The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	You'd be wrong. Approximately 500k people have the surname Smith in the UK, whereas the average attendance in the English Premier League alone averages 750k per week this season. https://www.worldfootball.net/attend...20/1/#redirect

Actually not if you add people with Surname Brown & Jones to the 500K Smiths it would exceed the 750k you talk about.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Actually not if you add people with Surname Brown & Jones to the 500K Smiths it would exceed the 750k you talk about.

Pity that your proverbial goal posts were otherwise then

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Fairly low bar then, I suspect more people have the Surname Smith, Jones or Brown than watch football each week

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Pity that your proverbial goal posts were otherwise then

750.000 in total as some sort of majority of people living in the UK, thats quite funny when the BREXIT vote had over a 1,000,000 more leave votes than remain & most of those changed their minds but still voted Tory

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	750.000 in total ...

Not in total at all. That 750,000 is just the average number who attend English Premier League matches each week so far this season. There are a number of other leagues to consider.

[TonyClifton]

Just as I put my thoughts down on the challenges the EU faces next year, the Guardian newspaper has printed an article that highlights this (I’ve linked to it below). Due to the gaping hole left by the UK’s departure, they are already having to look where cuts have to be made.

As certain member states that have spent their entire membership receiving money from the EU are expected to pay more in, I expect to see an increase in euroskepticism from these countries. I doubt this will lead them to leave in the same way as the UK has (the embarrassing and very public disaster of the last 3.5 years is enough to put anyone off!) however I do expect to see an increase in disruption from these states from within the EU. For the EU this could be even worse than if they were to just leave!

With the strong leadership the UK now has, there shouldn’t be any problem in telling the EU exactly what she wants, as has been the case for the last three and a half years. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that Brexit actually becomes the sideshow in 2020 to the real issues the EU faces in holding together a fragile Union from the challenges it faces from within.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...t-cost-savings

[greenmount]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Just as I put my thoughts down on the challenges the EU faces next year, the Guardian newspaper has printed an article that highlights this (I’ve linked to it below). Due to the gaping hole left by the UK’s departure, they are already having to look where cuts have to be made. As certain member states that have spent their entire membership receiving money from the EU are expected to pay more in, I expect to see an increase in euroskepticism from these countries. I doubt this will lead them to leave in the same way as the UK has (the embarrassing and very public disaster of the last 3.5 years is enough to put anyone off!) however I do expect to see an increase in disruption from these states from within the EU. For the EU this could be even worse than if they were to just leave! With the strong leadership the UK now has, there shouldn’t be any problem in telling the EU exactly what she wants, as has been the case for the last three and a half years. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that Brexit actually becomes the sideshow in 2020 to the real issues the EU faces in holding together a fragile Union from the challenges it faces from within. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...t-cost-savings

The so-called "euroscepticism" is already a bit of a phenomenon in various forms or degrees almost everywhere across EU - so rest assured there's a relative dose of criticism pretty much everywhere. However, it's mostly restricted to certain demographics and the kind of politicians who want to capitalise on this sort of stuff and who, surprise surprise, are otherwise incapable of offering any solutions to any current problems. So nothing will really change in these terms. I can see "disruptions" from countries like Italy or Spain who are not very happy to comply with EU's financial and budgetary policies, but they'll come around...once they will be reminded they're far worse outside EU.

But how sweet of you to worry so much about EU and the effects of Brexit. And about everyone else, really.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Not in total at all. That 750,000 is just the average number who attend English Premier League matches each week so far this season. There are a number of other leagues to consider.

The other classic non football fan sign - one who believes that the premier league is the only show in town.

As you say, hundreds of games outside the PL take place every weekend too, indeed there are a further 36 games in the football league alone.

According to the FA, over 8m people al in the UK are involved in playing football at some level...

http://www.thefa.com/news/2015/jan/2...pation-on-rise

You can bet the vast majority of those are fans too.

	Quote:
	The other classic non football fan sign - one who believes that the premier league is the only show in town. As you say, hundreds of games outside the PL take place every weekend too, indeed there are a further 36 games in the football league alone. According to the FA, over 8m people al in the UK are involved in playing football at some level... http://www.thefa.com/news/2015/jan/2...pation-on-rise You can bet the vast majority of those are fans too.

Reminds me of David Cameron and his now famous inability to decide if he was an Aston Villa fan or a West Ham fan.

Although in his defence, at least he appreciated that showing a modicum of interest in footie might win him votes given its popularity in the UK. Rather than seeing it as an interest held by ‘a tiny majority’.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	greenmount
	The so-called "euroscepticism" is already a bit of a phenomenon in various forms or degrees almost everywhere across EU - so rest assured there's a relative dose of criticism pretty much everywhere.

There is criticism and a desire for change in every member state, but there is very little ‘scepticicism’ in most states. The EU has changed dramatically over the past 40 years and will do so going forward, but most likely not in a direction that BREXITEERS would like.

One area that is likely to see big change is the defense industry. A key feature of what the BREXITEERS refer to as the European Army is coordinated logistics and with the EU being the biggest spender on military hardware next to the US, I expect that will have a big impact on the Industry.

	Quote:
	Reminds me of David Cameron and his now famous inability to decide if he was an Aston Villa fan or a West Ham fan. Although in his defence, at least he appreciated that showing a modicum of interest in footie might win him votes given its popularity in the UK. Rather than seeing it as an interest held by ‘a tiny majority’.

