The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Are you sure you should be poking fun at someone who is not here to defend herself just to win yourself a cheap point?

I thought you would take it as a compliment, to be compared to possibly the most important highly connected person on the forum. She was here quite recently & am sure she will be reading this thread.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I thought you would take it as a compliment, to be compared to possibly the most important highly connected person on the forum. She was here quite recently & am sure she will be reading this thread.

Classy as ever.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:
	Haven't yet found 10 year numbers but looking at the last 5 certainly not what this study says. I'm pretty sure this was also the 2010-2015 pattern. The UK is one of the most unequal countries in the (developed) world - only Korea and the US are worse for wealth see here), also for income distribution (see earlier link)

It's outlined on the full fact website here (https://fullfact.org/economy/how-have-wages-changed/):

	Quote:
	“The recession itself affected low and high earners roughly equally, but low-paid earners have seen the fastest average wage growth since 2014: the lowest-earning 10% of workers saw their average pay rise by over 12%, compared to under 5% for middle and high earners. That’s partly reflected by growth in the minimum wage and the new National Living Wage, faster than inflation."

The data they use is taken from the ONS and ASHE. Whilst average wages have stagnated, the worst off have seen the biggest increase in wages since the recession. Average wage increase remains a big problem though, and something needs to be done to change it. Solving the issue however isn't easy and it is reflected across much of Europe. The UK government needs to resolve matching wage increases with inflation. They've managed to do it in Germany.

https://www.ft.com/content/0a245c28-...7-60ee53e6681d

The fact of the matter is that income inequality isn't as big an issue as the Labour Party likes to make out and the the Conservatives have done much to address it. Inequality remains an issue, however this is far more related to access to services. Wealthier areas have better access to services than poorer areas. It's partly to blame for example as to why poorer pupils get the worst exam results. This is the real issue, unfortunately the solutions to resolve it are not so simple.

Jeremy Corbyn seems to think that you can just tax the rich more and throw money at the problem and it will be resolved. Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that. The tax system is already set up so that never before have lower income workers been asked to pay a smaller share, and as I've already said, the top 1% already contribute more than a third of all income tax. You can only get so much milk from a cow.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:
	So, what's the alternative? Either everyone swots up on dry data and statistics and decides who they are going to vote for based on that, or people have shit lives which seem to be squarely caused by the current government and vote accordingly to effect change.

I use statistics yes, because they provide a better backdrop than the torrent of opinionated nonsense that constitutes news these days. Take that story on the front of the Mirror yesterday, terrible! What sort have country have we become with such relentless disinformation, on all sides I should add, in order to try and swing voters? I cannot remember a worse campaign.

I will be voting, with great reservation, for the Conservatives tomorrow. I have problems with Boris Johnson's trustworthiness, and I don't believe that he can deliver Brexit as he's promised. On the other side you shouldn't judge politicians on what they say they'll do, but on what they've done and Boris Johnson didn't do a bad job of running London. Jeremy Corbyn on the other hand has spend his entire career being a useless, protesting bank bencher.

The main reason I'm voting for Boris Johnson though, is because there is only a choice of two, and Jeremy Corbyn is utterly unfit for office. Aside from the antisemitism and his personal flaws, just look at his policies, they will never work. As with any form of socialism, as soon as one half of the population believes they will be paid for by the other half, the other half soon stops working. This is why every socialist economy ever has failed.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I thought you would take it as a compliment, to be compared to possibly the most important highly connected person on the forum. She was here quite recently & am sure she will be reading this thread.

Odile has been very quiet lately and it's highly unlikely she'll be back to comment on this. I know she decided to stop posting here a while ago and judging by the personal attacks she received, even when they were unjustified (that I could see it myself), I'd say it was the right decision. I asked her why did she stop posting here and she explained there were also some nasty private messages. It was a rather sad affair in my view.

I enjoyed reading her posts even though I didn't always agree with her. I don't share the others' dislike. Maybe it would be nice if we didn't talk about her when we know very well she might not be back to reply.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	I use statistics yes, because they provide a better backdrop than the torrent of opinionated nonsense that constitutes news these days. Take that story on the front of the Mirror yesterday, terrible! What sort have country have we become with such relentless disinformation, on all sides I should add, in order to try and swing voters? I cannot remember a worse campaign. I will be voting, with great reservation, for the Conservatives tomorrow. I have problems with Boris Johnson's trustworthiness, and I don't believe that he can deliver Brexit as he's promised. On the other side you shouldn't judge politicians on what they say they'll do, but on what they've done and Boris Johnson didn't do a bad job of running London. Jeremy Corbyn on the other hand has spend his entire career being a useless, protesting bank bencher. The main reason I'm voting for Boris Johnson though, is because there is only a choice of two, and Jeremy Corbyn is utterly unfit for office. Aside from the antisemitism and his personal flaws, just look at his policies, they will never work. As with any form of socialism, as soon as one half of the population believes they will be paid for by the other half, the other half soon stops working. This is why every socialist economy ever has failed.

So you are just voting as per your opinion, then? Same as literally everyone else. Nowt groundbreaking or special in that.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	It's outlined on the full fact website here (https://fullfact.org/economy/how-have-wages-changed/):

Or maybe not.

	Quote:
	404 Not Found We're sorry, this page does not appear to exist.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	The fact of the matter is that income inequality isn't as big an issue as the Labour Party likes to make out

Wrong

https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/sca...-inequality-uk

We are the 4th most unequal country in Europe.

