The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Stoker177]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Yadda yadda... Windsor is overwhelmingly Conservative. Scum like bnp don't even stand.

BNP do stand........but we are too sensible to elect them.

[Stoker177]

	Quote:	SOBEIT
	No chance, he has ginger hair.

Bit racist isn't it?

[cyrus]

	Quote:	Chuff
	The UK is currently holding a lot of cards. The EU is engaging in a lot of bluster in an attempt to force the UK's hand because they know that every month the UK stays in the EU despite having held a referendum to leave is a PR disaster for them. Merkels reaction now calling for calm and saying "no rush" is a clear sign that she knows full well that the UK, as one of Europe's economic powerhouses, has the power to weaken the major EU economies. There is a crapton of scare-mongering going on, but in the end who is going to want to shoot themselves in the foot in order to "make an example" out of the UK? I would even argue that if the EU commission acts like a douchebag in this Brexit, then it will do them more damage than otherwise. We are in the first few days after the referendum, we have not invoked Article 50 yet, and already people are panicking like we have one year left to secure our future before disaster looms. Get a grip of yourselves.

What cards? I hear people say that stuff but it's very vague, i think it's a house of cards built on a long past colonial britain, and we've been building it for years, the eu helped us prop it up.

As a techie, i know the generation that worked with bbc's, comodores and spectrums has long been replaced by courses in ms office while other countries invested in engineers.

[Chuff]

	Quote:	cyrus
	What cards?

Are you purposefully not reading replies and repeating the same questions?

[cyrus]

	Quote:	Chuff
	Are you purposefully not reading replies and repeating the same questions?

I must have missed them somewhere among my counterpoints

[Chuff]

	Quote:	cyrus
	I must have missed them somewhere among my counterpoints

Ok, sure, then I'll leave you to your monologues.

Brexit is NOT a trade embargo. Business will go on, albeit with more paperwork. We should see more diversification in Europe because of Brexit. The UK will be more free to trade with whomever it wants. In fact, they will have to.

Brexit is a more arduous path that remaining. The UK will need to hustle and work. This is what determines whether the UK will sink or swim. If they don't work, they suffer. If they do work, the rewards are much higher than what they could have gained remaining in the EU.

[cyrus]

	Quote:	Chuff
	Ok, sure, then I'll leave you to your monologues.

No comeback then?

Tbh, it's been a long time coming, i can't blame the leave vote as a protest vote because while we got houses and gadgets thanks to the thatcher-reagan economic miracle, it's alll been paid for by debt for everyone but those who enjoy the economic miracle.

The eu was one thing that stood in its way, the uk will still suffer austerity because austerity is what british politicians wanted, the eu didn't force their hand.

[MidfieldGeneral]

	Quote:	Chuff
	The UK is currently holding a lot of cards. The EU is engaging in a lot of bluster in an attempt to force the UK's hand because they know that every month the UK stays in the EU despite having held a referendum to leave is a PR disaster for them, a slap in their red faces. We are contesting their will, and autocrats like Juncker et al don't like that, as we have seen from their initial posturing and ill-advised comments. Merkels reaction now calling for calm and saying "no rush" is a clear sign that she knows full well that the UK, as one of Europe's economic powerhouses, has the power to weaken the major EU economies as we are such a big consumer of French and German goods. There is a crapton of scare-mongering going on, but in the end who is going to want to shoot themselves in the foot in order to "make an example" out of the UK? I would even argue that if the EU commission acts like a douchebag in this Brexit, then it will do them more damage than otherwise. We are in the first few days after the referendum, we have not invoked Article 50 yet, and already people are panicking like we have one year left to secure our future before disaster looms. Get a grip of yourselves and lets see how we are in a few months when the dust and initial outrage has settled and things become a little more normalised.

this may be true but this uncertainty is going to put the UK into recession, and if the UK is downgraded by the rating agencies then London as a financial centre is going to suffer as well. The devaluation of the £ means that energy prices will be higher etc etc.

And let's not talk about Scotland which will set off a whole trail of further uncertainty etc.

[Chuff]

	Quote:	cyrus
	No comeback then?.

There was nothing to "come back" to, hence why the discussion stopped.

You simply ignored what had been said to you regarding the UK's economical "cards", and then repeated your question. That is not generally conducive to a discussion.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Chuff
	We are in the first few days after the referendum, we have not invoked Article 50 yet, and already people are panicking like we have one year left to secure our future before disaster looms. Get a grip of yourselves and lets see how we are in a few months when the dust and initial outrage has settled and things become a little more normalised.

