The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[amogles]

	Quote:
	Please note the types of trade agreements I listed - free trade agreements and similar other deal types. The essence of these free trade agreements is that everything is covered bilaterally, tariff free.

In other words, according to you, if the EU strikes up a free trade deal with the US, all those chlorine washed chickens and antibiotic treated burgers are coming anyway?

[k_and_e]

Meanwhile, the European Parliament has to deal with its own issues
https://www.politico.eu/article/food...ament-canteen/

(I couldn't read the full article. too much whining)

	Quote:	amogles
	In other words, according to you, if the EU strikes up a free trade deal with the US, all those chlorine washed chickens and antibiotic treated burgers are coming anyway?

You are living in a fantasy world if you believe they could strike a free trade deal.

Also, just because there is a free trade deal, does not mean all is imports are valid. You won't be able to import an assault rifle from the states. Imports must still adhere to laws of the EU, so substandard meat wouldn't be permitted.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	Attractive terms for who? What highly attractive trade deals with third countries have the EU negotiators landed lately that specifically benefit the UK?

Such agreements benefit UK while still in the EU but will have the opposite effect after Brexit.

Probably the most important trade deal recently signed by the EU was with Japan; UK currently exports over euro 6Bn per year to Japan so there is a big opportunity to lock in existing business and to increase exports.

After Brexit, UK will have tariff barriers in exporting to Japan which EU competitors will not have. Even worse, Japan is able to export cars to the EU tariff free so after Brexit there is no reason for Japan to mass produce in the UK for export to the EU.

Well look at this from 2016.. What no special relationship? Mini deals?

UK is doomed.

Wilbur Ross President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for Commerce secretary, has urged other countries to exploit the “God-given opportunity” to steal business from the U.K., according to a report in The Times.

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/27/brex...lbur-ross.html

[amogles]

	Quote:
	You are living in a fantasy world if you believe they could strike a free trade deal.

Aha, so you admit the Eu is incapabale of striking a deal with the US.

But if we stay in the EU we benefit from that deal anyway.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Such agreements benefit UK while still in the EU but will have the opposite effect after Brexit. Probably the most important trade deal recently signed by the EU was with Japan; UK currently exports over euro 6Bn per year to Japan so there is a big opportunity to lock in existing business and to increase exports. After Brexit, UK will have tariff barriers in exporting to Japan which EU competitors will not have. Even worse, Japan is able to export cars to the EU tariff free so after Brexit there is no reason for Japan to mass produce in the UK for export to the EU.

So the Eu has struck a deal with Japan that makes it easy for the Japanese to stop making cars in Europe.

So basically Brussels has signed the death knell of a large portion of the UK's automobile industry.

How terrible that the Uk isn't showing more gratitude.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	So the Eu has struck a deal with Japan that makes it easy for the Japanese to stop making cars in Europe. So basically Brussels has signed the death knell of a large portion of the UK's automobile industry. How terrible that the Uk isn't showing more gratitude.

Not Brussels, you do not understand how the EU works do you?

	Quote:
	On 25 June 2018 the House of Commons voted in favour of the UK supporting EU signature of the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) .

It was not Brussels, it could not happen before each of the EU countries ratified the agreement

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	It was not Brussels, it could not happen before each of the EU countries ratified the agreement

I thought we were talking about Brussels' amazing ability to negotiate deals that are good for British industry. I don't think a deal that wipes out a large part of the British automobile industry qualifies there. It's definitely not putting the bar very high for when Britain needs to negotiate its own deals.

	Quote:	amogles
	I thought we were talking about Brussels' amazing ability to negotiate deals that are good for British industry. I don't think a deal that wipes out a large part of the British automobile industry qualifies there. It's definitely not putting the bar very high for when Britain needs to negotiate its own deals.

I don't see how a country that's happy to ratify "a deal that wipes out a large part of the British automobile industry" could negotiate a whole new, more favourable treaty all on their own.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	I thought we were talking about Brussels' amazing ability to negotiate deals that are good for British industry. I don't think a deal that wipes out a large part of the British automobile industry qualifies there. It's definitely not putting the bar very high for when Britain needs to negotiate its own deals.

No, not Brussels
It is pejorative to keep writing Brussels when you mean the EU.

We were talking about the ability of the EU to use its huge market to leverage free trade deals.

Incidentally, the Japan deal included dropping the Japanese 30% duty on Cheddar which might help British industry assuming Cheddar is still made in UK?

The US makes the most Cheddar cheese but would not benefit from this agreement.

	Quote:	amogles
	Aha, so you admit the Eu is incapabale of striking a deal with the US. But if we stay in the EU we benefit from that deal anyway.

