The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[bigblue2]

Boris really isn't stupid, he knew this would happen, and all the while the clock is still counting down, he's managed to waste a couple of weeks, I'm sure he has more slimy schemes in his bag of tricks to waste a few more, Calling a GE for instance

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	Oh what a tangled web we weave When first we practice to deceive

And on that note, from the FT...


https://twitter.com/Laura_K_Hughes/s...07177957298177

[dandi]

	Quote:
	Someone call an ambulance for Boris.

I'd hold my bets for now. He clearly doesn't have any intention to resign (which would be the decent thing to do) and the honourable conservatives don't seem to care about today's judgement either to give him the boot.

The lack of leadership on both conv and labour is astonishing. This is particularly the time where strong separation of powers as demonstrated by the court today is absolutely necessary

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	dandi
	I'd hold my bets for now. He clearly doesn't have any intention to resign (which would be the decent thing to do) and the honourable conservatives don't seem to care about today's judgement either to give him the boot. The lack of leadership on both conv and labour is astonishing. This is particularly the time where strong separation of powers as demonstrated by the court today is absolutely necessary

its very sad and odd that labour won't stop being neutral on brexit, boris called JC's bluff and he folded, JC is done, he had a slight window to maybe win a GE and totally blew it

[Urs Max]

Isn't it the case that as of now, Brexit will happen on October 31 unless an extension is agreed upon, and that the PM must by law apply for one unless an agreement has been signed before October 19 (perhaps give or take a couple days)?

So, what happens if BoJo sabotages the extension so that none is effective by October 31?
You know, not apply, or apply late and further play for time, or not sign, or not present it to HRM to make the agreement effective (certainly that's necessary). There must be a ton of steps that need to be taken, each presenting an opportunity to break the process.

According to Article 50 the notice that was submitted 3 years ago must conform with the constitution, obviously that condition's met. But there's no mention of what's to come now, so the EU probably can't refuse Brexit as being unlawful if BoJo were to not act or otherwise thwart the process.

Opinions?



(outside of the military system you can't force someone to do something. Yes you can fine them, imprison them, but you can't make them write and send that letter or sign that paper. That's the main weakness behind that law that orders BoJo to get an extension)

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Isn't it the case that as of now, Brexit will happen on October 31 unless an extension is agreed upon, and that the PM must by law apply for one unless an agreement has been signed before October 19 (perhaps give or take a couple days)? So, what happens if BoJo sabotages the extension so that none is effective by October 31? You know, not apply, or apply late and further play for time, or not sign, or not present it to HRM to make the agreement effective (certainly that's necessary). There must be a ton of steps that need to be taken, each presenting an opportunity to break the process. According to Article 50 the notice that was submitted 3 years ago must conform with the constitution, obviously that condition's met. But there's no mention of what's to come now, so the EU probably can't refuse Brexit as being unlawful if BoJo were to not act or otherwise thwart the process. Opinions?

Another problem is even if Boris would go to the EU for an extension, what reasons others than "yeah, we've been acting like a bunch of drunk toddlers all together which is why nothing really changed lately" can he offer?

The population of England might be fed up with the whole political disaster, the EU also is. And simply asking for even more time so perhaps they can reach an agreement on how to negotiate any further with the EU will not be enough. I personally think that unless a whole bunch of politicians suddenly grow up and act according to such. Or even better GE have been agreed upon the EU will simply not give an extension. We should take in mind that the EU is pretty hungry for power and extension and it is in their best interest to see England fail as hard as can be, this to discourage other countries to call upon article 50.

As for him not wanting to go to the EU. If the majority wants it, another leader can be put in place in short time (tho nobody has any clue who that could be). However at this moment I agree with him not wanting to go, his hands are empty so it won't be asking, it has to be begging and nobody likes that.

Boris promised Brexit, and nobody knows what all will happen the next days, but unto now he is still on course of keeping up to his promise.

