The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	People set up companies to make money, employing people is an expensive side effect. The stock market is not about 'human lives' & has never been. Not sure why you make such a connection. Without Trump, how many of those 100,0000's would be alive in 10 years? I think you are making connections that don't exist.

Because Trump is such a devoted humanitarian?

You're making a lot of assumptions. True, everyone has to die of something, but I imagine those thousands of folk would much prefer to die peacefully surrounded by loved ones than fighting for breath in isolation.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Perhaps you forgot the electorate voted for BREXIT, nobody voted for Corona Virus or the shut down.

I'm not talking about the voters, I taking about ministers that had no problem advocating walking way for all the trade deals etc... but are now worried about a shot closure.....

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	I'm not talking about the voters, I taking about ministers that had no problem advocating walking way for all the trade deals etc... but are now worried about a shot closure.....

You don't need a trade deal to trade, you can't trade if all the factories are closed & there is nothing to sell.

Someone on a FB forum wrote this today

''Anyone else worried that Covid 19 will just be a convenient scapegoat for crap caused by Brexit and leavers will be as committed as ever, at a time when the effects will be much much worse?''

and it seems, the answer is 'yes, I truly am'

[k_and_e]

	Quote:
	Someone on a FB forum wrote this today ''Anyone else worried that Covid 19 will just be a convenient scapegoat for crap caused by Brexit and leavers will be as committed as ever, at a time when the effects will be much much worse?'' and it seems, the answer is 'yes, I truly am'

To be fair, Covid 19 will be used as a scapegoat for everything that goes wrong this year by everyone. Not only Brexit.

[Full Circle]

	Quote:	Troublawesome
	I'm tired of the EU bashing, I wish we throw them out without a deal and let them do whatever they want. We're headed there anyway, the EU should stop accommodating. Everyone is sick of it.

Who's 'we'?

[marton]

	Quote:
	Someone on a FB forum wrote this today ''Anyone else worried that Covid 19 will just be a convenient scapegoat for crap caused by Brexit and leavers will be as committed as ever, at a time when the effects will be much much worse?'' and it seems, the answer is 'yes, I truly am'

Seems like we are drifting to a "no deal" exit because all the key players are either too busy dealing with COV-19, doing home office or simply being ill.

[Chuff]

	Quote:
	Someone on a FB forum wrote this today ''Anyone else worried that Covid 19 will just be a convenient scapegoat for crap caused by Brexit and leavers will be as committed as ever, at a time when the effects will be much much worse?'' and it seems, the answer is 'yes, I truly am'

Thanks for quoting some random person on Facebook as an excuse to launch your own views on how to connect Covid with Brexit . Very subtle.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	It's interesting to hear all the Tory concern for the impact a few weeks shutdown will do to the economy... while at the same time they don't seem to have any concern about the impact walking away from from every trade agreement they have and access to the European financial services market will have...

What a stupid thing UK did, seriously. I'm now more convinced than ever. All the inequality, the lack of equal opportunities for some and the ugliness of EU is so right in your face these days. We owe something to this coronavirus. He revealed a lot of things.

All these "freedoms" have been conceived and worked for the countries in the Western part of the continent. And UK chose to leave.

It's actually a poetic justice....to quote someone here on EF.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	It's interesting to hear all the Tory concern for the impact a few weeks shutdown will do to the economy... while at the same time they don't seem to have any concern about the impact walking away from from every trade agreement they have and access to the European financial services market will have...

This has already been covered! It's all about trade-offs, but for starters, the economic recession we're about to see thanks to the Coronavirus is about 10 times worse (probably more) than the WORST no-deal economic forecast for a no-deal Brexit. And there was nothing to prove that this would have even happened - that's the problem with models be it Climate or Economic, one can always input the data to get the result one wants to see.

