The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Medea Fleecestealer]

My feeling is Britain's never been that happy being a member of the EU. I think we were okay-ish with the idea of a common market which we decided to join, but have never really considered ourselves to be part of Europe. We're an island nation, apart from the mainland and that's the way we like it. The increasing closeness that seems to be coming out of Brussels is against our nature.

The other problem too is the lack of coverage of what happens in the European parliament. Yes, we've got some MEP's, but apart from Farage can you name any? (No Wiki-ing!) Do we hear anything in the news about their doings in the Parliament, what bills are being tabled, what decisions are being made by our elected representatives that will affect us? I don't know for sure but believe there's more coverage in other EU countries and that makes them feel more involved in the whole EU idea. We hear nothing, apart from election time and have no idea or interest in what's going on there. We feel we're on the fringe of Europe literally and figuratively and would rather not bother any more, so let's get out while we have the chance.

	Quote:	zurich99
	ouch! Taken from the Telegraph - Guy Verhofstadt, the leader of the liberal bloc who is an old-school believer in the United States of Europe and is allied to the Lib Dems, says "I may not know the result of the referendum, but I am sure this will not reunite the Tories. Because it is now about personal ambitions of two men. A glorified cockfight. With Boris Johnson challenging David Cameron." He goes on: "It's "totally bonkers". "It is pathetic for Britain. The Pound is rapidly falling. The unity of the UK is being threatened. And their American cousins say 'stop it', we will not make a trade deal with you outside the Union. The ‘special relationship’ between UK and the US is not so special any more. " He warns there will be no new renegotiation after a "no" vote and that a vote to leave would "only help people like Vladimir Putin and Bashar Al-Assad". "Those who stand to lose the most from this referendum are ordinary British citizens. They see their currency endangered, their country alienated from the US, their Great Britain transformed into nothing more than little England."

Who cares what this dice toothed shitpuffin has to say? He just loves the EU so much because it gives relevance to his country, which would only be known for chocolate and Jean Claude Van Damme otherwise.

He's just scare mongering. The USA would make a deal with Britain as would the rest of Europe. Little England he says? I'll take that. Far better than insignificant Belgium.

The EU is finished. Brexit or no Brexit, it won't be around in 10 years time. A combination of the economic crisis it faces, and the migrant crisis will see to that. As soon as Schengen gets scrapped, the Euro becomes pointless. Brexit would just hasten this process. Denmark would go, then Holland, then maybe a few eastern European states until all that's left is Germany supporting Club Med.

[Sbrinz]

Loz, you sound just like Guy Verhofstadt

There really is little difference, absolutely no substance, where do you get such ridiculous ideas?

[Belgianmum]

Bah who in their right minds would listen to a twerp like Guy Verhofstadt.

[Kosti]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	As soon as Schengen gets scrapped, the Euro becomes pointless.

Ummm ... WHY?

	Quote:	Kosti
	Ummm ... WHY?

I'll let Supreme Leader Junker answer that one for you:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...schengen-fails

https://euobserver.com/migration/131265

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Loz, you sound just like Guy Verhofstadt There really is little difference, absolutely no substance, where do you get such ridiculous ideas?

The difference is I'm not an EU politicians. I spout my opinions on internet forums. And, unlike mole rat Verhofstadt, there is reason behind what I say.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Who cares what this dice toothed shitpuffin has to say? He just loves the EU so much because it gives relevance to his country, which would only be known for chocolate and Jean Claude Van Damme otherwise.

I thought you were going to mention Dutroux.

But that's unfair as actually I like Belgium a lot, and it's not the Belgians' fault that the EU is out of control.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	He's just scare mongering. The USA would make a deal with Britain as would the rest of Europe. Little England he says? I'll take that. Far better than insignificant Belgium.

Scaremongering, and bullying. When Dubya Bush said "if you're not with us you're against us" there was widespread hissing among the liberal establishment. Where is that indignation now?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The EU is finished. Brexit or no Brexit, it won't be around in 10 years time. A combination of the economic crisis it faces, and the migrant crisis will see to that. As soon as Schengen gets scrapped, the Euro becomes pointless. Brexit would just hasten this process. Denmark would go, then Holland, then maybe a few eastern European states until all that's left is Germany supporting Club Med.

Germany is really doing everything in its power right now to lose as many allies as possible. Their treatment of Hungary and Poland is totally insensitive for example, and Merkel isn't too popular in Greece or Spain either. But its not stopping there as even the Dutch are beginning to get fed up with Germany. Germany seems to have lost track of Europe being about all of us together and thinks its all about everybody doing things the Germany way or b#ggering off..

