The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[FrankZappa]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	You're wrong here: both can't take it. The difference is that the UK action would be a yolo action and would be harming itself mainly, whereas EU leadership would have to explain it to all its member countries and citizens.

Sitting here in France, I don't see there will be anything to explain. The French are just looking on in amazement at the UK's act of self-destruction. Not a peep about acting to prevent the economic damage of whatever the UK decides.

[Troublawesome]

I don't think any EU country would blame the EU leadership in case of no Deal. It is clear to everyone the UK has gone fanatical and people would rather teach them a lesson than succumb to Trump-like bullying by Bojo the clown.

I'd dare say I think it's the opposite actually, European people wouldn't forgive the EU leadership if they gave in to the clown's blackmail. Recession is coming anyway, might as well be able to look ourselves in the mirror when it does.

These days democracy is worth more this side of the English channel. If the UK want a deregulated, chlorinated-chicken, Americanized shithole they'll stand alone.

I give it less than 10 years before they're begging to come back once they see Trump has no friends and he'll screw them over. I'm just not sure Europe will be ready to take them back, pain of a divorce goes both ways.

The massive mistake almost everyone makes on both sides is to imagine that Brexit is a finality.

It's the exact opposite.

It would merely be the beginning of a very long, complex, expensive and arduous process of the UK renegotiating hundreds of agreements of all kinds, including over 750 trade agreements, most of them with countries that are not in the EU.

While the EU27 members would continue uninterrupted trade with the other EU countries and also uninterrupted trade under FTAs with other countries outside it, from the position of force and influence that only a massive trading bloc of 450 million can provide, the UK will be starting again from scratch.

As a nation of only 66 million, it will of course be in an inferior bargaining position than it has been in the past 45 years, with an economy based on services for 80% of its GDP rather than on manufacturing, goods and agriculture.

Those are not arguments one way or the other. Those are simply the facts.

People have some waking up to do. A look at the true demographic and trading facts would be a place to start.

Brexit would be like the very beginning of a long car journey. Brexit ends with unlocking the car door.

It's afterwards that the engine will have to be started, the route mapped out, the wheels set in motion and the actual trip started with all its traffic problems and inevitable accidents along the way.

It will be expensive, complicated, long and difficult. No one denies this any longer. Not even the government.

So Brexit is not the end of a journey. It is not even the end of the beginning of a journey. It is just the beginning of the beginning.

[Troublawesome]

Negotiating inside the EU has untold advantages and friction less trade can continue uninterrupted. Once no deal happens, the UK is a third country and a trade deal will take 1 more decades to complete with the exact same issues that will need solving first: Ireland, EU citizens, tariffs.

Every country with a trade deal already with the EU, like Japan and Canada will demand the UK doesn't get better terms than them. So the best the UK can get is worse than what they already have today, it can never get better!

Not many people in the UK understand that. No Deal Brexit is really the nightmare scenario but I start to believe people need to experience the pain and hardship as they've become too soft 7 decades without a war. They need to understand their place in the world and the gratitude they should owe to the European project. Peace can never be underestimated.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	FrankZappa
	Sitting here in France, I don't see there will be anything to explain. The French are just looking on in amazement at the UK's act of self-destruction. Not a peep about acting to prevent the economic damage of whatever the UK decides.

I think everybody in watching in amazement and I also don't see it happen. Unless someone forgets to withdraw article 50 on 31st October.

[Dinivan]

The UK has done a favour to the EU. Europhilia is high; even the most right-wing populist parties in the continent only talk now of reform of the EU, when they are not losing elections, and I had never seen so many pro-EU Britons. It would have been sadder to see this happen if the price to pay had been France, the NL, Germany... but the UK's government has always been a pain in the ass, not to mention Farage's MEPs. The constant moaning was insufferable, as are the constant lies of the manipulative British press (BBC, The Guardian, FT, TE being notable exceptions). The country now has a PM that got sacked for lying in a newspaper when he was a journalist! An extension will likely be granted if requested, but I bet that many Europeans are willing to cut loose and they will be disappointed if the extension is granted, only to keep the UK politicians running around like chicken for several more months without offering alternative plans and real proposals to solve the mess that they have created in Northern Ireland.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	I think everybody in watching in amazement and I also don't see it happen. Unless someone forgets to withdraw article 50 on 31st October.

I've just read that the PM wants it written into the deal he's negotiating with the EU that, the EU will offer no further extensions. The plan for triple border checks in Ireland looks like one of those photos of the webs a spider weaves when it's stoned.

