implementing EU laws and regulations that are relevant for the EEA without the ability to shape them, including (yet again) FMOP, and co-financing the EU budget. Last time I checked these were presented as the main reasons for Brexit.

This was about Scotland, not the UK.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Won't happen, Norway has already said they'll veto such a membership request. Not that UK's potential EFTA membership would neceasarily be in the other's best interests as the UK is far bigger than the others combined. Futhermore it wouldn't make sense at all. EFTA membership requires implementing EU laws and regulations that are relevant for the EEA without the ability to shape them, including (yet again) FMOP, and co-financing the EU budget. Last time I checked these were presented as the main reasons for Brexit.

I was responding to a comment about the situation of an independent Scotland...

Norway said the would veto a UK application on the basis of size, not a Scottish application. As a small nation, Scotland would be a good fit. And if the Scottish intention was EU membership in any case why would they have an issue with EU laws? In fact most of it would already be implemented.

Applying for EU membership is not their only option as someone people seem to think.

[greenmount]

I hope those people who voted Brexit will go home to their native UK and make it great again. Take back those jobs stolen by foreigners.
Otherwise, it's just hypocrisy. But you all would know that, wouldn't you?

	Quote:	greenmount
	I hope those people who voted Brexit will go home to their native UK and make it great again. Take back those jobs stolen by foreigners. Otherwise, it's just hypocrisy. But you all would know that, wouldn't you?

Not if you want to see the end of the EU.

More food for thought, 3 million odd EU nationals living in the UK. Makes you wonder what influence they had on the EU elections. They also can’t vote in national elections and referendums.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	More food for thought, 3 million odd EU nationals living in the UK. Makes you wonder what influence they had on the EU elections. They also can’t vote in national elections and referendums.

UK residents from Cyprus and Malta can vote in all UK elections as they are both EU and Commonwealth country nationals. UK residents from Commonwealth countries can vote in UK General elections, so you'd also have to factor in UK residents who are dual nationals with one EU and one Commonwealth nationality.

Before you think that would be a small number of people, amongst my family, close friends and former colleagues, that was the commonest combination of dual nationality, eg OH is Greek South African, best mate is Australian Croatian, French Canadian cousins and former colleagues, Italian Maltese boss, Australian Italian friends and colleagues, etc... The permutations are endless.

[amogles]

	Quote:	greenmount
	I hope those people who voted Brexit will go home to their native UK and make it great again. Take back those jobs stolen by foreigners. Otherwise, it's just hypocrisy. But you all would know that, wouldn't you?

I'm not realy sure what being a UK expat in Switzerland has to do with Brexit. There were plenty of Brits here before the UK even joined the EC.

[dandi]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	More food for thought, 3 million odd EU nationals living in the UK. Makes you wonder what influence they had on the EU elections. They also can’t vote in national elections and referendums.

Valid question - however I would think the number of non-UK EU nationals living in UK (i.e. those that can't vote in UK elections) that actually voted is probably quite small. I would think a majority of those would have voted in their native EU country's elections - as double-voting was not allowed.

You would also need to compare that number with the number of UK nationals living in the EU or elsewhere that would vote in previous or future referendums.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Not if you want to see the end of the EU.

And that is your problem - you put your own petty interests before that of your country and fellow citizens. But you are in good company because most of the BREXITEERS do the same.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	And that is your problem - you put your own petty interests before that of your country and fellow citizens. But you are in good company because most of the BREXITEERS do the same.

The end of the EU is what is best for Europe and its citizens.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	greenmount
	I hope those people who voted Brexit will go home to their native UK and make it great again. Take back those jobs stolen by foreigners. Otherwise, it's just hypocrisy. But you all would know that, wouldn't you?

I think this is definitely worth responding to, because it is really a very effective pro-brexit comment.

As I have said previously, I hope we stay within the EU and (as I expect) the whole EU Brexit piece will be quietly reversed. I am a "Remainer" as they say.

however, I do believe in fair arguments. If you look at your statement "go back to the UK to take jobs stolen by foreigners" its lying on so many different fronts that it does every time, without doubt, harden the resolve of educated, balanced brexiteers who are again accused of being racist thugs.