[3Wishes]

Random questions that I haven't yet found answers to, at least not in nice flow charts:

• If Johnson resigns, then what? The law about extension applies to this government, not to a subsequent one, right?
• Why would he bother to resign at this stage?
• If there's a vote of no confidence, which we presume he'd lose, who forms a new government and when?
• If there's a GE, when? Conservatives could still win a majority and put Johnson back where he was.
• Can the EU vote to extend even if the UK doesn't ask for it (i.e. the EU leaders see the leadership crisis in the UK and decide it's best for all to delay again)?

[justpassingby]

Random questions that I haven't yet found answers to, at least not in nice flow charts:

• If Johnson resigns, then what? The law about extension applies to this government, not to a subsequent one, right?
  
  Johnson is leader of the Conservative party who would choose a new leader
  
• Why would he bother to resign at this stage?
  
  He won‘t
  
• If there's a vote of no confidence, which we presume he'd lose, who forms a new government and when?
  
  Leader of opposition calls no confidence vote and if wins has opportunity to take over if in majority
  
• If there's a GE, when? Conservatives could still win a majority and put Johnson back where he was.
  
  Johnson chooses and yes
  
• Can the EU vote to extend even if the UK doesn't ask for it (i.e. the EU leaders see the leadership crisis in the UK and decide it's best for all to delay again)?
  
  No has to come from UK

[/QUOTE]

[Blueangel]

Dunno what's going to happen. I think anyone who says they know what will happen in the next 14 days is just guessing. What happened today, particularly in the way it was delivered, was unthinkable a month ago.

What I do know is that a considerable number of prominent, respected legal professionals have called for the PM to resign, and that call has been echoed by the Financial Times within the last couple of hours. Let's be reminded that the FT is not a political newspaper.

"Faced with such a damning judgment, any premier with a shred of respect for British democracy and the responsibilities of his office would resign."
https://www.ft.com/content/2b217664-...2-9624ec9edc59

Ironically, this news has broken with the past hour...
"House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is preparing to announce formal impeachment inquiry today"
https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1176568142992203783

After watching that pair of simpering fools sat together on the evening news, to reading these pieces in the last 5mins, all bets are off. Anything can always happen, granted, but there are still 3hrs GMT left

[marton]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	Boris really isn't stupid, he knew this would happen, and all the while the clock is still counting down, he's managed to waste a couple of weeks, I'm sure he has more slimy schemes in his bag of tricks to waste a few more, Calling a GE for instance

Boris cannot call a GE, Parliament has to approve it

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	marton
	Boris cannot call a GE, Parliament has to approve it

'I'm a Celebrity...Get Me Out of Here!!!!' begins in November. Wonder if they're keeping a spot free for him.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	marton
	Boris cannot call a GE, Parliament has to approve it

And they won’t, trying to force the exclude no deal piece. Hilariously, once this is done and we get the extension (which the EU will agree to) labour will be begging for a GE and Johnson won’t give them one.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Hilariously, once this is done and we get the extension (which the EU will agree to) labour will be begging for a GE and Johnson won’t give them one.

If...and it's a big 'if' at this point...Johnson is still the PM, he won't have any say in the matter. Vote of no confidence and GE. Easy as.

What part of "unlawful" do people not understand?

Let's just rewind to 25 July...

"Never mind the backstop, the buck stops here" - Boris Johnson
https://news.sky.com/story/never-min...peech-11769701

He's lied to the country. He's lied to Parliament. He's lied to the Queen.

Boris on his way home from NY tonight.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Mikers
	And they won’t, trying to force the exclude no deal piece. Hilariously, once this is done and we get the extension (which the EU will agree to) labour will be begging for a GE and Johnson won’t give them one.

I would not be at all sure of the extension or if it will be acceptable.. the usual unnamed sources suggest it could be for a budgetary period - 5 years and there will be no rebates as already agreed during the approval of the new budget.

