Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Off-Topic > Off-Topic > International affairs/politics  
View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #22761  
Old 27.09.2019, 10:58
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
View Post
Anyone shorting the £ would likely have lost a huge amount of money unless they got timing absolutely right & nobody does.
Rather like buying bitcoin in the last 4 months, you would have lost money buying on almost every day if you cashed out today.
Maybe that's true if you are talking about two-bit hobby investors but the big boys in the real world have got it all sewn up...


Quote:
From the financial data publicly available, Byline Times can reveal that currently £4,563,350,000 (£4.6 billion) of aggregate short positions on a ‘no deal’ Brexit have been taken out by hedge funds that directly or indirectly bankrolled Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign.

Most of these firms also donated to Vote Leave and took out short positions on the EU Referendum result. The ones which didn’t typically didn’t exist at that time but are invariably connected via directorships to companies that did.

Another £3,711,000,000 (£3.7 billion) of these short positions have been taken out by firms that donated to the Vote Leave campaign, but did not donate directly to the Johnson leadership campaign.

Currently, £8,274,350,000 (£8.3 billion) of aggregate short positions has been taken out by hedge funds connected to the Prime Minister and his Vote Leave campaign, run by his advisor Dominic Cummings, on a ‘no deal’ Brexit.
To paraphrase further down the article - no wonder Boris would prefer to be "dead in a ditch" than not deliver a no-deal. There are probably plenty of people willing to help him achieve that boggy goal if he fails.
Reply With Quote
  #22762  
Old 27.09.2019, 11:02
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 17,358
Groaned at 296 Times in 244 Posts
Thanked 16,283 Times in 9,040 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
Maybe that's true if you are talking about two-bit hobby investors but the big boys in the real world have got it all sewn up...
It's not clear if they have profited or not, often trades are hedges & not naked bets. Swiss pension funds tend to do this as they are risk averse.
Warren Buffet took on a bet that nobody could pick a hedge fund that would outperform the S&P500 over 10 years, only 1 person accepted the bet & lost. Hedge funds perform badly & make many poor bets.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank fatmanfilms for this useful post:
  #22763  
Old 27.09.2019, 11:13
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Vaud
Posts: 2,277
Groaned at 152 Times in 105 Posts
Thanked 4,525 Times in 1,734 Posts
Mikers has a reputation beyond reputeMikers has a reputation beyond reputeMikers has a reputation beyond reputeMikers has a reputation beyond reputeMikers has a reputation beyond reputeMikers has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
Lol, I lived there about 15 years and saw zero police patrols, maybe 2 police cars total when responding to a burglary.

No roads were ever repaired / upgraded. No firemen were ever called out.

As I said, no doubt an exception, but that village was certainly a net contributor.
But they were still paid for, the firemen, the police, the schools, the hospital. Every year. So I wouldn't be so certain unless you have the accounts to hand, the likelihood is the proportional income of tax from the residents did not cover all council expenditure.

The rioting post was a humorous comment around people from towns and villages always choosing to protest in cities, not a scientific deconstruction of cost vs expenditure of different demographics across the UK. Maybe lighten up a bit.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank Mikers for this useful post:
  #22764  
Old 27.09.2019, 11:17
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
View Post
It's not clear if they have profited or not, often trades are hedges & not naked bets. Swiss pension funds tend to do this as they are risk averse.
Warren Buffet took on a bet that nobody could pick a hedge fund that would outperform the S&P500 over 10 years, only 1 person accepted the bet & lost. Hedge funds perform badly & make many poor bets.
So in your opinion you don't think anyone is planning to make any money at all on a no-deal Brexit, then?

