The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Today only
	Lobotomy maybe....

Pffff... That's long overdue.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Clocker
	Also, your posts are serious (well, most of them that I have read definitely are, naturally I haven't read them all), it's just I don't agree with most of them, on this thread. You clearly have a strong opinion and I have a different opinion.

Probably only Swisstree knows which ones are serious and which are not I'm reminded of the phrase "Opinions are like arseholes..."

What I have on this subject isn't just an opinion. It goes way back to being present at the debates my parents and grandparents had about voting to join the Common Market, through to witnessing the entirely positive impact that EU membership has had on myself and my family, both in our work and personal lives. From my (retired) barrister brother having a second framework that he could implement for a successful conclusion, to me learning and implementing the EU Working Time Directive in the workplace (of which I still have a print copy), it's been nothing but beneficial to us. FMOP has led to 3 marriages in my immediate family and to my own relationship, plus countless others amongst my friends.

This isn't just an opinion. It's my past, my present and my future. It's the present and the future for too many people I love and hold dear. I will fight for that.

[marton]

	Quote:	Clocker
	Careful. When you add the word 'seriously' to your post, to qualify it, it gives the impression that all your other posts are not serious. There are a couple of people on here who do just that regularly, most probably because they don't take others' posts seriously and respond with a lot of waffle, silly, snide or sometimes even vile or obscene remarks and generally derail that person's (often a newbie's, sometimes not a newbie's) thread. You're not one of them though. Also, your posts are serious (well, most of them that I have read definitely are, naturally I haven't read them all), it's just I don't agree with most of them, on this thread. You clearly have a strong opinion and I have a different opinion. I thought this post recent from 'Today only' summed things up well and I agree with what was said in it. https://www.englishforum.ch/3095858-post21736.html This was a good part of my argument for voting 'Leave'. Just as the EU is not right for Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein, at the moment and in its present form, I am of the opinion that the EU is also not right, at all, for the UK. There is also a bit more to it than that, but for now that's all I can say.

Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are so closely linked to the EU that it is difficult to identify what in practice is different for them day to day versus a full EU member; other than no voting rights.
So what do you see as "not right"?

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are so closely linked to the EU that it is difficult to identify what in practice is different for them day to day versus a full EU member; other than no voting rights. So what do you see as "not right"?

I don't know either but the 4 countries actually have in common that they are all pretty successful.

Not using the euro is probably a success factor but that is for the UK not exactly a reason to leave the EU.

[greenmount]

For a more relaxed atmosphere on this thread, something funny to read here

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b063c341fa39d1

I have to say the latest comments of our Hugh Grant have amused me greately and tried yesterday to share that with OH....he was not that amused and I have to agree with him on this one - where were all these good people before Brexit? Why none of those who comment today were heard back then, maybe not even barely interested? Anyways, Grant is still spot on about this Boris.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	Not using the euro is probably a success factor but that is for the UK not exactly a reason to leave the EU.

Please explain why not using the Euro is a success factor. Can you name any country that has been able to avoid a recession because of it’s ability to manage it’s currency, climbed out of a recession or managed to impact long term exporting because it was able to manage it currency.

In fact the last time the SBN tried to peg the Franc to the Euro it hosed up Euro bonds equal to the deficit of the 7 biggest Euro Group economies before it gave up. And even today it is forced from time to time to conduct market operations in defense of Euro bonds because it holds such a big block of them!

Look at Ireland back in 2006 - 2007, it did not have control over the Euro, but it had plenty of options to bring an over heating economy under control, there just was not the political will to do so. It could for instance have:
- doubled the stamp duty on new houses
- removed tax relief on mortgage interest
- required minimum mortgage deposits of 40% or more
- increased payroll taxes

The magic of managing a currency just does not stack with reality. Poor management of an economy cannot be fixed by manipulation of a currency.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Please explain why not using the Euro is a success factor. Can you name any country that has been able to avoid a recession because of it’s ability to manage it’s currency, climbed out of a recession or managed to impact long term exporting because it was able to manage it currency.

