The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	CodPeace
	Who said it wasn't fine by anyone else on this forum? Certainly not me. I said 3 million EU citizens want to stay in the UK, BY CHOICE. They are not trapped there. Sure, would be a right royal PITA to uproot for them, but there is no need for them to do that, hence the UKs EU Settlement Scheme. I think some members of this forum take the 'Gammons' on here as being extreme right wing, BNP/UKIP, anti-immigrant type people, when in reality, all I see is slightly right of center. Right, where can I complain about those 9 groans?

In a democracy the majority rules

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	greenmount
	That didn't answer anything, you are just repeating the same nonsense. I'd love to have a discussion with anyone here, but not with people who are deliberately trying to manipulate.

I’m repeating it because it’s true! I am not trying to manipulate anything, for your information I used to be very pro Freedom of Movement, that was until I learned that it only benefits people like me (and I assume you as well). Highly educated and skilled migrants. In the UK free movement of people has depressed the wages of those worst off whilst inflating those of people like me. I don’t think that is fair.

https://assets.publishing.service.go...EEA_report.PDF

[John William]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	As bad as the Windrush scandal was, and it was terrible, it shouldn’t be forgotten that one of the contributing factors towards it was Free Movement of People as part of EU membership. In order to stick to the government’s (crazy) immigration targets they could only focus on non EU immigrants. Non EU immigrants were unfairly targeted due to the protection afforded to EU immigrants from freedom of movement.

What are you talking about - before you post, you should get your historical facts straight
first.

HMT Empire Windrush. The Empire Windrush arrived at Tilbury on 22 June 1948, carrying 493
passengers from Jamaica wishing to start a new life in the United Kingdom.
The passengers (including one stowaway) were the first large group of West Indian
immigrants to the UK after the Second World War.

This being 9 years before the Common Market ( that developed into the EU ) was founded
on the 25th March 1957.

So no EU or even a Common Market, let alone Free Movement of People in 1948.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	I’m repeating it because it’s true! I am not trying to manipulate anything, for your information I used to be very pro Freedom of Movement, that was until I learned that it only benefits people like me (and I assume you as well). Highly educated and skilled migrants. In the UK free movement of people has depressed the wages of those worst off whilst inflating those of people like me. I don’t think that is fair. https://assets.publishing.service.go...EEA_report.PDF

According to your link

There is some evidence that lower-skilled workers face a negative impact while higher-skilled workers benefit, however the magnitude of the impacts are generally small.

[gaburko]

	Quote:	marton
	According to your link

He said he's highly educated, so he doesn't need to read

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	marton
	According to your link There is some evidence that lower-skilled workers face a negative impact while higher-skilled workers benefit, however the magnitude of the impacts are generally small.

5% impact is not insignificant and this is before you add in other non measurable factors.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	I’m repeating it because it’s true! I am not trying to manipulate anything, for your information I used to be very pro Freedom of Movement, that was until I learned that it only benefits people like me (and I assume you as well). Highly educated and skilled migrants. In the UK free movement of people has depressed the wages of those worst off whilst inflating those of people like me. I don’t think that is fair. https://assets.publishing.service.go...EEA_report.PDF

FOM has certainly depleted the Eastern part of the continent not only of its "brains" but also of those who come on a lower qualified jobs. But also people from Western Europe move around a lot, either as professionals or business owners, small investors, so perhaps I shouldn't have started as if EU agreements affect only some and not the others.
I am still very pro- because it is a compensation for the other "freedoms" - of goods and capital for instance, which has created the same effect you're complaining about only in reverse.

I don't know what is not clear for some people. FOM exists not as a concession. Lots of people/businesses actually do take advantage of it because qualified workforce is an issue in Europe today, everybody wants it, including the less developed states. Everybody misses it.

You should see the hunting Western European unis do in the Eastern part. Or human resources companies or the departments of big companies. Thousands of unis, HR companies come to recruit youth from high school or uni. Have you ever wondered why is that? I am sorry, please spare me the hypocrisy that these people are there only because they want it. They are needed. Heck, we're also going to need people from Asia, South America, Africa etc. while crying we let our own go away and develop other places. Stop making it as if it was just a collateral disadvantage and not the huge advantage of having such a recruiting pool that it actually is.

So some countries considered and decided to give each other preferential, RECIPROCAL treatment in some areas and they should feel guilty exactly because....? Not applying the same preferential treatment to the whole world?

Hard to follow the anti-EU rhetoric.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	5% impact is not insignificant and this is before you add in other non measurable factors.

True, 5% is not insignificant, it is most insignificant.

As your link states the National Living Wage protects the lower-skilled workers from excessive wage exploitation; low skilled migrants can not be paid less than this.
The National Living Wage is an obligatory minimum wage payable to workers in the United Kingdom aged 25 and over which came into effect on 1 April 2016.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Quote: marton According to your link There is some evidence that lower-skilled workers face a negative impact while higher-skilled workers benefit, however the magnitude of the impacts are generally small. 5% impact is not insignificant and this is before you add in other non measurable factors.

Can you just be clear please - when you post a link to support your argument, are we supposed to read it all, including its conclusions, or just let you cherry pick data from it and make all the conclusions for us?

It's just a bit confusing when you disagree with the article you yourself posted.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	greenmount
	So some countries considered and decided to give each other preferential, RECIPROCAL treatment in some areas and they should feel guilty exactly because....? Not applying the same preferential treatment to the whole world? .

The free movement of all types of capital is a fundamental requirement of all single markets including the EU’s single market, so the free movement of Labor is part of that concept and is not optional.

The free movement of certain types of capital is not restricted in national markets either. The UK does not restrict the movement of people within the UK, nor Switzerland or any other state. The EU or more specifically the Euro Group are committed to building a single market and so FMOP is a given. And expecting them to give up on their objectives to satisfy the little Englander was never going to happen.