Nobody made any money in the aftermath of the EU referendum, either, right?
Reply With Quote
  #22765  
Old 27.09.2019, 11:19
amogles's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Zurich
Posts: 10,412
Groaned at 218 Times in 185 Posts
Thanked 21,442 Times in 9,129 Posts
amogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
View Post
This might not be far from reality, at least for NI. The Irish grid is in the process of being hooked up directly to France to maintain the internal electricity market. In the event of a no deal the surplus that used to go north will start heading south.
you don't seem to understand how grids work.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank amogles for this useful post:
  #22766  
Old 27.09.2019, 11:21
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Ostschweiz
Posts: 7,198
Groaned at 265 Times in 227 Posts
Thanked 9,314 Times in 4,908 Posts
Urs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
The best you can get is what happened / is happening now, where the incumbent government has said it will follow the referendum results. In the extremely unlikely event of a Lib Dem election win though, they would tear it up and revoke article 50, and would be entitled to do so, legally.
Cameron wasn't in a position to make that promise, that's the parliament's decision. Without the Article 50 bill he/May couldn't have legally invoked it.
Reply With Quote
  #22767  
Old 27.09.2019, 11:23
amogles's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Zurich
Posts: 10,412
Groaned at 218 Times in 185 Posts
Thanked 21,442 Times in 9,129 Posts
amogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond reputeamogles has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
View Post
I'm pretty sure there would be riots if a 2nd Referendum overturned the result of the 1st. The difference is, nearly every major city in the UK voted remain the first time, so protesters/rioters would be coming in from outside the cities.
In other words, you believe that only majorities riot?
Reply With Quote
  #22768  
Old 27.09.2019, 11:26
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 17,358
Groaned at 296 Times in 244 Posts
Thanked 16,283 Times in 9,040 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
So in your opinion you don't think anyone is planning to make any money at all on a no-deal Brexit, then?

Nobody made any money in the aftermath of the EU referendum, either, right?
For every winner there is someone on the other side of the bet who lost. People plan to make money currency trading, very few do will have made money over the last 3 years as not all bets will be won. If it was easy Banks would never need to have rights issues or be refinanced.

Last year only 4% of UK fund managers made any money for their clients, 96% lost money although it was not their intention.
Reply With Quote
  #22769  
Old 27.09.2019, 11:27
TonyClifton's Avatar
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Zurich
Posts: 78
Groaned at 85 Times in 53 Posts
Thanked 395 Times in 227 Posts
TonyClifton is considered unworthyTonyClifton is considered unworthyTonyClifton is considered unworthy
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Why does Boris Johnson have to go Dinivan? The mechanisms are in place to remove him but none of the opposition parties dare do it. Would you believe he still has to go we’re he to win a majority in an election?
Reply With Quote
  #22770  
Old 27.09.2019, 11:33
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
View Post
For every winner there is someone on the other side of the bet who lost. People plan to make money currency trading, very few do will have made money over the last 3 years as not all bets will be won. If it was easy Banks would never need to have rights issues or be refinanced.
My question was not "Is everyone planning to make any money at all on a no-deal Brexit, then?

I asked if anyone would make money.

That's the point.

Maybe the same set of people that made billions immediately after, and directly because of the result of the referendum back in 2016 have got themselves positioned to hit the jackpot once again if BoJo pulls a no deal off.

Either you are very naive or perhaps unwilling to admit that, yes, a certain set of people close to Westminster and the PM himself have indeed made significant profits on these particular events.
Reply With Quote
  #22771  
Old 27.09.2019, 11:38
bigblue2's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Glarus
Posts: 8,017
Groaned at 484 Times in 403 Posts
Thanked 14,508 Times in 5,716 Posts
bigblue2 has a reputation beyond reputebigblue2 has a reputation beyond reputebigblue2 has a reputation beyond reputebigblue2 has a reputation beyond reputebigblue2 has a reputation beyond reputebigblue2 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
My question was not "Is everyone planning to make any money at all on a no-deal Brexit, then?

I asked if anyone would make money.

That's the point.

Maybe the same set of people that made billions immediately after, and directly because of the result of the referendum back in 2016 have got themselves positioned to hit the jackpot once again if BoJo pulls a no deal off.

