The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	I see Jim2007 has come back and referred to NAFTA, EFTA etc. this is merely a deflection. There are exceptions to MFNs, which is what I was referring to when I said that MFNs are not beyond the wit of man to solve. MFNs don't always apply when a country enters part of a wider trading bloc. For example post-Brexit one way the UK could avoid the issue of MFNs would be to enter into the something like the EEA or maybe even the CPTPP. However if you really want to play, let's play. Article 9.5. of CETA relating to cross-border trade in services: Paragraph 1: "no less favourable" not better. Paragraph 3: This is basically an exclusion clause for the MFN for cross-border trade in services (very important for the UK) if certain conditions are met. In addition to this there is also Article 8.7 which is worded in a similar fashion. Then there is also of course Annex II to CETA where on Page 1294 (Jim2007 knows this of course as he's already read it), there another exception to MFNs for Investment and Cross-Border Trade in Services that could work in the UKs favour. Perhaps Jim2007 can point out what this child has failed to understand? Or maybe the detail that this Brexiteer has struggled with? Never mind an oiled hog, just the treaty documentation will do. Now I’ll await for you to change the subject, twist my point, find an error in my detail, ignore this completely, anything but to admit I may be correct. I think that’s how it works here, right? https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in...er-by-chapter/ http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/doc...doc_152806.pdf

In all fairness, on a point of pedantry, you are correct - from the scale of much worse to equal to, there is no breach of the MFN clause, only when terms are bettered. Brexit wasn't sold on trade deals that were worse, or even just about as good as EU deals though.

Where you have made a gross error, however, is that financial services are expressly missing from paragraph 3, and those are the only services the UK gives a stuff about.

[Blueangel]

Quite a damning response from the IFS regarding the manifestos of the two main parties...

	Quote:
	General election: Tories and Labour not offering 'credible' spending plans - IFS The economic think tank says the choice between the two parties in the general election could "hardly be starker".

https://news.sky.com/story/general-e...s-ifs-11872321

[Blueangel]

Today is one of those rare occasions when I hope a rumour turns out to be true. This would be a powerful visual metaphor...

	Quote:
	Boris Johnson to be empty-chaired by Channel 4 after refusing to take part in live climate change debate Prime minister under pressure to back down and join leaders debate, as even his own father says focus on climate change 'tremendously important' Channel 4 confirmed to The Independent that it will empty-chair any leaders who do not show up. It refused to comment on reports that it had commissioned an ice sculpture of Mr Johnson to melt during the show if he declines to attend.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9222771.html

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Today is one of those rare occasions when I hope a rumour turns out to be true. This would be a powerful visual metaphor... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9222771.html

Looks like Farage will also be conspicuous by his absence.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Today is one of those rare occasions when I hope a rumour turns out to be true. This would be a powerful visual metaphor... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9222771.html

Of course there is no need for him to attend becauseonce the UK leaves the warm EU climate, it will go back to good old British weather.

[hairybadger]

I've just been reminded of the episode of "Have I got news for you" sometime in the 90s when Roy Hattersley cancelled at the last moment and his place was thus taken by a tub of lard. What would be used in Bojo's place?

[TonyClifton]

I get prodded with a stick and jibed at to come up with detail to back my claims and when I do it gets dismissed as irrelevant. This is the normal behaviour that bullies exhibit.

	Quote:
	In all fairness, on a point of pedantry, you are correct - from the scale of much worse to equal to, there is no breach of the MFN clause, only when terms are bettered. Brexit wasn't sold on trade deals that were worse, or even just about as good as EU deals though. Where you have made a gross error, however, is that financial services are expressly missing from paragraph 3, and those are the only services the UK gives a stuff about.

Financial Services are part of CETA however basically follow the WTO regime for Financial Services. This is the problem for the UK as full single market access for Financial Services is better than what CETA offers (e.g. passporting rights not included). If the UK and EU reach a trade agreement that includes single market Financial Services access then that could violate the MFN clause the EU has with Canada. Without going into too much detail, it is likely the exception clauses in Article 8.7.3 and 9.5.3 would cover passporting rights. It still remains to be tested though and will be a challenge to overcome.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	I get prodded with a stick and jibed at to come up with detail to back my claims and when I do it gets dismissed as irrelevant. This is the normal behaviour that bullies exhibit.