Iceland.

Good Euro trouble example is Greece that can't devaluate or go bankrupt. I wonder when that country will recover.

Edit: or what about Italy? I wonder which other EU country is looking forward to help them out.

[rainer_d]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	Iceland. Good Euro trouble example is Greece that can't devaluate or go bankrupt. I wonder when that country will recover. Edit: or what about Italy? I wonder which other EU country is looking forward to help them out.

Iceland is a very special case. It has only 390k inhabitants. That's less than the city of Zurich alone.

They also made some very interesting choices during the 2008 financial crisis, which lead to them being basically cut off from the influx of foreign capital.


That said, Greece is a good example of what you have to do if you can't devaluate: wage repression. Ireland had to do this, too, IIRC.

The problem with the Euro is not the Euro, but everything else.
No fiscal union, no military union, no social union and a specific no-bailout clause in the Maastricht treaty. So, if a country gets in trouble, the only way out is wage repression and austerity.

[marton]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	Iceland. Good Euro trouble example is Greece that can't devaluate or go bankrupt. I wonder when that country will recover. Edit: or what about Italy? I wonder which other EU country is looking forward to help them out.

According to the International Monetary fund

	Quote:
	The economic recovery in Greece is accelerating and broadening. Growth and job creation in Greece are expected to accelerate further in 2019. Public sector financing needs remain manageable under the baseline due to strong fiscal balances, low debt servicing costs, and a large cash buffer. Greece’s capacity to repay the Fund is assessed to be adequate.

Source

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	According to the International Monetary fund Source

I really hope they will be right and the country will recover.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	I really hope they will be right and the country will recover.

Greece is recovering! They did the hard stuff and now they're working their way back.

https://www.ft.com/content/b42ee1ac-...6-79eaea5acb64

Our niece in Athens, who is an Economics graduate, left her full-time job and went self employed last month, and she's the last person who would make that leap if she didn't see strong signs of recovery.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	Iceland. Good Euro trouble example is Greece that can't devaluate or go bankrupt. I wonder when that country will recover. Edit: or what about Italy? I wonder which other EU country is looking forward to help them out.

The question was to show how control over a currency has benefits, you have not actually explained anything whatsoever - Greece and Italy don't even met the criteria of having control over it currency.

So to Iceland, did it manage to a void any recession by currency management, did it come out of any recession by using currency management???

We are still waiting for actually examples of currency management and recessions.....

[Blueangel]

Stuff meeting the PM! There's only one celeb in Downing Street for these kids

https://news.sky.com/video/larry-the...visit-11798258

[greenmount]

	Quote:	rainer_d
	That said, Greece is a good example of what you have to do if you can't devaluate: wage repression. Ireland had to do this, too, IIRC. The problem with the Euro is not the Euro, but everything else. No fiscal union, no military union, no social union and a specific no-bailout clause in the Maastricht treaty. So, if a country gets in trouble, the only way out is wage repression and austerity.

That is a very technicist and binary solution, strictly from an accounting perspective. You cut off from here so your debts cannot go more than x amount.

My country adopted heavy salaries cuts in the public sector in 2010 and the result was that there was a doctors/professors/other professionals hemorrhage from the public sector and not only to other countries. How can you develop a country if there is a massive brain drain? I think Greece has experienced this kind of crisis too, albeit on a much smaller level, just ask a normal person how long does it take to get an appointment with a specialist or to get a proper treatment without paying the white envelope. Or if they are happy with the quality of the education system lately.
Anyways, Greece is strategically more important than my country so there are still a lot of investments in infrastructure there, things are still moving.
But no, I don't believe IMF has the right solutions. Austerity kills, literally kills. It's like instead of treating a bacterial infection with antibiotics, we decide to amputate body parts first. Easy to talk from a German's perspective.

