The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Odile]

So maybe this is turning out to have been just a silly game that went wrong. Gove and Boris just wanted to teach the EU a lesson... and never in a month, decade or century of Sundays, did they think they would win- just get enough for BREXIT to give a little scare and force better deals:

A silver lining from the Guardian's comments section:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

[marton]

Thanks Odile

We seem to be in a strange time at the moment!

My expectation was that the "Leavers" would be wildly celebrating, there would be a lot of pressure to quickly move into the brave new world outside the EU.

Instead it is relatively quiet, the influential Leave voices are saying things like; "go slow", "informal negotiations first", " no need to plunge into tabling article 50 now".

I did support Remain but the vote is over so let us get on with leaving; I do not want uncertainty to continue.

[Odile]

This young friend of a friend says it so well- just how I feel. In this household, 2 X 65 + old biddies voted with the young ones and are proud to have done so. Richdog, if you look at stats of the vote, your commen about 'old biddies' stuck in the past applies to those who voted in 'because we beat the Gerries in the war' and 'because we want to get rid of them Muslims'- etc:

Don't call us 'bad losers'. Not today. Because this hurts.

Don't call us bad losers when we have bad winners. Nigel Farage, who said this morning 'We won it without a shot being fired', a mere week after Jo Cox was shot on Farage's most controversial day of the campaign.

Don't call us bad losers when you have Boris Johnson suddenly saying there is 'no rush' to leave the EU, when it was so important to him a day ago. (Yet David Cameron's resignation still seems important to him. Hmmm.)

Don't call us bad losers when you have given fuel to the far right across the continent. Marine Le Penn now has a union jack as her profile pic. We are the pride of fascists everywhere.

(I don't see how expressing our intense dismay on Facebook is equivalent to what many of us feel will result in the fracturing of Europe, the crashing of the economy, an increase in xenophobia and division, and all that comes with that.)

Don't call us bad losers when we have genuine concerns that many of the people who most wanted this foul-named thing called a Brexit - the hurt, the disenfranchised, the unemployed, the vulnerable - have been conned into thinking Farage and Johnson are the anti-establishment voice of the people. (Spoiler alert: they're the voice of power, of money, of self-interest, of themselves.)

Don't call us bad losers. Just call us very worried indeed.,


He forgot:

Don't call us bad losers because we believed BOJO and Farage when they promised the 350 mio to the EU would go to the NHS- which was detracted asap they won.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Stoker177
	In three years of living here with monthly travels by car back to the UK....I've never been asked for i.d. at the Swiss border.....I usually return late or early hours so maybe the guards like an early night

Switzerland is in Schengen, so no passport control at it's border, you can arrive by plane & still not show a passport if you came from a Schengen country.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	"A Prime Minister resigned. The £ plummeted. The FTSE 100 lost significant ground. But then the £ rallied past February levels, and the FTSE closed on a weekly high: 2.4% up on last Friday, its best performance in 4 months. President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all and that our 'special relationship' was still strong. The French President confirmed the Le Touquet agreement would stay in place. The President of the European Commission stated Brexit negations would be 'orderly' and stressed the UK would continue to be a 'close partner' of the EU. A big bank denied reports it would shift 2,000 staff overseas. The CBI, vehemently anti-Brexit during the referendum campaign, stated British business was resilient and would adapt. Several countries outside the EU stated they wished to begin bi-lateral trade talks with the UK immediately. If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime. Not a bad first day of freedom." --Suzanne Evans UKIP

"Several countries outside the EU stated they wished to begin bi-lateral trade talks with the UK immediately." Anybody know which countries?

"President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all"

The White House has restated its position that Britain would be at the back of the queue when it comes to making trade deals with the US, in the wake of the Brexit vote.


UKIP still lying

Source

and

Source

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	The White House has restated its position that Britain would be at the back of the queue when it comes to making trade deals with the US, in the wake of the Brexit vote.

So behind the EU which does not have a trade deal...... Business as usual nothing important here.

