The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	The quote wasn’t minority (less than 50% of people are football fans as men make up slightly less than 50% of the population and some of them are gays - ho ho, just kidding) but a tiny minority. More people attend football every week than speak Welsh and Gaelic combined, for example.

My brothers wife has both Chelsea & Arsenal season tickets, often travels abroad for matches, you don't need to be a man to be a football fan.

Fairly low bar then, I suspect more people have the Surname Smith, Jones or Brown than watch football each week

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	My brothers wife has both Chelsea & Arsenal season tickets, often travels abroad for matches, you don't need to be a man to be a football fan. Fairly low bar then, I suspect more people have the Surname Smith, Jones or Brown than watch football each week

You don’t have to be a multi-season ticket holder for more than one premier side to be a football fan. Just sayin’

Or maybe that’s the set you mix with...

[greenmount]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	My brothers wife has both Chelsea & Arsenal season tickets, often travels abroad for matches, you don't need to be a man to be a football fan. Fairly low bar then, I suspect more people have the Surname Smith, Jones or Brown than watch football each week

Out of curiosity, how much does a season ticket cost? Not the best places, just some average prices.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Fairly low bar then, I suspect more people have the Surname Smith, Jones or Brown than watch football each week

You'd be wrong.
Approximately 500k people have the surname Smith in the UK, whereas the average attendance in the English Premier League alone averages 750k per week this season. https://www.worldfootball.net/attend...20/1/#redirect

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Out of curiosity, how much does a season ticket cost? Not the best places, just some average prices.

Only know my local team, Wigan Athletic, who charge £279 + 299 per adult season ticket, and that's because my brother has one. The details for other teams for the current 2019/20 season are here https://www.goal.com/en/lists/premie...u1o7j34uob2rhu

[TonyClifton]

It is going to be very interesting to see how the Brexit negotiations now develop. I think the EU are going to realise fairly soon what an error they made in undermining Theresa May’s premiership and actively colluding with UK Remainers in order to try and reverse the Brexit vote. Although not to blame, they have contributed to the strong domestic position that Boris Johnson is now in, and will now see how this affects the dynamic of the next round of negotiations.

In fact, it is the EU that now has some very tough decisions to make: Do they push ahead with a “Versailles” deal, or do they take a more cordial approach? The risk if they choose the former is clear. Boris Johnson doesn’t need to worry about convincing Parliament anymore, so it will be far easier to push the blame over to the EU should talks start to stall and walk away from the table. Meanwhile waiting in the wings is the USA with a President whose stated aim is to drive a wedge between the UK and the EU. Does the EU want to risk pushing the UK into the US’s orbit? I doubt it.

Meanwhile I expect the UK to make swift progress in striking trade deals with other first world nations. The commonwealth countries first: Australia, New Zealand, Canada and then maybe perhaps move on to Japan. If the UK shows early signs of success here, I believe it would start to focus EU minds. More concerning for the EU would be if the UK makes rapid progress with the US, it should not be forgotten that these talks will all be going on in parallel to the EU trade negotiations. If the UK and US strike a deal first then that could have profound consequences for any unsigned treaty between the EU and UK.

Will this all mean that the EU takes a more pragmatic approach? I don't believe so. The EU is a bureaucratic mess that is run by bureaucrats, who value ideology over geopolitical reality. The EU are also now without their own problems that they will have to confront in 2020. Whilst the UK was a moaning member, she did at least follow the EU rules, in a way that the likes of Poland, Italy, Malta, Ireland, Hungary, Greece etc. have not. The EU has still yet to find an effective way to deal with Poland and Hungary and their flouting of EU rules. There is also the matter of the EU long term budget, and how the large UK shaped hole will be plugged by the remaining member states. There will certainly be some heated discussions when this comes up for negotiation!

Things are nicely poised now for 2020, Boris Johnson has a strong hand and is the European leader with the longest term of office ahead of him. It will be fascinating to see how things pan out. One thing that I’m pretty certain of though is that Brexit will end up changing the EU far more than had the UK remained a member, which will ironically be better for the remaining member states!