Germany totally fails to understand that for many European nations, the image of a harsh, bullying and intolerant Germany wakes very unpleasant memories.

	Quote:	amogles
	But that's unfair as actually I like Belgium a lot, and it's not the Belgians' fault that the EU is out of control.

I've nothing against the Belgians, just against politicians of the Low Countries when they make thinly veiled attacks on the UK based around their own insecurity over the EU's strength.

Another example, Holland PM Mark Rutte, last year he said exit from the EU would mean the UK became:

“a mid-sized economy in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, in neither America nor Europe.”


I'd HAPPILY take that.

[lewton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I've nothing against the Belgians, just against politicians of the Low Countries when they make thinly veiled attacks on the UK based around their own insecurity over the EU's strength. Another example, Holland PM Mark Rutte, last year he said exit from the EU would mean the UK became: “a mid-sized economy in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, in neither America nor Europe.” I'd HAPPILY take that.

You'd happily take that and move there or take that from your apartment in Zurich?

[Kosti]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I'll let Supreme Leader Junker answer that one for you: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...schengen-fails https://euobserver.com/migration/131265 The difference is I'm not an EU politicians. I spout my opinions on internet forums. And, unlike mole rat Verhofstadt, there is reason behind what I say.

I ask you why you think the end of Schengen and the Euro ending are related, and your "reason" is that JUNCKER says so?

Then in the next line you claim to differentiate yourself from a EU politician since there is reason behind what you say? But didn`t you just cite one as a "reason"?

I think supreme leader Juncker is just fearmongering to stave off the inevitable changes coming in the Schengen accords as a result of the migrant crisis, by linking it to the Euro.

So despite the amazing "reason" you have provided I don`t think additional checks at borders will do one damn thing that affects the Euro. Most EU countries, including those don`t use the Euro, anyway have visa free travel to one another irrespective of Schengen.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The EU is finished. Brexit or no Brexit, it won't be around in 10 years time.

Look we've been hear those kind of statements for the past 40 years and yet it is still there. The fact is that the EU has been severely tested over that last several years and it has not come a part as you seem to wish. And I seriously doubt if it will in the next decade either. If anything the Euro Group will strengthen in the coming years and there may well be two tier membership only time will tell.

	Quote:	Kosti
	I ask you why you think the end of Schengen and the Euro ending are related, and your "reason" is that JUNCKER says so?

He's not wrong though. What would be the point in a single currency if the borders are shut?

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Look we've been hear those kind of statements for the past 40 years and yet it is still there. The fact is that the EU has been severely tested over that last several years and it has not come a part as you seem to wish. And I seriously doubt if it will in the next decade either. If anything the Euro Group will strengthen in the coming years and there may well be two tier membership only time will tell.

I'm sure the same was said about the Roman Empire. Greece recalled their ambassador from Austria over the migrant crisis today. A meeting was held between the Balkan states without an EU invitation to discuss the same thing. The cracks are already there, Europe as we know it is finished.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	He's not wrong though. What would be the point in a single currency if the borders are shut? I'm sure the same was said about the Roman Empire. Greece recalled their ambassador from Austria over the migrant crisis today. A meeting was held between the Balkan states without an EU invitation to discuss the same thing. The cracks are already there, Europe as we know it is finished.

"What would be the point in a single currency if the borders are shut? " But they are not shut? People with the correct documents pass through as usual.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Look we've been hear those kind of statements for the past 40 years and yet it is still there. The fact is that the EU has been severely tested over that last several years and it has not come a part as you seem to wish. And I seriously doubt if it will in the next decade either. If anything the Euro Group will strengthen in the coming years and there may well be two tier membership only time will tell.

Right on cue. Read and understand, this could happen.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/i...tain-to-leave/

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	He's not wrong though. What would be the point in a single currency if the borders are shut? I'm sure the same was said about the Roman Empire. Greece recalled their ambassador from Austria over the migrant crisis today. A meeting was held between the Balkan states without an EU invitation to discuss the same thing. The cracks are already there, Europe as we know it is finished.

Even with closed borders, cross-border business will keep being done. With multiple currencies this entails currency risk, a risk not present within a single-currency area. Every risk (covering it, rather) increases costs.

Implementing Just-In-Time with cross-border supply lines would suffer a major blow from closing borders as it can be no longer assumed that spare parts and urgent deliveries won't need to wait at the border. This increases risk of extended downtimes, which in turn increases costs, which of course must be paid by each of us.

