The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	You’re right, legally binding is the wrong wording. What I would like to see however is an expansion of the Recall of MPs Act, so that constituents may recall their MP if they believe they are not acting upon the mandate they were elected. This way they really would be answerable to the consituentes they represent, and we would avoid the intolerable situation there is now whereby 36% of Lib Dem MPs were not elected to that Party.

It would be an intolerable process. Would you propose a vote by the whole constituency or allow a small local group, the constituency party, to recall when such a small group can easily be taken over by extremists.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	In that case why have Political Parties then? It would be a better system if you elected the person but in reality it doesn’t work like that. How do you think the likes of Jared O’Mara became an MP? Regardless, the point remains that you should have the right to recall if enough constituents believe their interests are not being represented.

Consequentially that would also mean retroactive withdrawal of power, which would invalidate all decisions taken regardless of all the votes' results because it's nonetheless impossible to know how things would have turned out had the change been in effect then.

As a consequence all governmental and parliamentarian changes and adaptations would become impossible and immediately come to a complete standstill. Because everybody would become hostage to everybody else's threat even if it were only implicit.

[autopoiesis]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	For as many as have died and old-age years "lost", roughly the same number have been gained by the younger people. In fact with an ageing population (assuming that the average age does increase each year, as happens virtually everywhere in the western world) the longer you wait the bigger the weight of the elderly.

Hmm, not as simple as that: population is generally ageing because of the boomer bump (most populous slices of population are those aged ~40-50 now) and due to increased life expectancy. My point is that Remain/Leave votes are unevenly distributed across the age spectrum, so no like-for-like replacement by the youth of the departing old folk.


That is, given two piles of ballot papers:
Leave 17,410,742
Remain 16,141,241



If you remove papers from Leave faster than Remain, you'll hit 50:50 at some point, the question is: when?




"Compared to middle-aged respondents, the tendency to support Leave is substantially lower by 12.3% for younger cohorts up to the age of 30 and notably higher by 9.1% for individuals aged 60 or above."


Source: Who voted for Brexit? Individual and regional data combined


Not sure how to interpret the 9.1%, but (rounding up to 10% for simplicity) I'm assuming that for every 100 over-60s that kick the bucket, subtract 55 from Leave, and 45 from Remain (actually 39.6, and 32.4 respectively, to reflect the 72% turnout).


A back-of-the-envelope calculation (using 2010 age distribution/census data from Wikipedia) suggests that recounting only the 2016 ballot papers every year, but discounting The Votes of The Then-Dead*, the result would flip to Remain some time between 2029 and 2035, depending on mortality rates (I assumed 5-7% per year, evenly distributed among the >60s).


That's without any new voters. Assuming - reasonably, I think - that the +12.3% Remain tendency documented in voters under 30 is also present in those under 18 in 2016, that 50:50 date would be brought forward significantly if their voice was also considered - possibly to less than a decade from now.


We could still be negotiation bilateral agreements long after the majority of the then-living population didn't want to leave in the first place!



Anyway, it's just a fun thought experiment, and I'm sure my calculations are full of errors. Learned input/comments/corrections from proper statisticians very welcome!


Cheers,
auto



*if expats don't get a voice, The Dead shouldn't!

[marton]

	Quote:	autopoiesis
	Hmm, not as simple as that: population is generally ageing because of the boomer bump (most populous slices of population are those aged ~40-50 now) and due to increased life expectancy. My point is that Remain/Leave votes are unevenly distributed across the age spectrum, so no like-for-like replacement by the youth of the departing old folk. That is, given two piles of ballot papers: Leave 17,410,742 Remain 16,141,241 If you remove papers from Leave faster than Remain, you'll hit 50:50 at some point, the question is: when? "Compared to middle-aged respondents, the tendency to support Leave is substantially lower by 12.3% for younger cohorts up to the age of 30 and notably higher by 9.1% for individuals aged 60 or above." Source: Who voted for Brexit? Individual and regional data combined Not sure how to interpret the 9.1%, but (rounding up to 10% for simplicity) I'm assuming that for every 100 over-60s that kick the bucket, subtract 55 from Leave, and 45 from Remain (actually 39.6, and 32.4 respectively, to reflect the 72% turnout). A back-of-the-envelope calculation (using 2010 age distribution/census data from Wikipedia) suggests that recounting only the 2016 ballot papers every year, but discounting The Votes of The Then-Dead*, the result would flip to Remain some time between 2029 and 2035, depending on mortality rates (I assumed 5-7% per year, evenly distributed among the >60s). That's without any new voters. Assuming - reasonably, I think - that the +12.3% Remain tendency documented in voters under 30 is also present in those under 18 in 2016, that 50:50 date would be brought forward significantly if their voice was also considered - possibly to less than a decade from now. We could still be negotiation bilateral agreements long after the majority of the then-living population didn't want to leave in the first place! Anyway, it's just a fun thought experiment, and I'm sure my calculations are full of errors. Learned input/comments/corrections from proper statisticians very welcome! Cheers, auto *if expats don't get a voice, The Dead shouldn't!