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	Odile
	So maybe this is turning out to have been just a silly game that went wrong. Gove and Boris just wanted to teach the EU a lesson... and never in a month, decade or century of Sundays, did they think they would win- just get enough for BREXIT to give a little scare and force better deals:

Cameron pretended to take aim at his own foot in the hopes that the EU would give him a free pair of safety shoes, but the gun went off. The bullet passed through Cameron and Boris's heads, then somehow hit Farage's chair leg and Corbyn fell over trying to get out of the way?


Was Nicola Sturgeon the second shooter or is she Lyndon B Johnson?

[marton]

Please discuss!

People seem to think it's just the UK and the EU but it isn't, it's the UK and the world.
Already people are talking that the UK should lose it's permanent place on the UN Security Council. Also in the WTO and possibly NATO.
They are not going to throw us out of the UN, WTO or NATO just remove us from "the top table" and replace us with somebody else.
The EU is the biggest trading block in the world, Russia, China and the US have expressed an interest in having an EU representative sit on the Security Council in our place.

[marton]

	Quote:	marton
	"President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all" The White House has restated its position that Britain would be at the back of the queue when it comes to making trade deals with the US, in the wake of the Brexit vote. UKIP still lying Source and Source

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	So behind the EU which does not have a trade deal...... Business as usual nothing important here.

Sadly we have got so used to politicians telling bare faced lies that nobody thinks it is worth a comment anymore!

Instead of listening to a not very smart Juncker telling the UK to hurry up and leave, to get rid, we have to remember that the UK and Europe had always had a fantastic close relationship. The control of Brussels is the problem and this is what the UK has rightly said no to.

The new relationship and exit deals have to be negotiated. This will take time, no question - as Merkel has already acknowledged. The UK is entitled to by EU law to have time and time is what is needed for all concerned.

Juncker purely desires the UK to sod off, as if he can unhook the UK from Europe and let us drift off into the Atlantic never to be seen again and for him to return to ruling Europe with tighter and tighter control. Someone needs to tell him that Europe doesn't belong to him, doesn't belong to the ruling house of Brussels - it belongs to all of us, the democratic people of Europe.. The UK and Europe will continue to be friends and have a solid good working relationship long after the Brussel power house is gone. Merkel and Hollande know this too.

Stop allowing Juncker and his ilk to colour your thinking with his petulant stroppy childish ways. His is an incredibly poor weak skilled diplomat and is completely out of his depth here. Negotiations now need to be positive and calm to get the job done correctly.

Respect Britain and allow it the time it needs to settle down.

No to Brussels. Yes to Europe.

[fatmanfilms]

Boeing picks Britain for new European headquarters after the BREXIT vote.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/m...dquarters.html

[AbFab]

[marton]

	Quote:	Swisstree
	Instead of listening to a not very smart Juncker telling the UK to hurry up and leave, to get rid, we have to remember that the UK and Europe had always had a fantastic close relationship. The control of Brussels is the problem and this is what the UK has rightly said no to. The new relationship and exit deals have to be negotiated. This will take time, no question - as Merkel has already acknowledged. The UK is entitled to by EU law to have time and time is what is needed for all concerned. Juncker purely desires the UK to sod off, as if he can unhook the UK from Europe and let us drift off into the Atlantic never to be seen again and for him to return to ruling Europe with tighter and tighter control. Someone needs to tell him that Europe doesn't belong to him, doesn't belong to the ruling house of Brussels - it belongs to all of us, the democratic people of Europe.. The UK and Europe will continue to be friends and have a solid good working relationship long after the Brussel power house is gone. Merkel and Hollande know this too. Stop allowing Juncker and his ilk to colour your thinking with his petulant stroppy childish ways. His is an incredibly poor weak skilled diplomat and is completely out of his depth here. Negotiations now need to be positive and calm to get the job done correctly. Respect Britain and allow it the time it needs to settle down. No to Brussels. Yes to Europe.

The first summit of EU leaders with no British representation will be held on Wednesday

The clock is ticking.

