The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	John William
	What are you talking about - before you post, you should get your historical facts straight first. HMT Empire Windrush. The Empire Windrush arrived at Tilbury on 22 June 1948, carrying 493 passengers from Jamaica wishing to start a new life in the United Kingdom. The passengers (including one stowaway) were the first large group of West Indian immigrants to the UK after the Second World War. This being 9 years before the Common Market ( that developed into the EU ) was founded on the 25th March 1957. So no EU or even a Common Market, let alone Free Movement of People in 1948.

Thanks for the totally irrelevant history lesson! I was not talking about history though, I am talking about the Windrush scandal which came about as a result of Theresa May’s so called “hostile environment policy”. This was implemented with the aim of reducing UK immigration figures.

If the aim is to control migration, and it is not possible to control EU migration due to Free Movement of People, then the only tools left at your disposal is to come down hard on non-EU migrants, hence the “hostile environment policy”, hence Windrush. It’s not that hard a concept to grasp!

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	greenmount
	FOM has certainly depleted the Eastern part of the continent not only of its "brains" but also of those who come on a lower qualified jobs. But also people from Western Europe move around a lot, either as professionals or business owners, small investors, so perhaps I shouldn't have started as if EU agreements affect only some and not the others. I am still very pro- because it is a compensation for the other "freedoms" - of goods and capital for instance, which has created the same effect you're complaining about only in reverse. I don't know what is not clear for some people. FOM exists not as a concession. Lots of people/businesses actually do take advantage of it because qualified workforce is an issue in Europe today, everybody wants it, including the less developed states. Everybody misses it. You should see the hunting Western European unis do in the Eastern part. Or human resources companies or the departments of big companies. Thousands of unis, HR companies come to recruit youth from high school or uni. Have you ever wondered why is that? I am sorry, please spare me the hypocrisy that these people are there only because they want it. They are needed. Heck, we're also going to need people from Asia, South America, Africa etc. while crying we let our own go away and develop other places. Stop making it as if it was just a collateral disadvantage and not the huge advantage of having such a recruiting pool that it actually is. So some countries considered and decided to give each other preferential, RECIPROCAL treatment in some areas and they should feel guilty exactly because....? Not applying the same preferential treatment to the whole world? Hard to follow the anti-EU rhetoric.

You are correct, Free Movement of People has depleted Eastern Europe of their brightest and best. The result is a demographic crisis whereby pensions are barely able to be paid and a generation has vanished. Why should people accept this? Free Movement of People can only work between countries with a similar standard of living and economic structures.

This is the real cost of Free Movement of People, that whilst some countries have to bare the impact on their communities, salaries and infrastructure, others are suffering equally through the loss their communities and talent.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	You are correct, Free Movement of People has depleted Eastern Europe of their brightest and best.

Yes. But while I agree with the symptoms, the cause might have been better living standards in the West and businesses investing better in the intellectual capital of people. While it keeps the West on their toes, the competition is tough when competing with driven and educated EE employees, it doesn't motivate their home EE leadership to invest in their own potential. Too slowly. To patch up the missing retirement cash, while investing in young potential is tough. I don't know if shutting down FMOP will quickly help. CH tried...but gradually. And there are resources available.

[gaburko]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	This is the real cost of Free Movement of People, that whilst some countries have to bare the impact on their communities, salaries and infrastructure, others are suffering equally through the loss their communities and talent.

The arrogance of a Westen European who hopes that with closing the borders will protect himself while positioning this as a noble cause, bringing talent back to poor places and solving demographic crisis. Sorry, this is the type of hidden chauvinism which is as toxic as the open one, probably even more.

[TonyClifton]

How ironic that after 3 years of finger wagging from our friends across the Irish Sea of how bad it was having the DUP propping up the UK government they they now go and vote Sinn Fein into be what looks like will be the largest party in Ireland!

[marton]

UK Q4 2019 GDP 0.0% mostly due to another poor showing from manufacturing, particularly the motor industry and Brexit proper has not even started yet due to the transition period.

Barnier points out in a speech today that it took nine years for the EU to reach their deal with Canada and it is the UK who are limiting the negotiation time period.

[CodPeace]

You should pace yourself Marton.
You have another 11 months transition to comment on, plus the US elections, then another 4 years of Trump, and 10 of Boris.


