The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[bigblue2]

so there is one reason,

we can do our own trade deals

lets not go into the positives and negatives of that just now, anymore?

[amogles]

	Quote:
	The UK never really wanted to be in the EU, when they joined in 1973 they still had a little power and prestige left over from WWII and the days of the Empire and always thought they were a cut above the rest; you could argue this is still the case.

Agreed. Only the UK is not the only country that hasn't totally relinquished the spirit of its colonial past. Arguably, France is still more embroiled in its past glories than Britain is. The difference being that France sees the EU as a means to continue that tradition with other means whereas the UK sees the EU as a radical break from it.

	Quote:
	The UK always wanted special clauses and opt outs to almost all the treaties, they negotiated a special reduction on what they pay into the EU, they have never really been a team player and the EU is about team playing.

Everybody has always tried to spin the EU to their own advantage and material gain. Even Germany has, despite all the lost billions they pumped in.

The problem was that that worked as long as there was enough to go around. As long as everybody somehow believed they were taking more out of the pot than they were contributing, everybody was happy.

	Quote:
	The UK has some difficultly in accepting the major roles played by Germany and France in the EU who seem to make most of the important decisions, size and colour of banana's aside.

In the past Germany and France took a more backseat role or were more subtle about pulling the strings. Britain is not the only country that has a problem with France and Germany getting too loud and telling the others what to do. There are only so many bridges you can burn until people say FU. French and German blunders are directly reponsible for the rise of populism in southern and eastern Europe, and the more they shout it down, the more it grows. This is a very real threat to the long term future of the EU. At least in Germany some politicians are beginning to understand this, but change takes time.

	Quote:
	In my opinion, the UK will be initially worse off outside the EU but it will suit their unique personality much better and in the long run, it is probably the best thing to do.

[Blueangel]

For anyone who is interested, there are two courts in session today r.e. the proroguing of Parliament.


https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/st...17905860554752


https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/sta...12426602164225

[Massa]

I spoke to a British friend last night who voted to leave. His main reason was that he felt very strongly about the fact that the European Courts/ECJ continuously over ruled the British Home Office when they wanted to deport foreign terrorists/criminals from the UK saying they have a right to a family life et al - even when that person had committed serious offences like murder. So for him it’s about enabling the UK to regain control of its own laws again and to have no further legal interference from Brussels. To him that was more important than any of the benefits of staying in the EU. I also believe he knew someone who was killed in the tube bombings in London so it’s a very personal response.

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	Pure conjecture. There are already a lot of deals the EU have that will take an age to replicate and be on less favorable terms. So this still isn't a benefit.

you just dont get it. I cant make it any more simple, sorry.

	Quote:	Massa
	I spoke to a British friend last night who voted to leave. His main reason was that he felt very strongly about the fact that the European Courts/ECJ continuously over ruled the British Home Office when they wanted to deport foreign terrorists/criminals from the UK saying they have a right to a family life et al - even when that person had committed serious offences like murder. So for him it’s about enabling the UK to regain control of its own laws again and to have no further legal interference from Brussels. To him that was more important than any of the benefits of staying in the EU. I also believe he knew someone who was killed in the tube bombings in London so it’s a very personal response.

This is utter bollocks though.


We can deport criminals from the EU and have done so, in fact we deported over 5000 of them in 2017 alone. We can even decide for which offences people can be deported...


Here is the EU law on the topic (Citizens' Directive 2004):

There are only three situations in which deportation is allowed.
The first requires that alongside the public policy or public security reasons, deportation can only be allowed if adequate consideration of various factors are taken into account. These include how long the person has been living in the country, their age, health, family and financial situation, and how well they’ve integrated into society.


The second situation concerns permanent residents, those who have have lived in a member state for five years or more (you are not required to have documents proving this, though it is necessary for British citizenship applications).


For permanent residents, only serious grounds under public policy or public security will justify expulsion. What a “serious” ground is must be justified by the member states, but there is no guidance in the directive as to what constitutes “serious”. It must relate to a fundamental interest of society. These include preventing unlawful immigration, maintaining public order, preventing tax evasion, countering terrorism and preventing repeat criminal offences.


The third situation is for those who have been in a member state for the last ten years – or minors. In these cases, only imperative grounds of public policy or public security will be accepted. Again, “imperative” grounds are up to the member states to justify and the directive offers no definition. However, it is clear that they are stricter than “serious” grounds. Therefore, the longer you have been in a country, the more difficult it becomes to deport you. Case law has accepted being involved in a drug dealing organisation as an imperative ground of public security, but the general meaning of “imperative” remains unclear.

	Quote:	Mikers
	you just dont get it. I cant make it any more simple, sorry.

I absolutely do get it.

We can make our own trade deals when we leave. Hoorah.

We have FAR fewer bargaining chips with a population of ~65m as opposed to half a billion though.

Deals will NOT be quick, you are dreaming if you believe that people will be rolling out the red carpet - even to catch up with what the EU has will probably take decades (on worse terms).

Honest question for you: Do you believe in 1 year, 10 years or 25 years we will have trade deals as favorable to us as we have in the EU now? What leverage do you believe we have to negotiate them that is better than within the EU?