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	One thing that I’m pretty certain of though is that Brexit will end up changing the EU far more than had the UK remained a member,

	Quote:	Blueangel

I like the bit about things being nicely poised for 2020. Is going to be a car crash.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	. ......Meanwhile waiting in the wings is the USA with a President whose stated aim is to drive a wedge between the UK and the EU. Does the EU want to risk pushing the UK into the US’s orbit? I doubt it. ................More concerning for the EU would be if the UK makes rapid progress with the US, it should not be forgotten that these talks will all be going on in parallel to the EU trade negotiations. If the UK and US strike a deal first then that could have profound consequences for any unsigned treaty between the EU and UK.

The elephant in this room is that the US Congress has to approve any trade deal.

	Quote:
	There is no chance the U.S. Congress would approve a planned U.S.-British trade deal if Britain’s exit from the European Union undermines the landmark 1998 Good Friday peace agreement for Northern Ireland, House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said.

So there is no possibility of the US approving a trade deal with the UK before Britain’s exit deal from the European Union is agreed AND ratified, hence the impact on the 1998 Good Friday peace agreement is known, evaluated and committed. So a potential US deal cannot be used to pressure the EU because the EU deal has to be completed first.
If you think this is unlikely then be aware Nancy Pelosi has delayed approval of small changes to NAFTA deal for over a year.

As to a fast deal with Commonwealth countries

	Quote:
	What would be the rush, Canadian officials reasoned, of offering to let the concessions they'd made to Europe stand, if a desperate U.K. was already planning, at least for a transition period, to offer the entire world low- or no-tariff access to its market, without requiring any preferential treatment in return?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	The elephant in this room is that the US Congress has to approve any trade deal.

There is also the "man child" who wants to win the popular vote in November.... 30m Irish-American voters will play an important part in that... And just as they have in the times of Clinton and Obama, there are a lot of Irish politicians intending to take autumn holidays in the Sates and while they are there they will be saying a "few words" at Irish centres in each state ;-)

The only way Boris can get it done quickly, is if he accepts what ever terms are dictated to him by the major trade blocks and that he tosses NI under that bus of his.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Blueangel

Laugh if you wish. The fact of the matter is that many member states have been happy to ignore most of what comes out of the EU apart from the free money. Article 7 has proven to be insufficient at getting such countries to play by the rules. Now a good chunk of the free cash is about to dry up. Watch what effect this has on the EU.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	marton
	The elephant in this room is that the US Congress has to approve any trade deal. So there is no possibility of the US approving a trade deal with the UK before Britain’s exit deal from the European Union is agreed AND ratified, hence the impact on the 1998 Good Friday peace agreement is known, evaluated and committed. So a potential US deal cannot be used to pressure the EU because the EU deal has to be completed first. If you think this is unlikely then be aware Nancy Pelosi has delayed approval of small changes to NAFTA deal for over a year. As to a fast deal with Commonwealth countries

Those comments on tariffs were made by the previous government as the prospect of a no deal Brexit loomed large. There is now a new government in position who have very different and more ambitious aims to that of Mrs May’s government.

Also regarding the Good Friday Agreement, the withdrawal agreement due to be signed in January will preserve the open border whatever the outcome of trade negotiations. There will be no way this will be used as an excuse to hinder UK-US talks (I don’t actually believe it would have any effect regardless).

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Laugh if you wish. The fact of the matter is that many member states have been happy to ignore most of what comes out of the EU apart from the free money. Article 7 has proven to be insufficient at getting such countries to play by the rules. Now a good chunk of the free cash is about to dry up. Watch what effect this has on the EU.

All of this is just your opinion biased by your own views of the EU. There’s nothing fact-based or even rooted in any kind of substance. It’s just shrill soundbites.