To be fair, both Villa and the Hammers play in claret and blue.

It's an easy mistake to make if you've never watched a minute's football in your life.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	greenmount
	The so-called "euroscepticism" is already a bit of a phenomenon in various forms or degrees almost everywhere across EU - so rest assured there's a relative dose of criticism pretty much everywhere. However, it's mostly restricted to certain demographics and the kind of politicians who want to capitalise on this sort of stuff and who, surprise surprise, are otherwise incapable of offering any solutions to any current problems. So nothing will really change in these terms. I can see "disruptions" from countries like Italy or Spain who are not very happy to comply with EU's financial and budgetary policies, but they'll come around...once they will be reminded they're far worse outside EU. But how sweet of you to worry so much about EU and the effects of Brexit. And about everyone else, really.

They won’t come around as they already know they would be worse off outside the EU, they won’t come around because there is no effective mechanism the EU has for dealing with disruptive states! Article 7 simply doesn’t work, this means states can ignore EU rules and the worst that they can get is a slap on the wrist.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	There is criticism and a desire for change in every member state, but there is very little ‘scepticicism’ in most states. The EU has changed dramatically over the past 40 years and will do so going forward, but most likely not in a direction that BREXITEERS would like. One area that is likely to see big change is the defense industry. A key feature of what the BREXITEERS refer to as the European Army is coordinated logistics and with the EU being the biggest spender on military hardware next to the US, I expect that will have a big impact on the Industry.

I’m afraid this couldn’t be further from the truth. There is little consensus with in bloc on how to address economic challenges and what role the EU should play on the global stage as well as well as the direction the judiciary is taking in certain member states. The more the EU commission forces it’s agenda, the more resistance and disruption it shall see. This will begin with the EU budget negotiations and I expect will get more challenging in the next 24 months.

[curley]

marton, look what you wrote back in 2013

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Those comments on tariffs were made by the previous government as the prospect of a no deal Brexit loomed large. There is now a new government in position who have very different and more ambitious aims to that of Mrs May’s government. Also regarding the Good Friday Agreement, the withdrawal agreement due to be signed in January will preserve the open border whatever the outcome of trade negotiations. There will be no way this will be used as an excuse to hinder UK-US talks (I don’t actually believe it would have any effect regardless).

It may well be that "Those comments on tariffs were made by the previous government" but they are certainly believed by the Canadians who have now withdrawn from UK trade deal negotiations.

You may not want to believe the statement by the US Speaker Nancy Pelosi but I do. On 4th December 2019 US Congress approved

	Quote:
	A resolution outlining support for the Good Friday Agreement as US support for Ireland in the face of Brexit continues to grow. The resolution on the Good Friday Agreement also warns that a trade deal between the United States and Britain could be in jeopardy if the principles of the peace process are undermined. “The Congress also insisted that any new [US] trade deal with Britain must be contingent on meeting the obligations of the Good Friday Agreement including the continued incorporation into law of the European Convention on Human Rights.”

Seems this was another fact-free post from you.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	You may not want to believe the statement by the US Speaker Nancy Pelosi but I do. On 4th December 2019 US Congress approved

Ah now, fair play to poor Tony, he is right it won’t hinder trade talks nor the conclusion of a trade deal, but just like the Trump’s Canadian deal it will just sit there unapproved.

And I see the EU’s Trade Commissioner, Big Phil, home for the holidays in Ireland has said Boris will have to break his promise and ask for another extension because no deal will be done in 2020 unless Boris accepts all the terms and conditions set out by the EU.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	marton
	It may well be that "Those comments on tariffs were made by the previous government" but they are certainly believed by the Canadians who have now withdrawn from UK trade deal negotiations. You may not want to believe the statement by the US Speaker Nancy Pelosi but I do. On 4th December 2019 US Congress approved Seems this was another fact-free post from you.

Nancy Pelosi isn’t going to be around for much longer, and she is anyhow preoccupied with the crazy impeachment that will see her party lose the election next year. Pulling my hair out over that one but that’s another story!

You have either missed the point, or simply have chosen to ignore that the Good Friday Agreement is not under threat as soon as the withdrawal agreement is signed next month. Congress will have no reason to block a potential trade deal on those grounds!

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	There is criticism and a desire for change in every member state, but there is very little ‘scepticicism’ in most states. The EU has changed dramatically over the past 40 years and will do so going forward, but most likely not in a direction that BREXITEERS would like. .

I think you're right. I used that term because some people seem to like it soo much...

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Nancy Pelosi isn’t going to be around for much longer, and she is anyhow preoccupied with the crazy impeachment that will see her party lose the election next year. Pulling my hair out over that one but that’s another story! You have either missed the point, or simply have chosen to ignore that the Good Friday Agreement is not under threat as soon as the withdrawal agreement is signed next month. Congress will have no reason to block a potential trade deal on those grounds!

You miss the point that Nancy will be around a long time

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	You miss the point that Nancy will be around a long time

I really hope for her, as she is 79.

[John William]

	Quote:	marton
	You miss the point that Nancy will be around a long time

And there's still a big majority of anti-Trump Democrats in the Senate no matter whether Nancy stays
or goes, who have the bit between their teeth, now that Impeachments taken off.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	You miss the point that Nancy will be around a long time

Tony does not understand much about US politics... it would be very hard to find any US politician on either side that would vote for anything that endangers the Good Friday agreement, there are too many votes in it to be branded the politician that cause things to kick off again in NI.