[Clocker]

	Quote:	StirB
	Essentially, people who have met forrins voted remain, people who haven't voted leave.

Pathetic and couldn't be further from the truth. When still in the UK I had far more contact with foreigners than with British citizens and this out of choice.
I've spoken seven languages, lived in six different countries, four of which are in the EU, yet I still voted 'Leave'.

None of my relatives voted for the EC in 1973. None of them voted 'Remain' in 2016 and nobody they know, nor anybody I personally know voted 'Remain'. Most people in the UK (and the referendum result reflected this clearly), have had enough.

You can be against the EU without being xenophobic or anti-European. I've lived longer outside of the UK than in.

	Quote:	marton
	Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are so closely linked to the EU that it is difficult to identify what in practice is different for them day to day versus a full EU member; other than no voting rights.

Apart from this being a sweeping generalization, You conveniently left out the fact that none of these countries are in the EU customs union, none are in the Euro and they are also some of the richest, most prosperous and successful countries in the world with the highest quality of life. None of them need to be in the EU. What for when bilateral agreements work better?
If they can work for these four countries, there is no reason why they can't work for the UK.

	Quote:	k_and_e
	I don't know either but the 4 countries actually have in common that they are all pretty successful.

Exactly.

[bowlie]

And Austerity was a German requirement, not an EU one. Perhaps the situation would have been better had Germany had another strong EU member to stand up to them.

Germany is still the biggest problem for the Eau

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Clocker
	Apart from this being a sweeping generalization, You conveniently left out the fact that none of these countries are in the EU customs union, none are in the Euro and they are also some of the richest, most prosperous and successful countries in the world with the highest quality of life. None of them need to be in the EU. What for when bilateral agreements work better? If they can work for these four countries, there is no reason why they can't work for the UK. .

Not true, all of them are in the EU customs union, all of them adopted FMOP and according to you guys, they are still pretty successful...

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	The question was to show how control over a currency has benefits, you have not actually explained anything whatsoever - Greece and Italy don't even met the criteria of having control over it currency. So to Iceland, did it manage to a void any recession by currency management, did it come out of any recession by using currency management??? We are still waiting for actually examples of currency management and recessions.....

That's the wrong question to ask as the euro is a rather unique concept. The question to be answered is why the euro concept would work while every other currency doesn't.

[rainer_d]

	Quote:	greenmount
	That is a very technicist and binary solution, strictly from an accounting perspective. You cut off from here so your debts cannot go more than x amount. My country adopted heavy salaries cuts in the public sector in 2010 and the result was that there was a doctors/professors/other professionals hemorrhage from the public sector and not only to other countries. How can you develop a country if there is a massive brain drain? I think Greece has experienced this kind of crisis too, albeit on a much smaller level, just ask a normal person how long does it take to get an appointment with a specialist or to get a proper treatment without paying the white envelope. Or if they are happy with the quality of the education system lately. Anyways, Greece is strategically more important than my country so there are still a lot of investments in infrastructure there, things are still moving. But no, I don't believe IMF has the right solutions. Austerity kills, literally kills. It's like instead of treating a bacterial infection with antibiotics, we decide to amputate body parts first. Easy to talk from a German's perspective.

I didn't say austerity and wage repression were necessarily a good thing.
It's just the only thing you can realistically do in a monetary union if you can't devaluate.

Germany did exactly that. But there's a price for it, and Germany will find out soon enough.

[marton]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	That's the wrong question to ask as the euro is a rather unique concept. The question to be answered is why the euro concept would work while every other currency doesn't.

Why is it unique? In principle it is no different from the federated US States, US territories, Ecuador, El Salvador, Zimbabwe, Timor-Leste, Micronesia, Palau, and the Marshall Islands using the US$ or the federated Swiss Kantons and Liechtenstein using the Swiss Franc?
The franc was reintroduced as Switzerland’s currency on 7 May 1850 with the “Federal Coinage Act”. Before then the cantons, municipalities & abbeys all had their own currencies.