The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[lewton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I think leaving the single market is likely to be the most profitable aspect of leaving, going forward.

Thinking is free.

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Which are they? From Next Plc's "Brexit planning document": "The Government has announced a temporary tariff regime in the event of a no-deal Brexit. This temporary measure will ensure 87%1 of UK imports will be tariff free for up to 12 months following a no-deal Brexit." Now, the question is of course what the remaining 13% are and what happens after those 12 months, but at any rate that doesn't imply lots price increase for the time being. For clothing retailers such as Next it actually means a reduction. That may well be the general case. Just don't ask what that means for UK employers and employees. Especially given that, assuming the UK can keep indeed export under WTO rules in the first place despite the dozens of objections against May's proposition, the typical UK export will get 30% import tariff slashed on and financial passporting rights will probably no longer exist.

So the farmers and the other industries that the tariffs were designed to protect have been betrayed left out in the cold.
Maybe they can find new jobs in the EU, oh wait a minute; no more freedom of movement!

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	So the farmers and the other industries that the tariffs were designed to protect have been betrayed left out in the cold.

Maybe, depends on what the remaining 13% are.

You take pride in using original documents only, maybe you can be bothered to find the relevant document(s)
(I certainly can't, won't blame you if you refuse)

	Quote:	marton
	Maybe they can find new jobs in the EU, oh wait a minute; no more freedom of movement!

Yup. It looks like many will get screwed royally. That said, special arrangements with CH will kick in, not sure we'll like that all that much.

'That said, special arrangements with CH will kick in, not sure we'll like that all that much. '

who is the Royal 'we' here?

But yes, many Remainers have realised that Switzerland now has an agreement- and that it may well be the best place to move to escape post Brexit UK. Competition coming for jobs, etc, for sure. And actually a good place to retire as health care will continue to be covered via form S1. A huge relief, as we got our official letters last week, and taken a massive amount of stress and worry off our shoulders (exchange rate now remaining as the only issue- as long as we can continue to trave back and forth with doggie- will be changing her passport for Swiss one asap).

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Maybe, depends on what the remaining 13% are. You take pride in using original documents only, maybe you can be bothered to find the relevant document(s) (I certainly can't, won't blame you if you refuse) Yup. It looks like many will get screwed royally. That said, special arrangements with CH will kick in, not sure we'll like that all that much.

Whoever is in the remaining 13% it appears that, as you say, 87% will get screwed royally. Unless the vast majority of tariffs were unecessary for protection?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Just don't ask what that means for UK employers and employees. Especially given that, assuming the UK can keep indeed export under WTO rules in the first place despite the dozens of objections against May's proposition, the typical UK export will get 30% import tariff slashed on and financial passporting rights will probably no longer exist.

It is not just export tariffs that will impact UK companies, under WTO rules, all 168 members of the will be entitled to export to the UK tariff free, so completion at home will also be on a different basis.

Financial services are in no way covered by the WTO, so that is gone.

[Dinivan]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Nothing signed unless someone is telling porkies and besides, absent some weird side letter agreement, it would be treated as rejected if counter offers have been going backwards and forwards since then. But then you would know that Boris could put a proposal saying “in all good faith we think you have defrauded us by a trillion over the years but we’ll accept €60 billion and Juncker’s wine cellar and yes I’ll take that to parliament for a vote whenever you want”. UK does get the worst deal of any country, it's amazing how astute the voters were in the referendum

Where does this data of yours come from? what is it meant to represent?

On a per capita basis, according to the BBC, the Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, and Denmark, contribute more towards the EU budget than the UK - and we are talking of a meagre €80 per person and year in the British case.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Dinivan
	Where does this data of yours come from? what is it meant to represent? On a per capita basis, according to the BBC, the Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, and Denmark, contribute more towards the EU budget than the UK - and we are talking of a meagre €80 per person and year in the British case.

BBC is very pro E.U. Who cares on a per capita basis, Other than to make a point? So UK gets a discount based on economies of scale. The majority of the electorate thought it's better to leave.
A large proportion of the population don't contribute a net €80 the the exchequer.

[fatmanfilms]

Amazed nobody has mentioned Tony Blair's 2004 Civil Contingencies law, if all else fails then Boris can rely on Tony's foresight

[bowlie]

	Quote:
	The majority of the electorate thought it's better to leave.

Absolute rubbish.


Of the British Population (64.6 million on the day) just 26.95% voted to leave. Of the electorate it was only 37.44%

[Dinivan]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	BBC is very pro E.U. Who cares on a per capita basis, Other than to make a point? So UK gets a discount based on economies of scale. The majority of the electorate thought it's better to leave. A large proportion of the population don't contribute a net €80 the the exchequer.