At present, people see the economic price as a worthwhile trade-off to saving people's lives. Brexiteer's see national sovereignty and being outside a bureaucratic, expansionist behemoth as worthwhile trade-off to the risk of slower economic growth.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	This has already been covered! It's all about trade-offs, but for starters, the economic recession we're about to see thanks to the Coronavirus is about 10 times worse (probably more) than the WORST no-deal economic forecast for a no-deal Brexit. And there was nothing to prove that this would have even happened - that's the problem with models be it Climate or Economic, one can always input the data to get the result one wants to see. At present, people see the economic price as a worthwhile trade-off to saving people's lives. Brexiteer's see national sovereignty and being outside a bureaucratic, expansionist behemoth as worthwhile trade-off to the risk of slower economic growth.

The poor economic forecast for Brexit is not based on models but on the fact that there are no large free trade deals with other countries ready to go even after almost 4 years.
Remember "Liam Fox promises to sign 40 free trade deals the 'second after midnight ' on the day of Brexit"; another lie.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	marton
	The poor economic forecast for Brexit is not based on models but on the fact that there are no large free trade deals with other countries ready to go even after almost 4 years. Remember "Liam Fox promises to sign 40 free trade deals the 'second after midnight ' on the day of Brexit"; another lie.

Marton, please don't let facts stay in the way of a good nationalis...ahem "anti-globalist" opinion.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	And there was nothing to prove that this would have even happened

The Japanese car makers are moving production "back home". It may not have happened yet (not sure) but it definitely will and Brexit is the trigger.

Many financials companies have already moved operations to the continent, more are likely to follow regardles of the actual outcome. Simply because the uncertainty BoJo causes forces their hand.

Etc

It's hilarious to see you predict the economic onsequences of the coronavirus without a shadow of doubt while you simultaneously deny the obvious consequences of Brexit even though many companies have actually announced what they will do and must be acting on that already. But of course that's different, isn't it.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	The Japanese car makers are moving production "back home". It may not have happened yet (not sure) but it definitely will and Brexit is the trigger. Many financials companies have already moved operations to the continent, more are likely to follow regardles of the actual outcome. Simply because the uncertainty BoJo causes forces their hand. Etc It's hilarious to see you predict the economic onsequences of the coronavirus without a shadow of doubt while you simultaneously deny the obvious consequences of Brexit even though many companies have actually announced what they will do and must be acting on that already. But of course that's different, isn't it.

Well it doesn't take a genius to see that when people don't work there will be an economic hit and that when governments start handing out money left, right and centre that someday that debt is going to have to be repaid

Brexit is completely different, whether or not a trade deal will be struck, and assessing the consequences of no deal being struck.

p.s. vast majority of financial operations remain in London and Brexit wasn't the trigger for the upheaval the car industry is seeing at the moment

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Brexit wasn't the trigger for the upheaval the car industry is seeing at the moment

Stop putting words in my mouth, this isn't what I said.

Still, to play along: Obviously there are other issues, like the shift towards electric. The investments for that do happen, just not in the UK. In 2018 investments by SMMT members (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) dropped by almost 50% due to the moving of car production away from the UK which, of course, is caused by Brexit.

This is what Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive said last year when Brexit was two months away. And don't ask for a more recent quote, I can't be bothered given the continued fall of production numbers shown below (chart taken from SMMT):

	Quote:
	With fewer than 60 days before we leave the EU and the risk of crashing out without a deal looking increasingly real, UK Automotive is on red alert. Brexit uncertainty has already done enormous damage to output, investment and jobs. Yet this is nothing compared with the permanent devastation caused by severing our frictionless trade links overnight, not just with the EU but with the many other global markets with which we currently trade freely. Given the global headwinds, the challenges to the sector are immense. Brexit is the clear and present danger and, with thousands of jobs on the line, we urge all parties to do whatever it takes to save us from ‘no deal’.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Stop putting words in my mouth, this isn't what I said. Still, to play along: Obviously there are other issues, like the shift towards electric. The investments for that do happen, just not in the UK. In 2018 investments by SMMT members (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) dropped by almost 50% due to the moving of car production away from the UK which, of course, is caused by Brexit. This is what Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive said last year when Brexit was two months away. And don't ask for a more recent quote, I can't be bothered given the continued fall of production numbers shown below (chart taken from SMMT):

I guess you can see when scraping a car deals were offered, this brings future sales forward, the average sales over 3-5 years won't change much.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I guess you can see when scraping a car deals were offered, this brings future sales forward, the average sales over 3-5 years won't change much.

