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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #24601  
Old 21.11.2019, 15:04
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Hush now, don’t distribute the Brits when they are trying to decide which kind of disaster is in the best interests of their country.
Oi, there's no need for that altitude!


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  #24602  
Old 21.11.2019, 18:33
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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...you are both clearly are expecting a Tory collapse.
No, but if Josh Holloway strode out of the sea towards me (as in his old Davidoff Cool Water ad) and pulled that election result out of his keks... I'd be one ecstatically happy puppy.

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A look at any map of the results of the last election would prove that last point to be nonsense.
I did specify "the Tories I know won't take kindly to that" which would be people I know very well personally who happen to live in Guildford, Godalming, Fleet, Farnborough, Frimley, Windsor and Twickenham.

As for this comment of yours... You also don’t appear to appreciate the realignment that has taken place to the English speaking world’s political compass in recent years... what about Canada? New Zealand?
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  #24603  
Old 21.11.2019, 20:07
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Oi, there's no need for that altitude!


Sometime auto correct is not a wonderful thing....

But this is like watching a car crash, the only doubt is will the driver hit the wall or the electricity pylon.
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  #24604  
Old 21.11.2019, 21:08
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I did specify "the Tories I know won't take kindly to that" which would be people I know very well personally who happen to live in Guildford, Godalming, Fleet, Farnborough, Frimley, Windsor and Twickenham.

As for this comment of yours... You also don’t appear to appreciate the realignment that has taken place to the English speaking world’s political compass in recent years... what about Canada? New Zealand?
What about Canada and New Zealand? It’s happened in these places too.
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  #24605  
Old 21.11.2019, 22:11
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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...................Taking aside that Leave/Remain will likely be the key issues which determines who people vote for in the coming election, there has also been a shift parties that best represents people’s values.
I don't agree. People are bored with Leave/Remain, in GEs people are more interested in local issues.

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............In short, wealthy people are more progressive and working people are now more conservative. ..................
Not my experience! A limited sample but most wealthy people I know live in the past, cushioned by their wealth from the real world.
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  #24606  
Old 21.11.2019, 23:38
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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What about Canada and New Zealand? It’s happened in these places too.
Expand.
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  #24607  
Old 22.11.2019, 09:48
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I don't agree. People are bored with Leave/Remain, in GEs people are more interested in local issues.



Not my experience! A limited sample but most wealthy people I know live in the past, cushioned by their wealth from the real world.
There’s a small chance that you’re right. I don’t believe so though, however we’ll find out on December 13th. Brexit has paralysed Parliament so very little is happening at the moment with regards to domestic policy. If people care about local issues then they’ll vote to get Brexit done. The polling suggest otherwise with Brexit being by far the most important issue.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...neral-election

Again in another poll, where one should be careful as they are very open to error, this one shows though that the Tories is now the party of the working classes.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-a4286956.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...eral-election/
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  #24608  
Old 22.11.2019, 09:54
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Expand.
In Canada this premise is best demonstrated by the party leaders. You have Trudeau as PM and leader of the Liberal Party, the ultimate SJW and face of modern elite progressives (“peoplekind” anyone?). He’s also white privilege personified – son of a former Prime Minister, part of a political dynasty, well-educated, wealthy and basically as far removed from the middle (working) classes as one could possibly be. He cannot possibly have any idea what it is like to be working class. On the other hand you have Andrew Scheer as leader of the Conservatives, who grew up in a working class family that didn’t own a car.

I’m not going to pretend I have anything other than an disinterested curiosity in New Zealand politics. What I would say though is that the sight of babies turning up in Parliament or PM Jacinda Ardern donning a headscarf following the Mosque shootings earlier this year is not something that will resonate with working class voters. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the current Labour Party isn’t the largest in their Parliament and that the center-right National Party holds that accolade.
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  #24609  
Old 22.11.2019, 10:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Brexit has paralysed Parliament
Not really, no. Certainly didn't paralyse parliament as everything else continued more-or-less as normal. Didn't even take that much parliamentary time apart from the very public flurries at the time of each deadline.

Do you really believe parliament has talked about absolutely nothing except Brexit the last 3 years?