Mostly agree, BTW,
Baby boomers were born between 1944 and 1964. They're currently between 55-75 years old
Gen X: Gen X was born between 1965 - 1979 and are currently between 40-54 years old

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	autopoiesis
	If you remove papers from Leave faster than Remain, you'll hit 50:50 at some point, the question is: when?

Exactly, if.
You're saying the overweight of Leave is a consequence of (or heavily influenced by) birth year, I'm saying it's a question of voter age.

In most democracies (or a form of state close to that) the older the cohort the more they are conserative and reactionary, a tendency that persists over time. If this weren't a question of age the voters would keep getting more progressive - well, they don't.

That aside, you need to factor in voter age as well because turnout increases with voter age. As well a tendency that persists over time.

[autopoiesis]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Exactly, if. You're saying the overweight of Leave is a consequence of (or heavily influenced by) birth year, I'm saying it's a question of voter age. In most democracies (or a form of state close to that) the older the cohort the more they are conserative and reactionary, a tendency that persists over time. If this weren't a question of age the voters would keep getting more progressive - well, they don't. That aside, you need to factor in voter age as well because turnout increases with voter age. As well a tendency that persists over time.

Thanks Urs, good points, well made. I did also hear that there was a slight counter-tendency in the very oldest of voters, ie people who had lived as adults through, and even fought in, WW2 were slightly less likely to vote Leave than those between (say) 55-80, although perhaps not to 50:50, and I don't have evidence/ref for this to hand.



To further undermine my own case (from study I cited):


"We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internet, receiving benefits, adverse health and low life satisfaction."



Government policies seem to be reducing people's education, health and life satisfaction, it could well be that what I imagine from nearly 20 years an expat to be boundless youthful europhilia degrades into separatism and isolationism so fast that we'd be veering more to Leave, if the youth's vote were included...



Like I said, intended to be a fun thought experiment!


Cheers,
auto

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	autopoiesis
	Thanks Urs, good points, well made. I did also hear that there was a slight counter-tendency in the very oldest of voters, ie people who had lived as adults through, and even fought in, WW2 were slightly less likely to vote Leave than those between (say) 55-80, although perhaps not to 50:50, and I don't have evidence/ref for this to hand.

The closest figure that could fit what you're looking for is 178,458. That's the number of men living in Britain who were old enough to have legally fought in WWII, and even that has several factors not taken into account, which would reduce the number even further. All in all, the result is a very small subject group.

1. To have legally fought in WWII, British men would have been 89+yrs old at the time of the referendum, and 90+ in the linked stats below.
2. The figure I'm offering is from a government stats snapshot covering mid 2016-mid 2017.
3. This figure includes men who were immigrants to the UK later than 1945.
4. This figure includes men who were in reserved occupations during WWII.
5. This figure includes men who may be suffering a degenerative condition, such as alzheimer's or dementia.
6. As this figure is taken from mid-2017, we need to factor in deaths within the subject group between 23 June 2016 and the date the stats collection ended.

Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...years-and-over

	Quote:	autopoiesis
	"We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internet, receiving benefits, adverse health and low life satisfaction."

This is coming closer to what I would believe to be the case and/or deciding motivations, but again, there are marked exceptions. Slough is a very good case in point.

Slough has a very high percentage of 1st, 2nd and 3rd generation Asian immigrants, and in that particular community there was a resentment towards EU immigrants who were able to migrate to the UK without having to go through the arduous family reunification process that Asians were subject to.

An additional factor was that British residents with a Commonwealth nationality were able to vote in the referendum whilst those with an EU nationality were excluded, thus giving a marked advantage to migrants from Commonwealth background.
Source: Eligibility to vote
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_U...hip_referendum

I would summise that as the referendum votes were secret, and uniquely, no exit polls were performed (because there was no precedent to measure the results against, e.g. no swing factor) we will never know the true demographics involved and any stats claimed are, inevitably, far more subjective than those for a regular general election. The referendum 'stats' don't hold the same 'weight' and would only gain credence with future/further referendums.

One last thing, the timing of the referendum meant that many of the student population would have returned home at the end of the academic year, so their voting ability, whether it be physical or postal, would have been impacted upon because their ballot cards would have been sent to addresses where they were no longer resident. The NUS UK referenced this recently when the PM was asking for an October GE as that would have also not allowed students enough time to change the address for their ballot cards to be sent to. That's a crucial voter demographic being surreptitiously excluded from the political process.

[justpassingby]

These statistics are just a snapshot of time.

Remember the supposed oldies who voted leave were young in the sixties. Would they have been conservative or leave voters then?

Who’s to say the supposed young remain voters of today won‘t become leave voters as they age?

It’s statistics coming from opinion poles and you know how much you can trust both!!!