[Odile]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Switzerland is in Schengen, so no passport control at it's border, you can arrive by plane & still not show a passport if you came from a Schengen country.

The UK is in Schengen- since when???

Anyhow, say that to your friendly custom's officer- at the border - or wherever up to 30km from the border where they are allowed to check- papers, car, goods,etc.

Since this year, borders are often un-manned and they have swapped tactics. They now have check posts all over the countryside, on small minor roads, 24/7 and through the night- it's much more effective apparently.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Boeing picks Britain for new European headquarters after the BREXIT vote. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/m...dquarters.html

Um, that announcement was in March and your link is also dated March

"after the BREXIT vote"!!

So now you have joined the other leavers in outright lying! So sad

[Tasebo]

	Quote:	marton
	Please discuss! People seem to think it's just the UK and the EU but it isn't, it's the UK and the world. Already people are talking that the UK should lose it's permanent place on the UN Security Council. Also in the WTO and possibly NATO. They are not going to throw us out of the UN, WTO or NATO just remove us from "the top table" and replace us with somebody else. The EU is the biggest trading block in the world, Russia, China and the US have expressed an interest in having an EU representative sit on the Security Council in our place.

It is the UK and the world - that is the fact that seems to have escaped all those who eagerly figure out how they can "win" from Brexit, cashing in now on the shallow consumerist behaviours and thinking that have contributed to the situation that many of those who voted "leave", and those who couldn't vote, breed upon. Short-sighted, me me me ways of thinking.

For those in the UK who are truly down and out and feeling short-changed, in their situations one almost doesn't expect them to be able to maje a responsible choice. It is like a mental illness where the illness is the one talking, not the individual affected by depression or addiction etc. For those on the outside of the UK living their good life and throwing cheap stabs (if the international newspaper covers from yesterday are anything to go by) for the moment many are having a good laugh.

I've just glance at my Guardian inbox and the first two comments under the article concernng the Icelandic presidential election are petulant statements that reek of playground "na na na nah" behaviours. On a world stage we have descended into dangerous depths, where potential leadership does the same. People learn by example and like those who don't invite change. Trump, Farage, BJ, Åkesson in Sweden are NOT leading to a better place, but they are the type personalities that have the easiest time to gather followers.

So many of the migrants and refugees that seek a better life are having the first go at experiencing how supposedly democratic systems work. Regardless of where is the best place for them to settle, the developed nations of the West are not setting a very good example.

[JagWaugh]

Did anybody else notice this?


Tony Blair only just managed to stop himself from saying "**ed Up" and substituted "Curious" instead. (Sunday Politics on Beeb One @ appx 11:37)

[Chuff]

	Quote:	marton
	Um, that announcement was in March and your link is also dated March "after the BREXIT vote"!! So now you have joined the other leavers in outright lying! So sad

The point is they knew a Brexit referendum was happening and still chose Britain. Now the Brexit has happened they still choose Britain.

[idefix]

	Quote:	marton
	The first summit of EU leaders with no British representation will be held on Wednesday The clock is ticking.

It seems the EU wants UK out as quickly and as dirty as possible to serve as an example for other countries who might want to play the referendum idea.

I imagine there are ways for the UK to be out even without triggering A50.

While it's in UK best interest to stall and get the best deal out of the situation, I'm sure the EU will have something else in mind

Anyway, stop the whining, stiff upper lip and get out of that bureaucratic EU NOW, that's what the British people want.

[marton]

Top EU officials acted quickly Friday to reassure British staffers working in the main European institutions about how the Brexit vote would affect their job.

Juncker told EU staffers that according to EU rules “you are ‘Union officials.’ You work for Europe. You left your national ‘hats’ at the door when you joined this institution and that door is not closing on you now.” He promised to “support and help you in this difficult process.
Our staff regulations will be read and applied in a European spirit.”

I have not seen anybody in the EU promising to support Brits in the EU and Switzerland to keep their jobs

Source