The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	You can't compare this to Brexit negotiations. The difference here is that the EU doesn't have any incentive to make the deal less favorable for them.

It is up to the UK negotiators to devise imaginative incentives; supposed to be one of Boris's strengths?

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Yes I agree with the approach. To take another situation if you asked for 1% and management offered 0%, what approach did you follow next ?

When the prevalent economic climate dictates a wage freeze, particularly when it's as opposed to redundancies, you look for other concessions and make a damned good case for them to both the mangement and the membership, which was 835 locally and 16k+ nationally.

Any business has to have the ability to effectively manage it's wages bill to account for prevalent forces, particularly in a recession. On that occasion we secured an extra 4 days paid annual leave, no redundancies and greater degree of flexitime for a fixed period of 12mths and the membership accepted that. We also got the ability to add 1 week unpaid leave to any 2 week period of annual leave subject to production staffing levels required. A lot of colleagues went to Australia that year.

[Blueangel]

"It came by text!" Rory Stewart being interviewed on how the Tory whip was withdrawn.

https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/statu...34941059330049

From last night's GQ Awards where Stewart was named 'Politician of the Year'

https://twitter.com/BritishGQ/status...86713887006725

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	It is up to the UK negotiators to devise imaginative incentives; supposed to be one of Boris's strengths?

But the UK threw its only poker card away yesterday: the no-deal option. Boris has nothing to negotiate anymore.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	I am not sure the voters are so easily convinced that Boris will be the best solution for Brexit after watching the Tories muddling around for over 3 years. If he gets his wish for a mid October election then it will be a challenge for the local Tories to find suitable candidates to replace deselected MPs in such a short timescale; followed by the challenge of getting flyers and posters printed and distributed in time with the new names to inform the electorate. Probably the Tories will lose some seats in Scotland, the DUP are not looking so good in N. Ireland, LibDems will be fighting hard in Remain areas and Farage will remain a threat for the Tories; likely splitting the vote if not actually gaining seats. Overall a big risk for Boris! Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times"

Boris plays for the long term. I wouldn't totally put it past him that it's a gamble he is willing to both win and lose. You know, even if the Tories go into opposition, no other party is likely to be within striking distance of a working majority so there will be division and strife. Just imagine Corbyn trying to form a coalition with the LibDems, maybe even the Greens and SNP. Just imagine all of them together trying to run a second referendum that they don't actually believe in or want to believe in. There would be a clash of not just cultures, but of entire worlds. Boris would relish being opposition leader in such a scenario. It would be time to buy shares in popcorn.

[amogles]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	But the UK threw its only poker card away yesterday: the no-deal option. Boris has nothing to negotiate anymore.

surely a piece of paper that says, we agree that we have no deal is also a deal of sorts ...

[Mikers]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	But the UK threw its only poker card away yesterday: the no-deal option. Boris has nothing to negotiate anymore.

thats the point. Honestly, they should just call it off and take the hit, I mean its not as if there political party could get any lower in reputation.

There's a clear majority who want to stay in the UK now, the main bargaining chip, i.e the only one that would hurt the other side, is gone so the UK can't in any real sense, negotiate. I'd just call it off, say things have changed and we'll look at it in 5 years time.

few weekends of unrest, back to normal after that.

[3Wishes]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	But the UK threw its only poker card away yesterday: the no-deal option. Boris has nothing to negotiate anymore.

Was it much of a joker though? The EU has stood firm. They've not offered any other options and even with Boris's threats of no deal there wasn't any flinching. They've repeatedly said that the UK has to make up its mind what it wants. Problem is, parliament is as divided as the people.

Boris claims he's negotiating a great deal, but hasn't released any details. If he's got a solution to the backstop and whatever else he doesn't like about May's agreement, why not release it to the public? He could go on a media blitz about his own great deal he will propose to the EU and how it's going to be the best for the UK. He could rally the EU around his amazing ideas, and then MPs would line up like happy little ducks. Oder?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	But the UK threw its only poker card away yesterday: the no-deal option. Boris has nothing to negotiate anymore.

They NEVER had a poker card! No Deal was never a valid opinion:
- You give up trade deals covering 92% of your exports
- You loose preferential access to one of the richest trading blocks in the world that accounts for 48% of your exports
- No trade deals with Canada, Japan and the Mercosur (South America) because their trade deals require EU agreement to give any other country as good a deal
- No US trade deal due to Congress opposition
- 47+ objects at the WTO to the UK trade schedules
- Loss of passorting of financial services
- Tariffs on all imports and exports.

