The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Swissish
	“The third option that I would support is to stay in the European Union in order to fight tooth and nail against the anti-democratic institutions of the European Union.”

Yup, just about sums up the logic of Varoufakis. Stay in the EU to make it more democratic. Good luck with that.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Kosti
	So Brexit happens, and suddenly UK firms are outside the common market vs German firms inside, with possibly thousands of German firms at a trade advantage with respect to their UK competitors where selling stuff in the EU is concerned. The bankers in Frankfurt will probably lead the charge, with the City suddenly less able to offer financial services as before. .

Anyway, Germany sells heaps more stuff to the UK than the UK sells to Germany.

So it seems to me German firms should be more scared that British ones.

I have yet to hear a German CEO call out Merkel and tell her to stop being so obstinate.

[Kosti]

	Quote:	amogles
	Anyway, Germany sells heaps more stuff to the UK than the UK sells to Germany. So it seems to me German firms should be more scared that British ones. I have yet to hear a German CEO call out Merkel and tell her to stop being so obstinate.

Having made that argument, I am SURE you already knew that as a percentage of exports Germany -> UK is 6.9% of all German exports, and UK -> Germany is 10% of UK exports.

And this is if you take into account only UK <-> Germany trade. After Brexit, 45% of UK exports could be subject to the same EU market rules as, say for example, India is.

Sure, the UK could always impose tariff barriers and well and get into a trade war with the EU and see how that ends. But unless I have forgotten third grade math, its evident that the UK would get hit much harder.

So the reason why no German CEO is protesting to Merkel is, that even if 6.9% of German exports are affected, there is enough room to compensate for it by eating into the share of 45% of UK exports to the EU.

	Quote:	Kosti
	Having made that argument, I am SURE you already knew that as a percentage of exports Germany -> UK is 6.9% of all German exports, and UK -> Germany is 10% of UK exports. And this is if you take into account only UK <-> Germany trade. After Brexit, 45% of UK exports could be subject to the same EU market rules as, say for example, India is. Sure, the UK could always impose tariff barriers and well and get into a trade war with the EU and see how that ends. But unless I have forgotten third grade math, its evident that the UK would get hit much harder. So the reason why no German CEO is protesting to Merkel is, that even if 6.9% of German exports are affected, there is enough room to compensate for it by eating into the share of 45% of UK exports to the EU.

However the most likely scenario is that rather than causing harm to BOTH economies, they'd hastily negotiate a new trade deal as it would be the most sensible thing to do.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Kosti
	Having made that argument, I am SURE you already knew that as a percentage of exports Germany -> UK is 6.9% of all German exports, and UK -> Germany is 10% of UK exports. And this is if you take into account only UK <-> Germany trade. After Brexit, 45% of UK exports could be subject to the same EU market rules as, say for example, India is. Sure, the UK could always impose tariff barriers and well and get into a trade war with the EU and see how that ends. But unless I have forgotten third grade math, its evident that the UK would get hit much harder. So the reason why no German CEO is protesting to Merkel is, that even if 6.9% of German exports are affected, there is enough room to compensate for it by eating into the share of 45% of UK exports to the EU.

Germany is much more of an exporting nation. Very many jobs depend on export.

Britain is much less of an export nation, so even if a higher percentage of export jobs are at risk, the export sector is smaller overall.

Also, if you stop importing stuff, you're still going to need it so inland production will ramp up to compensate, meaning more job opportunities.

[starmir]

Is any one registering to vote? If you have left the UK less than 15 years ago, apparently you can register to vote. I am going to try...

https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

[Kosti]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	However the most likely scenario is that rather than causing harm to BOTH economies, they'd hastily negotiate a new trade deal as it would be the most sensible thing to do.

Yes, they would do that.

I am sure you don`t think that these negotiations would be all sweetness and light. As the smaller economy, the UK would have to make a whole host of concessions that it doesn't have to do now as a part of the common market.

I can easily imagine some developments that would make Boris Johnson`s hair even messier (next Tory PM, no?). For e.g.
- The Scots would be planning their next independence referendum, so goodbye North Sea energy leverage
- The City, with perhaps the largest financial levers and deepest links to the Tories, would be pushing hard to get ANY damn deal to try and preserve as much of their current market share.

[Kosti]

	Quote:	amogles
	Germany is much more of an exporting nation. Very many jobs depend on export. Britain is much less of an export nation, so even if a higher percentage of export jobs are at risk, the export sector is smaller overall. Also, if you stop importing stuff, you're still going to need it so inland production will ramp up to compensate, meaning more job opportunities.

Really?
Sounds like the exact same logic Putin rolled out after getting hit by sanctions after Crimea. The Russian economy must be doing great! Only, NOT.

Please bother to actually read my post. I am making the case, based on numbers, that German exports on the whole benefit from UK being thrown out of the common market. Any decrease in exports to the UK would be made up for by increased opportunities within the much larger EU economy, thanks to higher barriers for UK firms to operate in the EU.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Kosti
	Oh no, Germany certainly wont ignore the UK relationship to the common market. So Brexit happens, and suddenly UK firms are outside the common market vs German firms inside, with possibly thousands of German firms at a trade advantage with respect to their UK competitors where selling stuff in the EU is concerned. The bankers in Frankfurt will probably lead the charge, with the City suddenly less able to offer financial services as before. So yeah, certainly not to be ignored, but certainly to be screwed over for whatever advantages the local companies can get. Heck, the EU doesnt even ignore good ol`tiny brave CH, and as the CH business owner quoted in the article says, made him end up having to set up production facilities in the Netherlands to be competitive in the EU.

A lot of people seem to be equating the EU with the single market. If that were true, then I think there would be even little discussion of Brexit in the first place.