10 or so pages ago you were lamenting that departing the EU would be almost as terrible as a Corbyn government so maybe you should have a quick trawl back through your past posts before flapping your flag in the opposite direction a few pages later.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	It is going to be very interesting to see how the Brexit negotiations now develop. I think the EU are going to realise fairly soon what an error they made in undermining Theresa May’s premiership and actively colluding with UK Remainers in order to try and reverse the Brexit vote. Although not to blame, they have contributed to the strong domestic position that Boris Johnson is now in, and will now see how this affects the dynamic of the next round of negotiations. In fact, it is the EU that now has some very tough decisions to make: Do they push ahead with a “Versailles” deal, or do they take a more cordial approach? The risk if they choose the former is clear. Boris Johnson doesn’t need to worry about convincing Parliament anymore, so it will be far easier to push the blame over to the EU should talks start to stall and walk away from the table. Meanwhile waiting in the wings is the USA with a President whose stated aim is to drive a wedge between the UK and the EU. Does the EU want to risk pushing the UK into the US’s orbit? I doubt it. Meanwhile I expect the UK to make swift progress in striking trade deals with other first world nations. The commonwealth countries first: Australia, New Zealand, Canada and then maybe perhaps move on to Japan. If the UK shows early signs of success here, I believe it would start to focus EU minds. More concerning for the EU would be if the UK makes rapid progress with the US, it should not be forgotten that these talks will all be going on in parallel to the EU trade negotiations. If the UK and US strike a deal first then that could have profound consequences for any unsigned treaty between the EU and UK. Will this all mean that the EU takes a more pragmatic approach? I don't believe so. The EU is a bureaucratic mess that is run by bureaucrats, who value ideology over geopolitical reality. The EU are also now without their own problems that they will have to confront in 2020. Whilst the UK was a moaning member, she did at least follow the EU rules, in a way that the likes of Poland, Italy, Malta, Ireland, Hungary, Greece etc. have not. The EU has still yet to find an effective way to deal with Poland and Hungary and their flouting of EU rules. There is also the matter of the EU long term budget, and how the large UK shaped hole will be plugged by the remaining member states. There will certainly be some heated discussions when this comes up for negotiation! Things are nicely poised now for 2020, Boris Johnson has a strong hand and is the European leader with the longest term of office ahead of him. It will be fascinating to see how things pan out. One thing that I’m pretty certain of though is that Brexit will end up changing the EU far more than had the UK remained a member, which will ironically be better for the remaining member states!

OK tavarisci Tony, you're repeating yourself. We know what your position is. Anything new on the Eastern front?
How's Putina? Still into young gymnasts of his daughter's age?

[TonyClifton]

I think another important factor in the upcoming negotiations is Boris Johnson himself. His demeanor and positive attitude could work in his favour in helping the UK to secure a decent trading arrangement. He certainly won’t enter discussions in a confrontational manner, and I think it is good that he has set the deadline of the end of 2020 to have them concluded. It shows that he believes speed of negotiations is a political variable that can be sped up if there is a willingness to do so.

Due to Mr Johnson’s strong domestic position, I don’t expect to see him falling for any of the traps that Mrs May’s negotiating team did. For example if the EU requests to sequence the negotiation of goods before moving onto services, he will flat out refuse. This is where the EU should (purely from a pragmatic perspective) be careful. Any unreasonable demands could just lead to Mr Johnson walking away from negotiations safe in the knowledge that he has a parliamentary majority and four more years before the next election.

The UK also has to hope that the EU Council plays more of a role in the upcoming negotiations, however on past form there is little chance of this. The big risk is that the dogmatic EU Commission, whose negotiations are to continue to be led by Monsieur Barnier, who is likely bitter at having been overlooked for the key EU positions in the current parliament, pursue a punishment treaty that will end up pushing Boris Johnson away. So many possible outcomes!

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Laugh if you wish. The fact of the matter is ...

The fact of the matter is that your statement was rambling nonsense. If you have a group and remove one of that group, does the group remain the same? Of course it doesn't! An infant would know that!
Your cut and paste gobbledygook supplier needs a new author because your posts are becoming increasingly transparent.

Hark! Can you hear writers at bot central getting a right royal bollocking?

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	My brothers wife has both Chelsea & Arsenal season tickets, often travels abroad for matches, you don't need to be a man to be a football fan.

If you have a season ticket for two different teams then you aren't a fan, just a tourist.

[greenmount]

	Quote:
	If you have a season ticket for two different teams then you aren't a fan, just a tourist.

Maybe you really love the game itself. Or you just want to be....seen/admired/etc.? You know, some go to the Opera - for instance - just for that...

	Quote:	greenmount
	Maybe you really love the game itself. Or you just want to be....seen/admired/etc.? You know, some go to the Opera - for instance - just for that...

Given they are the most expensive season tickets in the league, I'll let you decide Arsenal's cheapest is £1000.

[SOBEIT]

Can’t stop smiling, I love it when a plan comes together.