The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[cyrus]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	We buy more cars from Germany than reexport to the whole of the EU so the 10% tariff is unlikely. With the £ fall of 10% UK cars will cost the same in Europe & EU cars will cost 20% more in the UK. Looks like that won't happen as the EU car makers will have to swallow the currency loss to stay competitive. More like rolling on the floor crying than rubbing their hands.

They could just relocate, there's really no such thing as a "uk" car company anymore, apart from luxury and specialist brands.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	cyrus
	They could just relocate, there's really no such thing as a "uk" car company anymore, apart from luxury and specialist brands.

Why would they if their costs have fallen? Moving is not exactly cheap, they won't be able to get out of their lease obligations for many years & will remain liable against default even if they re-asign.

[bigblue2]

the brits will buy german cars regardless of any price increase, the same cannot be said or germans/french/itallians etc buying non home made brands

[cyrus]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Why would they if their costs have fallen? Moving is not exactly cheap, they won't be able to get out of their lease obligations for many years & will remain liable against default even if they re-asign.

There are still places where labour is cheaper, and it's not just the exchange rate, new trade deals have to replace the tariffless eu ones, why wait on uncertainty when you can be in place somewhere else.

[dodgyken]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	germans/french/itallians etc buying non home made brands

That's because they are all racists

(Note: If you are nationalist and English you are a racist. If you are nationalist and any other nationality - including Scottish and Welsh - then you are proud of your country.)

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Why would they if their costs have fallen? Moving is not exactly cheap, they won't be able to get out of their lease obligations for many years & will remain liable against default even if they re-asign.

520m potential customers as opposed to 70m is a pretty big draw. I would imagine they have nice complicated ownership structures that would allow them to fold a company or 2 and still carry on

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	the brits will buy german cars regardless of any price increase, the same cannot be said or germans/french/itallians etc buying non home made brands

If that was true the prices would already be higher in the UK, goods are priced at what the market will bear. This is very evident in CH on many items.
You may remember back in the 80's UK German cars were always about 20% more expensive in the UK than in Europe. BMW made 80% of it's world wide profits in the UK at the time. Those days are long gone.

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Why would they if their costs have fallen? Moving is not exactly cheap, they won't be able to get out of their lease obligations for many years & will remain liable against default even if they re-asign.

Fatman: But if they do move there will be a lot of inexpensive manufacturing locations available. I have a proposition for you. We could buy up the rights to the Reliant Motor Company, find a large shed, bring back the Robin and help make Britain great again!

[cyrus]

I'm sorry, but the plucky leavers idea that everyone is gonna give the uk great trade deals for "reasons" is idiotic, everything i've ever known about trade, is that if someone is in a weak position, you ****ing take advantage of it.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	If that was true the prices would already be higher in the UK, goods are priced at what the market will bear. This is very evident in CH on many items. You may remember back in the 80's UK German cars were always about 20% more expensive in the UK than in Europe. BMW made 80% of it's world wide profits in the UK at the time. Those days are long gone.

mainly due to EU rules on car companies having to sell UK residents RHD cars and honour warranties regardless of where you bought it, so I could order a RHD bmw from germany.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	Fatman: But if they do move there will be a lot of inexpensive manufacturing locations available. I have a proposition for you. We could buy up the rights to the Reliant Motor Company, find a large shed, bring back the Robin and help make Britain great again!

I would never invest in a car manufacture, Bank or airline. History shows that they will destroy shareholder capital faster than any other business model

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	cyrus
	I'm sorry, but the plucky leavers idea that everyone is gonna give the uk great trade deals for "reasons" is idiotic, everything i've ever known about trade, is that if someone is in a weak position, you ****ing take advantage of it.

Britain is in the stronger position, so yes you are correct they will take advantage of the fact.

[cyrus]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Britain is in the stronger position, so yes you are correct they will take advantage of the fact.

How so? What exactly puts britain in the stronger position? We import goods and export services.

edit: the pound just fell through the floor btw

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	So can anyone here (you are a much better educated bunch) give me a concrete plus for leaving?