	Quote:
	The massive mistake almost everyone makes on both sides is to imagine that Brexit is a finality. It's the exact opposite. It would merely be the beginning of a very long, complex, expensive and arduous process of the UK renegotiating hundreds of agreements of all kinds, including over 750 trade agreements, most of them with countries that are not in the EU. While the EU27 members would continue uninterrupted trade with the other EU countries and also uninterrupted trade under FTAs with other countries outside it, from the position of force and influence that only a massive trading bloc of 450 million can provide, the UK will be starting again from scratch. As a nation of only 66 million, it will of course be in an inferior bargaining position than it has been in the past 45 years, with an economy based on services for 80% of its GDP rather than on manufacturing, goods and agriculture. Those are not arguments one way or the other. Those are simply the facts. People have some waking up to do. A look at the true demographic and trading facts would be a place to start. Brexit would be like the very beginning of a long car journey. Brexit ends with unlocking the car door. It's afterwards that the engine will have to be started, the route mapped out, the wheels set in motion and the actual trip started with all its traffic problems and inevitable accidents along the way. It will be expensive, complicated, long and difficult. No one denies this any longer. Not even the government. So Brexit is not the end of a journey. It is not even the end of the beginning of a journey. It is just the beginning of the beginning.

Welcome back, Odile.

If you quote someone verbatim, please attribute the quote accordingly. Like this:

"I found this post dated 28 September by Mike Meade on facebook very interesting."

Thanks.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Troublawesome
	Every country with a trade deal already with the EU, like Japan and Canada will demand the UK doesn't get better terms than them. So the best the UK can get is worse than what they already have today, it can never get better!.

There is already a clause in the agreements with Japan and Canada, that both parties must agree to either party granting a deal as good or better than the one they have agreed between them.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I've just read that the PM wants it written into the deal he's negotiating with the EU that, the EU will offer no further extensions. The plan for triple border checks in Ireland looks like one of those photos of the webs a spider weaves when it's stoned.

It does not really matter, Boris misses the requirement that there is to be NO border on the island of Ireland, that is the purpose of the backstop.

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I've just read that the PM wants it written into the deal he's negotiating with the EU that, the EU will offer no further extensions. The plan for triple border checks in Ireland looks like one of those photos of the webs a spider weaves when it's stoned.

Did the EU ever offer extensions? I thought they just granted extension requests from the UK?
So does Boris want the EU to promise not to grant any future extension requests from the UK? Sounds like he does not expect to be around for long

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	You're wrong here: both can't take it. The difference is that the UK action would be a yolo action and would be harming itself mainly, whereas EU leadership would have to explain it to all its member countries and citizens.

The people in the EU are well informed on the situation and the EU leaders would find in much harder to return to their electorate and explain why they disadvantaged themselves to give the UK the deal they are demanding.

The people in Ireland fully understand that if there is a no deal situation they will have no choice but to put up a border, the surveys have been carried out, the cops have been issued and the army corp of engineers have been assigned the task.

The opposition parties in the Irish parliament are briefed every week by the PM on the situation and they fully support him in these matters. If you listen to Michael Martin, the leader of the opposition, you will find he is fully in line with Leo and has not at any stage criticised his handling of the situation.

In fact one of the unusually aspects of this whole situation was that the Irish political parties concluded that this was far too serious a situation for playing the usual political games and so they came to a consensus right at the start of this in 2016 and they have all held the line for the past three years.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	Did the EU ever offer extensions? I thought they just granted extension requests from the UK? So does Boris want the EU to promise not to grant any future extension requests from the UK? Sounds like he does not expect to be around for long

Sounds like he is clueless if he expects for a minute that the EU would ever agree to be bound by his demands in this way.

[TonyClifton]

Yes you are correct Blueangel and MPs are free to vote how they wish, but they shouldn’t complain having done so if they have the whip removed or get expelled from their party.

Voting for the Benn Act was also far worse for the Conservative Party than not backing Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement. By not voting for Theresa May’s deal MP’s were merely not giving the government the approval which it sort. By backing the Benn Act Rebel MPs voted to take power from a Conservative government and hand it to the Remainer alliance of MPs. This basically allowed Jeremy Corbyn to instruct the government what to do which was enforced by these MPs passing laws. This disempowered the party in which these MPs were elected by their constituents to represent and therefore far worse than not voting for Theresa May’s deal.

