The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	bowlie
	Following the debate, I don’t think many of the electorate were swayed. The polls suggest that it will be close and it appears the conservatives will not have enough to force through Brexit. Plus ça change plus c'est la même chose.

I believe this will be a difficult election for the pollsters to forecast due to a lot of local variations in voting patterns.
My opinion is also that no party will finish up with an overall majority and this mess will drift on down the road.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I doubt it will make any difference, the only people incensed are people who would have never voted Conservative in the first place.

I believe that traditional Tories won't like deceit being employed on a scale that we have seen from the Trump administration handbook, and largely because they can see in real time, exactly where that is ending up. I also believe that the leading Tories are going out of their way to appeal to voters who are a very long way from traditional Conservative values. That will inevitably change the tone of the party as a whole and the Tories I know won't take kindly to that. Mind you, they'd also rarely go north of the M4.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I doubt it will make any difference, the only people incensed are people who would have never voted Conservative in the first place.

Not true. Not true at all.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Not when the day after this, they also refused to have the Daily Mirror journo included in the press pack on their campaign bus. It's exactly the same as Trump excluding CNN from WH press briefings. This is causing a growing sense of unease. The C4 interview last night is also causing consternation, particularly after Johnson recently dragged C4 abroad for an interview whcih he cancelled at the last moment. Tory ministers claiming C4 News has a left wing agenda is an issue.

Channel 4 news does have left wing agenda though. Jon Snow was chanting “f*** the Tories” two years ago at Glastonbury. Channel 4 news’ boss has branded Boris Johnson a “known liar” and a “coward”.

Peter Sissons died recently. He should be sorely missed because he simply read the news. No broadcaster seems to be capable these days of not ramming their own personal agenda as fact down viewers throats.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I believe that traditional Tories won't like deceit being employed on a scale that we have seen from the Trump administration handbook, and largely because they can see in real time, exactly where that is ending up. I also believe that the leading Tories are going out of their way to appeal to voters who are a very long way from traditional Conservative values. That will inevitably change the tone of the party as a whole and the Tories I know won't take kindly to that. Mind you, they'd also rarely go north of the M4.

A look at any map of the results of the last election would prove that last point to be nonsense. You also don’t appear to appreciate the realignment that has taken place to the English speaking world’s political compass in recent years. Taking aside that Leave/Remain will likely be the key issues which determines who people vote for in the coming election, there has also been a shift parties that best represents people’s values.

In short, wealthy people are more progressive and working people are now more conservative. This is why the Tories are able to go after voters who traditionally would never have voted for them. Whilst Labour have become a grab bag of the very wealthy, the green left, Marxists, antisemites and the welfare classes, the Tories appeal to those who cherish traditional values, the family unit and those that want to have money put into their pockets rather than have it taken out.

[YuropFlyer]

Could this thread be moved to jokes/funnies? Seems Brexit would be better placed there

[Island Monkey]

Just received my ballot paper. Despite it saying no stamp required.... I'm totally paranoid it won't make it back there without one

[roegner]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Also, the Larry calendar is on sale now or anyone who's interested

Where please?

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	the Tories appeal to those who cherish traditional values, the family unit

Just like their twice divorced, serial philandering, unsure of number of biological children leader?

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Channel 4 news’ boss has branded Boris Johnson a “known liar” and a “coward”.

Sounds like accurate reporting of facts to me. And no, I'm not joking.

	Quote:
	Sounds like accurate reporting of facts to me. And no, I'm not joking.

Wasn't he fired from the Times for lying?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	YuropFlyer
	Could this thread be moved to jokes/funnies? Seems Brexit would be better placed there

Hush now, don’t distribute the Brits when they are trying to decide which kind of disaster is in the best interests of their country.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Hush now, don’t distribute the Brits when they are trying to decide which kind of disaster is in the best interests of their country.

Oi, there's no need for that altitude!

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	...you are both clearly are expecting a Tory collapse.

