The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Swisstree
	I love the reasonable, we all have an opinion shite about folks who write false bollocks, and plenty of it..

This is the thing about t'internet, fringe ideas and falsehoods become disproportionately amplified.
I was listening to the 'On The House' podcast the other week where Dr. Phillip Lee was blaming a lot of the downturn in vaccinations in the UK with tv media claiming to present 'both sides of the debate'. He made the excellent point that, if a certain view is held by only 1% of the medical profession, then the only correct way to represent that view accurately would be to have a tv panel of 99 doctors who support vaccination debating 1 doctor who doesn't. Anything other than that gives more weight and validity to a fringe view.

[curley]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	This is the thing about t'internet, fringe ideas and falsehoods become disproportionately amplified. I was listening to the 'On The House' podcast the other week where Dr. Phillip Lee was blaming a lot of the downturn in vaccinations in the UK with tv media claiming to present 'both sides of the debate'. He made the excellent point that, if a certain view is held by only 1% of the medical profession, then the only correct way to represent that view accurately would be to have a tv panel of 99 doctors who support vaccination debating 1 doctor who doesn't. Anything other than that gives more weight and validity to a fringe view.

That presupposes that the more people believe something, the "righter" it is.
That is not the case and can be seen in history too. Take Galileo Galilei who dared to claim the planets circle the sun.

While majorities are a good thing for final decisions - as it says more people can live with a decision than not - they do not stand for a correct decision. It's just a way to move on (for the moment).

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	greenmount
	I know, sorry I'll be very quick: to talk in these terms of doom and gloom when Europe is one of the most innovative places in the world and you only have to look at human development indexes, education systems and so on.....and praise other places like India and China instead, wow. Not to mention freedom and peace. I think he's one of those trolls that we used to have right from the beginning when the Brexit thing started, but they're getting better and better these days. More subtle. But more ridiculous too.

I’m sure the citizens of the Western Roman Empire would also say they enjoyed freedom, education and peace right before the Visigoths came along and sacked Rome. The same could perhaps be said for the Inca Empire right before the Spanish landed on their shores. Freedom and peace (which I’ve at no point criticised btw) count for nothing in the face of external pressure.

I’ve also not “praised” China or India, it would be a terrible thing if Europe was ever to endure a regime such as China’s. I have only stayed the fact that they’ve until recently have enjoyed double digit growth whilst the EU has flatlined. If this growth continues and will be seen in other developing countries then the EU will be left behind.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	greenmount
	I think someone should have spelled it out for you, after all you must be one of those people who are against political correctness and all that stuff that certain conservatives invoke when they are being called out on the shit they talk. Stupid. There.

That’s really not a pleasant thing to say. You should really think twice before making accusations or throwing around insults.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	I’m sure the citizens of the Western Roman Empire would also say they enjoyed freedom, education and peace right before the Visigoths came along and sacked Rome. The same could perhaps be said for the Inca Empire right before the Spanish landed on their shores. Freedom and peace (which I’ve at no point criticised btw) count for nothing in the face of external pressure.

Brexiters seem to love to deal with the past when it aligns with their views but get awfully resistant when it's pointed out that more modern history shows what happens when close nations are fragmented and at odds with each other.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	I’ve also not “praised” China or India, it would be a terrible thing if Europe was ever to endure a regime such as China’s. I have only stayed the fact that they’ve until recently have enjoyed double digit growth whilst the EU has flatlined. If this growth continues and will be seen in other developing countries then the EU will be left behind.

Isn't the popular belief that China's growth is firstly misrepresented, and secondly, not sustainable?

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	You should really think twice before making accusations or throwing around insults.

Why should she when you don't?

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	I’m sure the citizens of the Western Roman Empire would also say they enjoyed freedom, education and peace right before the Visigoths came along and sacked Rome. The same could perhaps be said for the Inca Empire right before the Spanish landed on their shores. Freedom and peace (which I’ve at no point criticised btw) count for nothing in the face of external pressure. I’ve also not “praised” China or India, it would be a terrible thing if Europe was ever to endure a regime such as China’s. I have only stayed the fact that they’ve until recently have enjoyed double digit growth whilst the EU has flatlined. If this growth continues and will be seen in other developing countries then the EU will be left behind.

So you support the idea of a European army to protect the EU from the Visigoths and others?

It is easy for third world countries to achieve double-digit growth when they start from near zero, gets more difficult as their economy picks up. As an example, look at the declining auto market in China.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	That’s really not a pleasant thing to say. You should really think twice before making accusations or throwing around insults.

All hail King Troll.

I love it!

You know, I think you're great.. someone should pay you for this stuff.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	curley
	That presupposes that the more people believe something, the "righter" it is. That is not the case and can be seen in history too. Take Galileo Galilei who dared to claim the planets circle the sun.

It doesn't. It effectively employs the lessons of history. If that one proponent of a differing theory can effectively make their case in the face of huge opposition, their theory gains traction.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Isn't the popular belief that China's growth is firstly misrepresented, and secondly, not sustainable?

