The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	baboon
	Going to happen in the next 20 years. Catholics are already almost the majority overall (expected by 2021), just not yet in those of voting age.

It has to be agreed on both sides of the border... don't expect that the desire for a united Ireland is the same on both sides of the border, it is not. Have a look at election campaigns in Ireland, a united Ireland is not even a discussion point for the parties, except for SF and then it usually a mumble so that only the die hards here it.

I would expect when such a debate gets going two factors will kick in very much in the south of Ireland: the idea of Irish solders coming home in body bags from NI and the cost.... remember the Irish government failed in it's attempt to introduce water rates....

[baboon]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	It has to be agreed on both sides of the border... don't expect that the desire for a united Ireland is the same on both sides of the border, it is not. Have a look at election campaigns in Ireland, a united Ireland is not even a discussion point for the parties, except for SF and then it usually a mumble so that only the die hards here it. I would expect when such a debate gets going two factors will kick in very much in the south of Ireland: the idea of Irish solders coming home in body bags from NI and the cost.... remember the Irish government failed in it's attempt to introduce water rates....

I know....however I would also put a hefty bet on a yes vote of at least 60% in the south. When it really comes down to it I'm pretty certain the emotions and sense of history will swing it. Had a good discussion on exactly this subject with an Irish friend just recently.

[Horatio Gonzales]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	the idea of Irish solders coming home in body bags from NI and the cost.... remember the Irish government failed in it's attempt to introduce water rates....

regarding cost I believe it currently runs the UK somewhere around GBP10BN/annum for the privilege of NI.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	baboon
	I know....however I would also put a hefty bet on a yes vote of at least 60% in the south. When it really comes down to it I'm pretty certain the emotions and sense of history will swing it. Had a good discussion on exactly this subject with an Irish friend just recently.

Well time will tell, but I suspect that that Ireland is gone. It’s a very different Ireland to the one I left over thirty years ago to the point that it is almost unrecognizable and that is no bad thing. Even that national language is no longer seen in the same light. It is ironic that at the very time that SF are demanding its official use in NI that Ireland is dropping the requirement for its use by Irish state bodies!

[amogles]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Well time will tell, but I suspect that that Ireland is gone. It’s a very different Ireland to the one I left over thirty years ago to the point that it is almost unrecognizable and that is no bad thing. Even that national language is no longer seen in the same light. It is ironic that at the very time that SF are demanding its official use in NI that Ireland is dropping the requirement for its use by Irish state bodies!

Pendulums always swing back at some point. Especially in politics.

[Urs Max]

In the event of a no-deal Brexit the Brits will be better off than before WRT immigration and
access to the local labor market. Until December 2020 that is.

The UK will not have the status of a 3rd-party country. Instead Brits will get even easier access to
the Swiss labor market than under FMOP as most requirements won't apply any longer.

See here for a little more detail.

Again, until December 2020. Nobody knows what applies after that.

[marton]

	Quote:	marton
	Presumably none of these solutions are acceptable to Boris because he has not offered them for negotiation? Probably Boris is playing the game that the EU is the first to offer solutions that he can then point to as the "domineering" and unacceptable EU?

Clever reply from the EU to Boris's letter
"Tusk wrote: “The backstop is an insurance to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland unless and until an alternative is found.
Those against the backstop and not proposing realistic alternatives in fact support re-establishing a border. Even if they do not admit it.”"

As I posted earlier, Boris is wasting everybody's time by demanding the backstop is dropped without offering any realistic alternatives.

[Clocker]

	Quote:	marton
	The backstop is an insurance to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland unless and until an alternative is found. Those against the backstop and not proposing realistic alternatives in fact support re-establishing a border.

I don't see there being a hard border on 1st November. Neither country is setting it up.
The UK can't be forced to. The EU expects Ireland to do so. But will Ireland do that?

[marton]

	Quote:	Clocker
	I don't see there being a hard border on 1st November. Neither country is setting it up. The UK can't be forced to. The EU expects Ireland to do so. But will Ireland do that?

