The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Anyone shorting the £ would likely have lost a huge amount of money unless they got timing absolutely right & nobody does. Rather like buying bitcoin in the last 4 months, you would have lost money buying on almost every day if you cashed out today.

Maybe that's true if you are talking about two-bit hobby investors but the big boys in the real world have got it all sewn up...

	Quote:
	From the financial data publicly available, Byline Times can reveal that currently £4,563,350,000 (£4.6 billion) of aggregate short positions on a ‘no deal’ Brexit have been taken out by hedge funds that directly or indirectly bankrolled Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign. Most of these firms also donated to Vote Leave and took out short positions on the EU Referendum result. The ones which didn’t typically didn’t exist at that time but are invariably connected via directorships to companies that did. Another £3,711,000,000 (£3.7 billion) of these short positions have been taken out by firms that donated to the Vote Leave campaign, but did not donate directly to the Johnson leadership campaign. Currently, £8,274,350,000 (£8.3 billion) of aggregate short positions has been taken out by hedge funds connected to the Prime Minister and his Vote Leave campaign, run by his advisor Dominic Cummings, on a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

To paraphrase further down the article - no wonder Boris would prefer to be "dead in a ditch" than not deliver a no-deal. There are probably plenty of people willing to help him achieve that boggy goal if he fails.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Maybe that's true if you are talking about two-bit hobby investors but the big boys in the real world have got it all sewn up...

It's not clear if they have profited or not, often trades are hedges & not naked bets. Swiss pension funds tend to do this as they are risk averse.
Warren Buffet took on a bet that nobody could pick a hedge fund that would outperform the S&P500 over 10 years, only 1 person accepted the bet & lost. Hedge funds perform badly & make many poor bets.

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	Lol, I lived there about 15 years and saw zero police patrols, maybe 2 police cars total when responding to a burglary. No roads were ever repaired / upgraded. No firemen were ever called out. As I said, no doubt an exception, but that village was certainly a net contributor.

But they were still paid for, the firemen, the police, the schools, the hospital. Every year. So I wouldn't be so certain unless you have the accounts to hand, the likelihood is the proportional income of tax from the residents did not cover all council expenditure.

The rioting post was a humorous comment around people from towns and villages always choosing to protest in cities, not a scientific deconstruction of cost vs expenditure of different demographics across the UK. Maybe lighten up a bit.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	It's not clear if they have profited or not, often trades are hedges & not naked bets. Swiss pension funds tend to do this as they are risk averse. Warren Buffet took on a bet that nobody could pick a hedge fund that would outperform the S&P500 over 10 years, only 1 person accepted the bet & lost. Hedge funds perform badly & make many poor bets.

So in your opinion you don't think anyone is planning to make any money at all on a no-deal Brexit, then?

Nobody made any money in the aftermath of the EU referendum, either, right?

[amogles]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	This might not be far from reality, at least for NI. The Irish grid is in the process of being hooked up directly to France to maintain the internal electricity market. In the event of a no deal the surplus that used to go north will start heading south.

you don't seem to understand how grids work.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	The best you can get is what happened / is happening now, where the incumbent government has said it will follow the referendum results. In the extremely unlikely event of a Lib Dem election win though, they would tear it up and revoke article 50, and would be entitled to do so, legally.

Cameron wasn't in a position to make that promise, that's the parliament's decision. Without the Article 50 bill he/May couldn't have legally invoked it.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I'm pretty sure there would be riots if a 2nd Referendum overturned the result of the 1st. The difference is, nearly every major city in the UK voted remain the first time, so protesters/rioters would be coming in from outside the cities.

In other words, you believe that only majorities riot?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	So in your opinion you don't think anyone is planning to make any money at all on a no-deal Brexit, then? Nobody made any money in the aftermath of the EU referendum, either, right?

For every winner there is someone on the other side of the bet who lost. People plan to make money currency trading, very few do will have made money over the last 3 years as not all bets will be won. If it was easy Banks would never need to have rights issues or be refinanced.

Last year only 4% of UK fund managers made any money for their clients, 96% lost money although it was not their intention.

[TonyClifton]

Why does Boris Johnson have to go Dinivan? The mechanisms are in place to remove him but none of the opposition parties dare do it. Would you believe he still has to go we’re he to win a majority in an election?

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	For every winner there is someone on the other side of the bet who lost. People plan to make money currency trading, very few do will have made money over the last 3 years as not all bets will be won. If it was easy Banks would never need to have rights issues or be refinanced.