	Quote:
	Or maybe not.

Does that mean people are 404 quid better or worse off?

[k_and_e]

	Quote:
	Or maybe not.

You need to remove the final )

the correct link: https://fullfact.org/economy/how-have-wages-changed/

	Quote:
	So you are just voting as per your opinion, then? Same as literally everyone else. Nowt groundbreaking or special in that.

Ah, but you see some opinions are more valid than others. Or something.

I'll personally be glad when when a decision is made. The dog and pony show is just horrendous.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Odile has been very quiet lately and it's highly unlikely she'll be back to comment on this. I know she decided to stop posting here a while ago and judging by the personal attacks she received, even when they were unjustified (that I could see it myself), I'd say it was the right decision. I asked her why did she stop posting here and she explained there were also some nasty private messages. It was a rather sad affair in my view. I enjoyed reading her posts even though I didn't always agree with her. I don't share the others' dislike. Maybe it would be nice if we didn't talk about her when we know very well she might not be back to reply.

Looking at her most recent log in, I don't believe we are going ignored.
No idea who sent the nasty private messages, nothing to do with me, no doubt she reported them.

	Quote:	k_and_e
	You need to remove the final ) the correct link: https://fullfact.org/economy/how-have-wages-changed/

Interestingly they have made no mention of the effect of interest rate cuts since the financial meant down.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:
	Wrong https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/sca...-inequality-uk We are the 4th most unequal country in Europe.

It appears that data is from 2013. It's anyhow pointless to compare the UK with the rest of Europe, where the difference in Gini coefficient are in any case small enough to be rendered almost meaningless in real terms. It's far more useful to compare to how inequality has progressed in the UKcomparison to what it was in the past.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40644850
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-38570809

They key question is would Labour's policies solve inequality? Well if making everyone poor is a solution, then perhaps they might! History tells us though that Labour leave office with debt, unemployment and recession, and this is before Jeremy Corbyn's policies are factored in. The poor will get poorer under Jeremy Corbyn's Labour.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	It appears that data is from 2013. It's anyhow pointless to compare the UK with the rest of Europe, where the difference in Gini coefficient are in any case small enough to be rendered almost meaningless in real terms. It's far more useful to compare to how inequality has progressed in the UKcomparison to what it was in the past. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40644850 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-38570809 They key question is would Labour's policies solve inequality? Well if making everyone poor is a solution, then perhaps they might! History tells us though that Labour leave office with debt, unemployment and recession, and this is before Jeremy Corbyn's policies are factored in. The poor will get poorer under Jeremy Corbyn's Labour.

This has been a party political broadcast on behalf of the Conservative Party.

Income inequality is only part of the equation - care to venture some stats on wealth inequality TC?

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	It appears that data is from 2013. It's anyhow pointless to compare the UK with the rest of Europe, where the difference in Gini coefficient are in any case small enough to be rendered almost meaningless in real terms. It's far more useful to compare to how inequality has progressed in the UKcomparison to what it was in the past. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40644850 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-38570809 They key question is would Labour's policies solve inequality? Well if making everyone poor is a solution, then perhaps they might! History tells us though that Labour leave office with debt, unemployment and recession, and this is before Jeremy Corbyn's policies are factored in. The poor will get poorer under Jeremy Corbyn's Labour.

And what will happen under Johnson?

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	It appears that data is from 2013. It's anyhow pointless to compare the UK with the rest of Europe, where the difference in Gini coefficient are in any case small enough to be rendered almost meaningless in real terms. It's far more useful to compare to how inequality has progressed in the UKcomparison to what it was in the past.

Not really.

Fact is according to most studies and comparisons (there will always be 1 or 2 outliers), the UK consistently scores amongst the very worst developed countries for income or wealth distribution and for social mobility.

Absolute worst is generally the US by the way.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:
	This has been a party political broadcast on behalf of the Conservative Party. Income inequality is only part of the equation - care to venture some stats on wealth inequality TC?

Not really, income inequality is easy to measure and gives a clear picture. There is data on what people earn and what their tax burden is which gives a fairly accurate picture. It's not perfect and there are other various factors involved in determining disposable income, however it is far more reliable than the calculation for wealth.

In calculating wealth, liabilities are offset against assets. This skews the data massively in a country that is as debt addicted as the UK is. If you have £5 pounds in the bank and nothing else, then according to wealth calculations you'll still be better off than the 10 million "poorest".

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:
	And what will happen under Johnson?

Likely more of the same? Certainly nothing that is as bad as what would happen under Jeremy Corbyn. The pound already dropped last night on news of the polls tightening. He is seen as a bigger threat to the economy than Brexit.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Likely more of the same? Certainly nothing that is as bad as what would happen under Jeremy Corbyn. The pound already dropped last night on news of the polls tightening. He is seen as a bigger threat to the economy than Brexit.

Ironically, if it hadn't been for Brexit, the country wouldn't be in this shitshow right now.

So at least you've come over to the dark side and agree that Brexit is bad for the economy.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Likely more of the same? Certainly nothing that is as bad as what would happen under Jeremy Corbyn. The pound already dropped last night on news of the polls tightening. He is seen as a bigger threat to the economy than Brexit.

But this is just speculation and opinion, no?