Either you are very naive or perhaps unwilling to admit that, yes, a certain set of people close to Westminster and the PM himself have indeed made significant profits on these particular events.
well I heard a figure of 8 billion so far spent preparing for brexit, so someone somewhere is raking it in
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank bigblue2 for this useful post:
  #22772  
Old 27.09.2019, 11:46
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Zurich
Posts: 7,244
Groaned at 261 Times in 197 Posts
Thanked 15,906 Times in 5,604 Posts
k_and_e has a reputation beyond reputek_and_e has a reputation beyond reputek_and_e has a reputation beyond reputek_and_e has a reputation beyond reputek_and_e has a reputation beyond reputek_and_e has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
My question was not "Is everyone planning to make any money at all on a no-deal Brexit, then?

I asked if anyone would make money.

That's the point.

Maybe the same set of people that made billions immediately after, and directly because of the result of the referendum back in 2016 have got themselves positioned to hit the jackpot once again if BoJo pulls a no deal off.

Either you are very naive or perhaps unwilling to admit that, yes, a certain set of people close to Westminster and the PM himself have indeed made significant profits on these particular events.

a no-deal would of course be a great time for the advisory sector. apart from that, anyone who thrives in chaos will do well.
Reply With Quote
  #22773  
Old 27.09.2019, 11:56
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
View Post
Maybe lighten up a bit.
How dare you? I will not
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank for this useful post:
  #22774  
Old 27.09.2019, 12:02
st2lemans's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Lugano
Posts: 27,833
Groaned at 1,818 Times in 1,384 Posts
Thanked 32,663 Times in 15,609 Posts
st2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
View Post
The Irish grid is in the process of being hooked up directly to France to maintain the internal electricity market.


Tom
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank st2lemans for this useful post:
  #22775  
Old 27.09.2019, 12:12
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Vaud
Posts: 2,277
Groaned at 152 Times in 105 Posts
Thanked 4,525 Times in 1,734 Posts
Mikers has a reputation beyond reputeMikers has a reputation beyond reputeMikers has a reputation beyond reputeMikers has a reputation beyond reputeMikers has a reputation beyond reputeMikers has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
How dare you? I will not
I think Im the one who needs to lighten up a bit re reading it - apologies! I will give myself a good kicking this side before we return to johnson bashing (ahem).
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank Mikers for this useful post:
  #22776  
Old 27.09.2019, 14:50
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Geneva
Posts: 539
Groaned at 62 Times in 38 Posts
Thanked 1,098 Times in 633 Posts
Reb77Br has a reputation beyond reputeReb77Br has a reputation beyond reputeReb77Br has a reputation beyond reputeReb77Br has a reputation beyond reputeReb77Br has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

See a Labour MP confront Dominic Cummings about Boris Johnson's language and getting death threats and Cummings' reaction: "get Brexit done".

Dominic Cummings: Anger at MPs 'not surprising', PM's adviser says
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Reb77Br for this useful post:
  #22777  
Old 27.09.2019, 16:04
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Küsnacht, Switzerland
Posts: 3,219
Groaned at 89 Times in 83 Posts
Thanked 9,167 Times in 4,201 Posts
Blueangel has a reputation beyond reputeBlueangel has a reputation beyond reputeBlueangel has a reputation beyond reputeBlueangel has a reputation beyond reputeBlueangel has a reputation beyond reputeBlueangel has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Makes you wonder if he only gets paid if he gets the result he's been employed to.
Reply With Quote
  #22778  
Old 27.09.2019, 19:09
Newbie 1st class
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Vaud
Posts: 13
Groaned at 1 Time in 1 Post
Thanked 30 Times in 12 Posts
autopoiesis is considered knowledgeableautopoiesis is considered knowledgeableautopoiesis is considered knowledgeable
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Bojo used some interesting language when talking alongside Taoiseach Leo Varadkar last week:


"[...] I want to get a deal. Like you, I’ve looked carefully at No Deal. I have assessed its consequences, both for our country and yours. And, yes, of course, we could do it, the UK could certainly get through it. But be in no doubt that it would be a failure of statecraft for which we would all be responsible [...]"