Schengen devoloped largely independent of the Euro (which in turn was introduced 1999/2001 IIRC). Schengen started in 1985, the base of todays Schengen became effective 1995 in the form of the Schengen Convention and wasn't incorporated into EU law until in 1997, before which time Schengen development happened outside of EU (EWU then) structures and institutions.

While Schengen and a common currency reinforce one anothers' effects Junckers statement makes no sense.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	He's not wrong though. What would be the point in a single currency if the borders are shut?

There's no point to the single currency even if borders are open.

Even at the time, it was known to make no economic sense. It was purely a step towards fiscal union, but as the Greece crisis showed, countries such as Germany were not really prepared to be in a fiscal union with Greece and accept all the economic downsides that would come with it.

[Odile]

I remember a group of German businessmen coming to speak to our German studying 6th Formers, via the Chamber of Commerce (in the UK) - about the value of learning German.

And the message was clear- 'we will speak perfect English to sell to YOU - but if you want to persuade us to buy YOUR (British) products rather than someone else's - we do expect you to do this in German'. I think the same will apply if the UK comes out of Europe. Europe will continue to want to SELL TO THE UK, but not necessarily to BUY FROM IT.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Odile
	I remember a group of German businessmen coming to speak to our German studying 6th Formers, via the Chamber of Commerce (in the UK) - about the value of learning German. And the message was clear- 'we will speak perfect English to sell to YOU - but if you want to persuade us to buy YOUR (British) products rather than someone else's - we do expect you to do this in German'. I think the same will apply if the UK comes out of Europe. Europe will continue to want to SELL TO THE UK, but not necessarily to BUY FROM IT.

Bravo!

The industry I come from would collapse without it's European multi-lingual staff because British schools simply don't churn out candidates who are fluent in anything other than English, and some are barely that.

In one of our offices, of 115 staff, only 6 were fluent in a second language, 5 of whom were European migrants. In my last office, one of the teams had about 80% multi-lingual staff, the vast majority of whom were European migrants.

When I think that my grandfather spoke 6 languages, my great-uncle 16 languages and dialects, and my OH 5 languages (3 of them completely fluently), I'm ashamed that I only speak one fluently and can get by in a further 4.

Does anyone see any sign of the government investing in languages at school level?

I'm utterly convinced that leaving the EU would be a huge step backwards for the UK on so many levels that it beggars belief that anyone would consider it. Isolation is exactly that.

You can't change something and have a say if you're not even at the table.

[NomadAmericano]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Bravo! The industry I come from would collapse without it's European multi-lingual staff because British schools simply don't churn out candidates who are fluent in anything other than English, and some are barely that. In one of our offices, of 115 staff, only 6 were fluent in a second language, 5 of whom were European migrants. In my last office, one of the teams had about 80% multi-lingual staff, the vast majority of whom were European migrants. When I think that my grandfather spoke 6 languages, my great-uncle 16 languages and dialects, and my OH 5 languages (3 of them completely fluently), I'm ashamed that I only speak one fluently and can get by in a further 4. Does anyone see any sign of the government investing in languages at school level? I'm utterly convinced that leaving the EU would be a huge step backwards for the UK on so many levels that it beggars belief that anyone would consider it. Isolation is exactly that. You can't change something and have a say if you're not even at the table.

I don't have the same level of concern with your valid point re language skills. There's nothing stopping a post-Brexit UK from allowing in non-UK workers with foreign language skills. The EU will not ban such workers from emigrating.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	I think FMOP is a red herring. I think the most likely scenarios would be that the UK would still have the same FMOP obligations, in fact all the obligations under acquis communautaire. An alternative would be to push for a FTA with the EU - though I remain sceptical as to whether this would leave the UK in a better position than if it were in the single market. I think FTA is the position advocated by UKIP. To be honest, the whole sorry Brexit issue just shows what a pigs ear the UK has made of the EU. It has totally failed to push through a liberalisation of the market for services which would be of great benefit to the UK (and would be unlikely to do so outside the single market) and that idiot Tony Blair to rub salt in the wound gave up part of the rebate and got nothing in return losing over £10bn just in the first few years. On top of that we agreed to QMV and lost veto powers. Were our politicians on drugs when they destroyed our power and negotiating position in the EU?

The elephant in the room is the single common market with common standards. If Britain votes to leave then it will be very hard plus take a very long time to find a decent replacement trading deal for our exports.

Take a look at the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) which is one of the most ambitious free trade agreements ever. So for those who think the EU takes away UK sovereignty look at TPP clauses like "it paves the way for companies to sue governments that change policy on, say, health and education to favour state-provided services".
Plus it took 7 years to negotiate