You haven't answered my question.

But now that you ask, who cares? ehrm.... everyone? that's probably the most accurate measure of the cost/benefit to a country.

Here's the source of the figures used by the BBC, from the European Union. Net contribution by member state, per capita, 2017.



Do you want now to explain what your figures represent, and what the source is?

Anyhoo, if what you complain about is the ratio between benefit to expenditure, you may better direct your anger to the UK government's own-making HS2 disaster.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	bowlie
	Absolute rubbish. Of the British Population (64.6 million on the day) just 26.95% voted to leave. Of the electorate it was only 37.44%

Only the electorate who bother to express an opinion count.
Residence in the UK does not give entitlement to vote & neither is residence a requirement to vote so your no's are meaningless.
More people voted at the referendum than at any previous vote in the UK, turnout was higher than normal.

[Troublawesome]

You seriously want to interpret 51.9% as majority? 2 out of 4 countries of the Kingdom were against. Wales was only shown as Leave because of the English voters living there in retirement.

A change of that magnitude should have required a super majority.

The lies, the Camrbidge Analytica scandal, the bus, the racism, the promises of immediate free trade deals, the censorship of Parliament via devious tactics...these do not worry you? That you can freely lie to people and get away with it...hell even become the PM?

Unbelievable. Even if you want Brexit, it shouldn't be at all costs.

In Switzerland the campaign for the marriage penalty was using wrong facts and the vote was cancelled and will be redone. That's what should have happened with Brexit too.

Now that the truth is out there, have a referendum between the 1 and only Deal available and Remain. If you win, it should be enforced from next day and leave the EU like a gentleman.

Amazingly, all the types of 'fraud' committed during the Campaign have been confirmed as illegal and against our Laws by the independent Electoral Commission. This would normally result in the Referendum results being annuled, especially with such a tiny majority. Here comes the irony and worse- as by UK Sovereign Laws (nought to do with EU) - a Referendum is, and can only ever be- advisory. Cameron had no right whatsoever to promise anything else - and to trump the Law. The Electoral Commission therefore cannot cancel the vote, as it was not valid. as said, only advisory.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:
	Amazingly, all the types of 'fraud' committed during the Campaign have been confirmed as illegal and against our Laws by the independent Electoral Commission. This would normally result in the Referendum results being annuled, especially with such a tiny majority. Here comes the irony and worse- as by UK Sovereign Laws (nought to do with EU) - a Referendum is, and can only ever be- advisory. Cameron had no right whatsoever to promise anything else - and to trump the Law. The Electoral Commission therefore cannot cancel the vote, as it was not valid. as said, only advisory.

Of course Cameron could promise to implement the result. Just as he could have promised that he would ignore the result.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	Of course Cameron could promise to implement the result. Just as he could have promised that he would ignore the result.

Indeed Labour also agreed to implement the result. Cant wait for a General election.

I am not a Labour supporter - like many- I feel currently politically homeless.

As said, the situation with the Electoral Commission is just beyond the beyond.

Be careful what you wish for.

No Deal from EU

+

No Deal from USA - Trump is not in a position to give us one- he needs approval of those who believe they must not betray Ireland and the GFA.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	I am not a Labour supporter - like many- I feel currently politically homeless. As said, the situation with the Electoral Commission is just beyond the beyond. Be careful what you wish for. No Deal from EU + No Deal from USA - Trump is not in a position to give us one- he needs approval of those who believe they must not betray Ireland and the GFA.

No need for a deal with the USA, it's the biggest country we already trade with

We buy more from the EU than we sell to the EU, so on balance it's of greater interest for the EU to give us a deal, however we must NOT be in the single market under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, it's far too restrictive & poor value for the UK.

[John William]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	No need for a deal with the USA, it's the biggest country we already trade with We buy more from the EU than we sell to the EU, so on balance it's of greater interest for the EU to give us a deal, however we must NOT be in the single market under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, it's far too restrictive & poor value for the UK.

Yes no doubt those Brexits who live in cloud cuckoo land about the UK's Special Relationship with America are waking up to reality
this week, that the Special Relationship is very much one sided, namely when it suits the Americans.

Now the families of American diplomats in the UK are getting carte blanch Diplomatic Immunity to avoid serious traffic offences.

I have no doubt that any UK - USA trade deal orchestrated by Donald Trump will have 'America first' written all over it.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Only the electorate who bother to express an opinion count. Residence in the UK does not give entitlement to vote & neither is residence a requirement to vote so your no's are meaningless. More people voted at the referendum than at any previous vote in the UK, turnout was higher than normal.

Yes, but you said ‘A majority of the electorate voted to leave’ which is absolute rubbish. A majority did not vote to leave. Not even close.