The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	Someone call that guy an ambulance...

And he's a former manager for Odey Asset Management nonetheless. In plain sight or what!

[Jim2007]

	Quote:
	I didn't say they wouldn't get a deal. I'm sure they will.

Any deal with Canada that is as good as the current Canada/EU deal will require EU approval. How do I know this? Because I read it in the trade deal agreement.

Another one of those little facts that BREXITEERS like to ignore until it eventually bits them in the ass.

Oh and the Japanese deal is the same, as are the deals being negotiated with Australia, New Zealand and India as well.

[22 yards]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	You said “some” worn out country.

Did I? When?

I'm here to help. Let me start by repeating what I actually said.

	Quote:	22 yards
	A destabilized EU would be a far greater prize for Putin than some mid-sized European country having the dust blown off its superseded, worn-out "traditions".

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	And “its” superseded worm-out traditions. My apologies.

.

And your problem with "its" is...? Anyway, I accept your apologies.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Any deal with Canada that is as good as the current Canada/EU deal will require EU approval. How do I know this? Because I read it in the trade deal agreement. Another one of those little facts that BREXITEERS like to ignore until it eventually bits them in the ass. Oh and the Japanese deal is the same, as are the deals being negotiated with Australia, New Zealand and India as well.

you beat me to it

and unless the uk leaves with no deal the eu also has to ok any trade deals they do

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	you beat me to it and unless the uk leaves with no deal the eu also has to ok any trade deals they do

That in itself is a good reason to leave without a deal.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	That in itself is a good reason to leave without a deal.

Are you sure about that? The EU and the UK have already agreed the financial obligations of the UK leaving the EU. Going “no-deal” doesn’t mean the UK gets a ‘get-out-of-jail free card’, at least as far as the EU is concerned.

I am certain the EU will not stand in the way of the UK making trade deals with third countries, as soon as those financial obligations have been met.

Why would they?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	bowlie
	Are you sure about that? The EU and the UK have already agreed the financial obligations of the UK leaving the EU. Going “no-deal” doesn’t mean the UK gets a ‘get-out-of-jail free card’, at least as far as the EU is concerned. I am certain the EU will not stand in the way of the UK making trade deals with third countries, as soon as those financial obligations have been met. Why would they?

No, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, so the financial obligations are only agreed in the event of a deal.

UK would be the EU's second biggest trading partner & the biggest trading partner does not have a deal either.

[bowlie]

The EU is going to make ‘no deal’ as difficult as possible. For their own selfish reasons, including sending a very clear message to any other exiters. They will dnsure the UK meets their agreed upon obligations.

Why? Because they can, and it would be folly to not do so.

There is not one good reason why they wouldn’t. Wishful thinking doesn’t count.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	bowlie
	The EU is going to make ‘no deal’ as difficult as possible. For their own selfish reasons, including sending a very clear message to any other exiters. They will dnsure the UK meets their agreed upon obligations. Why? Because they can, and it would be folly to not do so. There is not one good reason why they wouldn’t. Wishful thinking doesn’t count.

In the event of no deal everything will be subject to negotiation, as you say the EU won't be in a hurry so they can wait until they are happy. They don't even need to negotiate at all if they think that is a good way forward.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Any deal with Canada that is as good as the current Canada/EU deal will require EU approval. How do I know this? Because I read it in the trade deal agreement. Another one of those little facts that BREXITEERS like to ignore until it eventually bits them in the ass. Oh and the Japanese deal is the same, as are the deals being negotiated with Australia, New Zealand and India as well.

There is some misleading information here which should be corrected. What he's referring to is Most Favoured Nation clauses in FTAs which are nothing new. They've been around for years and one doesn't need to have read the trade deal agreement between Canada and the EU to be aware of them.

They actually form the basis of the WTO for countries that don't have FTAs. They're certainly not as one sided as is implied here, in the case of Canada/EU it is a reciprocal clause. It doesn't mean that the EU has to "approve" a trade deal between the UK and Canada, it simply means that if the conditions of the deal are better, then Canada is obliged to match these conditions with the EU.

