The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Clocker]

	Quote:
	Just because I've read some of your other posts.

What do the other posts have to do with it?

[marton]

For JRM lovers
Attachment 137605

Still astounded by the size of the Tory rebellion! If it takes no-deal off the table then worth it!

[Blueangel]

I'm just relieved that, apparently, I'm not the only person who woke up with Radiohead lyrics running through my head.

"We're not scaremongering
This is really happening"

"You do it to yourself you do
And that's what really hurts
Is you do it to yourself, just you
You and no-one else"

And I love seeing my beautiful, shy, genius boy Jonny Greenwood in the background of this gif. Those were the days...

https://twitter.com/McKelvie/status/1169019395982708737

Some of you might enjoy this article

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...rebel-alliance

[Blueangel]

Doing the rounds amongst my mates in the UK last night...

	Quote:
	The latter. They are still MPs. Just no longer official Tory MPs.

And they can stand as Independent candidates in future elections.

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	The third option is for the government to admit it can't find any common ground and therefore a majority so it could then go to the people to vote on a more nuanced option or set of options. If the people then vote for a no deal as opposed to, say, the current deal or an amended one or even to remain (or whatever combo of options), parliament will then have a new structure to work to and a more precise mandate. Contrary to whatever the Brexiters are bleating about, 2016 version of Leave didn't cover a No Deal, nor did they even have a sketch of a plan for a deal so was basically impotent and pointless.

I don't think it will even need to go that far. No-Deal is going to be ruled out by the end of the day, meaning realistically you can't go into a negotiation with the EU because they can't lose at that point - they could offer whatever they wanted knowing that we would have to agree because if we don't agree we are not legally allowed to not agree, if you see what I mean.

He'll get his election request denied then I think either he will fall (shortest PM ever) with someone like Ken Clarke being reinstated and taking over. Or he will go nuclear and try and ignore the result, in which case its tanks on the streets stuff.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Doing the rounds amongst my mates in the UK last night... Attachment 137606

Have you seen the one where someone has photoshopped suspender-and-stockings clad legs on his lower half? It shouldn't be that amusing, but it is...

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Mikers
	I don't think it will even need to go that far. No-Deal is going to be ruled out by the end of the day, meaning realistically you can't go into a negotiation with the EU because they can't lose at that point - they could offer whatever they wanted knowing that we would have to agree because if we don't agree we are not legally allowed to not agree, if you see what I mean.

There's been a hell of a lot written and in the media about no deal must be on the table. Whilst that is true in a new business negotiation such as buying property or a business a merger, it most definitely is not true when negotiating new terms in an established business relationship. That's one of the great misnomers that has infuriated the eff out of me throughout this entire process.

Back in the days when I was a union rep (for a long time) and on the national wage negotiation committee (for one cycle), if management offered 1% and we requested 2.75%, your aim is to find mutually acceptable common ground. Walking away with nothing or no deal is never an option. It's never even on the table. You push as far as you can then take it back to your membership for ballot. Rinse and repeat. In the absence of a new deal, you revert back to the last legally established or custom and practice position. It's a completely different process to mergers and acquisitions.

We were trained in negotiation process and strategy by the DTI's advisor to No.10 during the Blair administration in 2002, in a number of full-time week long courses over a 6mth period.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	There's been a hell of a lot written and in the media about no deal must be on the table. Whilst that is true in a new business negotiation such as buying property or a business a merger, it most definitely is not true when negotiating new terms in an established business relationship. That's one of the great misnomers that has infuriated the eff out of me throughout this entire process. Back in the days when I was a union rep (for a long time) and on the national wage negotiation committee (for one cycle), if management offered 1% and we requested 2.75%, your aim is to find mutually acceptable common ground. Walking away with nothing or no deal is never an option. It's never even on the table. You push as far as you can then take it back to your membership for ballot. Rinse and repeat. In the absence of a new deal, you revert back to the last legally established or custom and practice position. It's a completely different process to mergers and acquisitions. We were trained in negotiation process and strategy by the DTI's advisor to No.10 during the Blair administration in 2002, in a number of full-time week long courses over a 6mth period.

Yes I agree with the approach. To take another situation if you asked for 1% and management offered 0%, what approach did you follow next ?

	Quote:	Blueangel
	There's been a hell of a lot written and in the media about no deal must be on the table. Whilst that is true in a new business negotiation such as buying property or a business a merger, it most definitely is not true when negotiating new terms in an established business relationship. That's one of the great misnomers that has infuriated the eff out of me throughout this entire process. Back in the days when I was a union rep (for a long time) and on the national wage negotiation committee (for one cycle), if management offered 1% and we requested 2.75%, your aim is to find mutually acceptable common ground. Walking away with nothing or no deal is never an option. It's never even on the table. You push as far as you can then take it back to your membership for ballot. Rinse and repeat. In the absence of a new deal, you revert back to the last legally established or custom and practice position. It's a completely different process to mergers and acquisitions. We were trained in negotiation process and strategy by the DTI's advisor to No.10 during the Blair administration in 2002, in a number of full-time week long courses over a 6mth period.

