The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

We are saved

	Quote:
	UK and South Korea agree on post-Brexit trade deal

Source

It has taken three years to agree a trade deal with a tin pot country, how long for larger countries!

[marton]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	And it would have been if, instead of faffing about trying to make a deal to leave, they'd just said we're leaving with no deal and then worked on getting the trade deals, etc, sorted out. They'd probably have all been in place by the time the 2 years ran out and transition would have gone smoothly.

The elephant in the room for this proposition is that Liam Fox said a Brexit lifetime ago on Oct. 2, 2017
"said Britain will simply copy and paste existing EU deals with third countries."
"The British government will immediately agree 40 free trade deals with other non-EU countries the minute Britain leaves the European Union in 2019".

There is no "instead", they were/are working on trade deals anyway.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	And it would have been if, instead of faffing about trying to make a deal to leave, they'd just said we're leaving with no deal and then worked on getting the trade deals, etc, sorted out. They'd probably have all been in place by the time the 2 years ran out and transition would have gone smoothly.

The only rational conclusion in a no-deal Brexit scenario is that the UK won't keep its side of the bargain, as that's what no-deal means WRT obligations entered into while the UK was still an EU member. That pulls the rug from under any kind of follow-on agreement with the EU, the UK's biggest economic partner and source of a sizeable portion of its GDP.

[marton]

Brexit hangover leaves UK nursing worst monthly contraction since 2016

According to the Office for National Statistics, Britain’s economy shrank by 0.4% in April, GDP contracted for second consecutive month.
Biggest fall in monthly GDP since 2016
Factory output contracted sharply, 3.9% drop in manufacturing; largest since 2002
Services stalled; construction also down.

May figures will show if this a serious downward trend or just a blip!

[SponPlague]

Tories on Deal or No Deal? Hmm...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W7ByGUFJeXQ&t=2s

	Quote:	marton
	We are saved Source It has taken three years to agree a trade deal with a tin pot country, how long for larger countries!

“Tin pot country”. 11th biggest economy in the world. 3rd biggest economy that the EU has a free trade deal with.

[greenmount]

Very impressed by the display of English nationalism tbh.

1025 of pages of so much love, pride, hate, everything in copious doses. I love this thread, keep it up guys.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	marton
	We are saved Source It has taken three years to agree a trade deal with a tin pot country, how long for larger countries!

South Korean companies:

Samsung Electronics: US$224.6 billion, up 29.1% from 2017.
Hyundai Motor: $85.9 billion, up 6.4%
SK Holdings: $82.5 billion, up 14.4%
LG Electronics: $55.7 billion, up 16.8%

[Mikers]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Very impressed by the display of English nationalism tbh. 1025 of pages of so much love, pride, hate, everything in copious doses. I love this thread, keep it up guys.

It’s the qualities that make the UK such a huge international success. Thanks for the compliment!

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Mikers
	It’s the qualities that make the UK such a huge international success. Thanks for the compliment!

The UK has not produced a positive balance of trade in about 20 years. And now you walk a way from trade deals covering 90% of your exports and preferential access to one of the richest trade blocks in the world, with the objective, according to Liam Fox, to wind up back in the same place...

An interesting definition of success.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	“Tin pot country”. 11th biggest economy in the world. 3rd biggest economy that the EU has a free trade deal with.

"11th biggest economy in the world." Exactly, "tin pot country".

The first 10 excluding UK are;
US Nominal GDP: $19.39 trillion. .
China Nominal GDP: $12.01 trillion. ...
Japan Nominal GDP: $4.87 trillion. ...
Germany Nominal GDP: $3.68 trillion. ... ...
India Nominal GDP: $2.61 trillion. ...
France Nominal GDP: $2.58 trillion. ...
Brazil Nominal GDP: $2.05 trillion.

South Korea GDP 1.531 trillion USD (2017) so about 1/30th of the others combined - “Tin pot country”

"3rd biggest economy that the EU has a free trade deal with" Just proves your recurring point that EU are crap??
Or are you now changing your story and claiming the EU is some "best" standard that the UK should aspire to??

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	The UK has not produced a positive balance of trade in about 20 years. And now you walk a way from trade deals covering 90% of your exports and preferential access to one of the richest trade blocks in the world, with the objective, according to Liam Fox, to wind up back in the same place... An interesting definition of success.