In the context of Brexit, it is actually the likes of Japan and Canada which have these MFN clauses that will problematic, and not the EU. If the UK wants the have access to the EU market for say Services, then the EU is obliged to offer Japan and Canada the same conditions. This is where things could become tricky because the EU may not be willing to open up its markets to Japan and Canada for Services so is unable to do a deal with the UK.

MFN clauses are not beyond the wit of man to solve in striking an FTA, however they maybe beyond the wit of the elected government.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	...................In the context of Brexit, it is actually the likes of Japan and Canada which have these MFN clauses that will problematic, and not the EU. If the UK wants the have access to the EU market for say Services, then the EU is obliged to offer Japan and Canada the same conditions. This is where things could become tricky because the EU may not be willing to open up its markets to Japan and Canada for Services so is unable to do a deal with the UK. MFN clauses are not beyond the wit of man to solve in striking an FTA, however they maybe beyond the wit of the elected government.

The EU/Canada agreement already covers services?

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:
	I didn't say they wouldn't get a deal. I'm sure they will. Just not on the same terms as they had when they were part of the EU. Of course you can't "buck the market" but the market suddenly becomes a much tougher place when you're on your own. Even tougher when you've got a bunch of clowns who couldn't negotiate a cappuccino in Starbucks.

The UK has a slightly larger economy than Canada. They share history, language, values and a monarch. There is absolutely no reason for there not to be a deal struck, especially considering the UK is the largest market for Canada in the EU.

People seem to get so hung up on having a "better" deal, but what does better even mean? It's almost Trumpean, and we don't want to go down that route. It's not about screwing the other party, it's about coming out with a deal which is in the interest of both. Switzerland has an FTA with China, but you don't see China having Switzerland over a barrel.

What the UK needs are FTAs that suit its needs, which is the advantage of being a single nation as these needs are a lot smaller than that of a trading bloc. Australia and the USA were able to agree and sign off a FTA in about 18 months. The EU and USA have been negotiating since forever.

It's not all plain sailing as many Brexiteers assume but it is achievable.

	Quote:
	OK so I've read-skimmed-read to the end. Where is the paragraph where you think the EU will budge and grant the UK everything it wants in the event of a no-deal Brexit? There's an awful lot in that article about why leaving is a bad idea and precious little of why it is good.

There is no paragraph where he says he thinks the EU will budge. It's rather a hope/warning. Sir Ivan worked for the EU and clearly a Remainer, but even he realises that if the EU push too hard then the long term political consequences could be dire.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	The UK has a slightly larger economy than Canada. They share history, language, values and a monarch. There is absolutely no reason for there not to be a deal struck, especially considering the UK is the largest market for Canada in the EU.

I'm sure the airy-fairy misty-eyed approach will work on the global stage.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	People seem to get so hung up on having a "better" deal, but what does better even mean? It's almost Trumpean, and we don't want to go down that route. It's not about screwing the other party, it's about coming out with a deal which is in the interest of both. Switzerland has an FTA with China, but you don't see China having Switzerland over a barrel.

It seems to be only the Tory boys which are barking about "better" deals. People with their feet on the ground are seriously doubting the UK will be able to score an equivalent deal or even anywhere close.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	What the UK needs are FTAs that suit its needs, which is the advantage of being a single nation as these needs are a lot smaller than that of a trading bloc. Australia and the USA were able to agree and sign off a FTA in about 18 months. The EU and USA have been negotiating since forever.

It's already abundantly clear that the UK is not in a strong negotiating position.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	It's not all plain sailing as many Brexiteers assume but it is achievable.

Err... well, exactly.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	There is no paragraph where he says he thinks the EU will budge. It's rather a hope/warning. Sir Ivan worked for the EU and clearly a Remainer, but even he realises that if the EU push too hard then the long term political consequences could be dire.