No, but if Josh Holloway strode out of the sea towards me (as in his old Davidoff Cool Water ad) and pulled that election result out of his keks... I'd be one ecstatically happy puppy.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	A look at any map of the results of the last election would prove that last point to be nonsense.

I did specify "the Tories I know won't take kindly to that" which would be people I know very well personally who happen to live in Guildford, Godalming, Fleet, Farnborough, Frimley, Windsor and Twickenham.

As for this comment of yours... You also don’t appear to appreciate the realignment that has taken place to the English speaking world’s political compass in recent years... what about Canada? New Zealand?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:
	Oi, there's no need for that altitude!

Sometime auto correct is not a wonderful thing....

But this is like watching a car crash, the only doubt is will the driver hit the wall or the electricity pylon.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I did specify "the Tories I know won't take kindly to that" which would be people I know very well personally who happen to live in Guildford, Godalming, Fleet, Farnborough, Frimley, Windsor and Twickenham. As for this comment of yours... You also don’t appear to appreciate the realignment that has taken place to the English speaking world’s political compass in recent years... what about Canada? New Zealand?

What about Canada and New Zealand? It’s happened in these places too.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	...................Taking aside that Leave/Remain will likely be the key issues which determines who people vote for in the coming election, there has also been a shift parties that best represents people’s values.

I don't agree. People are bored with Leave/Remain, in GEs people are more interested in local issues.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	............In short, wealthy people are more progressive and working people are now more conservative. ..................

Not my experience! A limited sample but most wealthy people I know live in the past, cushioned by their wealth from the real world.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	What about Canada and New Zealand? It’s happened in these places too.

Expand.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	marton
	I don't agree. People are bored with Leave/Remain, in GEs people are more interested in local issues. Not my experience! A limited sample but most wealthy people I know live in the past, cushioned by their wealth from the real world.

There’s a small chance that you’re right. I don’t believe so though, however we’ll find out on December 13th. Brexit has paralysed Parliament so very little is happening at the moment with regards to domestic policy. If people care about local issues then they’ll vote to get Brexit done. The polling suggest otherwise with Brexit being by far the most important issue.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...neral-election

Again in another poll, where one should be careful as they are very open to error, this one shows though that the Tories is now the party of the working classes.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-a4286956.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...eral-election/

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Expand.

In Canada this premise is best demonstrated by the party leaders. You have Trudeau as PM and leader of the Liberal Party, the ultimate SJW and face of modern elite progressives (“peoplekind” anyone?). He’s also white privilege personified – son of a former Prime Minister, part of a political dynasty, well-educated, wealthy and basically as far removed from the middle (working) classes as one could possibly be. He cannot possibly have any idea what it is like to be working class. On the other hand you have Andrew Scheer as leader of the Conservatives, who grew up in a working class family that didn’t own a car.

I’m not going to pretend I have anything other than an disinterested curiosity in New Zealand politics. What I would say though is that the sight of babies turning up in Parliament or PM Jacinda Ardern donning a headscarf following the Mosque shootings earlier this year is not something that will resonate with working class voters. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the current Labour Party isn’t the largest in their Parliament and that the center-right National Party holds that accolade.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Brexit has paralysed Parliament

Not really, no. Certainly didn't paralyse parliament as everything else continued more-or-less as normal. Didn't even take that much parliamentary time apart from the very public flurries at the time of each deadline.

Do you really believe parliament has talked about absolutely nothing except Brexit the last 3 years?

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	polling

Not really on your point but I believe opinion polling is going to be exceptionally difficult this time.
- Many commentators are predicting a low turnout, depends on who actually gets their support to the polls
- Small sample national level polls cannot properly look at regional shifts, the margin for error is far too high. You would need a sample of perhaps 10,000 to have a decent shot at that - most polls are 1,000 - 1,500. This is compounded by FPTP.

Could well be that even the exit poll (which does usually have a sample of about 10,000) has trouble as they are expecting more postal votes than usual - which won't count in the exit poll