The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Blueangel]

What is "The full sitting political class"?

[NotAllThere]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	This is the section which sets out what Boris must send, "(4)The Prime Minister must seek to obtain from the European Council an extension of the period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union ending at 11.00pm on 31 October 2019 by sending to the President of the European Council a letter in the form set out in the Schedule to this Act requesting an extension of that period to 11.00pm on 31 January 2020 in order to debate and pass a Bill to implement the agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, including provisions reflecting the outcome of inter-party talks as announced by the Prime Minister on 21 May 2019, and in particular the need for the United Kingdom to secure changes to the political declaration to reflect the outcome of those inter-party talks." It's not clear to me that this is possible, because there is no "agreement between the UK and the EU under Art50(2)." The commons themselves rejected the proposed agreement, and under house rules it cannot even be reintroduced in the current session. S.4 therefore presents Boris with an impossibility. The opposition seems to have overlooked is that you can’t enforce an order for the impossible (plenty of caselaw). Bye Bye EU

Quick, tell Boris. He needs to know to stop worrying.

Btw- new session starts Monday.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	More people voted at the referendum than at any previous vote in the UK

More people, but as a percentage of the electorate, no.
Turnout 72.2%.
With the exception of 1970 (72%) every general election from 1945-1992 exceed the referendum turnout.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Sky
	People certainly did vote to leave, but: 1) only a certain % of the population voted 2) they didn’t vote for a «no deal» and which corresponds to a large part of this online conversation 3) nobody intended to have a whole country fall off a cliff with a «no deal» in a potentially desperate situation which would leave the common man and his family vulnerable

To answer your points Sky:

1) The referendum was won on the rules on which it was fought. Complaining that only a certain percentage of the population voted is like Germany asking for the 66 World Cup Final to be replayed because goal line technology has since come into use.
2) You're right, people didn't vote for "no deal". As a Brexiteer I certainly didn't vote for no deal, however I accept that the deal that was negotiated by Mrs May wasn't a very good one. I still want a deal, but am willing to accept no deal if a good deal is not achievable. This is what was promised in the Conservative Manifesto after all. I believe the vast majority of Brexiteers also feel the same way.
3) The "Falling off a Cliff" scenario has been overstated in my opinion. There will certainly be level of disruption in the event of no deal, but nothing like what has been predicted by the Remain side of the argument. I think this is why many Remainers are so desperate to frustrate the UK leaving the EU, because they know once the UK does leave, many of these doomsday predictions will be proven to be false. I also believe this is one of the main reasons that David Cameron had to resign the morning after the referendum vote was held - he knew he could never be trusted again having told so many lies about what would happen directly upon the country voting to leave.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Whilst British lamb and beef producers lose a substantial segment of their market? You really are trolling with that comment.

Not at all, not everybody wants to eat frozen food, plenty of people will pay a premium for fresh lamb.

[keyboardandmouse]

I think Boris Johnson will just ignore the rulings about he must ask for an extension. I just think he wont do it. there is the theoretical of what might happen, then the actual. If he ignores the law until November 1st the UK is out. its only just over 10 days from that time he is meant to ask for an extension.

I think in November there will be civil unrest.

[Fish Paste]

	Quote:	keyboardandmouse
	I think in November there will be civil unrest.

Project Fear.

The reason we are in such crap over Brexit is because the famous article 50 is so badly written. Nobody ever imagined anybody would want to leave the wondrous EU after creation, so only 2 lines were devoted to the possibility of leaving.


The leave with a badly written deal is doing exactly the same as before; we need and should learn from past mistakes.


Leaving with no deal is no ideal but far better than leaving with a crap deal which is on the table at present, with the final say for leaving firmly in the hands of one of the signatories only.


Even with no deal, once the dust has settled and people have come a little more to their senses, deals and arrangements will undoubtedly be found. The EU needs the UK as the UK needs the EU, it's a simple as that !



As once somebody famously said, "Shit or get off te pot" and it is exactly that position Britain in in today, time for talk is finished, Britain needs to act decisively and within the allocated time.


Talking about extensions and then sabotaging the EU working is childish as best and will serve nothing apart from further animosity.