Unpicking: Worryingly, Johnson clearly views himself as a Statesman (cf politician, hack, opportunist, etc). Note also that "statecraft" is a loaded word, with implications of the grand game, and thus of the kind of conniving, double-crossing and gamesmanship (cf sportsmanship) for which Britain - mostly England - has earned a reputation over the centuries.



Credit for any successful conclusion of a new Deal would undoubtedly go to Mr Johnson. Any failure, of course, is to be shared. It appears that one mid-term consequence of any Brexit would be the re-unification of Ireland, and the departure of Scotland.



Johnson clearly wants not to go down in history as the man who lost the Union, but the hero who saved it - the 21st century Churchill. How, then, can he come up with a scheme which:


- keeps him in power
- does not break up the Union
- does not break up the Conservative party
- is accepted by the EU

My two pennies' worth, and a conspiracy theory, if you will.


Premises:

1. The € is knackered, and susceptible to a nasty crash if nudged in the right (or wrong) way
2. The restructuring of also-knackered Deutschbank (exposured to - apparently - ~20x more toxic/derivative/unknown debt and risk than that which brought down Lehman Brothers) was essential to avoidance of a euro crash, likely with globally-felt consequences and possibly worse than 2008 et seq
3. The financial power of the City of London is such that appropriate market nudges (or, perhaps, targeted inaction) could precipitate the crash of the €, and thus the European project so beloved of FR and DE

In other words, 'we' might have stronger cards up 'our' sleeves than we realise, or openly admit. How might a cynical Statesman use them?

Boris:"Oi, Tusk/Barnier/Merkel/feckless bunch, our final demands:
1. Full control over immigration
2. No hard border in Ireland
3. Full, tarrif-free access to the EU market for all our goods and services, as if we were still a member state
4. 'Special' consultation status with respect to new Regulations, and no exit bill to pay
5. All the fish"

[(1) to keep Mr & Mrs white van driver happy;(2) to avoid Irish reunification;(3) to avoid Scot departure;(4) give veneer of sovereignty, keep Tories happy.]

EU: You must be out of your f#*$ing mind!
Boris: Give it, give it, give it all, or my chums in the City will f#!k your €uro in four interesting and intriguing ways!
EU: But, that would bring the whole European project crashing down, you psycho!
Boris: What would I care, when my place in History is at stake?
EU: Holy carp, he means it!
Boris: Ha ha! Sign here...
EU: Well, OK then but we'll all hate you forever!
Boris: No matter, my true friends are in Washington. Now, put that bust of mine above Winston's

A short while later...
Boris: "Verumtamen domine mi rex I vicisti! Et futurum regnum tuum constitit. Mihi crede!"*
Brenda (for it is she): "Arise, Sir Boris."
Boris: "Avada Kedavra!"

*"Your Majesty, I have triumphed! The future of your kingdom is assured. Trust me!"
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users would like to thank autopoiesis for this useful post:
  #22779  
Old 27.09.2019, 20:17
22 yards's Avatar
Only in moderation
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Basel-Land
Posts: 8,374
Groaned at 247 Times in 200 Posts
Thanked 16,301 Times in 6,735 Posts
22 yards has a reputation beyond repute22 yards has a reputation beyond repute22 yards has a reputation beyond repute22 yards has a reputation beyond repute22 yards has a reputation beyond repute22 yards has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
View Post
Bojo used some interesting language when talking alongside Taoiseach Leo Varadkar last week:


"[...] I want to get a deal. Like you, I’ve looked carefully at No Deal. I have assessed its consequences, both for our country and yours. And, yes, of course, we could do it, the UK could certainly get through it. But be in no doubt that it would be a failure of statecraft for which we would all be responsible [...]"