As I understand it, what is trying to be achieved is for the UK to exit the European Union and replace it with independent trade deals (also covering immigration policies) with countries around the world.

Currently, if you are outside the EU, you are subject to a skills test before a permit to work in the UK is provided. Rather like, well, Switzerland, for example.

If you are part of the EU, you are free to work in the UK without any permit requirement.

The wish is to move to a model where as skills assessment is needed for all countries who have someone who wishes to work in the UK. Therefore Doctors from Gambia or Germany will now be on a level playing field, as opposed to the Doctor from Germany being essentially free to move here without passing a skills assessment.

Therefore the headline "get back to the UK to take the foreigners jobs" is the response to a policy which logically seems to have some merits: allow people in who are ready to contribute to the economy. Instead the message is "you only want Brexit because you hate foreigners, go back to England and you can brick up the borders", which if I was a Brexit voter, would wind me right up and make me more determined to vote to leave.

As you are here, in Switzerland, would your message of "get back to Switzerland and take your jobs back" apply to Swiss people working in Europe ?

What I found amazing about the European Elections is that the people who don't want Brexit STILL said Remain had won, by adding up different combinations of figures. The effect of that will be to antagonize Brexit voters even more and make them only more determined to vote to leave.

Farage is quite possibly going to be PM after the next general election unless Remain supporting folk stop with just hurling insults at leave supporting voters that they are either thick, racist, nationalist or all three and started to be more constructive in their messaging.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Farage is quite possibly going to be PM after the next general election unless Remain supporting folk stop with just hurling insults at leave supporting voters that they are either thick, racist, nationalist or all three and started to be more constructive in their messaging.

I do not believe that any likely set of events will lead to Farage becoming PM.

But there are quite a few other scenarios playing out. Such as, if the Brexit party can show that it is here to stay and are not just a bubble of disorganized protest, that able and respected politicians from both Labour and the Tories will switch parties in significant numbers and this would automatically void the argument that the Brexit party are a bunch of clowns who don't have a clue about politics or running a country.

More likely though is that the Brexit party won't be able to replicate its EP success in a general election. Just as the old UKIP never managed to do that. The EP election shows, in my opinion, that people still don't take the EP seriously.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	amogles
	I do not believe that any likely set of events will lead to Farage becoming PM. But there are quite a few other scenarios playing out. Such as, if the Brexit party can show that it is here to stay and are not just a bubble of disorganized protest, that able and respected politicians from both Labour and the Tories will switch parties in significant numbers and this would automatically void the argument that the Brexit party are a bunch of clowns who don't have a clue about politics or running a country. More likely though is that the Brexit party won't be able to replicate its EP success in a general election. Just as the old UKIP never managed to do that. The EP election shows, in my opinion, that people still don't take the EP seriously.

This time, I am not so sure, it depends largely on whether Brexit happens. 52% of the country voted for Brexit last time (ignoring all the stuff about students and 16 year olds etc) which it would be fair to say were the voters who voted at the last General Election. If the current politicians conspire to stop Brexit then those 52% will be severely disenfranchised to say the least. The GE will come around and one party only will be saying "vote for us, its brexit". So you will lose voters from Labour and Conservative to Brexit party and you will keep the existing former UKIP crowd who have herded across. Even allowing for "spillage" you only have to get so far to be a serious force. Combine it with the fact you'll have a reduced Conservative, reduced labour vote because of this transfer, along with libdems increasing but not enough (maybe 5 to 15%) then they could well be the outright largest party, if not outright winner. in the event of the former its an alliance with a party who would work with them (tories) but this time with Farage as PM and whoever is leading the convervatives as the Nick Clegg equivalent taking it up the bottom but not being able to have any real say.

The fundamental difference is before it was all theory. now its real, the UK voted to leave, you can't ignore it even thought its a spectacular own goal.

[bowlie]

[Blueangel]

For anyone delusional enough to believe that Farage and the Brexit Party give a flying fig about democracy, there's a little video you might enjoy.


https://twitter.com/Channel4News/sta...73859170836480