You can't compare this to Brexit negotiations. The difference here is that the EU doesn't have any incentive to make the deal less favorable for them.

[marton]

	Quote:
	And they can stand as Independent candidates in future elections.

So splitting the Tory vote if they stand as Independent in their old Constituency; which would be their final finger to Boris.

[marton]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	You can't compare this to Brexit negotiations. The difference here is that the EU doesn't have any incentive to make the deal less favorable for them.

It is up to the UK negotiators to devise imaginative incentives; supposed to be one of Boris's strengths?

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Yes I agree with the approach. To take another situation if you asked for 1% and management offered 0%, what approach did you follow next ?

When the prevalent economic climate dictates a wage freeze, particularly when it's as opposed to redundancies, you look for other concessions and make a damned good case for them to both the mangement and the membership, which was 835 locally and 16k+ nationally.

Any business has to have the ability to effectively manage it's wages bill to account for prevalent forces, particularly in a recession. On that occasion we secured an extra 4 days paid annual leave, no redundancies and greater degree of flexitime for a fixed period of 12mths and the membership accepted that. We also got the ability to add 1 week unpaid leave to any 2 week period of annual leave subject to production staffing levels required. A lot of colleagues went to Australia that year.

[Blueangel]

"It came by text!" Rory Stewart being interviewed on how the Tory whip was withdrawn.

https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/statu...34941059330049

From last night's GQ Awards where Stewart was named 'Politician of the Year'

https://twitter.com/BritishGQ/status...86713887006725

	Quote:	marton
	It is up to the UK negotiators to devise imaginative incentives; supposed to be one of Boris's strengths?

But the UK threw its only poker card away yesterday: the no-deal option. Boris has nothing to negotiate anymore.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	I am not sure the voters are so easily convinced that Boris will be the best solution for Brexit after watching the Tories muddling around for over 3 years. If he gets his wish for a mid October election then it will be a challenge for the local Tories to find suitable candidates to replace deselected MPs in such a short timescale; followed by the challenge of getting flyers and posters printed and distributed in time with the new names to inform the electorate. Probably the Tories will lose some seats in Scotland, the DUP are not looking so good in N. Ireland, LibDems will be fighting hard in Remain areas and Farage will remain a threat for the Tories; likely splitting the vote if not actually gaining seats. Overall a big risk for Boris! Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times"

Boris plays for the long term. I wouldn't totally put it past him that it's a gamble he is willing to both win and lose. You know, even if the Tories go into opposition, no other party is likely to be within striking distance of a working majority so there will be division and strife. Just imagine Corbyn trying to form a coalition with the LibDems, maybe even the Greens and SNP. Just imagine all of them together trying to run a second referendum that they don't actually believe in or want to believe in. There would be a clash of not just cultures, but of entire worlds. Boris would relish being opposition leader in such a scenario. It would be time to buy shares in popcorn.

[amogles]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	But the UK threw its only poker card away yesterday: the no-deal option. Boris has nothing to negotiate anymore.

surely a piece of paper that says, we agree that we have no deal is also a deal of sorts ...

[Mikers]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	But the UK threw its only poker card away yesterday: the no-deal option. Boris has nothing to negotiate anymore.

thats the point. Honestly, they should just call it off and take the hit, I mean its not as if there political party could get any lower in reputation.

There's a clear majority who want to stay in the UK now, the main bargaining chip, i.e the only one that would hurt the other side, is gone so the UK can't in any real sense, negotiate. I'd just call it off, say things have changed and we'll look at it in 5 years time.

few weekends of unrest, back to normal after that.

[3Wishes]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	But the UK threw its only poker card away yesterday: the no-deal option. Boris has nothing to negotiate anymore.

Was it much of a joker though? The EU has stood firm. They've not offered any other options and even with Boris's threats of no deal there wasn't any flinching. They've repeatedly said that the UK has to make up its mind what it wants. Problem is, parliament is as divided as the people.

Boris claims he's negotiating a great deal, but hasn't released any details. If he's got a solution to the backstop and whatever else he doesn't like about May's agreement, why not release it to the public? He could go on a media blitz about his own great deal he will propose to the EU and how it's going to be the best for the UK. He could rally the EU around his amazing ideas, and then MPs would line up like happy little ducks. Oder?