The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	the middle (working) classes

Just out of curiosity, which part of Britain are you from? I'd love to understand you a little better.

	Quote:
	Small sample national level polls cannot properly look at regional shifts, the margin for error is far too high. You would need a sample of perhaps 10,000 to have a decent shot at that - most polls are 1,000 - 1,500.

Required sample sizes always come as a surprise to most lay people. A sample size of 1,500 yields a 95% confidence limit for UK general election polling where support for each of the two major parties is relatively close to each other. That said, polls are still polls and big shocks can still happen... can't they, Hillary...

	Quote:
	Required sample sizes always come as a surprise to most lay people. A sample size of 1,500 yields a 95% confidence limit for UK general election polling where support for each of the two major parties is relatively close to each other. ...

...and - given FPTP - no significant geographic shifts. National vote will come out OK but the actual result in seats could be something else again.

[Raffles]

	Quote:
	Just out of curiosity, which part of Britain are you from? I'd love to understand you a little better.

Probably from one of these DB.

.https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/526225...es-in-britain/

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:
	Sounds like accurate reporting of facts to me. And no, I'm not joking.

Here is Andrew Neil explaining to Krishnan Guru-Murthy the difference between a journalist and an activist. I think it answers the point well.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1197814682716921861

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Here is Andrew Neil explaining to Krishnan Guru-Murthy the difference between a journalist and an activist. I think it answers the point well. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1197814682716921861

Read the comments underneath.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	I’m not going to pretend I have anything other than an disinterested curiosity in New Zealand politics. What I would say though is that the sight of babies turning up in Parliament or PM Jacinda Ardern donning a headscarf following the Mosque shootings earlier this year is not something that will resonate with working class voters.

Why not? Are working class folk not interested in working mothers and religious tolerance?

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Here is Andrew Neil explaining to Krishnan Guru-Murthy the difference between a journalist and an activist. I think it answers the point well. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1197814682716921861

Journalists have always had an opinion. This is not a new thing, except in the imaginations of imaginary Brits.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:
	Why not? Are working class folk not interested in working mothers and religious tolerance?

Not nearly as interested as they are in loss of identity or sacrificing the nation state to global institutions.

Another example to turn to is the Australian election this year. Labour were convinced that green issues would feature so high on the agenda of the electorate that they focused a campaign around it. Low and behold once the results came out they were shocked when the center-right Liberal/National Coalition won. It turns out people care a lot less about green issues then they do at the prospect of the cost this policy would have on jobs and the economy.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Not nearly as interested as they are in loss of identity or sacrificing the nation state to global institutions. Another example to turn to is the Australian election this year. Labour were convinced that green issues would feature so high on the agenda of the electorate that they focused a campaign around it. Low and behold once the results came out they were shocked when the center-right Liberal/National Coalition won. It turns out people care a lot less about green issues then they do at the prospect of the cost this policy would have on jobs and the economy.

Why not? You seem to be making a lot of generalisations about "working classes ". What has Oz got to do with the Dec GE?

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	Journalists have always had an opinion. This is not a new thing, except in the imaginations of imaginary Brits.

Both of the journos in that offering have their supporters and their detractors. Personally, I find Andrew Neill more adversarial and entertainment. He can be wonderfully right and horribly wrong. With Krishnan (or as my OH calls him, my "brother from another mother" ) I'm far more inclined to fact check and research his pieces out of interest rather than doubt. I find him more stimulating.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Not nearly as interested as they are in loss of identity or sacrificing the nation state to global institutions. Another example to turn to is the Australian election this year. Labour were convinced that green issues would feature so high on the agenda of the electorate that they focused a campaign around it. Low and behold once the results came out they were shocked when the center-right Liberal/National Coalition won. It turns out people care a lot less about green issues then they do at the prospect of the cost this policy would have on jobs and the economy.

Sorry, I must have missed your answer. You are a Brit, yeah? Northerner or Southerner? Scouse or Woollyback? Yam Yam or Brummie? Cockney or Cockwomble?

You can't blame me for being curious, can you?

In the interests of full disclosure: I'm a Yam Yam from South Staffordshire and I've never visited Salisbury in my life, but I understand that the cathedral has a very fine spire.

	Quote:
	Sorry, I must have missed your answer. You are a Brit, yeah? Northerner or Southerner? Scouse or Woollyback? Yam Yam or Brummie? Cockney or Cockwomble? You can't blame me for being curious, can you? In the interests of full disclosure: I'm a Yam Yam from South Staffordshire and I've never visited Salisbury in my life, but I understand that the cathedral has a very fine spire.

The weather in Wiltshire is fine this time of year.

	Quote:
	The weather in Wiltshire is fine this time of year.

It's grey and cold in Greater Manc

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	Sorry, I must have missed your answer. You are a Brit, yeah? Northerner or Southerner? Scouse or Woollyback? Yam Yam or Brummie? Cockney or Cockwomble?

I reckon he's a Lobbygobbler or a shandy drinker. Definitely not a baby's yed nosher. Possibly a Sandgrounder (as opposed to THE Sandgrounder ) or even a donkey lasher.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I reckon he's a Lobbygobbler or a shandy drinker. Definitely not a baby's yed nosher. Possibly a Sandgrounder (as opposed to THE Sandgrounder ) or even a donkey lasher.

I'd have put my money on a minglesnatcher or himble-sausage myself.

I'm sure he'll put us right soon enough.

Not a DeeDar.

No reply? I suspect he is off for his pendigestatory interludicule.

[Raffles]

It’s ‘ollin it dahn here.
He'll bobby off soon DB. Eh’s gorra munk on.

[roegner]

	Quote:
	No reply? I suspect he is off for his pendigestatory interludicule.

Black Adder?