The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[k_and_e]

	Quote:
	Yes, I am aware of the regions and nations involved but it was the "obstacles" bit of your statement which needed further clarification.

https://www.google.ch/search?source=...00&safe=strict

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	This is truly bizarre. The notion that if Germany or Ireland end up worse affected, then it's all worth it (or at least justified), despite whatever negative effects the UK suffers. Beyond bonkers.

UK is not yet responsible for everyone else's debts, we don't own the other countries. Just like running a business, bankrupting your competitors never hurts.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	But that wasn't my point. The UK was ALREADY in the trading block of the EU, which already trades with the US and now the UK is choosing to leave. :

Being a member of the EU is very restrictive, it's not 'free trade' it's hugely protected market, that has huge disadvantages, hence the sensible decision to leave.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	correct EU countries cannot do side deals, it all EU or nothing.

That is huge disadvantage from my POV

[bowlie]

	Quote:
	I think it is the same point ? The idea is that outside the EU, as an independent single state, the UK can form trade relationships quickly and without the difficulty of having all member states agree. So it steps out of the EU (losing existing agreements under them) but then forms its own ones under the independent banner of the UK only, not requiring such a long negotiation for them because of the simplicity of having just one country negotiating.

In theory perhaps but as the Brexit negotiations have clearly shown, the Brits no longer have anyone who actually knows how to negotiate. Skills normally developed and honed over literally generations of civil servants simply no longer exist in the London bureaucracy. Those that could have retired or moved on to industry or on to Brussels.

Babes in the wood ...

	Quote:	k_and_e
	https://www.google.ch/search?source=...00&safe=strict

No idea what you are trying to demonstrate here. If you don't know and can't answer the question with words, just say so.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	UK is not yet responsible for everyone else's debts, we don't own the other countries. Just like running a business, bankrupting your competitors never hurts.

Still nobody has ever been able to list tangible ADVANTAGES apart from vague possibilities which very quickly turn into shouty outbursts of vague disadvantages of staying in the EU. It's just not enough to convince me that what is on the outside is better for the UK. Every deal has up and downsides to it so expecting the EU to be 100% rosy is a bit naive. Even more naive is expecting the US to be the 100% rosy trading partner Brexiters are looking for.

There are a bunch of clowns running the show, charging into a fog of uncertainty with not a sketch of a plan. Sorry, but if that were a business plan any bank would chuck it out.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	UK is not yet responsible for everyone else's debts, we don't own the other countries. Just like running a business, bankrupting your competitors never hurts.

Except they aren't your real competitors, or weren't anyway.

You're basically in a bar with your best mates, you all fancy a girl and have a big fight over her. Whilst that's going on, one of several larger, wealthier men in the room woos her.

Are you now:
a) Happy that although you didn't get the girl, as none of your mates did either.
b) Sad that you didn't get the girl and have now made such a tit of yourself that none of the other girls in the bar will go home with you now either.
c) Because of a) and b) willing to go home with a sheep that one of the bigger boys offered you as that's about the best you'll get now.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Except they aren't your real competitors, or weren't anyway. You're basically in a bar with your best mates, you all fancy a girl and have a big fight over her. Whilst that's going on, one of several larger, wealthier men in the room woos her. Are you now: a) Happy that although you didn't get the girl, as none of your mates did either. b) Sad that you didn't get the girl and have now made such a tit of yourself that none of the other girls in the bar will go home with you now either. c) Because of a) and b) willing to go home with a sheep that one of the bigger boys offered you as that's about the best you'll get now.

Thats the huge mistake you are making, they are our real competitors & they may be receiving subsidies to stay in business, those business's would otherwise fail enabling us to increase our prices.

[bigblue2]

the eu is what 520m people, the uk 70m? so who's going to get the better deal? it's really not that hard. Hmmm I can sell to 450m people with no issues at all, or, I can sell to 70m who use a currency no one else uses - who shall I negotiate with???

brexiters and the uk need to wake up and wake up FAST, the uk has nothing to offer post brexit, with a no deal the EU will kill its financial sector, the motor industry is deserting as quickly as possible, tariffs will kill anything that's left, the plummet of the pound really should be giving Boris a hint, no company that exports will want to be in the uk without a deal.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Thats the huge mistake you are making, they are our real competitors & they may be receiving subsidies to stay in business, those business's would otherwise fail enabling us to increase our prices.

Countries are receiving subsidies? How would that work...who would be giving countries subsidies?

Have you actually considered the implications of bankrupting other (esp neighbouring) countries? It REALLY isn't something you want to do.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Countries are receiving subsidies? How would that work...who would be giving countries subsidies? Have you actually considered the implications of bankrupting other (esp neighbouring) countries? It REALLY isn't something you want to do.

UK has the second highest net contribution so most of the countries.

Keeping bankrupt nations alive stuck to the EURO is suicide, far better to let natural selection take its course.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	UK has the second highest net contribution so most of the countries. Keeping bankrupt nations alive stuck to the EURO is suicide, far better to let natural selection take its course.

If you want WW3, sure.

You might need to re-read my analogy btw. The bigger nations swooping in and picking off our spoils were not EU countries.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	UK has the second highest net contribution so most of the countries. Keeping bankrupt nations alive stuck to the EURO is suicide, far better to let natural selection take its course.

