The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

Found this house in 2007 when it was just under 2.50- bought a few months later and it had dropped already. A few weeks ago it dropped to 1.17 and yes, has rallied a tad since.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Found this house in 2007 when it was just under 2.50- bought a few months later and it had dropped already. A few weeks ago it dropped to 1.17 and yes, has rallied a tad since.

It did get close to 2.50 in 2007, even from it's high point in 2007 it has not fallen 60%. Good to have you back on the forum

well, I don't use charts- just experience. So from 2.48 and a bit- to last pension paid at 1.17- I'd say it's close to 60%. Don't worry I am not back not really.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	well, I don't use charts- just experience. So from 2.48 and a bit- to last pension paid at 1.17- I'd say it's close to 60%. Don't worry I am not back not really.

Your pension would never have been paid at 2.48, even if it had been the drop is under 53%

You have done better than that as your UK pension is index linked & UK inflation is higher than Swiss inflation somewhat cushioning the exchange rate decline.

[Jim2007]

No-deal Brexit: NI guide dogs face sea trip to enter Republic of Ireland

I would assume it will be the same for all of the U.K. until it has gone through the process of becoming a listed third country.

It's totally irrelevant what happens on 31 October, just something defining needs to happen because in limbo nothing happens and this really is the worst case scenario

So here it is. He will write and send the letter- knowing that one country will reject the extension.

'Kevin Maguire
@Kevin_Maguire
Boris Johnson persuading probably the most reactionary Right-wing racist and homophobic government in Europe, Viktor Orban's Fidesz in Hungary, to block a British extension would be both shaming and unprincipled. Thankfully he's likely to fail. Again.'

how much will the bribe be, I wonder

[Jim2007]

	Quote:
	So here it is. He will write and send the letter- knowing that one country will reject the extension. 'Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire Boris Johnson persuading probably the most reactionary Right-wing racist and homophobic government in Europe, Viktor Orban's Fidesz in Hungary, to block a British extension would be both shaming and unprincipled. Thankfully he's likely to fail. Again.' how much will the bribe be, I wonder

With Hungary's membership rights under review, the last think Orban can afford to do is start playing silly buggers with Boris.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Relax. His previous great hope turned out to be a political analyst with zero legal qualifications

This is the section which sets out what Boris must send, "(4)The Prime Minister must seek to obtain from the European Council an extension of the period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union ending at 11.00pm on 31 October 2019 by sending to the President of the European Council a letter in the form set out in the Schedule to this Act requesting an extension of that period to 11.00pm on 31 January 2020 in order to debate and pass a Bill to implement the agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, including provisions reflecting the outcome of inter-party talks as announced by the Prime Minister on 21 May 2019, and in particular the need for the United Kingdom to secure changes to the political declaration to reflect the outcome of those inter-party talks."

It's not clear to me that this is possible, because there is no "agreement between the UK and the EU under Art50(2)." The commons themselves rejected the proposed agreement, and under house rules it cannot even be reintroduced in the current session. S.4 therefore presents Boris with an impossibility.

The opposition seems to have overlooked is that you can’t enforce an order for the impossible (plenty of caselaw).

Bye Bye EU

[Blueangel]

Just having a giggle at a twitter poll on The Brexit Party's website entitled - "If a referendum on the #EU was held tomorrow, would you vote to:" Currently, over 25k votes have been cast and the running totals are:

Leave with a deal 4%
Remain as we are now 54%
Leave without a deal 6%
Remain and integrate more 36%

https://twitter.com/BrexitPartyGB/st...12202862219270

10 hours left to go though...

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Just having a giggle at a twitter poll on The Brexit Party's website entitled - "If a referendum on the #EU was held tomorrow, would you vote to:" Currently, over 25k votes have been cast and the running totals are: Leave with a deal 4% Remain as we are now 54% Leave without a deal 6% Remain and integrate more 36% https://twitter.com/BrexitPartyGB/st...12202862219270 10 hours left to go though...

quote from the tweet

	Quote:
	Sadly this is the parody account.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	quote from the tweet

I know it's a parody, but it still makes me laugh. The real account users refuse to engage in debate. Bunch of spineless muppets and bots.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I know it's a parody, but it still makes me laugh. The real account users refuse to engage in debate. Bunch of spineless muppets and bots.

If you know it's a parody then why not mention it? This is posting 100% fake news.

	Quote:	k_and_e
	quote from the tweet ("Sadly this is the parody account")

Does that make a difference to the poll results, especially if many people don't realise it's a parody? It's not as though they're parody votes.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:
	Does that make a difference to the poll results, especially if many people don't realise it's a parody? It's not as though they're parody votes.

They are parody votes. Do you believe that there is still 4% that wants to leave with a deal?

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	If you know it's a parody then why not mention it? This is posting 100% fake news.

Because two things make it immediately apparent that it's a parody account.

"Brexit since 2016. Vote Brexit Get Brexit. Brexit Means Brexit. We 'Heart' Brexit. Brexit IS Brexit. Brexit Parody Account. Brexit! #Brexit for Breakfast"
...and...
"@BrexitPartyGB"

Brits would, or rather should, know that GB does not include Northern Ireland, and that Brexit is about the UK, not GB, leaving the EU.

Anyway, for any geeks wanting a legal update of the past week's events, this is the latest blog from David Allen Green.

https://davidallengreen.com/2019/10/...xit-extension/

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	They are parody votes. Do you believe that there is still 4% that wants to leave with a deal?

I don't believe anything on twitter polls because anyone in the world can vote on them. Registered British voters living outside of the UK are excluded from YouGov polls and the likes, but on social media, anyone can vote. Also, many of the polls used as reference for the media have phenomenally small sample groups, some even under 2,000.

Little geek fact... in the UK, GE exit polls are based on a sample size as low as 20k. For the EU Referendum, there were no official exit polls at all as there were no previous measures to make the exercise worthwhile, e.g. no 'swing votes' of shifts in voting patterns to assess.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	It's not clear to me that this is possible, because there is no "agreement between the UK and the EU under Art50(2)." The commons themselves rejected the proposed agreement, and under house rules it cannot even be reintroduced in the current session. S.4 therefore presents Boris with an impossibility. The opposition seems to have overlooked is that you can’t enforce an order for the impossible (plenty of caselaw). Bye Bye EU

Of course it is not clear to you....

The HOC refused to ratify the agreement.... the agreement was signed by T. May and is sitting there still awaiting ratification. How do you think she could have kept bring it back if it had been rejected.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Of course it is not clear to you.... The HOC refused to ratify the agreement.... the agreement was signed by T. May and is sitting there still awaiting ratification. How do you think she could have kept bring it back if it had been rejected.

Nothing signed unless someone is telling porkies and besides, absent some weird side letter agreement, it would be treated as rejected if counter offers have been going backwards and forwards since then. But then you would know that

Boris could put a proposal saying “in all good faith we think you have defrauded us by a trillion over the years but we’ll accept €60 billion and Juncker’s wine cellar and yes I’ll take that to parliament for a vote whenever you want”.

UK does get the worst deal of any country, it's amazing how astute the voters were in the referendum

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	UK does get the worst deal of any country, it's amazing how astute the voters were in the referendum

The deal they were offered was based on their redline items. And if you expect that the EU is going to disadvantage themselves to give you the deal you want, then you are going to be very disappointed.

And an this point I'd done responding to this kind of nonsense.