[Castro]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	its very sad and odd that labour won't stop being neutral on brexit, boris called JC's bluff and he folded, JC is done, he had a slight window to maybe win a GE and totally blew it

I don't really understand this point, how can he ignore the 52% who voted leave? Currently we have the Libdems who will revoke Art 50 and the Tories who will leave deal or no deal so there has to be a credible middle ground, and I believe its Labour.

JC wants to take it back to the people and at that point make a decision whether to back 'Remain' or 'Brexit' with a newly negotiated deal. However since nobody knows what a Labour negotiated deal will look like (e.g. Norway Plus) its nothing but conjecture.

I listen to LBC alot and the anger and frustration of Northern Labour voters is palpable, JC cannot ignore them or Labour will face annihilation in their traditional heartlands. And I say all this as an ardent remainer, but I want it to be done properly and in a way that allows the country to come back together. We've had 3 years of victor's justice and gloating from the Brexiteers, we should be better than that and recognise that many voted Brexit for entirely honourable and understandable reasons.

[greenmount]

	Quote:
	Yes, I believe he left to set up his own right wing forum with a few of the regs here.

See, that's the thing with guys like this....right there.


Anyways, he had a very decent amount of opposition on this forum, nothing to be worried about. There were situations when I was disappointed at the lack of response from our decent regulars, but since the referendum everyone is awoke, so to speak. And frankly he's not thinking that differently than your average brexiteer.

Good riddance, whatever. It was his decision anyway..

	Quote:	Castro
	I don't really understand this point, how can he ignore the 52% who voted leave? Currently we have the Libdems who will revoke Art 50 and the Tories who will leave deal or no deal so there has to be a credible middle ground, and I believe its Labour. JC wants to take it back to the people and at that point make a decision whether to back 'Remain' or 'Brexit' with a newly negotiated deal. However since nobody knows what a Labour negotiated deal will look like (e.g. Norway Plus) its nothing but conjecture. I listen to LBC alot and the anger and frustration of Northern Labour voters is palpable, JC cannot ignore them or Labour will face annihilation in their traditional heartlands. And I say all this as an ardent remainer, but I want it to be done properly and in a way that allows the country to come back together. We've had 3 years of victor's justice and gloating from the Brexiteers, we should be better than that and recognise that many voted Brexit for entirely honourable and understandable reasons.

I think because it's very unlikely there is 52% today. A vote with a narrow majority three years ago can't be held to be valid today, that's almost as long as the gap between general elections which is an implicit recognition that opinions change.

Had the referendum required a super majority and achieved it then a case could be made for it's continued validity. I felt when it was announced that such an important issue needed a super majority, you have to be sure you are taking the pulse of the people for a significant period of time, not the will of the people on this particular Thursday. YouGov made a credible case that as demographics change through natural attrition the leave majority has been shrinking by 1300 voters a day.

Way more concerning to me even than Brexit is the reaction to the judges (unanimous) ruling, whether the UK is in or out, I want it to be a country of laws. Bojo was more restrained than I expected but the rightwing tabloids are frothing about unelected judges which is a dangerous path.

A lot of nonsense and hot air this morning from brexiteers who are calling the supreme court judges undemocratic and unlawful, working against brexit and the will of the people. Yet, prior to yesterday, the repeat story from brexiteers was that the 5 weeks prorogation had nothing whatsoever to do with brexit and is independent, therefore completely justified.

Farcical nonsense.

[marton]

	Quote:	Swisstree
	Boris on his way home from NY tonight.

Somebody should get a bunch of actors together, dress them as Beefeaters, take them to Heathrow and take a photo, then caption the photo "waiting to take Boris to be incarcerated in the Tower of London for lying to the Queen".

Historical Note; last time someone was executed in the Tower of London was ‎15 August 1941. Josef Jakobs was a German spy and the last person to be executed at the Tower of London.
The Kray twins were the last people to be held in the Tower. They were imprisoned for a few days in 1952.