	Quote:	Massa
	I spoke to a British friend last night who voted to leave. His main reason was that he felt very strongly about the fact that the European Courts/ECJ continuously over ruled the British Home Office when they wanted to deport foreign terrorists/criminals from the UK saying they have a right to a family life et al - even when that person had committed serious offences like murder. So for him it’s about enabling the UK to regain control of its own laws again and to have no further legal interference from Brussels. To him that was more important than any of the benefits of staying in the EU. I also believe he knew someone who was killed in the tube bombings in London so it’s a very personal response.

Does the ECJ have any say on the UK deporting convicted criminals who are from outside of the EU, or were the convicted criminals from the EU?

It's just that you (or your friend) talk about terrorist attacks but most of them appear to be carried out by non-EU people.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Massa
	I spoke to a British friend last night who voted to leave. His main reason was that he felt very strongly about the fact that the European Courts/ECJ continuously over ruled the British Home Office when they wanted to deport foreign terrorists/criminals from the UK saying they have a right to a family life et al - even when that person had committed serious offences like murder. So for him it’s about enabling the UK to regain control of its own laws again and to have no further legal interference from Brussels. To him that was more important than any of the benefits of staying in the EU. I also believe he knew someone who was killed in the tube bombings in London so it’s a very personal response.

the uk courts make just as dumb rulings all by themselves

There are plenty of laws to make sure a murderer or terrorist stay in prison until they are dead or pose no threat at all, there are also plenty or laws in the uk and eu to make sure you can't deport someone somewhere they'll be tortured and / or murdered.

just like the uk have always had the power to deport illegal immigrants, you have to ask yourself why they choose not to use the laws they have and instead blame Brussels.

	Quote:
	Does the ECJ have any say on the UK deporting convicted criminals who are from outside of the EU, or were the convicted criminals from the EU? It's just that you (or your friend) talk about terrorist attacks but most of them appear to be carried out by non-EU people.

The UK will still be bound by the ECHR after Brexit, which determines exceptional criteria for when people can/can't be deported, so anyone who quotes this as a reason for Brexit is at best uninformed or at worst a cretin.

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	Honest question for you: Do you believe in 1 year, 10 years or 25 years we will have trade deals as favorable to us as we have in the EU now? What leverage do you believe we have to negotiate them that is better than within the EU?

no i dont expect we will, but then im a remainer in terms of wanting us to stay in the EU. but i am also a strong believer in democracy so we have to leave.

the leverage we have is that we will be able to make judgements independely and not have to involve 26 other countries.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Massa
	I spoke to a British friend last night who voted to leave. His main reason was that he felt very strongly about the fact that the European Courts/ECJ continuously over ruled the British Home Office when they wanted to deport foreign terrorists/criminals from the UK saying they have a right to a family life et al - even when that person had committed serious offences like murder. So for him it’s about enabling the UK to regain control of its own laws again and to have no further legal interference from Brussels. To him that was more important than any of the benefits of staying in the EU. I also believe he knew someone who was killed in the tube bombings in London so it’s a very personal response.

If you take one such case in isolation, the case against Abu Hamza, you will see that the bodies in question are the ECHR and ECtHR not the ECJ.

The ECJ is an EU body.

The ECHR and ECtHR are not EU bodies. They are both part of the Council of Europe which has 47 member states including Russia and the UK.

Sorry but your friend's decision was based on totally false information.

[Blueangel]

For reference: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/w...rt-of-justice/

	Quote:	Mikers
	the leverage we have is that we will be able to make judgements independely and not have to involve 26 other countries.

Is that really leverage?

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Mikers
	no i dont expect we will, but then im a remainer in terms of wanting us to stay in the EU. but i am also a strong believer in democracy so we have to leave. the leverage we have is that we will be able to make judgements independely and not have to involve 26 other countries.

democracy? we have a 2 party system, where the party who get the least votes overall can still be elected into power, once in power the prime minister can just shut down parliament to make sure his way wins, and unless you went to the right private school your chances of being selected to run as an mp are close to zero, I'm kinda struggling to see the democracy in all of this.

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	Is that really leverage?

Yes.

	Quote:	Massa
	I also believe he knew someone who was killed in the tube bombings in London so it’s a very personal response.

...an attack carried out by 4 British citizens, 3 of whom were born in the UK, the 4th moved from Jamaica at the age of 5. What even remotely has that to do with the EU apart from the fact that the UK is a member?

[3Wishes]

	Quote:	Mikers
	...An advantage of leaving the EU is we will be able to independently sign trade deals without needing the consensus of the other countries in the trading bloc, allowing us to negotiate on simpler, swifter terms.

That's not totally true, though is it? From what I understand, post-Brexit the UK can't simply negotiate one deal with Spain, another with France, etc. It still has to negotiate with the whole EU bloc on a number of things as opposed to the individual members.

The advantage comes when negotiating with non-EU countries, such as USA and China. For those negotiations the UK would no longer be bound by EU rules.

	Quote:
	The UK will still be bound by the ECHR after Brexit, which determines exceptional criteria for when people can/can't be deported, so anyone who quotes this as a reason for Brexit is at best uninformed or at worst a cretin.

Don't speak too soon. There are cretins in the UK (various conservatives / Farage-alikes) that want to leave the ECHR as well.

Which would be the day I stop even visiting the UK.

	Quote:	Mikers
	Yes.

I disagree...it might be a mechanism to argue that you could get a deal done quicker, but for me it certainly isn't something likely to win you better terms.