The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	That has not changed since the referendum as you well know , so on identical counting methodology unemployment has fallen since the referendum. Facts are hard to swallow for some

Hard to say as the ref was mid-year and the stats are yearly, hence me taking the previous full year stats to compare with every year since.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	The irony. Why face up to a statistic when you can deflect with your own set of whataboutery, eh?

You will notice 'set to cost', it's an opinion, just like all the claims that a leave vote would plunge the UK into recession immediately & the UK would need an emergency budget. Trouble with forecasts is they are inevitably wrong, the people making the forecasts need a day job to pay the bills

I wonder if the UK stock market has priced in the inevitable removal of worker protections and human rights law? That would make doing business much more profitable, wouldn't it?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	I wonder if the UK stock market has priced in the inevitable removal of worker protections and human rights law? That would make doing business much more profitable, wouldn't it?

Only in bad times, in good times when staff are in short supply you need to offer more money to attract staff. Switzerland did this around 2000 when the CHF was weak, current hires are 40% cheaper than 20 years ago, hence older hires being let go. Being able to react quickly to change is key.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	You will notice 'set to cost', it's an opinion, just like all the claims that a leave vote would plunge the UK into recession immediately & the UK would need an emergency budget. Trouble with forecasts is they are inevitably wrong, the people making the forecasts need a day job to pay the bills

Presumably you blindly swallowed the forecasts that a Leave vote would be in your favour, though?

Those people can keep their day jobs, right, because they're saying the stuff you want to hear?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Only in bad times, in good times when staff are in short supply you need to offer more money to attract staff. Switzerland did this around 2000 when the CHF was weak, current hires are 40% cheaper than 20 years ago, hence older hires being let go. Being able to react quickly to change is key.

Except in the case of the UK the chance will be that they will have to compete directly with countries with a much lower cost structure for access to the EU market with up to now accounted for 48%.

There is productivity were Switzerland is much higher ranked that the UK, as is most major European economies for that matter...

There is only one resource that is flexible in these cases and that's labour.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Presumably you blindly swallowed the forecasts that a Leave vote would be in your favour, though? Those people can keep their day jobs, right, because they're saying the stuff you want to hear?

It was a huge surprise when leave won, it was unexpected as the huge plunge in global stock markets the following day showed, had it been expected they would have rallied.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Except in the case of the UK the chance will be that they will have to compete directly with countries with a much lower cost structure for access to the EU market with up to now accounted for 48%. There is productivity were Switzerland is much higher ranked that the UK, as is most major European economies for that matter... There is only one resource that is flexible in these cases and that's labour.

The UK has bought more from the EU than it has sold to the EU every year since joining, perhaps tariffs will address this problem.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The UK has bought more from the EU than it has sold to the EU every year since joining, perhaps tariffs will address this problem.

How would that help the UK? People still need (or want) the things that were being imported. The UK is a captive market, there is little incentive for EU exporters to swallow costs - the UK consumer will have to.

These goods will certainly be more expensive to the UK consumer / UK business now. If it was cheaper to produce them in the UK, that would already have been happening (according to your economic view of trade).

Not sure how you can view this as anything except a bad situation.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	It was a huge surprise when leave won, it was unexpected as the huge plunge in global stock markets the following day showed, had it been expected they would have rallied.

Had it been expected, the markets would still have fallen. The leave vote marked a fall off a cliff into the unknown whether it was expected or not.

Bottom line is that the economy on the ground in the UK is poor and getting worse. People have less disposable income and with the utterly suicidal conditions BoJo is going to pull the UK out from the EU means every-day life for the average person is not going to get any better.

I guess a nurse hitting the foodbanks to feed the family would laugh in your face if you gave her a set of graphs and spreadsheets showing her how you think the economy is booming - although I think she's probably heard it all before from the deluded government.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Had it been expected, the markets would still have fallen. The leave vote marked a fall off a cliff into the unknown whether it was expected or not. Bottom line is that the economy on the ground in the UK is poor and getting worse. People have less disposable income and with the utterly suicidal conditions BoJo is going to pull the UK out from the EU means every-day life for the average person is not going to get any better. I guess a nurse hitting the foodbanks to feed the family would laugh in your face if you gave her a set of graphs and spreadsheets showing her how you think the economy is booming - although I think she's probably heard it all before from the deluded government.

Markets don't fall if something is expected as it is priced in, otherwise you would always make money just buying before an election or any other vote.

