The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Does anyone actually still believe that Boris is trying to negotiate a Deal with EU. I don't.

Borris needs to do some other deals first & that is clearly what he will do. EU could have had the first deal but as they will no longer offer a Canadian deal they will need to wait. Borris seems to understand how to negotiate which is a very positive change.

[CodPeace]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Thank you for contributing to the discussion...

It's hardly a debate, is it?


Seems to me team Center Right have a more balanced and pragmatic outlook than Team Islington though.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Borris needs to do some other deals first & that is clearly what he will do. EU could have had the first deal but as they will no longer offer a Canadian deal they will need to wait. Borris seems to understand how to negotiate which is a very positive change.

BS as usual. That would mean that the UK would trade on WTO terms covering 48% of their exports, which according to Boris will be zero tariffs on imports from all 165 members of the WTO, so why would anyone want to bother doing a deal when they already have unrestricted access to the UK market..... especially since they can continue to apply WTO rates on all UK imports.

[marton]

	Quote:	Full Circle
	It's really not that difficult to grasp. In an era where resources are being depleted and people are trying to reduce their carbon footprint, an ever increasing population should not be a goal. Anyway, I'm still waiting for you to explain how adding a hundred thousand new immigrants each year doesn't adversely affect the housing shortage?

The world population is steadily increasing.....

[NotAllThere]

	Quote:	marton
	The world population is steadily increasing.....

Not for too many decades.

	Quote:	Full Circle
	Un And the further pressure that they put on UK's limited resources is not a problem? Sustainable population growth should be the aim, not unlimited growth.

Perhaps you haven't noticed that we all live on the same planet? Over-population is a global problem not restricted to any one single country.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:
	Does anyone actually still believe that Boris is trying to negotiate a Deal with EU. I don't.

What makes you believe that? Mr Johnson has already passed one deal.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Let's assume your point of view is not totally wrong, but you should already know that many jobs are not wanted by the locals. And not necessarily because the pay is low (which is not always the case, by the way) but because that specific work is really hard and/or requires some training or specific skills that people have no desire to retrain for. How do you solve these problems? I would like to hear about viable solutions....

The country obviously makes it possible - if there are jobs that are not wanted by locals, how about providing incentives for locals to get motivated. Or rather, unproviding the conditions that make it possible. What are the permits depending on again, in Switzerland? Why do people have a problem imagining the same for the UK.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	marton
	The world population is steadily increasing.....

Not in Europe though. Those who carefully choose to ignore facts should take a look at demographics in Europe.

Most countries (especially in Eastern Europe) have abnormally low birth-rates. Under replacement rates. Who are these people afraid of? It's ridiculous. Seriously, Europe is afraid of Europeans? Wow.

An interesting article...

https://www.ft.com/content/9b03216c-...9-0bcf87a328f2


Stats for EU

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogr...European_Union

....and for comparison with the....wide world..


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...fertility_rate

	Quote:	MusicChick
	The country obviously makes it possible - if there are jobs that are not wanted by locals, how about providing incentives for locals to get motivated. Or rather, unproviding the conditions that make it possible. What are the permits depending on again, in Switzerland? Why do people have a problem imagining the same for the UK.

It's largely a stable door/horse has bolted issue I think. It's irrelevant trying to compare CH and UK, on population size alone I reckon. Also, largely, totally different mindset.

	Quote:	MusicChick
	The country obviously makes it possible - if there are jobs that are not wanted by locals, how about providing incentives for locals to get motivated. Or rather, unproviding the conditions that make it possible. What are the permits depending on again, in Switzerland? Why do people have a problem imagining the same for the UK.

oh but they have tried - if people don't turn up on time, call in sick with backache after 1 day, can't get out of bed- and make mistakes which mean goods are returned from supermarkets and contracts lost (if a crate has to have 12 cauliflowers and the put 10 or 11 in)- if they are rude to customers in the restaurant, can't turn up looking clean and have no social skills, etc etc- what is the employer to do?

I wonder, do you have elderly parents? Can you imagine someone being forced to go and care for your mother or grandmother- who will hate the job, who will hate wiping their bottom or changing their diaper/nappy- or feed them- lose their temper and be unkind- rude, or even violent. Hos does that work?

And force people to go and clean hospitals and toilets- where MRSA is already a problem- who will not want to or be able to, stick to protocols- and risk the life of others?

Or drive large lorries without the experience. Or work on building sites? The list is endless.

So yes- the Governement could say 'no work- no benefits' - and then what? You need an effective, willing and cooperative workforce, with experience. You can't pick people off the street ...It can work with some, you can provide re-training, for some- very successfully- but for many, it just is unlikely to work, sadly.

Others will say, pay them a decent wage for the job and they will do it. But the same applies as above. And who will pay the extra cost? The cost of living in a care home is massive already. And the extra cost will be passed on to customers- same for fruit, veg, poultry or meat, etc.

Sounds so simple - it is NOT.

To some extent, we have the same here near the French border. Local unemployed complain about the frontaliers- and that they should have their jobs. But they do not have the skills or qualifications, most of the time. You can't work as a watchmaker or an engineer, or a nurse - etc if you haven't got the training.