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polling
Not really on your point but I believe opinion polling is going to be exceptionally difficult this time.
- Many commentators are predicting a low turnout, depends on who actually gets their support to the polls
- Small sample national level polls cannot properly look at regional shifts, the margin for error is far too high. You would need a sample of perhaps 10,000 to have a decent shot at that - most polls are 1,000 - 1,500. This is compounded by FPTP.

Could well be that even the exit poll (which does usually have a sample of about 10,000) has trouble as they are expecting more postal votes than usual - which won't count in the exit poll
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  #24610  
Old 22.11.2019, 10:14
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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the middle (working) classes
Just out of curiosity, which part of Britain are you from? I'd love to understand you a little better.
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  #24611  
Old 22.11.2019, 10:17
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Small sample national level polls cannot properly look at regional shifts, the margin for error is far too high. You would need a sample of perhaps 10,000 to have a decent shot at that - most polls are 1,000 - 1,500.
Required sample sizes always come as a surprise to most lay people. A sample size of 1,500 yields a 95% confidence limit for UK general election polling where support for each of the two major parties is relatively close to each other. That said, polls are still polls and big shocks can still happen... can't they, Hillary...
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  #24612  
Old 22.11.2019, 10:25
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Required sample sizes always come as a surprise to most lay people. A sample size of 1,500 yields a 95% confidence limit for UK general election polling where support for each of the two major parties is relatively close to each other. ...
...and - given FPTP - no significant geographic shifts. National vote will come out OK but the actual result in seats could be something else again.
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  #24613  
Old 22.11.2019, 10:41
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Just out of curiosity, which part of Britain are you from? I'd love to understand you a little better.
Probably from one of these DB.

.https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/526225...es-in-britain/
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  #24614  
Old 22.11.2019, 13:38
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Sounds like accurate reporting of facts to me. And no, I'm not joking.
Here is Andrew Neil explaining to Krishnan Guru-Murthy the difference between a journalist and an activist. I think it answers the point well.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1197814682716921861
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  #24615  
Old 22.11.2019, 13:45
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Here is Andrew Neil explaining to Krishnan Guru-Murthy the difference between a journalist and an activist. I think it answers the point well.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1197814682716921861
Read the comments underneath.
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  #24616  
Old 22.11.2019, 13:46
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I’m not going to pretend I have anything other than an disinterested curiosity in New Zealand politics. What I would say though is that the sight of babies turning up in Parliament or PM Jacinda Ardern donning a headscarf following the Mosque shootings earlier this year is not something that will resonate with working class voters.
Why not? Are working class folk not interested in working mothers and religious tolerance?
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Old 22.11.2019, 14:04
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Here is Andrew Neil explaining to Krishnan Guru-Murthy the difference between a journalist and an activist. I think it answers the point well.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1197814682716921861
Journalists have always had an opinion. This is not a new thing, except in the imaginations of imaginary Brits.
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  #24618  
Old 22.11.2019, 14:18
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Why not? Are working class folk not interested in working mothers and religious tolerance?
Not nearly as interested as they are in loss of identity or sacrificing the nation state to global institutions.

Another example to turn to is the Australian election this year. Labour were convinced that green issues would feature so high on the agenda of the electorate that they focused a campaign around it. Low and behold once the results came out they were shocked when the center-right Liberal/National Coalition won. It turns out people care a lot less about green issues then they do at the prospect of the cost this policy would have on jobs and the economy.
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Old 22.11.2019, 14:26
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Not nearly as interested as they are in loss of identity or sacrificing the nation state to global institutions.

Another example to turn to is the Australian election this year. Labour were convinced that green issues would feature so high on the agenda of the electorate that they focused a campaign around it. Low and behold once the results came out they were shocked when the center-right Liberal/National Coalition won. It turns out people care a lot less about green issues then they do at the prospect of the cost this policy would have on jobs and the economy.
Why not? You seem to be making a lot of generalisations about "working classes ". What has Oz got to do with the Dec GE?
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  #24620  
Old 22.11.2019, 14:39
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Journalists have always had an opinion. This is not a new thing, except in the imaginations of imaginary Brits.
Both of the journos in that offering have their supporters and their detractors. Personally, I find Andrew Neill more adversarial and entertainment. He can be wonderfully right and horribly wrong. With Krishnan (or as my OH calls him, my "brother from another mother" ) I'm far more inclined to fact check and research his pieces out of interest rather than doubt. I find him more stimulating.
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