Christ, you could just log out. It's an internet forum not a sodding gulag.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	I get prodded with a stick and jibed at to come up with detail to back my claims and when I do it gets dismissed as irrelevant. This is the normal behaviour that bullies exhibit. Financial Services are part of CETA however basically follow the WTO regime for Financial Services. This is the problem for the UK as full single market access for Financial Services is better than what CETA offers (e.g. passporting rights not included). If the UK and EU reach a trade agreement that includes single market Financial Services access then that could violate the MFN clause the EU has with Canada. Without going into too much detail, it is likely the exception clauses in Article 8.7.3 and 9.5.3 would cover passporting rights. It still remains to be tested though and will be a challenge to overcome.

You're being a bit snowflakey here, I said on a point of pedantry you were correct - I'm not sure that is really bullying.

You are essentially admitting that in the absence of an EU/CAN Treaty reworking, financial services will not be part of any deal , so everyone else's point remains; for Britain it cannot be as good a deal as we have pre-Brexit.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Quite a damning response from the IFS regarding the manifestos of the two main parties... https://news.sky.com/story/general-e...s-ifs-11872321

This is the great concern for traditional conservatives like myself, that in turning too far to the left with their spending plans that the Tory Party can never seriously claim to be the party of fiscal responsibility in the future. The spending pledges in this election are just crazy. What's more concerning as a Brexiteer as that in order to make Brexit work you need a strong leader that will not be frightened to make the changes necessary to make Brexit a success. Otherwise Brexit becomes pointless and the UK may as well have stayed in the EU. The first step to that is moving away from a high spending, welfare addicted fiscal policy.

We know Boris Johnson will say whatever it takes to get into power, and that he'll pivot to whatever position the wind is blowing once there. The million dollar question is will he turn his back on the ERG after the election as he already has done to the DUP?

	Quote:	hairybadger
	I've just been reminded of the episode of "Have I got news for you" sometime in the 90s when Roy Hattersley cancelled at the last moment and his place was thus taken by a tub of lard. What would be used in Bojo's place?

Mop head?

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	hairybadger
	What would be used in Bojo's place?

6 baby's dummies and Larry the Cat whilst he's already offered to replace him in the debate and further interviews.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	6 baby's dummies and Larry the Cat whilst he's already offered to replace him in the debate and further interviews.

Stretching his hind leg over his head and licking his bumhole for the duration of the debate will still make more sense than anything BoJo's got to say.

[Blueangel]

You saw it too?

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/stat...73613074436097

	Quote:	Blueangel
	You saw it too? https://twitter.com/Number10cat/stat...73613074436097

Oh god! Nooo, just crossed my idle mind. Seems others had the same thought...

[Jim2007]

	Quote:
	Has anybody else reached the I-don't-give-a-flying-f@#$-about-the-minute-details-any-more stage on this topic, or is it just me? I vote we give TC his own sandbox to play in, and the rest of us can return to important issues such as the race to become Britain's premier anti-Semitic political party.

Yes called the ignore box, the only problem is it's go a child monitor on it that keeps tell you every time the dam kid does something.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:
	The anal details about it count for exactly nothing. Nothing stands up to scrutiny of the claims that the UK will be better off out of the EU in the current climate. Nothing has been negotiated to any meaningful degree and delusion about sovereignty seems to be the overriding battle cry.

And in the next round Big Phil will be in charge, so the BREXITEERS will have plenty to complain about....

[Blueangel]

Channel 4 now...


https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...12699021115392

[Fish Paste]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Channel 4 now... Attachment 138257 https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...12699021115392

Well they have two sculptures of the world, one at each end of the 5 presenters.
There isn't an empty pedestal with an ice BoJo slowly melting.


If you didn't know that Boris was missing, you wouldn't know from the stage.


It's a much better show than the woeful 'head to head' last week.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Channel 4 now... Attachment 138257 https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...12699021115392

Boris Johnson’s refusal have any contact with Channel 4 is entirely correct. If however he avoids the scrutiny of the Andrew Neil interview then he will lose my vote.