That's meaningless, they're offered all the time and have been for ages.

Oooops they have been advertising, and advertising and advertising some more- but nope. All those in East Anglia who voted Brexit because foreigners were taking their job- have NOT applied...So it is now realised that the UK needs 70000 labourers to pick vegetables and soon, fruit. Many flights from Romania organised starting tomorrow, with a huge advertising campaing in Eastern Europe on the way.

Just could NOT make it up. And in the middle of Covid crisis.

Reminds me of going skiing in Steamboat in the 90s. The local redneck politicians had had a massive 'clean-out' getting rid of 1000s of 'irregular' workers. They were mightily pleased with themselves- until the ski season started and they realised they had no-one to clean and prepare food in Hôtels, restaurants, etc- no-one to man the lifts, groom the pistes, etc, etc- and the town was on the brink of disaster.

[amogles]

	Quote:
	Oooops they have been advertising, and advertising and advertising some more- but nope. All those in East Anglia who voted Brexit because foreigners were taking their job- have NOT applied...So it is now realised that the UK needs 70000 labourers to pick vegetables and soon, fruit. Many flights from Romania organised starting tomorrow, with a huge advertising campaing in Eastern Europe on the way. Just could NOT make it up. And in the middle of Covid crisis. Reminds me of going skiing in Steamboat in the 90s. The local redneck politicians had had a massive 'clean-out' getting rid of 1000s of 'irregular' workers. They were mightily pleased with themselves- until the ski season started and they realised they had no-one to clean and prepare food in Hôtels, restaurants, etc- no-one to man the lifts, groom the pistes, etc, etc- and the town was on the brink of disaster.

Ineresting how you are conflating illegals with migrant workers.

	Quote:
	Oooops they have been advertising, and advertising and advertising some more- but nope. All those in East Anglia who voted Brexit because foreigners were taking their job- have NOT applied...So it is now realised that the UK needs 70000 labourers to pick vegetables and soon, fruit. Many flights from Romania organised starting tomorrow, with a huge advertising campaing in Eastern Europe on the way. Just could NOT make it up. And in the middle of Covid crisis. Reminds me of going skiing in Steamboat in the 90s. The local redneck politicians had had a massive 'clean-out' getting rid of 1000s of 'irregular' workers. They were mightily pleased with themselves- until the ski season started and they realised they had no-one to clean and prepare food in Hôtels, restaurants, etc- no-one to man the lifts, groom the pistes, etc, etc- and the town was on the brink of disaster.

Leaving the EU doesn't stop us from hiring the people we need. Doesn't this just show that little has changed (and presumably will do even when we exit the transition period)? Obviously, trying to restrict fruit pickers coming here is just plain daft.

Its perfectly possible to be pro-brexit and pro-immigration. In my view its actually the more consistent position - the EU and its hangalongs is essence a protectionist block (just look at the immigration rules for Switzerland, and most other European countries...). Certainly it made a difference to me seeing the hoops my eminently qualified non-EU wife had to go through compared to an unskilled worker from the EU to stay in the UK. Surely its the equitable position to treat people the same regardless of where they come from. Can anyone really argue that the UKs proposed rules aren't much better than those they will replace?

For me, you can't really make a judgement on Brexit until a number of years after the event and see what direction we go in. If we go full on protectionist it'll be an unmitigated disaster. We could stay close to the EU, in which case not much will change. We could go in a less protectionist direction, in which case we should get richer.