It's just an opinion, though. Same as all the opinions about everything on this thread. Nobody is sure the UK is going to go tits up after Brexit in the same way nobody is sure it's going to flourish.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	3Wishes
	I could be wrong but...I think that the EU countries can't negotiate a lot of individual deals with other countries. So while the UK leaving means it can make deals with US, Canada, Vanuatu or whatever, it can't easily negotiate piecemeal deals with France, Germany, Poland, etc. because those countries are still bound to EU laws/trade deals. I think?

yes I agree so dealing with the EU will be under the same old difficulties, but it actually makes a good example: if right now we have a wonderful new thing to trade - we would have to work with the EU to have that added to any trade agreement i think. Outside the EU this restriction no longer exists.

Its both sides of a coin: we have less power, less sway, and as Marton said, probably less attractive pricing in any deal, however we can move and agree more quickly new deals.

	Quote:	Mikers
	yes I agree so dealing with the EU will be under the same old difficulties, but it actually makes a good example: if right now we have a wonderful new thing to trade - we would have to work with the EU to have that added to any trade agreement i think. Outside the EU this restriction no longer exists. Its both sides of a coin: we have less power, less sway, and as Marton said, probably less attractive pricing in any deal, however we can move and agree more quickly new deals.

I think the point of the EU free trade agreements, stablisation agreements, customs unions etc with other countries is that all goods do not incur import/export taxes, so if Britain invents a brand new widget, it can already go into all countries with which the EU has a trade agreement tariff free.

If Britain leaves the EU and invents said widget, any future trade deals would need to include said widget, which could obviously be an issue if the people in the reciprocal country are put out by such a widget.

[amogles]

	Quote:
	I think the point of the EU free trade agreements, stablisation agreements, customs unions etc with other countries is that all goods do not incur import/export taxes, so if Britain invents a brand new widget, it can already go into all countries with which the EU has a trade agreement tariff free.

Trade agreements are normally specific, for goods or categories of goods listed in said agreement. I've yet to see a trade agreement that includes the line "and for any other products or service yet to be invented".

	Quote:
	If Britain leaves the EU and invents said widget, any future trade deals would need to include said widget, which could obviously be an issue if the people in the reciprocal country are put out by such a widget.

More likely the EU would tell Britain, you cannot manufacture or market that because we haven't yet created the regulatory framework for it.

And with 28 countries full of boffins inventing widgets of different descriptions, the UK ones may have a long wait until that framework is actually drawn up.

	Quote:	amogles
	Trade agreements are normally specific, for goods or categories of goods listed in said agreement. I've yet to see a trade agreement that includes the line "and for any other products or service yet to be invented".

Please note the types of trade agreements I listed - free trade agreements and similar other deal types. The essence of these free trade agreements is that everything is covered bilaterally, tariff free.

	Quote:	amogles
	More likely the EU would tell Britain, you cannot manufacture or market that because we haven't yet created the regulatory framework for it. And with 28 countries full of boffins inventing widgets of different descriptions, the UK ones may have a long wait until that framework is actually drawn up.

Can you give any examples of where this has happened, or is it speculation? Surely what you describe there is a reason to stay in the EU anyway?

[bigblue2]

except at the moment if someone invents a widget in the uk they can freely sell it to everyone inside the EU no problem at all, 520m customers off the bat.

in future they'll only be able to sell it in the UK without jumping through hoops

[bigblue2]

you know this is one of the really dumb arguments leavers make, we can do our own trade deals!!

Are you that stupid you can't see the 'deal' we have in the EU is pretty sweet? the 'deals' they make (on our behalf) are pretty sweet, they can get pretty good deals due to the potential customer base, so the USA can't flood us with crap meat, china can't flood us with lead paint kids toys or fake baby milk etc etc

I'd love to know what sweet deals the uk can possibly make on its own, any trade deals with the USA are going to be totally one sided, I'm sure shipping crops over from america is more eco friendly then getting them from france (for example) and the USA have already said meat restrictions would have to be removed, and NHS deals would need to be on the table, so just think, we get flooded with US beef, how would that effect any EU deal??

[TobiasM]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	you know this is one of the really dumb arguments leavers make, we can do our own trade deals!!

Leavers only have pretty dumb answers and unsubstantiated claims.

	Quote:	bigblue2
	Are you that stupid you can't see the 'deal' we have in the EU is pretty sweet? the 'deals' they make (on our behalf) are pretty sweet, they can get pretty good deals due to the potential customer base

"tell our enemies that they may take our lives, but they'll never take... OUR FREEDOM" (William Wallace aka Mel Gibson) "oh that was Scotland" they won't be remaining in the UK that much longer, probably.

	Quote:	bigblue2
	I'd love to know what sweet deals the uk can possibly make on its own, any trade deals with the USA are going to be totally one sided, I'm sure shipping crops over from america is more eco friendly then getting them from france (for example) and the USA have already said meat restrictions would have to be removed, and NHS deals would need to be on the table, so just think, we get flooded with US beef, how would that effect any EU deal??

Well if the UK is flooded with US beef, the NHS won't need to fork out on antibiotics for a start.