My question was not "Is everyone planning to make any money at all on a no-deal Brexit, then?

I asked if anyone would make money.

That's the point.

Maybe the same set of people that made billions immediately after, and directly because of the result of the referendum back in 2016 have got themselves positioned to hit the jackpot once again if BoJo pulls a no deal off.

Either you are very naive or perhaps unwilling to admit that, yes, a certain set of people close to Westminster and the PM himself have indeed made significant profits on these particular events.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:
	My question was not "Is everyone planning to make any money at all on a no-deal Brexit, then? I asked if anyone would make money. That's the point. Maybe the same set of people that made billions immediately after, and directly because of the result of the referendum back in 2016 have got themselves positioned to hit the jackpot once again if BoJo pulls a no deal off. Either you are very naive or perhaps unwilling to admit that, yes, a certain set of people close to Westminster and the PM himself have indeed made significant profits on these particular events.

well I heard a figure of 8 billion so far spent preparing for brexit, so someone somewhere is raking it in

[k_and_e]

	Quote:
	My question was not "Is everyone planning to make any money at all on a no-deal Brexit, then? I asked if anyone would make money. That's the point. Maybe the same set of people that made billions immediately after, and directly because of the result of the referendum back in 2016 have got themselves positioned to hit the jackpot once again if BoJo pulls a no deal off. Either you are very naive or perhaps unwilling to admit that, yes, a certain set of people close to Westminster and the PM himself have indeed made significant profits on these particular events.

a no-deal would of course be a great time for the advisory sector. apart from that, anyone who thrives in chaos will do well.

	Quote:	Mikers
	Maybe lighten up a bit.

How dare you? I will not

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	The Irish grid is in the process of being hooked up directly to France to maintain the internal electricity market.

Tom

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	How dare you? I will not

I think Im the one who needs to lighten up a bit re reading it - apologies! I will give myself a good kicking this side before we return to johnson bashing (ahem).

[Reb77Br]

See a Labour MP confront Dominic Cummings about Boris Johnson's language and getting death threats and Cummings' reaction: "get Brexit done".

Dominic Cummings: Anger at MPs 'not surprising', PM's adviser says

[Blueangel]

Makes you wonder if he only gets paid if he gets the result he's been employed to.

[autopoiesis]

Bojo used some interesting language when talking alongside Taoiseach Leo Varadkar last week:


"[...] I want to get a deal. Like you, I’ve looked carefully at No Deal. I have assessed its consequences, both for our country and yours. And, yes, of course, we could do it, the UK could certainly get through it. But be in no doubt that it would be a failure of statecraft for which we would all be responsible [...]"


Unpicking: Worryingly, Johnson clearly views himself as a Statesman (cf politician, hack, opportunist, etc). Note also that "statecraft" is a loaded word, with implications of the grand game, and thus of the kind of conniving, double-crossing and gamesmanship (cf sportsmanship) for which Britain - mostly England - has earned a reputation over the centuries.



Credit for any successful conclusion of a new Deal would undoubtedly go to Mr Johnson. Any failure, of course, is to be shared. It appears that one mid-term consequence of any Brexit would be the re-unification of Ireland, and the departure of Scotland.



Johnson clearly wants not to go down in history as the man who lost the Union, but the hero who saved it - the 21st century Churchill. How, then, can he come up with a scheme which:


- keeps him in power
- does not break up the Union
- does not break up the Conservative party
- is accepted by the EU

My two pennies' worth, and a conspiracy theory, if you will.


Premises:

1. The € is knackered, and susceptible to a nasty crash if nudged in the right (or wrong) way
2. The restructuring of also-knackered Deutschbank (exposured to - apparently - ~20x more toxic/derivative/unknown debt and risk than that which brought down Lehman Brothers) was essential to avoidance of a euro crash, likely with globally-felt consequences and possibly worse than 2008 et seq
3. The financial power of the City of London is such that appropriate market nudges (or, perhaps, targeted inaction) could precipitate the crash of the €, and thus the European project so beloved of FR and DE

In other words, 'we' might have stronger cards up 'our' sleeves than we realise, or openly admit. How might a cynical Statesman use them?

Boris:"Oi, Tusk/Barnier/Merkel/feckless bunch, our final demands:
1. Full control over immigration
2. No hard border in Ireland
3. Full, tarrif-free access to the EU market for all our goods and services, as if we were still a member state
4. 'Special' consultation status with respect to new Regulations, and no exit bill to pay
5. All the fish"

[(1) to keep Mr & Mrs white van driver happy;(2) to avoid Irish reunification;(3) to avoid Scot departure;(4) give veneer of sovereignty, keep Tories happy.]

