The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[baboon]

	Quote:
	Head's spinning a bit from it all but does this mean that they are no longer eligible to vote in Parliament, particularly in the upcoming motion to block a no-deal? Sorry, lost the plot a bit on it all. Or they can vote but just not as a Tory MP? Gosh, what crazy times!

The latter. They are still MPs. Just no longer official Tory MPs.

[Blueangel]

Again, timing is everything, and it looks like the Tory rebels' passes were withdrawn before the vote. That's pretty shocking behaviour. Cummings was also spotted at the back of the chamber because (allegedly) he "wants to see how these things work".

Video here...

	Quote:
	Tory rebel @SamGyimah says "coming in here this evening, it looks like they've also disabled our passes" since having the whip withdrawn for voting against the government.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1169015754160783362

[marton]

	Quote:
	BoJo has effectively made Farage redundant because of this, and has cut back the threat he might mount in a GE. That's the vulnerability you have when you are a one-trick party.

I am not sure the voters are so easily convinced that Boris will be the best solution for Brexit after watching the Tories muddling around for over 3 years.

If he gets his wish for a mid October election then it will be a challenge for the local Tories to find suitable candidates to replace deselected MPs in such a short timescale; followed by the challenge of getting flyers and posters printed and distributed in time with the new names to inform the electorate.

Probably the Tories will lose some seats in Scotland, the DUP are not looking so good in N. Ireland, LibDems will be fighting hard in Remain areas and Farage will remain a threat for the Tories; likely splitting the vote if not actually gaining seats.

Overall a big risk for Boris!

Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times"

An added extra, the DUP have lost their leverage.. they will need to forget about clinging to the coat tails of the tories and face the people of Northern Ireland.

Slap it up ya, Arlene.. your beloved bigot days are on the wane.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	I am not sure the voters are so easily convinced that Boris will be the best solution for Brexit after watching the Tories muddling around for over 3 years. If he gets his wish for a mid October election then it will be a challenge for the local Tories to find suitable candidates to replace deselected MPs in such a short timescale; followed by the challenge of getting flyers and posters printed and distributed in time with the new names to inform the electorate. Probably the Tories will lose some seats in Scotland, the DUP are not looking so good in N. Ireland, LibDems will be fighting hard in Remain areas and Farage will remain a threat for the Tories; likely splitting the vote if not actually gaining seats. Overall a big risk for Boris! Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times"

What options does the next government have?

A no-deal would be impossible by law.
Renegotiating the current deal is most likely impossible.

Does this mean that the UK has to remain because it's locking out all other options itself?

	Quote:	k_and_e
	What options does the next government have? A no-deal would be impossible by law. Renegotiating the current deal is most likely impossible. Does this mean that the UK has to remain because it's locking out all other options itself?

The third option is for the government to admit it can't find any common ground and therefore a majority so it could then go to the people to vote on a more nuanced option or set of options.

If the people then vote for a no deal as opposed to, say, the current deal or an amended one or even to remain (or whatever combo of options), parliament will then have a new structure to work to and a more precise mandate.

Contrary to whatever the Brexiters are bleating about, 2016 version of Leave didn't cover a No Deal, nor did they even have a sketch of a plan for a deal so was basically impotent and pointless.

[Clocker]

	Quote:
	Make sure to note all this down, there will be a test next period. Should be easy to remember if you aren't making it up though, right?

Not sure why you think it is made up.

On the contrary, I can't remember exact dates, but roughly the months, as back then it still corresponded to the academic year.

	Quote:	Clocker
	Not sure why you think it is made up.

Just because I've read some of your other posts.

[Clocker]

	Quote:
	Just because I've read some of your other posts.

What do the other posts have to do with it?

[marton]

For JRM lovers
Attachment 137605

Still astounded by the size of the Tory rebellion! If it takes no-deal off the table then worth it!

[Blueangel]

I'm just relieved that, apparently, I'm not the only person who woke up with Radiohead lyrics running through my head.

"We're not scaremongering
This is really happening"

"You do it to yourself you do
And that's what really hurts
Is you do it to yourself, just you
You and no-one else"

And I love seeing my beautiful, shy, genius boy Jonny Greenwood in the background of this gif. Those were the days...

https://twitter.com/McKelvie/status/1169019395982708737

[baboon]

Some of you might enjoy this article

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...rebel-alliance

[Blueangel]

Doing the rounds amongst my mates in the UK last night...

	Quote:	baboon
	The latter. They are still MPs. Just no longer official Tory MPs.