And whilst in theory you are correct that Boris Johnson can still go and negotiate a deal with the EU, his hand has been severely weakened. Firstly, it is not a sound negotiating tactic where one doesn’t have the opportunity to walk away from the table. You wouldn’t go into a car dealership and inform the salesman that you’ve brought your chequebook and will be leaving with a car come what may. And secondly, why should the EU offer Boris Johnson an altered deal when, given the current parliamentary numbers, there is absolutely no guarantee it will pass?

[TonyClifton]

There were cross party talks, Dinivan. Theresa May invited all the other parties into discussions earlier this year in order to try and break the deadlock. If I remember correctly, Jeremy Corbyn walked out of the first such meeting because Chuka Umunna was present. The facts of the matter is that within this Parliament there is never going to be a consensus on Brexit which is why a General Election is urgently required.

Control over self governance was one of many reasons that people voted for Brexit, Jim2007, it certainly wasn't the only reason. The sovereign parliament "flexing its muscles" has resulted in a complete departure from the political norms within the UK. The speaker is no longer impartial, the civil service is no longer impartial, the courts are being dragged into politics which has now opened the door for them to become politicised in the future, MPs willfully ignoring the wishes of the constituents, a government that isn't allowed to govern nor seek reelection, the list goes on and on. The entire political system is broken.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	....The speaker is no longer impartial, the civil service is no longer impartial...

I assume you are using the Daily Mail definition of being partial which is anyone that disagrees with them.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	....... the civil service is no longer impartial, .............. the courts are being dragged into politics ............... MPs willfully ignoring the wishes of the constituents, the entire political system is broken.

You are entitled to your opinion that the Civil Service is no longer impartial but if you want us to agree with you then you need to present some facts?

Nothing new about the courts being involved in politics, the UK Supreme Court replaced the opaquely named Appellate Committee of the House of Lords on October 1, 2009, and the rationale for its creation was a clearer distinction between the legislative and judicial functions of the State. Note clearer, not an absolute distinction.

MPs are simply demonstrating the political system is sound and Sovereign; they are not robots.

The whole point of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (FTPA) was to stop governments calling general elections every time they felt like and to ensure a majority of MPs supported. The last general election was two years ago and it is far too soon to call another one simply because Boris decided to fire some MPs, he made his bed and now he has to lie on it!

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	France, Germany & Spain will be in deep shit with no deal, by leaving with no deal you put the ball in their court. A50 states 2 years so no unnecessary hurry at all, the Uk did not choose 2 years as the time frame.

That's the old, and anything but intelligent, argument along the lines of cutting your nose to spite the neighbor.
"Yeah, it will have huge consequences, potentially lethal for many. But a few Irish will die as well so it's all good" - it really can't get any more moronic.
Besides, it's a bit of a change from the initial "every country will want to have a trade deal with the UK, getting them will be trivial".

See the announcement by Next linked to on here a while ago, they count on zero import tariffs, whereas UK's export destinations will be forced to impose 30% import tariffs due to WTO regulations. Obviously that would render UK's exports mostly noncompetitive.

As for all the rest, see Odile's #22843 and Troubleawesome's #22844 for additional elaborations. Plus the two before them.

(Welcome back Odile btw)

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Control over self governance was one of many reasons that people voted for Brexit, Jim2007, it certainly wasn't the only reason.

It was one of the primary reasons.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	The sovereign parliament "flexing its muscles" has resulted in a complete departure from the political norms within the UK.

You do not get to define the powers of a sovereign parliament, that is the point.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	the courts are being dragged into politics which has now opened the door for them to become politicised in the future,

Total nonsense as usual. The court is to adjudicate on the actions of parliament (politicians), just like the are in every other parliament of Westminster style democracy. The courts rightfully adjudged on a constitutional matter, the fact that you don’t like the outcome is neither here nor there because you don’t get to decide on the limits of the Supreme Court.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	MPs willfully ignoring the wishes of the constituents, a government that isn't allowed to govern nor seek reelection, the list goes on and on. The entire political system is broken.

It’s not going your way so it must be broken...

At this stage you’re on ignore because you are just repeating the same old nonsense over and over.

	Quote:
	Welcome back, Odile. If you quote someone verbatim, please attribute the quote accordingly. Like this: "I found this post dated 28 September by Mike Meade on facebook very interesting." Thanks.

Maybe Odile is Mike Meade in reality......