Unpicking: Worryingly, Johnson clearly views himself as a Statesman (cf politician, hack, opportunist, etc). Note also that "statecraft" is a loaded word, with implications of the grand game, and thus of the kind of conniving, double-crossing and gamesmanship (cf sportsmanship) for which Britain - mostly England - has earned a reputation over the centuries.



Credit for any successful conclusion of a new Deal would undoubtedly go to Mr Johnson. Any failure, of course, is to be shared. It appears that one mid-term consequence of any Brexit would be the re-unification of Ireland, and the departure of Scotland.



Johnson clearly wants not to go down in history as the man who lost the Union, but the hero who saved it - the 21st century Churchill. How, then, can he come up with a scheme which:


- keeps him in power
- does not break up the Union
- does not break up the Conservative party
- is accepted by the EU

My two pennies' worth, and a conspiracy theory, if you will.


Premises:

1. The € is knackered, and susceptible to a nasty crash if nudged in the right (or wrong) way
2. The restructuring of also-knackered Deutschbank (exposured to - apparently - ~20x more toxic/derivative/unknown debt and risk than that which brought down Lehman Brothers) was essential to avoidance of a euro crash, likely with globally-felt consequences and possibly worse than 2008 et seq
3. The financial power of the City of London is such that appropriate market nudges (or, perhaps, targeted inaction) could precipitate the crash of the €, and thus the European project so beloved of FR and DE

In other words, 'we' might have stronger cards up 'our' sleeves than we realise, or openly admit. How might a cynical Statesman use them?

Boris:"Oi, Tusk/Barnier/Merkel/feckless bunch, our final demands:
1. Full control over immigration
2. No hard border in Ireland
3. Full, tarrif-free access to the EU market for all our goods and services, as if we were still a member state
4. 'Special' consultation status with respect to new Regulations, and no exit bill to pay
5. All the fish"

[(1) to keep Mr & Mrs white van driver happy;(2) to avoid Irish reunification;(3) to avoid Scot departure;(4) give veneer of sovereignty, keep Tories happy.]

EU: You must be out of your f#*$ing mind!
Boris: Give it, give it, give it all, or my chums in the City will f#!k your €uro in four interesting and intriguing ways!
EU: But, that would bring the whole European project crashing down, you psycho!
Boris: What would I care, when my place in History is at stake?
EU: Holy carp, he means it!
Boris: Ha ha! Sign here...
EU: Well, OK then but we'll all hate you forever!
Boris: No matter, my true friends are in Washington. Now, put that bust of mine above Winston's

A short while later...
Boris: "Verumtamen domine mi rex I vicisti! Et futurum regnum tuum constitit. Mihi crede!"*
Brenda (for it is she): "Arise, Sir Boris."
Boris: "Avada Kedavra!"

*"Your Majesty, I have triumphed! The future of your kingdom is assured. Trust me!"
DB, you know that dupe accounts get banned, right?


But seriously, nice, creative post.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank 22 yards for this useful post:
  #22780  
Old 27.09.2019, 20:34
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 8,628
Groaned at 369 Times in 319 Posts
Thanked 14,599 Times in 8,000 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
View Post
DB, you know that dupe accounts get banned, right?


But seriously, nice, creative post.
Go get him, but not this month.........
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
europe




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Latest Referendum, what will be consequences for EU (C permit and B permit) holders? expat2014 Permits/visas/government 3 11.02.2014 08:59
Importing vehicles and the VAT consequences in Switzerland from France BEFO Finance/banking/taxation 6 07.08.2013 15:11
The (Available in CH) Dog Food Review Thread meloncollie Pet corner 44 08.05.2012 20:15
Common-law marriage and consequences in CH Mishto Family matters/health 9 01.10.2011 22:03
Something for the Brits: M&S in CH mark Daily life 11 15.11.2007 12:18


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 11:02.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0