I know two youngsters who are on the social here. Nice guys, but a bit 'different'- never get out of bed before 10 or 12- short fuse- can't take any authority, throw stuff ont he floor and slam the door after a few days, or anytime they are given advice. So even in Switzerland, they do get a minimum amount of money- and after 25, they can move out of mum's and dad's and get a flat that will be paid for, and the health insurance too. Because, at the end of the day- employers are better off without them. Sad, but true.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	Also, largely, totally different mindset.

Also one other thing. Seasonal vacancies such as those found in the agricultural sector, are often in sparsely populated areas. It's often not economically viable to expect people to relocate for 2 or 3 months work, particularly if they have family commitments.

However, only a couple of years ago, the HR boss of Pret A Manger complained that only 1 in 50 applicants was British. That's not a bad job and they're all over the country.

[amogles]

	Quote:
	To some extent, we have the same here near the French border. Local unemployed complain about the frontaliers- and that they should have their jobs. But they do not have the skills or qualifications, most of the time. You can't work as a watchmaker or an engineer, or a nurse - etc if you haven't got the training. I know two youngsters who are on the social here. Nice guys, but a bit 'different'- never get out of bed before 10 or 12- short fuse- can't take any authority, throw stuff ont he floor and slam the door after a few days, or anytime they are given advice. So even in Switzerland, they do get a minimum amount of money- and after 25, they can move out of mum's and dad's and get a flat that will be paid for, and the health insurance too. Because, at the end of the day- employers are better off without them. Sad, but true.

It is disingeniuous to extrapolate from extreme cases to the median.

There is a whole setup that starts with public perception of status, that says that being a doctor is being better than being a carpenter.

If you want to look at the shortage of carpenters, you need to look at this much more than looking at some individual anecdotal cases of people who are too lazy.

[Full Circle]

	Quote:
	Sounds so simple - it is NOT.

Definitely a multifaceted problem and more British workers would mean higher prices.

However I still think there's room to improve and I believe the abundance of foreign workers who are willing to work for shitty conditions have made it easier for farmers not to try.

[marton]

Interesting times
"EU demands UK keep chlorinated chicken ban to get trade deal, clause in negotiating mandate for Michel Barnier will create hurdle to US-UK deal"

Looks like it will be a fun time negotiation.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	amogles
	There is a whole setup that starts with public perception of status, that says that being a doctor is being better than being a carpenter. If you want to look at the shortage of carpenters, you need to look at this much more than looking at some individual anecdotal cases of people who are too lazy.

The example you've chosen is nothing to do with status and a lot to do with the student grants for vocational courses.

I employed several young tradespeople in 2016-2018 and heard the same story time and again. The final year of their training was usually on day release from local businesses who 'funded' their course fees, and could claim back the cost from the government. Problem is, that many of these businesses end the final year apprenticeship a couple months short of the end of the course, once they'd been reimbursed for the fees paid and would have to pay the remaining term fees in full. I heard this from gardeners, a joiner, a decorater and a plasterer, where they were laid off up to 6months (in the case of the joiner) before the end of their college day release and left to pay the remaining course fees themselves, often having to literally beg their tutors to allow them to complete the course.

	Quote:	Full Circle
	Definitely a multifaceted problem and more British workers would mean higher prices. However I still think there's room to improve and I believe the abundance of foreign workers who are willing to work for shitty conditions have made it easier for farmers not to try.

Of course. And offer great re-training schemes- but only a certain % of people will be suited. Here in NE, there has been a strong emphasis on retraining for unemployed people- to suit the type of vacancies we have. It is very successful, but certainly NOT for all.

The recent documentary for the BBC recently- where people were given strong incentive to go and work picking veg and working in restaurants - ended up with just too many being able or willing to do the job properly, etc. The agriculture bosses said that if they cannot get season workers and permanent workers from the EU- the only solution will be automation- large investment at first, but then very cheap.

And then what do you do with your local people??? These regions already have massive social problems- what then?

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	marton
	Interesting times "EU demands UK keep chlorinated chicken ban to get trade deal, clause in negotiating mandate for Michel Barnier will create hurdle to US-UK deal" Looks like it will be a fun time negotiation.

I know these are opening positions but the sides are so far apart, it's very difficult to see how they will come to an agreement. Some of the EU demands are just ridiculous that no country would ever agree to. The UK on the other hand appear to be the reasonable ones by simply asking for something that the EU has said was on offer for the last 3 years.

Weird that after 3 years of saying the UK needs to accept an off the peg deal as they're "just a third country", that when the UK agrees to this request, the EU changes their tune and says that the UK is a special country and therefore needs a bespoke deal!

[roegner]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Some of the EU demands are just ridiculous that no country would ever agree to. The UK on the other hand appear to be the reasonable ones by simply asking for something that the EU has said was on offer for the last 3 years.

Since when is the UK accepting anything? And for the UK demands to be reasonable ......
They have been granted a lot of exceptions during their time in the EU. Why should the EU continue that now they have willingly left?