But..but...the "sovereignty" mantra that was all over before the vote? I heard it: creates cash instantly, makes edu system that nobody invested in before automatically higher quality, fixes healthcare with no efforts and helps French Calais guys stop the mean illegal infiltrators already in France. Right? Isn't it what the news say now?

Unfortunately not. Things could have been fixed before and weren't. Nothing to do with EU. A few exiled, overqualified Polish plumbers, Czech doctors or Rumanian nurses pushed to re-evaluate their right to stay - won't change much. They secured their places by supreme edu and high working standards long time ago. The market is already oversaturated, nobody was really flooding in. If UK labor was not ready to face that competition, seclusion will not make it competitive enough, over night. Seclusion will make it not sovereign but dependent. The closed doors to edu boost through enlarged academic access and foreign unies will only penalize the local youth. Will not give their parents jobs, either, I think. It is naieve to think the small people will all of a sudden become important for politicians. I think they had more options before, whole EU was theirs if they felt like it. They got manipulated by the candy of populistic rhetorics.

The news from the traders this morning are harsh. Wows.

The British Ambassador gave some desperate "please, like us still" speech in Prague.

Not sure who's better off, tbh. It will not be the honest, hard working, little folks. They were ignored before and their anger got used to promote an agenda, with consequences not really in their favor.

To try to blame the EU for the domestic, local mess - is simply myopic. That attitude will not empower positive changes.

[MaleBuffy]

	Quote:	cyrus
	I'm sorry, but the plucky leavers idea that everyone is gonna give the uk great trade deals for "reasons" is idiotic, everything i've ever known about trade, is that if someone is in a weak position, you ****ing take advantage of it.

The question is...Who is in a week position?


About a fifth of all cars produced in Germany last year, or around 820,000 vehicles, were exported to the UK, making it the single biggest destination by volume.

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I would never invest in a car manufacture, Bank or airline. History shows that they will destroy shareholder capital faster than any other business model

What, faster than a national referendum?

[Stoker177]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	True, but in Ireland we made two important changes, ironically enough insisted upon by the British side during the treaty negotiations in 1922 - a written constitution and a sovereign people.

That is true...we didn't bother with a written constitution relying on the Magna Carta which was already several hundred years old by then and as our government was stable and the country democratic, we didn't see the need to change

[Chuff]

	Quote:	cyrus
	I'm sorry, but the plucky leavers idea that everyone is gonna give the uk great trade deals for "reasons" is idiotic, everything i've ever known about trade, is that if someone is in a weak position, you ****ing take advantage of it.

The UK is currently holding a lot of cards. The EU is engaging in a lot of bluster in an attempt to force the UK's hand because they know that every month the UK stays in the EU despite having held a referendum to leave is a PR disaster for them, a slap in their red faces. We are contesting their will, and autocrats like Juncker et al don't like that, as we have seen from their initial posturing and ill-advised comments.

Merkels reaction now calling for calm and saying "no rush" is a clear sign that she knows full well that the UK, as one of Europe's economic powerhouses, has the power to weaken the major EU economies as we are such a big consumer of French and German goods.

There is a crapton of scare-mongering going on, but in the end who is going to want to shoot themselves in the foot in order to "make an example" out of the UK? I would even argue that if the EU commission acts like a douchebag in this Brexit, then it will do them more damage than otherwise.

We are in the first few days after the referendum, we have not invoked Article 50 yet, and already people are panicking like we have one year left to secure our future before disaster looms.

Get a grip of yourselves and lets see how we are in a few months when the dust and initial outrage has settled and things become a little more normalised.

[Castro]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	the brits will buy german cars regardless of any price increase, the same cannot be said or germans/french/itallians etc buying non home made brands

We buy them because we can afford them, I just hope that continues to be the case.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	cyrus
	How so? What exactly puts britain in the stronger position? We import goods and export services. edit: the pound just fell through the floor btw

Britain buys more from the EU than it sells & has always done so.

A tiny currency move today, hardly fell through the floor , not that long ago the £ was almost at parity with the Euro you must have a short memory.