I'm worried you'll run out of steam.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	You are correct, Free Movement of People has depleted Eastern Europe of their brightest and best. The result is a demographic crisis whereby pensions are barely able to be paid and a generation has vanished. Why should people accept this? Free Movement of People can only work between countries with a similar standard of living and economic structures. This is the real cost of Free Movement of People, that whilst some countries have to bare bear the impact on their communities, salaries and infrastructure, others are suffering equally through the loss their communities and talent.

ftfy!

Actually, in the real world, EE is now doing very well partly due to EU support; Poland is now Europe's seventh-largest economy.
They also benefit from the many billions the immigrant workers send home.

Like other EE countries, Poland is smart enough to fill gaps in their workforce with guest workers; over 1 million Ukrainians work in Poland.

For some facts look below;

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Like other EE countries, Poland is smart enough to fill gaps in their workforce with guest workers; over 1 million Ukrainians work in Poland.

Right.

So what was this argument again, that without FMOP you cannot recruit workers from abroad?

Nobody available to pick fruit in the post-Brexit UK and all that?

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	marton
	ftfy! Actually, in the real world, EE is now doing very well partly due to EU support; Poland is now Europe's seventh-largest economy. They also benefit from the many billions the immigrant workers send home. Like other EE countries, Poland is smart enough to fill gaps in their workforce with guest workers; over 1 million Ukrainians work in Poland. For some facts look below; Attachment 138651 Attachment 138652

Who says this is an EU thing. It may be the end of a lame regime thing. Love the ability of some to claim victory anywhere possible.

[marton]

	Quote:	CodPeace
	You should pace yourself Marton. You have another 11 months transition to comment on, plus the US elections, then another 4 years of Trump, and 10 of Boris. I'm worried you'll run out of steam.

No doubt you can provide enough for both of us

To get back on topic, you really believe Boris will not collapse and so extend the transition period?

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	marton
	No doubt you can provide enough for both of us

It is not Valentine's Day yet.

[hairybadger]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	Who says this is an EU thing. It may be the end of a lame regime thing. Love the ability of some to claim victory anywhere possible.

I was about to say something similar but you beat me to it. It would be interesting to see if there have been any attempts to quantify the effects of regime change and the effects of EU membership.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	Barnier points out in a speech today that it took nine years for the EU to reach their deal with Canada and it is the UK who are limiting the negotiation time period.

Boris is limiting the negotiation time because he intends to use that to force an of the shelf version of the Canadian deal on the UK...

[CodPeace]

	Quote:	marton
	No doubt you can provide enough for both of us To get back on topic, you really believe Boris will not collapse and so extend the transition period?

I provide hot air, not steam, don't get your gaseous vapours mixed up.


Maybe he will, he's a difficult fish to pin down, and, events.

	Quote:	MusicChick
	It is not Valentine's Day yet.

I know, a practically cordial exchange.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Boris is limiting the negotiation time because he intends to use that to force an of the shelf version of the Canadian deal on the UK...

Borris understands how to negotiate with the EU, none of the negotiators understood how important no deal is in negotiating.

[marton]

	Quote:
	The idea that Britain can leave the European Union and maintain frictionless trade with the bloc of 27 countries is officially dead. Cabinet minister Michael Gove warned UK businesses on Monday that the government will subject goods from the European Union to border controls starting at the end of this year, acknowledging the end of frictionless trade with the country's biggest export market. "The UK will be outside the [EU] single market and outside the customs union, so we will have to be ready for the customs procedures and regulatory checks that will inevitably follow," Gove said during a speech.

End of a dream!

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Borris understands how to negotiate with the EU, none of the negotiators understood how important no deal is in negotiating.

What Boris understand is how easy it is to sell nonsense to the voters, just like he accepted the WA, after tossing NI under the bus.... next is is a bog standard Canada deal...

[marton]

Sajid Javid has gone, replaced by Rishi Sunak (who?)

Edit; Julian Smith, Northern Ireland secretary, Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, and Theresa Villiers, the environment secretary all gone!

I thought Julian Smith did a great job, he oversaw the restoration of its devolved assembly

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	I thought Julian Smith did a great job, he oversaw the restoration of its devolved assembly

Well given that neither SF nor the DUP had any choice at that point..... 'cash for ash' and the Irish language turned out not to be so important after all.