Don't misrepresent me please. Re-read what I wrote, acknowledge your mistake, apologise if you like and engage with my actual statement.

Nuance; proving an issue since 2016.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	I thought we were talking about Brussels' amazing ability to negotiate deals that are good for British industry. I don't think a deal that wipes out a large part of the British automobile industry qualifies there. It's definitely not putting the bar very high for when Britain needs to negotiate its own deals.

First of all you are referring to the EU, not a city or should we start referring to the UK as Derry or if you’re of a unionist persuasion Londonderry to keep you happy. If you want to be taken seriously, start acting accordingly.

Next keep in mind that all trade agreements must be approved by the EU parliament and the 35+ regional and national parliaments before it comes into force. So there is able opportunity for the members to ensure their interests are protected. But Londonderry is a third country and will have no input to the deal, so the members could not care less what happens to its car industry.

And if you’d been paying attention you know that the EU’s ability to negotiate good deals is very strong. So much so that their agreements with both Canada and Japan to mention two of them requires the EU’s agreement before they can give as good a deal to Londonderry. With Boris continuing to play the clown I’d say there is every chance at least one of the 27 will veto such an approval.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	First of all you are referring to the EU, not a city or should we start referring to the UK as Derry or if you’re of a unionist persuasion Londonderry to keep you happy. If you want to be taken seriously, start acting accordingly. Next keep in mind that all trade agreements must be approved by the EU parliament and the 35+ regional and national parliaments before it comes into force. So there is able opportunity for the members to ensure their interests are protected. But Londonderry is a third country and will have no input to the deal, so the members could not care less what happens to its car industry. And if you’d been paying attention you know that the EU’s ability to negotiate good deals is very strong. So much so that their agreements with both Canada and Japan to mention two of them requires the EU’s agreement before they can give as good a deal to Londonderry. With Boris continuing to play the clown I’d say there is every chance at least one of the 27 will veto such an approval.

This is a really first class example of why being a smaller, more agile, independent trading nation has its advantages. As you say, if one of 27 countries isn't happy with any aspect of a trade negotiation, it gets vetoed.

As for the clause where, if I read that correctly, the EU has to give approval for a trade deal between Canada and the UK, im amazed. In any other line of business that would be way outside whats legally allowed.

	Quote:	Mikers
	As for the clause where, if I read that correctly, the EU has to give approval for a trade deal between Canada and the UK, im amazed. In any other line of business that would be way outside whats legally allowed.

I don't believe Exclusivity Agreements are illegal.

	Quote:	Mikers
	As for the clause where, if I read that correctly, the EU has to give approval for a trade deal between Canada and the UK, im amazed. In any other line of business that would be way outside whats legally allowed.

Let's be honest, if any aspect of this Brexit shitshow had been a business, it would have hit the buffers 3 years ago, and its executive management would be currently going through the courts and fighting off shareholders.

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	Let's be honest, if any aspect of this Brexit shitshow had been a business, it would have hit the buffers 3 years ago, and its executive management would be currently going through the courts and fighting off shareholders.

I think you could say the same for politics in general. Nowhere else on earth do you get people with absolutely no experience of a given field then being asked to run it. I mean, if I need a cleaner, then hire a cook to do the cleaning, i'd be marked as barking in any other world. In Politics, you can try your hand at anything.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	UK GDP for the three months ended June contracted 0.2% compared to the previous quarter, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. Experts had expected growth to be flat. UK economy shrinks for first time since 2012. A recession is when the GDP growth rate is negative for two consecutive quarters or more.

Germany also shrank by 0.1% in the 2nd quarter.

https://www.ft.com/content/994a9ec4-...d-8e884d3ea203

	Quote:	Mikers
	I think you could say the same for politics in general. Nowhere else on earth do you get people with absolutely no experience of a given field then being asked to run it. I mean, if I need a cleaner, then hire a cook to do the cleaning, i'd be marked as barking in any other world. In Politics, you can try your hand at anything.

That's always been a source of puzzlement to me: "Currently you are Minister for Education, and you should be knowledgeable, qualified and experienced enough to know what would be good for the nation's education, but now I'm going to have a cabinet reshuffle and you will be Minister for Health, so how's your knowledge of the entire NHS?"

[k_and_e]

	Quote:
	That's always been a source of puzzlement to me: "Currently you are Minister for Education, and you should be knowledgeable, qualified and experienced enough to know what would be good for the nation's education, but now I'm going to have a cabinet reshuffle and you will be Minister for Health, so how's your knowledge of the entire NHS?"

Same happens in companies all the time. Most important are leadership capabilities, for the rest a minister will have experts.