Yes, but it's clearly growing far faster than EU growth rates. Not sustainable at current rates but sustainable as substantially higher than EU growth rates, that will be an issue 30 years down the line.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Yes, but it's clearly growing far faster than EU growth rates. Not sustainable at current rates but sustainable as substantially higher than EU growth rates, that will be an issue 30 years down the line.

I wonder how accurate forecasts of the global economy 30 years ago are in today's world?

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Yes, but it's clearly growing far faster than EU growth rates. Not sustainable at current rates but sustainable as substantially higher than EU growth rates, that will be an issue 30 years down the line.

China is modernizing at an incredible rate. The more this happens, the more of a middle class will develop and start demanding expensive things, like human rights and holiday pay.

When you are starting at the bottom and have an almost limitless supply of indentured homegrown slaves to build your country, you grow quickly - when they get educated and start demanding a chunk of the pie, then your growth slows or you become North Korea and suppress dissent.

That said, China is outstripping us in transport infrastructure (building new easier than upgrading old) and green energy tech - largely because the burgeoning middle class aren't huge fans of living in Dickensian smog.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Yes, but it's clearly growing far faster than EU growth rates. Not sustainable at current rates but sustainable as substantially higher than EU growth rates, that will be an issue 30 years down the line.

But as I already posted they are working from a much lower point.
GDP per head in China is $16,842 and they are number 79 on the list of World country GDP's per head, about the same as the Maldives and the Dominican Republic whereas EU countries range between $45K and $75K.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Just like the racist that never uses the N-word.

Numpty is just another word for the S-word, no?

	Quote:	curley
	That presupposes that the more people believe something, the "righter" it is. That is not the case and can be seen in history too. Take Galileo Galilei who dared to claim the planets circle the sun. While majorities are a good thing for final decisions - as it says more people can live with a decision than not - they do not stand for a correct decision. It's just a way to move on (for the moment).

I'm not sure Galileo is the best comparison to make with anti-vaxxers and "bugger you, Jack" types. In my humble opinion, obvs.

[Blueangel]

For anyone who missed it, the sweet little old lady in this video clip who was introduced to the PM yesterday, wasn't overly impressed by him And this came after another day of him being heckled everywhere he went. He looks exhausted.

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1194694105013608455

[John William]

	Quote:
	China is modernizing at an incredible rate. The more this happens, the more of a middle class will develop and start demanding expensive things, like human rights and holiday pay. When you are starting at the bottom and have an almost limitless supply of indentured homegrown slaves to build your country, you grow quickly - when they get educated and start demanding a chunk of the pie, then your growth slows or you become North Korea and suppress dissent. That said, China is outstripping us in transport infrastructure (building new easier than upgrading old) and green energy tech - largely because the burgeoning middle class aren't huge fans of living in Dickensian smog.

Maybe the pro-democracy protests will spread from Hong Kong to China, somehow it looks like more
than a coincidence that the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong started on the 30 anniversary
year of the Fall of the Berlin Wall.

In fact if the Chinese hadn't suppressed the 1989 protests in Tiananmen Square back in 1989, maybe
Chinese communism might have gone the way communism fell, in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	This is the thing about t'internet, fringe ideas and falsehoods become disproportionately amplified. I was listening to the 'On The House' podcast the other week where Dr. Phillip Lee was blaming a lot of the downturn in vaccinations in the UK with tv media claiming to present 'both sides of the debate'. He made the excellent point that, if a certain view is held by only 1% of the medical profession, then the only correct way to represent that view accurately would be to have a tv panel of 99 doctors who support vaccination debating 1 doctor who doesn't. Anything other than that gives more weight and validity to a fringe view.

By that logic, a discussion on UK-Chinese relations should also have the Chinese and UK side proportionally represented according to the population size of those countries.

That said, I don't think the Internet is soley at fault for amplifying fringe views. Journalism has been doing that for deacdes. And that is because fringe stuff sells. People want to see coverage of some minority groups doing wierd stuff and not documentaries on lawn mowers and emerging trends in contemporary accountancy. This can over time create the impresion that people doing wierd stuff are actually more important / numerous than in reality they are. Ditto for puppies born with two heads and oddly shaped turnips.

Lol at the idea that Brexit, under current conditions, is a good idea.

Anyone who still defends the notion, looking at the unprincipled shysters who are responsible for delivering it, and knowing what we know about improperly prepared life outside the bloc, either secretly has something to gain from the fiasco, or is simply stupid.

Yes, Mr Clifton, I used the S-word. I don't really care if "conservative" snowflakes take offence, since conservatism is dead anyway. Time to suck it up and move on.

	Quote:	amogles
	By that logic, a discussion on UK-Chinese relations should also have the Chinese and UK side proportionally represented according to the population size of those countries. That said, I don't think the Internet is solely at fault for amplifying fringe views. Journalism has been doing that for decades. And that is because fringe stuff sells. People want to see coverage of some minority groups doing weird stuff and not documentaries on lawn mowers and emerging trends in contemporary accountancy. This can over time create the impression that people doing weird stuff are actually more important / numerous than in reality they are. Ditto for puppies born with two heads and oddly shaped turnips.

I understood it as being applicable to "debate and views" rather than "trade and economic negotiations"?

You can look at the "proportion" argument applying to any subject but I don't think it's relevant in the way you have used it.