EU: You must be out of your f#*$ing mind!
Boris: Give it, give it, give it all, or my chums in the City will f#!k your €uro in four interesting and intriguing ways!
EU: But, that would bring the whole European project crashing down, you psycho!
Boris: What would I care, when my place in History is at stake?
EU: Holy carp, he means it!
Boris: Ha ha! Sign here...
EU: Well, OK then but we'll all hate you forever!
Boris: No matter, my true friends are in Washington. Now, put that bust of mine above Winston's

A short while later...
Boris: "Verumtamen domine mi rex I vicisti! Et futurum regnum tuum constitit. Mihi crede!"*
Brenda (for it is she): "Arise, Sir Boris."
Boris: "Avada Kedavra!"

*"Your Majesty, I have triumphed! The future of your kingdom is assured. Trust me!"

	Quote:	autopoiesis
	Bojo used some interesting language when talking alongside Taoiseach Leo Varadkar last week: "[...] I want to get a deal. Like you, I’ve looked carefully at No Deal. I have assessed its consequences, both for our country and yours. And, yes, of course, we could do it, the UK could certainly get through it. But be in no doubt that it would be a failure of statecraft for which we would all be responsible [...]" Unpicking: Worryingly, Johnson clearly views himself as a Statesman (cf politician, hack, opportunist, etc). Note also that "statecraft" is a loaded word, with implications of the grand game, and thus of the kind of conniving, double-crossing and gamesmanship (cf sportsmanship) for which Britain - mostly England - has earned a reputation over the centuries. Credit for any successful conclusion of a new Deal would undoubtedly go to Mr Johnson. Any failure, of course, is to be shared. It appears that one mid-term consequence of any Brexit would be the re-unification of Ireland, and the departure of Scotland. Johnson clearly wants not to go down in history as the man who lost the Union, but the hero who saved it - the 21st century Churchill. How, then, can he come up with a scheme which: - keeps him in power - does not break up the Union - does not break up the Conservative party - is accepted by the EU My two pennies' worth, and a conspiracy theory, if you will. Premises: 1. The € is knackered, and susceptible to a nasty crash if nudged in the right (or wrong) way 2. The restructuring of also-knackered Deutschbank (exposured to - apparently - ~20x more toxic/derivative/unknown debt and risk than that which brought down Lehman Brothers) was essential to avoidance of a euro crash, likely with globally-felt consequences and possibly worse than 2008 et seq 3. The financial power of the City of London is such that appropriate market nudges (or, perhaps, targeted inaction) could precipitate the crash of the €, and thus the European project so beloved of FR and DE In other words, 'we' might have stronger cards up 'our' sleeves than we realise, or openly admit. How might a cynical Statesman use them? Boris:"Oi, Tusk/Barnier/Merkel/feckless bunch, our final demands: 1. Full control over immigration 2. No hard border in Ireland 3. Full, tarrif-free access to the EU market for all our goods and services, as if we were still a member state 4. 'Special' consultation status with respect to new Regulations, and no exit bill to pay 5. All the fish" [(1) to keep Mr & Mrs white van driver happy;(2) to avoid Irish reunification;(3) to avoid Scot departure;(4) give veneer of sovereignty, keep Tories happy.] EU: You must be out of your f#*$ing mind! Boris: Give it, give it, give it all, or my chums in the City will f#!k your €uro in four interesting and intriguing ways! EU: But, that would bring the whole European project crashing down, you psycho! Boris: What would I care, when my place in History is at stake? EU: Holy carp, he means it! Boris: Ha ha! Sign here... EU: Well, OK then but we'll all hate you forever! Boris: No matter, my true friends are in Washington. Now, put that bust of mine above Winston's A short while later... Boris: "Verumtamen domine mi rex I vicisti! Et futurum regnum tuum constitit. Mihi crede!"* Brenda (for it is she): "Arise, Sir Boris." Boris: "Avada Kedavra!" *"Your Majesty, I have triumphed! The future of your kingdom is assured. Trust me!"

DB, you know that dupe accounts get banned, right?


But seriously, nice, creative post.

[marton]

	Quote:
	DB, you know that dupe accounts get banned, right? But seriously, nice, creative post.

Go get him, but not this month.........