Art. 4 of Regulation (EU) No 2016/1624 (European Border and Coast Guard Regulation) requires EU countries to establish effective, efficient and coordinated border management at the external EU borders.

[John William]

	Quote:	marton
	Art. 4 of Regulation (EU) No 2016/1624 (European Border and Coast Guard Regulation) requires EU countries to establish effective, efficient and coordinated border management at the external EU borders.

The UK could save a lot of time, money and angst by simply revoking their request to leave the EU through Article 50.

[3Wishes]

	Quote:	marton
	Art. 4 of Regulation (EU) No 2016/1624 (European Border and Coast Guard Regulation) requires EU countries to establish effective, efficient and coordinated border management at the external EU borders.

Okay, but what's the penalty if they don't do it? Some EU troops going to get in boats and go tell the Irish what's what?

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	Art. 4 of Regulation (EU) No 2016/1624 (European Border and Coast Guard Regulation) requires EU countries to establish effective, efficient and coordinated border management at the external EU borders.

So if the UK leaves in a Brexit, then Ireland is actually obliged to establish border management with NI?

[marton]

	Quote:	3Wishes
	Okay, but what's the penalty if they don't do it? Some EU troops going to get in boats and go tell the Irish what's what?

Worst case is the EU set up a hard border between Ireland and the rest of the EU?

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	Worst case is the EU set up a hard border between Ireland and the rest of the EU?

RIP Freedom of Movement

[krlock3]

So what is the current view of implications of Brexit for Swiss based UK expats? I can't believe this thread has 21k posts!

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	3Wishes
	Okay, but what's the penalty if they don't do it? Some EU troops going to get in boats and go tell the Irish what's what?

Well ultimately a states voting rights would be suspended... but you are talking about one of the most pro EU states... one where all the main political parties including SF support Taoiseach (PM)’s policy, he briefs them weekly on the situation and in three years they have all held the line.

The site survey was conducted months ago and provisional compulsory purchase orders issued where necessary. In accordance with WTO rules the army corp of engineers will have three months to put up the check points etc... before any complaints can be lodged at the WTO.

In Ireland this is seen as 100% the fault of the UK and Johnson will replace his hero Churchill as the most hated British politician in Ireland.

[marton]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	RIP Freedom of Movement

Ireland is not in Schengen so they already have border checks for people between Ireland and the rest of the EU.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	Worst case is the EU set up a hard border between Ireland and the rest of the EU?

Right because Ireland would not veto such a move.... you need to learn a lot more about how the EU works.

[Jim2007]

So if the UK decides to exit the EU in October without a deal and continue to keep the NI border open then the proposed deal with Switzerland is superfluous since under the WTO rules the BREXITEERS like so much we will already have zero tariff access....

In fact where is the motivation for any of the WTO members to both with trade deals if they all have a right to zero tariff access while continuing to charge tariffs on UK imports???

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	krlock3
	So what is the current view of implications of Brexit for Swiss based UK expats? I can't believe this thread has 21k posts!

How long have you got?

Much of what was in the deal signed between Switzerland and the UK will need to be reviewed in the event of a No Deal exit on 31 October, so pretty much everything will go up in the air again.

My thoughts:
Priti Patel is an evil cow at best, an opinion of her that I formed long before the EU Referendum. I would love to be proved wrong, but she's been a sneaky, weasely wretch for as long as she's been an MP.

The legalities of the process fascinate me far more than the sound bites and shenanigans, as it's they that have thwarted the process from day 1. Even as we speak, the Leave.EU, Vote Leave and BeLeave campaigns are all still under investigation. I find it utterly ridiculous that the UK is still proceeding before the result of these investigations have been concluded.

Personally, I still don't believe the UK will leave the EU in October. There are currently two legal challenges launched (that I know of) to decide if the PM can or cannot prorogue parliament, one in Scotland and one in Belfast...

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinio...tion-1-4985288

https://www.irishnews.com/news/north...lenge-1684972/

With the clock against the PM, parliamentary numbers against him, and the Commons and Lords having already voted down a No Deal scenario, I fail to see how the PM will proceed within the law. The only questions are, how soon will the next GE be and how long will the next extension be?