Bottom line is the UK's economy is stronger than Germany's, food for thought. People have too much debt at high interest rates, they have been living above their means for years, thats why they have less disposable income.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	How would that help the UK? People still need (or want) the things that were being imported. The UK is a captive market, there is little incentive for EU exporters to swallow costs - the UK consumer will have to. These goods will certainly be more expensive to the UK consumer / UK business now. If it was cheaper to produce them in the UK, that would already have been happening (according to your economic view of trade). Not sure how you can view this as anything except a bad situation.

If the UK had not grown other export markets it would have bankrupted itself, you can't buy more than you sell for 46 years & get away with it.

Despite the fall in the £, goods have increased in price to compensate, inflation is way below the target 2%. If EU exporters don't swallow the costs they will lose market share. Goods are sold at the maximum the market will bear, nothing to do with costs & exchange rates. You live in CH this should be very obvious v costs in DE/FR where there is higher VAT.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Bottom line is the UK's economy is stronger than Germany's, food for thought. People have too much debt at high interest rates, they have been living above their means for years, that's why they have less disposable income.

In your opinion.

In reality it's down to wage freezes and increased prices.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Markets don't fall if something is expected as it is priced in, otherwise you would always make money just buying before an election or any other vote. Bottom line is the UK's economy is stronger than Germany's, food for thought. People have too much debt at high interest rates, they have been living above their means for years, thats why they have less disposable income.

Rents are increasing, wages are not. Food banks are more prevalent than ever before.

You're either trolling and therefore being wilfully obtuse about things or you really don't have a clue about how difficult just getting by is for so many people.

Don't bother trotting out your usual stuff about cars, internet access and mobile phones and smoking. Irrelevant whataboutery when full time working folk struggle to feed their kids.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The UK has bought more from the EU than it has sold to the EU every year since joining, perhaps tariffs will address this problem.

You really do need to pay attention and stop the 101 economics. First of all the Tories have already state they will operate zero tariffs on imports until they reach the various trade deals are in place and in WTO terms that means no tariffs on any of the 165 members. And buying less from the EU will have little impact on employment figures since you'd need the inward investment to build up the infra structure plus the lead time to put it in place. And given the desire for instant gratification by the BREITEERS, I doubt very much they will have willingness to wait 5+ years for it to happen.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Rents are increasing, wages are not. Food banks are more prevalent than ever before. You're either trolling and therefore being wilfully obtuse about things or you really don't have a clue about how difficult just getting by is for so many people. Don't bother trotting out your usual stuff about cars, internet access and mobile phones and smoking. Irrelevant whataboutery when full time working folk struggle to feed their kids.

Rents have been falling in London, no trolling just facts that don’t fit your agenda.
Wages have risen in the UK, there is about to be a large rise in min wage, clearly this does not apply to your friends

If people have more kids than they can afford, then clearly they will struggle.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Rents have been falling in London, no trolling just facts that don’t fit your agenda. Wages have risen in the UK, there is about to be a large rise in min wage, clearly this does not apply to your friends

The facts you need...

	Quote:
	"Tenants will face a 15.9 per cent rise in rents in London by 2023 compared to house price growth of 4.5 per cent over the same period of time, according to property group Savills. Rents set by private landlords are naturally capped by wage growth and affordability levels."

[Chuff]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Rents have been falling in London, no trolling just facts that don’t fit your agenda.

Well, you are both kind of right. Rents did decrease in 2018 but now look to be rising again https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...me-in-a-decade

Eithe way the decrease was so small as to be less than material, around 0.5-1%.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Rents have been falling in London, no trolling just facts that don’t fit your agenda. Wages have risen in the UK, there is about to be a large rise in min wage, clearly this does not apply to your friends If people have more kids than they can afford, then clearly they will struggle.

Not facts. London isn't the entirety of the UK. What on earth have my friends got to do with anything? Or are you making assumptions? You know nothing.

If people are not paid enough and food prices continue to rise they will struggle. Circumstances change.

Large rise and minimum wage are a contradiction in terms. I'm guessing you've never struggled.

Things are materially getting worse.

https://cpag.org.uk/child-poverty/ch...ts-and-figures

30% of children (4.1m) were in poverty in 2017/18. This is expected to rise to 5.2m by 2022.

You can fanny about with minimum wage claims, employment claims and the health of the economy claims, but when you boil it down, it really isn't good enough.