And they can stand as Independent candidates in future elections.

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	The third option is for the government to admit it can't find any common ground and therefore a majority so it could then go to the people to vote on a more nuanced option or set of options. If the people then vote for a no deal as opposed to, say, the current deal or an amended one or even to remain (or whatever combo of options), parliament will then have a new structure to work to and a more precise mandate. Contrary to whatever the Brexiters are bleating about, 2016 version of Leave didn't cover a No Deal, nor did they even have a sketch of a plan for a deal so was basically impotent and pointless.

I don't think it will even need to go that far. No-Deal is going to be ruled out by the end of the day, meaning realistically you can't go into a negotiation with the EU because they can't lose at that point - they could offer whatever they wanted knowing that we would have to agree because if we don't agree we are not legally allowed to not agree, if you see what I mean.

He'll get his election request denied then I think either he will fall (shortest PM ever) with someone like Ken Clarke being reinstated and taking over. Or he will go nuclear and try and ignore the result, in which case its tanks on the streets stuff.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Doing the rounds amongst my mates in the UK last night... Attachment 137606

Have you seen the one where someone has photoshopped suspender-and-stockings clad legs on his lower half? It shouldn't be that amusing, but it is...

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Mikers
	I don't think it will even need to go that far. No-Deal is going to be ruled out by the end of the day, meaning realistically you can't go into a negotiation with the EU because they can't lose at that point - they could offer whatever they wanted knowing that we would have to agree because if we don't agree we are not legally allowed to not agree, if you see what I mean.

There's been a hell of a lot written and in the media about no deal must be on the table. Whilst that is true in a new business negotiation such as buying property or a business a merger, it most definitely is not true when negotiating new terms in an established business relationship. That's one of the great misnomers that has infuriated the eff out of me throughout this entire process.

Back in the days when I was a union rep (for a long time) and on the national wage negotiation committee (for one cycle), if management offered 1% and we requested 2.75%, your aim is to find mutually acceptable common ground. Walking away with nothing or no deal is never an option. It's never even on the table. You push as far as you can then take it back to your membership for ballot. Rinse and repeat. In the absence of a new deal, you revert back to the last legally established or custom and practice position. It's a completely different process to mergers and acquisitions.

We were trained in negotiation process and strategy by the DTI's advisor to No.10 during the Blair administration in 2002, in a number of full-time week long courses over a 6mth period.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	There's been a hell of a lot written and in the media about no deal must be on the table. Whilst that is true in a new business negotiation such as buying property or a business a merger, it most definitely is not true when negotiating new terms in an established business relationship. That's one of the great misnomers that has infuriated the eff out of me throughout this entire process. Back in the days when I was a union rep (for a long time) and on the national wage negotiation committee (for one cycle), if management offered 1% and we requested 2.75%, your aim is to find mutually acceptable common ground. Walking away with nothing or no deal is never an option. It's never even on the table. You push as far as you can then take it back to your membership for ballot. Rinse and repeat. In the absence of a new deal, you revert back to the last legally established or custom and practice position. It's a completely different process to mergers and acquisitions. We were trained in negotiation process and strategy by the DTI's advisor to No.10 during the Blair administration in 2002, in a number of full-time week long courses over a 6mth period.

Yes I agree with the approach. To take another situation if you asked for 1% and management offered 0%, what approach did you follow next ?

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	There's been a hell of a lot written and in the media about no deal must be on the table. Whilst that is true in a new business negotiation such as buying property or a business a merger, it most definitely is not true when negotiating new terms in an established business relationship. That's one of the great misnomers that has infuriated the eff out of me throughout this entire process. Back in the days when I was a union rep (for a long time) and on the national wage negotiation committee (for one cycle), if management offered 1% and we requested 2.75%, your aim is to find mutually acceptable common ground. Walking away with nothing or no deal is never an option. It's never even on the table. You push as far as you can then take it back to your membership for ballot. Rinse and repeat. In the absence of a new deal, you revert back to the last legally established or custom and practice position. It's a completely different process to mergers and acquisitions. We were trained in negotiation process and strategy by the DTI's advisor to No.10 during the Blair administration in 2002, in a number of full-time week long courses over a 6mth period.

You can't compare this to Brexit negotiations. The difference here is that the EU doesn't have any incentive to make the deal less favorable for them.

[marton]

	Quote:
	And they can stand as Independent candidates in future elections.

So splitting the Tory vote if they stand as Independent in their old Constituency; which would be their final finger to Boris.