My comment wasn’t in relation to the economics Jim, it was to the pointless dig about Nationalism. Britain is hugely successful in many many areas, such as music, academia, the arts etc and this provides a suitable response to someone clearly trying to have a jibe at the national character.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	“Tin pot country”. 11th biggest economy in the world. 3rd biggest economy that the EU has a free trade deal with.

The UK-SK FTA replicates what's already in place between EU-SK, it took three years even though it was essentially a copy/paste job. And to be clear, it hasn't been ratified yet.

If anything, the deal demonstrates how far off reality claims like "we'll get deals done very quickly" actually were.

Entirely new FTAs will take much longer. And the UK will probably have to accept rather unfavorable terms, as shown by the US position paper.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	“Tin pot country”. 11th biggest economy in the world. 3rd biggest economy that the EU has a free trade deal with.

I think he mixed it up with Cambodia, which was a Pol Pot country.

	Quote:	Mikers
	My comment wasn’t in relation to the economics Jim, it was to the pointless dig about Nationalism. Britain is hugely successful in many many areas, such as music

Eurovision begs to differ! In the last 20 years, we've had one major selling artist, Adele, I don't think anybody else gets onto any top selling album charts worldwide.

	Quote:
	academia, the arts etc

Care to elaborate on these? Sounds disconcertingly vague. I'd say the Beeb has certainly had some success in the sphere of comedy, drama and documentaries in the last 20 years, but have we really had much (disproportionate amounts or even proportionate amounts of) success in academia and the arts? We've had a winner of a Physics nobel two years since 2000 and Chemistry three years, I think, that's not bad going I guess.

	Quote:
	We've had a winner of a Physics nobel two years since 2000 and Chemistry three years, I think, that's not bad going I guess.

That said, we've also produced Love Island, The Jeremy Kyle Show, Michael McIntyre and Mrs Brown's Boys, so we're still badly in cultural deficit.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Mikers
	It’s the qualities that make the UK such a huge international success. Thanks for the compliment!

And yet, you are living in Switzerland..

Plus the collective "We". I love it. Who's "we"? What are you doing and what's your worth? Are you sure the great people from your country would be happy to be associated with you (if all of them had lived)? Just a thought.

It is not a pointless dig about nationalism. Many people try to understand UK and the British people these days. Sorry if it bothers you.

[amogles]

	Quote:
	Care to elaborate on these? Sounds disconcertingly vague. I'd say the Beeb has certainly had some success in the sphere of comedy, drama and documentaries in the last 20 years, but have we really had much (disproportionate amounts or even proportionate amounts of) success in academia and the arts? We've had a winner of a Physics nobel two years since 2000 and Chemistry three years, I think, that's not bad going I guess.

It's all soft criteria of course and I guess one can agree to disagree.

But in my view London, for example, is still pretty much among the world's top cultural cities. I would say that London's museums collectively surpass those of New York or Paris. Berlin is spending billions trying to catch up and apart from the archeological musem (which is really world class), their stuff still sucks in comparison. In terms of books and succesful authors, Britain is right up there (of course the language helps). The BBC may have slipped a few rungs in terms of quality, neutrality and honesty, but so have the broadcatsers of other countries, so that still leaves the BBC in the lead. They are also still pretty succesful when it comes to exporting top-notch documentaries and things.

So i would say that Britain is still a strong cultural leader in many fields

	Quote:	amogles
	It's all soft criteria of course and I guess one can agree to disagree. But in my view London, for example, is still pretty much among the world's top cultural cities. I would say that London's museums collectively surpass those of New York or Paris. Berlin is spending billions trying to catch up and apart from the archeological musem (which is really world class), their stuff still sucks in comparison. In terms of books and succesful authors, Britain is right up there (of course the language helps). The BBC may have slipped a few rungs in terms of quality, neutrality and honesty, but so have the broadcatsers of other countries, so that still leaves the BBC in the lead. They are also still pretty succesful when it comes to exporting top-notch documentaries and things. So i would say that Britain is still a strong cultural leader in many fields

Wouldn't significantly dispute that.

Somehow it is also interesting that perhaps 95% of the people behind the stuff you are (rightly) praising are remainers.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Somehow it is also interesting that perhaps 95% of the people behind the stuff you are (rightly) praising are remainers.

Some may simply avoid biting the hand that feeds them. With a sufficiently large group that's virtually guaranteed to apply to some.