[Blueangel]

I don't know how accurate this story is, but choose your source

'Gang of illegal immigrants caught trying to flee UK over fear of Brexit rights'
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-new...paign=sharebar

'Gang of 33 illegal immigrants are caught in a lorry at Calais trying to FLEE the UK from Dover - fearing 'mistreatment' after Brexit'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...g-FLEE-UK.html

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	John William
	What are you talking about - before you post, you should get your historical facts straight first. HMT Empire Windrush. The Empire Windrush arrived at Tilbury on 22 June 1948, carrying 493 passengers from Jamaica wishing to start a new life in the United Kingdom. The passengers (including one stowaway) were the first large group of West Indian immigrants to the UK after the Second World War. This being 9 years before the Common Market ( that developed into the EU ) was founded on the 25th March 1957. So no EU or even a Common Market, let alone Free Movement of People in 1948.

Thanks for the totally irrelevant history lesson! I was not talking about history though, I am talking about the Windrush scandal which came about as a result of Theresa May’s so called “hostile environment policy”. This was implemented with the aim of reducing UK immigration figures.

If the aim is to control migration, and it is not possible to control EU migration due to Free Movement of People, then the only tools left at your disposal is to come down hard on non-EU migrants, hence the “hostile environment policy”, hence Windrush. It’s not that hard a concept to grasp!

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	greenmount
	FOM has certainly depleted the Eastern part of the continent not only of its "brains" but also of those who come on a lower qualified jobs. But also people from Western Europe move around a lot, either as professionals or business owners, small investors, so perhaps I shouldn't have started as if EU agreements affect only some and not the others. I am still very pro- because it is a compensation for the other "freedoms" - of goods and capital for instance, which has created the same effect you're complaining about only in reverse. I don't know what is not clear for some people. FOM exists not as a concession. Lots of people/businesses actually do take advantage of it because qualified workforce is an issue in Europe today, everybody wants it, including the less developed states. Everybody misses it. You should see the hunting Western European unis do in the Eastern part. Or human resources companies or the departments of big companies. Thousands of unis, HR companies come to recruit youth from high school or uni. Have you ever wondered why is that? I am sorry, please spare me the hypocrisy that these people are there only because they want it. They are needed. Heck, we're also going to need people from Asia, South America, Africa etc. while crying we let our own go away and develop other places. Stop making it as if it was just a collateral disadvantage and not the huge advantage of having such a recruiting pool that it actually is. So some countries considered and decided to give each other preferential, RECIPROCAL treatment in some areas and they should feel guilty exactly because....? Not applying the same preferential treatment to the whole world? Hard to follow the anti-EU rhetoric.

You are correct, Free Movement of People has depleted Eastern Europe of their brightest and best. The result is a demographic crisis whereby pensions are barely able to be paid and a generation has vanished. Why should people accept this? Free Movement of People can only work between countries with a similar standard of living and economic structures.

This is the real cost of Free Movement of People, that whilst some countries have to bare the impact on their communities, salaries and infrastructure, others are suffering equally through the loss their communities and talent.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	You are correct, Free Movement of People has depleted Eastern Europe of their brightest and best.

Yes. But while I agree with the symptoms, the cause might have been better living standards in the West and businesses investing better in the intellectual capital of people. While it keeps the West on their toes, the competition is tough when competing with driven and educated EE employees, it doesn't motivate their home EE leadership to invest in their own potential. Too slowly. To patch up the missing retirement cash, while investing in young potential is tough. I don't know if shutting down FMOP will quickly help. CH tried...but gradually. And there are resources available.

[gaburko]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	This is the real cost of Free Movement of People, that whilst some countries have to bare the impact on their communities, salaries and infrastructure, others are suffering equally through the loss their communities and talent.

The arrogance of a Westen European who hopes that with closing the borders will protect himself while positioning this as a noble cause, bringing talent back to poor places and solving demographic crisis. Sorry, this is the type of hidden chauvinism which is as toxic as the open one, probably even more.

[TonyClifton]

How ironic that after 3 years of finger wagging from our friends across the Irish Sea of how bad it was having the DUP propping up the UK government they they now go and vote Sinn Fein into be what looks like will be the largest party in Ireland!

[marton]

UK Q4 2019 GDP 0.0% mostly due to another poor showing from manufacturing, particularly the motor industry and Brexit proper has not even started yet due to the transition period.

Barnier points out in a speech today that it took nine years for the EU to reach their deal with Canada and it is the UK who are limiting the negotiation time period.

[CodPeace]

You should pace yourself Marton.
You have another 11 months transition to comment on, plus the US elections, then another 4 years of Trump, and 10 of Boris.


I'm worried you'll run out of steam.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	You are correct, Free Movement of People has depleted Eastern Europe of their brightest and best. The result is a demographic crisis whereby pensions are barely able to be paid and a generation has vanished. Why should people accept this? Free Movement of People can only work between countries with a similar standard of living and economic structures. This is the real cost of Free Movement of People, that whilst some countries have to bare bear the impact on their communities, salaries and infrastructure, others are suffering equally through the loss their communities and talent.

ftfy!

Actually, in the real world, EE is now doing very well partly due to EU support; Poland is now Europe's seventh-largest economy.
They also benefit from the many billions the immigrant workers send home.

Like other EE countries, Poland is smart enough to fill gaps in their workforce with guest workers; over 1 million Ukrainians work in Poland.

For some facts look below;

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Like other EE countries, Poland is smart enough to fill gaps in their workforce with guest workers; over 1 million Ukrainians work in Poland.

Right.

So what was this argument again, that without FMOP you cannot recruit workers from abroad?

Nobody available to pick fruit in the post-Brexit UK and all that?