[keyboardandmouse]

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	Project Fear.

no sorry I dont mean pro leave or remain, I think one side will be annoyed either way. If the UK stays in, Leave will go nuts and I think there will be demo's, sit-in's and wotnot.

If they leave with no deal, then Remain people will feel they have been legally cheated and they would do the same.

Maybe civil unrest is a bit dramatic. Lets say Civil British Style mumbled complaints.

[NotAllThere]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Not at all, not everybody wants to eat frozen food, plenty of people will pay a premium for fresh lamb.

But the people of the UK will be too poor to buy. ™ProjectFear

[Fish Paste]

	Quote:	keyboardandmouse
	Maybe civil unrest is a bit dramatic. Lets say Civil British Style mumbled complaints.

That's more like it.
As you say, one side will probably demonstrate, but for all the vitriol, I don't think it will spill over into actual French style riots.


My money now is on a 2 year extension, by the end of which the UK will have reversed the referendum/revoked A.50


Seeing is believing however.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	3) The "Falling off a Cliff" scenario has been overstated in my opinion. There will certainly be level of disruption in the event of no deal, but nothing like what has been predicted by the Remain side of the argument. I think this is why many Remainers are so desperate to frustrate the UK leaving the EU, because they know once the UK does leave, many of these doomsday predictions will be proven to be false.

UK economic outlook in four Brexit scenarios
https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14421

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	My money now is on a 2 year extension

Why? The horse will not be resurrected from death, no matter how long you extend.

[Spinal]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	UK economic outlook in four Brexit scenarios https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14421

So what you're saying is that for everyone who has student loans in the UK, a no-deal brexit means that 2020 is a good year to repay those loans? Here's hoping to a further drop in the GBP then!

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	keyboardandmouse
	Maybe civil unrest is a bit dramatic. Lets say Civil British Style mumbled complaints.

I keep reading 'civil unrest', 'civil war' 'riots' and 'revolution' on social media, usually put about by very obvious bots who have no idea what British people are like and, in one hilarious example, absolutely no idea where Brum is or what a Brummie is.

November is cold, dark and often raining. Most adults will be working all the overtime they can to save up for Christmas and spending their weekends doing Christmas shopping. Weekend riots will be thwarted by 'Strictly' and "X Factor - The Celebrities'. That leaves you with the football hooligan element who famously can't get out of Liverpool Lime Street Station, and the vast majority of decent leave voters would never stand shoulder to shoulder with them. Also, there will most likely be a GE looming.

My one caveat is 5th November. If ever the timing of an annual event was inopportune, this year is it.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Spinal
	So what you're saying is that for everyone who has student loans in the UK, a no-deal brexit means that 2020 is a good year to repay those loans? Here's hoping to a further drop in the GBP then!

I would never say that. I'd always direct that enquiry to this... https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/st...t-loans-repay/

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Not at all, not everybody wants to eat frozen food, plenty of people will pay a premium for fresh lamb.

If they can afford it. Many cannot.

	Quote:
	The reason we are in such crap over Brexit is because the famous article 50 is so badly written. Nobody ever imagined anybody would want to leave the wondrous EU after creation, so only 2 lines were devoted to the possibility of leaving.

5 clauses and about 10 lines actually (depending on screen width). Fairly concise by treaty legalese standards but imo contains everything it needs to.

It is pretty clear that the future relationship is something that has to be individually negotiated so what more is there to include? Not the fault of the treaty that the UK side has no idea what it actually wants.

[Blueangel]

For anyone who hasn't read it, a fair number of political journos are touting this as a scoop and hinting that the text has Cummings' writing style all over it. I wonder...

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/1...-negotiations/

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Troublawesome
	In Switzerland the campaign for the marriage penalty was using wrong facts and the vote was cancelled and will be redone. That's what should have happened with Brexit too.

Nope. That figure came from the government, which is supposed to be unbiased. Campaigns don't need to use facts, they can use any fancy numbers they please.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	If they can afford it. Many cannot.

However the poorer people will be able to buy their frozen New Zealand lamb cheaper than today after a hard BREXIT, same for clothes. Clearly they knew what they were voting for.