How exactly is putting the country at the mercy of the worlds trade blocks a smart move?

Meanwhile the EU’s new budget is bigger that none to which the UK contributed, is financed by the 27 and best of all approved without the usual UK whining and demands for special treatment.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	They NEVER had a poker card! No Deal was never a valid opinion: - You give up trade deals covering 92% of your exports - You loose preferential access to one of the richest trading blocks in the world that accounts for 48% of your exports - No trade deals with Canada, Japan and the Mercosur (South America) because their trade deals require EU agreement to give any other country as good a deal - No US trade deal due to Congress opposition - 47+ objects at the WTO to the UK trade schedules - Loss of passorting of financial services - Tariffs on all imports and exports. How exactly is putting the country at the mercy of the worlds trade blocks a smart move? Meanwhile the EU’s new budget is bigger that none to which the UK contributed, is financed by the 27 and best of all approved without the usual UK whining and demands for special treatment.

I think you miss the point of a no-deal Brexit a bit.

Compare it to a country having a nuclear bomb: you don't need to use it and don't plan to use it, but your opponents need to understand that you have one and can use it.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	I think you miss the point of a no-deal Brexit a bit. Compare it to a country having a nuclear bomb: you don't need to use it and don't plan to use it, but your opponents need to understand that you have one and can use it.

except in this case the uk is threatening to use its nukes on itself

	Quote:	k_and_e
	I think you miss the point of a no-deal Brexit a bit. Compare it to a country having a nuclear bomb: you don't need to use it and don't plan to use it, but your opponents need to understand that you have one and can use it.

Basically this is what you are saying but using a nuke instead...

https://brexitbannershome.files.word...8/12/Brex7.jpg

[k_and_e]

	Quote:
	Basically this is what you are saying but using a nuke instead... https://brexitbannershome.files.word...8/12/Brex7.jpg

No. This is what happened yesterday evening.


Actually, it happened every day during the last 3 years but yesterday in both feet.

[Castro]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	:d

I guess lying comes naturally to him.

falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus

[Castro]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	"It came by text!" Rory Stewart being interviewed on how the Tory whip was withdrawn. https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/statu...34941059330049 From last night's GQ Awards where Stewart was named 'Politician of the Year' https://twitter.com/BritishGQ/status...86713887006725

I salute all 21 of them!!! watching interviews with some of the rebels this morning, they all look 10 years younger. It must be exhilirating to finally break out of the cult.

To think a pair of charlatans like Johnson and Cummings could turf out the Father of the House and Nicholas Soames.. Jesus

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	I think you miss the point of a no-deal Brexit a bit. Compare it to a country having a nuclear bomb: you don't need to use it and don't plan to use it, but your opponents need to understand that you have one and can use it.

Except it is only a credible threat if you actually have one and everyone knows it. In this case all you got is empty launch pad and everyone can see this but you, which just makes you look very silly.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Castro
	I salute all 21 of them!!! watching interviews with some of the rebels this morning, they all look 10 years younger. It must be exhilirating to finally break out of the cult. To think a pair of charlatans like Johnson and Cummings could turf out the Father of the House and Nicholas Soames.. Jesus

I think they've gone too far. Kicking out Ken Clarke, I mean its beyond belief. I think Cummings won't make it, he'll go eventually like Theresa May's two advisors who were the downfall of her election campaign with the unlimited social care cost policy which ultimately ended her premiership.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Except it is only a credible threat if you actually have one and everyone knows it. In this case all you got is empty launch pad and everyone can see this but you, which just makes you look very silly.

It's not. For example, why are there plans in the EU to use the money of the natural disaster fund for Brexit support. That's a desperate measure.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Mikers
	I think they've gone too far. Kicking out Ken Clarke, I mean its beyond belief. I think Cummings won't make it, he'll go eventually like Theresa May's two advisors who were the downfall of her election campaign with the unlimited social care cost policy which ultimately ended her premiership.

The problem with kicking people out is that it just means you now have a block of PMs in the House under no obligation to the party. It also probably means the party won’t have a credible party structure in the constitution for the next GE which makes it very difficult for their new candidate to retain the seat.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	It's not. For example, why are there plans in the EU to use the money of the natural disaster fund for Brexit support. That's a desperate measure.

Address the long list of issues faced by the No Deal strategy and explain how it is not a dumb idea. And for a change actually defend your statement with a factual response rather than deflect.

Every time you are called out on one of your assertions it always ends that same long on opinion, short on facts.