I would imagine the most likely exit scenario would have the UK remain in the single market or at least have some lesser form of free trade agreement.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	I would imagine the most likely exit scenario would have the UK remain in the single market or at least have some lesser form of free trade agreement.

Any trade agreement will require the UK to accept FMOP, contribution to the Stability Fund and compliance with EU market directives. There is no way the remain members will agree to anything else and this was already addressed at the recent two day Council meeting.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	Also, if you stop importing stuff, you're still going to need it so inland production will ramp up to compensate, meaning more job opportunities.

Really? I would expect that what you'll see is that imports from Common Wealth countries will increase. For example Irish agricultural products will be replaced by further imports from New Zealand and Australia and so on.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Any trade agreement will require the UK to accept FMOP, contribution to the Stability Fund and compliance with EU market directives.

I guess it depends on what form it takes in the end, but I agree that if the UK wishes to remain in the single market, it will have to continue to accept FMOP and other conditions which are a requirement of the single market just like any other member. I don't expect any favourable terms or exceptions in such a case.

[starmir]

Personally I am for kicking out the UK... we may pay in more that we get out (in terms of subsidies and CAP) but since we won't participate in Schengen, the Euro, and have so many other exceptions, plus we're contiously b!tching about Europe, what is the point.

I mean we've been in this for 40 years, and the tone is the same, we're not getting more euro-ie.

Go the Swiss, Norway way and leave the others build their europe.

[Kosti]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	I guess it depends on what form it takes in the end, but I agree that if the UK wishes to remain in the single market, it will have to continue to accept FMOP and other conditions which are a requirement of the single market just like any other member. I don't expect any favourable terms or exceptions in such a case.

Talk about much ado for nothing.

I believe Brexit is primarily motivated by the fear of immigration.
After all this, if FMOP still remains, immigration would be unaffected.
Those in favor of leaving the EU should admit this.

	Quote:	starmir
	Personally I am for kicking out the UK... we may pay in more that we get out (in terms of subsidies and CAP) but since we won't participate in Schengen, the Euro, and have so many other exceptions, plus we're contiously b!tching about Europe, what is the point. I mean we've been in this for 40 years, and the tone is the same, we're not getting more euro-ie. Go the Swiss, Norway way and leave the others build their europe.

I agree there, at the moment the UK is like a miserable brother-in-law at a family party. Turning up, complaining, taking all the best food from the buffet, not participating in all the games yet won't leave either. More so after the latest "deal". Looking from a European point of view, it is pretty embarrassing. Either all in or all out.

[starmir]

so what colour is our new passport going to be?

I still have an old black one knocking about somewhere, but I guess that is not PC any more... do we go for blue?

To help us choose here are all the colours of the passport world :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_passports

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Kosti
	Talk about much ado for nothing. I believe Brexit is primarily motivated by the fear of immigration. After all this, if FMOP still remains, immigration would be unaffected. Those in favor of leaving the EU should admit this.

I think FMOP is a red herring. I think the most likely scenarios would be that the UK would still have the same FMOP obligations, in fact all the obligations under acquis communautaire.

An alternative would be to push for a FTA with the EU - though I remain sceptical as to whether this would leave the UK in a better position than if it were in the single market. I think FTA is the position advocated by UKIP.

To be honest, the whole sorry Brexit issue just shows what a pigs ear the UK has made of the EU. It has totally failed to push through a liberalisation of the market for services which would be of great benefit to the UK (and would be unlikely to do so outside the single market) and that idiot Tony Blair to rub salt in the wound gave up part of the rebate and got nothing in return losing over £10bn just in the first few years. On top of that we agreed to QMV and lost veto powers. Were our politicians on drugs when they destroyed our power and negotiating position in the EU?

[Bussibaer]

As Britain agonises over whether to stay in or leave the EU, many UK voters are looking to Switzerland's example to help them make up their minds...

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...endum-35615604

[zurich99]

	Quote:	Bussibaer
	As Britain agonises over whether to stay in or leave the EU, many UK voters are looking to Switzerland's example to help them make up their minds... http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...endum-35615604

Im just not getting something here, maybe its my naivety or that I just dont like confrontation, but why is it Brussels get all the power?
Why do you have to belong to the 'club' to get the good trade deals? why do Brussels get to punish countries who did not want to sign up?

Seems to me (again not a money/trade/business person) that Brussels seems to big the big bully here, join the club, adhere to all the rules that we make or we will freeze you out and give you a raw deal?

I dont see much choice really, the UK has been moaning about the EU for years but I dont think they can do anything about it - stay in and suck it up, or leave and be punished. Not much of a choice really.

Does Brussels not question why there seems to be such unrest with some member counties?? would it not be better to address the issues and work something out? I would be surprised if its the UK that are the only ones with issues with it.

[zurich99]

ouch!

Taken from the Telegraph - Guy Verhofstadt, the leader of the liberal bloc who is an old-school believer in the United States of Europe and is allied to the Lib Dems, says

"I may not know the result of the referendum, but I am sure this will not reunite the Tories. Because it is now about personal ambitions of two men. A glorified cockfight. With Boris Johnson challenging David Cameron." He goes on: "It's "totally bonkers".
"It is pathetic for Britain. The Pound is rapidly falling. The unity of the UK is being threatened. And their American cousins say 'stop it', we will not make a trade deal with you outside the Union. The ‘special relationship’ between UK and the US is not so special any more. "
He warns there will be no new renegotiation after a "no" vote and that a vote to leave would "only help people like Vladimir Putin and Bashar Al-Assad".
"Those who stand to lose the most from this referendum are ordinary British citizens. They see their currency endangered, their country alienated from the US, their Great Britain transformed into nothing more than little England."