You've never been divorced and this is like a divorce.
The moment you seperate, you're credit rating plummets and stays there until the financial settlement has been agreed.


Extended uncertainty is detrimental to our situation because there are so, so many other matters that need to be resolved and renegotiated, and can only be done once our position is certain.

Just as an example... The Open Skies Agreement

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU%E2%...kies_Agreement

[cyrus]

	Quote:	Chuff
	There was nothing to "come back" to, hence why the discussion stopped. You simply ignored what had been said to you regarding the UK's economical "cards", and then repeated your question. That is not generally conducive to a discussion.

No mate, i've yet to see the cards, it's all bluff

[cyrus]

I don't even know what we make anymore, nothing that can't be moved, we live in a global economy, britania rules the waves don't cut it anymore

[Chuff]

	Quote:	MidfieldGeneral
	this may be true but this uncertainty is going to put the UK into recession, and if the UK is downgraded by the rating agencies then London as a financial centre is going to suffer as well. The devaluation of the £ means that energy prices will be higher etc etc. And let's not talk about Scotland which will set off a whole trail of further uncertainty etc.

Yes, it's going to be a rough short/mid-term, that's for sure.

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	Chuff
	Yes, it's going to be a rough short/mid-term, that's for sure.

And that is one of the few things that we know for certain.


Short term there will be losers, but there will also be winners - on the markets, in the workplace and in politics.



Brexit does not mean that the EU or Britain will suddenly disappear. Both will eventually turn up at the table and play their best hand.

	Quote:	MidfieldGeneral
	this may be true but this uncertainty is going to put the UK into recession, and if the UK is downgraded by the rating agencies then London as a financial centre is going to suffer as well. The devaluation of the £ means that energy prices will be higher etc etc. And let's not talk about Scotland which will set off a whole trail of further uncertainty etc.

Not forgetting either that most of the energy suppliers are now French, German, etc- water supplies even, and of curse nuclear energy too. They've got us over a barrel seems to come to mind.

The winners are hardly going to be the 'ordinary' little folk some seem to care about (not).

[Chuff]

	Quote:	cyrus
	No mate, i've yet to see the cards, it's all bluff

Sorry but that makes no sense, cyrus. How is it all "bluff" when it is a fact that we consume a great amount of French and German exports, (and they ours)?

We take a whopping 15% of our imports from Germany, a more modest but still significant 6% from France, 8% of Holland, etc etc. http://www.worldsrichestcountries.co...K-imports.html

As for exports, they are also significant http://www.worldsrichestcountries.co...K-exports.html

There is a mutual reliance, a symbiosis of sorts, and no-one in their right mind wants that to end, Brexit or no.

[Kosti]

Its not cars, energy, fish, or funding the NHS, its uncertainity.

Any business looking to make investments in the UK will keep putting this decision into the future, until there is clarity of what trade with the UK will look like. Right now, there is more clarity regards trade between Germany and Bulgaria, as compared to trade between Germany and the UK.

Businesses want to invest more in the UK than they do in Bulgaria, but claiming that the UK holds the cards by sitting on the fence is nonsense.
It is just carrying on with the bluster that will ensure that the lack of investment pushes the UK into recession.

Lack of investment isnt going to help the little Englanders who thought voting leave = Leave!

[bigblue2]

I fail to see what cards the UK holds?? the UK NEEDS a trade deal with the EU, the EU can carry on quite happily without one, the UK NEEDS to export 1.2 millions cars (half of all the UK's output) the EU can quite happily carry on without the UK's imports.

This is before you take into account a big number of those 1.2m are BMW owned brands, or the fact Ford make a huge amount of engines for export to other ford factories in the EU, or the engines in the mini's are made in austria etc etc

really, I don't mind how people voted, fair play to them

but

all I see is the leavers voted for a lie, a big fat huge sticking bag of lies that will lead to a very painful, long recession (which will be the EU's fault of course)

maybe our kids will see the benefit of leaving

[amogles]

	Quote:
	Not forgetting either that most of the energy suppliers are now French, German, etc- water supplies even, and of curse nuclear energy too. They've got us over a barrel seems to come to mind. The winners are hardly going to be the 'ordinary' little folk some seem to care about (not).

Why should foreign owned assets be more problematic outside of the EU than inside? Even the Chinese have a stake in British nuclear power now. Nobody is going to randomly raise prices because they are on a revenge trip. That's not how the market works.

British companies also own stuff in Germany. Sky for example owns a lot of TV stuff, and Stagecoach runs bus rural services in different parts. Are the Germans now running scared that the Brits are going to twist the knife on them? Then why should the inverse be a problem?