So usual Brexit rosy tinted goggles, then. The article didn't do what you thought it did. None of it, despite the guy criticising the EU, makes a convincing case for not being part of it.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	.......Australia and the USA were able to agree and sign off a FTA in about 18 months. The EU and USA have been negotiating since forever. It's not all plain sailing as many Brexiteers assume but it is achievable. There is no paragraph where he says he thinks the EU will budge. It's rather a hope/warning. Sir Ivan worked for the EU and clearly a Remainer, but even he realises that if the EU push too hard then the long term political consequences could be dire.

A couple of studies have shown both the US and Australia would have been better off without this agreement, here and here.

[Blueangel]

My Tory MP is in the news today

	Quote:
	A Conservative Party candidate standing for MP in the general election is facing bankruptcy proceedings. Adam Afriyie, 54, who has been Windsor's MP since 2005, is challenging an HMRC petition over unpaid tax due to be heard in the High Court in January... ...Being subject to bankruptcy proceedings does not disqualify an individual from standing as an MP, according to parliamentary rules. However, anyone subject to a bankruptcy restrictions order in England or Wales or a debt relief restrictions order - upon being declared bankrupt - would not be eligible to stand.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-berkshire-50573178

[higgybaby]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	My Tory MP is in the news today https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-berkshire-50573178

This morning on Radio 4 (1 hour 26 mins in) they said that Boris Johnson is still entitled to be Prime Minister if he loses his Uxbridge seat in this election. The PM needn't be a sitting MP under any regulations.
I heard it on the Beeb so apologies for quoting The Express:

"If Boris Johnson failed to get reelected as an MP but the Conservative Party won a majority, he could continue in his capacity as Prime Minister if he appointed himself as a Lord."

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	you beat me to it and unless the uk leaves with no deal the eu also has to ok any trade deals they do

Actually I expect the bigger issue is getting the trade schedules agreed at the WTO. Remember that all members must agree and it is disadvantageous for all. At the moment any shortfall or overrun in the UK can be balanced across the EU where as afterwards it will be lost, not something any political leader will want to take responsibility for.

[TonyClifton]

A member has made an inaccurate claim about the nature of nature of the MFNs and their relation to the EU/Canada FTA and no less than 7 members have thanked him for this misinformation. Then there is the bolder claim that he has read the FTA in full (this will be 1500 pages plus). No one has asked for evidence and have taken both claims at face value.

I have made far less bold statements and members have immediately asked for proof. When it’s provided they still don’t want to believe it. The modus operandi on this forum is clear. If I agree with what you’ve written then I’ll accept it without question. If I don’t agree with it then there is no way my mind will be changed.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	A member has made an inaccurate claim about the nature of nature of the MFNs and their relation to the EU/Canada FTA and no less than 7 members have thanked him for this misinformation. Then there is the bolder claim that he has read the FTA in full (this will be 1500 pages plus). No one has asked for evidence and have taken both claims at face value. I have made far less bold statements and members have immediately asked for proof. When it’s provided they still don’t want to believe it.

That's because many of us know each other in real life, and even when we don't, years of open conversation on the forum have given us a good idea of each others' credibility.

You, on the other hand, are cagey, evasive and dishonest.

Do your own maths.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	A member has made an inaccurate claim about the nature of nature of the MFNs and their relation to the EU/Canada FTA and no less than 7 members have thanked him for this misinformation. Then there is the bolder claim that he has read the FTA in full (this will be 1500 pages plus). No one has asked for evidence and have taken both claims at face value. I have made far less bold statements and members have immediately asked for proof. When it’s provided they still don’t want to believe it.

It isn't inaccurate - the EU / Canada deal's MFN clause is comprehensive on services and investments.

He didn't say he'd read all 1600 pages of it, he said he read about the MFN in the FTA...

	Quote:
	How do I know this? Because I read it in the trade deal agreement.

Time and again we come back to this - Brexiteers struggle badly on the details.