[marton]

Just got a nice letter from UK State Pension that after Brexit they will only pay annual increases in State Pension for 3 years; this applies to EEA countries and Switzerland and even in the event of no deal.

Soon be a good time to buy a house in Spain

[henk]

just un from John le Carre

"His attitude to Brexit is pungently expressed in the new novel. “It is my considered opinion,” one of the characters declares to Nat, “that for Britain and Europe, and for liberal democracy across the entire world as a whole, Britain’s departure from the European Union in the time of Donald Trump, and Britain’s consequent unqualified dependence on the United States in an era when the US is heading straight down the road to institutional racism and neo-fascism, is an unmitigated cluster bar none.”

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	henk
	just un from John le Carre "His attitude to Brexit is pungently expressed in the new novel. “It is my considered opinion,” one of the characters declares to Nat, “that for Britain and Europe, and for liberal democracy across the entire world as a whole, Britain’s departure from the European Union in the time of Donald Trump, and Britain’s consequent unqualified dependence on the United States in an era when the US is heading straight down the road to institutional racism and neo-fascism, is an unmitigated cluster bar none.”

One of the most contemptuous tactics adopted by Remain is this consistently linking the Brexit vote and Brexiteers to racism. It is the total disregard for the rise in racism across the European continent that makes it more remarkable. Two Jews were shot in Halle in Germany this week. Populists parties are rising across the whole of the EU and were sharing power in both Italy and Austria until recently. There is an election in Poland coming up with will likely result in more populists gaining power.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	One of the most contemptuous tactics adopted by Remain is this consistently linking the Brexit vote and Brexiteers to racism. It is the total disregard for the rise in racism across the European continent that makes it more remarkable. Two Jews were shot in Halle in Germany this week. Populists parties are rising across the whole of the EU and were sharing power in both Italy and Austria until recently. There is an election in Poland coming up with will likely result in more populists gaining power.

You post seems to contradict itself?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	You post seems to contradict itself?

As I understand him he says that, if Brexit were linked to or caused by racism or xenophobia, similar stuff (more xxx-exits) should happen all over the continent. It doesn't hence the linking is false.

Where's the contradiction?

[Troublawesome]

I think the EU is being very clever, they'll overplay this until last minute to show they really did everything and then blame it all on Bojo for not budging. It will be a brilliant tactic to force his hand on no deal if that's what he really wants.

Or throw the towel in and agree to May's deal.

I do not think the chance of a deal has gone up, just some games being played to save face from both sides.

Happy to be proven wrong and see a deal happen and this nightmare to end.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	Just got a nice letter from UK State Pension that after Brexit they will only pay annual increases in State Pension for 3 years; this applies to EEA countries and Switzerland and even in the event of no deal.

The UK/Ireland pay as you go system is unsustainable and both will have to be reformed in the next decade in any case... so the bad news on that front is only just beginning....

	Quote:	Urs Max
	As I understand him he says that, if Brexit were linked to or caused by racism or xenophobia, similar stuff (more xxx-exits) should happen all over the continent. It doesn't hence the linking is false. Where's the contradiction?

Dunno. I didn't read it that way. If so, it's a hell of an assumption that every member state would have the same mindset. Brexit is about the UK and the reasons to vote leave there would probably differ from other member states.

To me it sounded more like "Brexit wasn't anything to do with xenophobia and here are many xenophobic examples to prove that". Just didn't make sense but, if anything about Brexit made sense it would probably be done and dusted by now.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	Just got a nice letter from UK State Pension that after Brexit they will only pay annual increases in State Pension for 3 years; this applies to EEA countries and Switzerland and even in the event of no deal. Soon be a good time to buy a house in Spain

They still pay your Swiss health insurance with a 300 franchise, that must be worth another 5k a year.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	One of the most contemptuous tactics adopted by Remain is this consistently linking the Brexit vote and Brexiteers to racism. It is the total disregard for the rise in racism across the European continent that makes it more remarkable. Two Jews were shot in Halle in Germany this week. Populists parties are rising across the whole of the EU and were sharing power in both Italy and Austria until recently. There is an election in Poland coming up with will likely result in more populists gaining power.

One of the most contemptuous tactics adopted by Leave.EU is behaving like a bunch of racists. They've had to publically apologise and remove two posts this week alone. If they don't want to be seen that way, then don't behave that way. Common sense.

It might have escaped your notice, but right wing populism is on the wane. The recent election results in Austria are just one example of that, but the one which filled my heart with joy was the news that Golden Dawn closed down their Athens office because they no longer have the support or funding to continue. http://www.ekathimerini.com/244576/a...t-of-athens-hq

Times change. People change. That's why there should be a second referendum.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Times change. People change. That's why there should be a second referendum.

And a third. And a fourth.... as times and people keep changing.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	And a third. And a fourth.... as times and people keep changing.

Maybe in 10yrs time there will be another. Maybe in 20yrs time... Who knows! It's always an option as society evolves.