The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	amogles
	Ineresting how you are conflating illegals with migrant workers.

hmm no - I didn't

Oh yes, I remember the days when I was a kid in the early 50s growing up in Switzerland- and we had huge groups of seasonal workers from Italy- men on their own, living in abject conditions - 6 beds or more to a room, and each bed used by 3 people on a shift system, no bathroom, the casy in a shed at the back, paid a pittance, with no rights, often working in very dangerous conditions, including dangerous materials - sent home if they became sick or injured, without pay. And treated like dirt, like animals ... Cheap, cheap they were- wonderful.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	Ineresting how you are conflating illegals with migrant workers.

Fact of life mate
When the govt. Reduces visas and businesses need workers to survive then illegal is the only route.
Even the Trump organisation relies on many illegals.....

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	Fact of life mate When the govt. Reduces visas and businesses need cheap workers to survive then illegal is the only route. Even the Trump organisation relies on many illegals.....

ftfy

[marton]

	Quote:
	Fact of life mate When the govt. Reduces visas and businesses need cheap workers to survive then illegal is the only route. Even the Trump organisation relies on many illegals.....

	Quote:	k_and_e
	ftfy

This old chestnut

In the real world, there are jobs the locals will not do regardless of the level of payment.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	This old chestnut In the real world, there are jobs the locals will not do regardless of the level of payment.

I don't agree with that. If you can't find resources for your business, then there is simply not a business model.

[greenmount]

	Quote:
	Oh yes, I remember the days when I was a kid in the early 50s growing up in Switzerland- and we had huge groups of seasonal workers from Italy- men on their own, living in abject conditions - 6 beds or more to a room, and each bed used by 3 people on a shift system, no bathroom, the casy in a shed at the back, paid a pittance, with no rights, often working in very dangerous conditions, including dangerous materials - sent home if they became sick or injured, without pay. And treated like dirt, like animals ... Cheap, cheap they were- wonderful.

Nothing really changed in Europe since then. It's all unspoken of, but it's still there. Some roles have been reversed here and there, but treating seasonal workers badly is the norm. Those people don't live like that where they come from. They're making huge sacrifices for their families. They also need health and accident insurance, not to be sent back home when they're sick or unemployed.

And as pro-EU as I can (still) be, this is a thing I'll never be willing to just let it go.

As for the seasonal workers themselves, if you're unemployed or need those money to keep your family afloat, what would you do, Odile? I don't agree with freedom of movement during corona crisis though.

Besides, it's also the fault of these countries because they can't keep their much-needed workforce at home. Romania too (since you brought it up and it is my beloved country) has a chronic labour shortage, yet nobody/few is(are) willing to pay them the right salaries. This.

Our politicians just woke up recently saying we shouldn't discriminate the local producers. Now. In 2020. Because having unrestricted freedom of movement for goods/services means...basically exactly this. That we discriminate against own industries. Which in turn can't pay the workers properly or according to their expectations. But yeah... we all knew that. Way before they admitted publicly. Minister of Labour said she can't impede freedom of movement in EU or prevent people from getting a job where they wish. Riiiight. It's like this if you wondered. Very incompetent and complacent authorities who will be held responsible one day. It's just not the right time yet.

I don't see irony where you see irony because it was obvious (to me) that all the Brexit BS was just that - BS. I think not many people will come to the UK though, in spite of what media parades as post-Brexit "victories" - look, we can still get the people we need, Brexit is good!!. Those who will come now is because they really need those money and are taking the whole pandemic lightly. As if it was just a mass hysteria... As many do here on EF.
Sad.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	marton
	This old chestnut In the real world, there are jobs the locals will not do regardless of the level of payment.

Not true. Not if you tie their benefits to actually working for at least part of those money. Why bring foreign workforce when you have so many unemployed? Who picked up the crops before the '90s?

	Quote:	k_and_e
	I don't agree with that. If you can't find resources for your business, then there is simply not a business model.

This.

They don't want to pick "mushrooms", do something else then. You can get those mushrooms from somewhere else, somewhere where people don't think any work is beneath them.

[greenmount]

An article from The Economist.

	Quote:
	When borders close, who will pick the crops? No song captures the mood of Germany in spring quite like the 1930 hit “Veronika, the spring is here”: “The girls are singing tra-la-la, the whole world is enchanted. Veronika, the asparagus is sprouting!” April in Germany is Spargelzeit, or “asparagus time”. Purists race to farm stalls to buy the freshest stalks (white, unlike the green summer variety), and serve it up with sliced ham and hollandaise sauce or with breadcrumbs and butter. But this year much of the crop will rot in the fields. Border restrictions to fight covid-19 are keeping the eastern European agricultural workers who help to pick it at home. Germany normally employs 30,000 seasonal farmhands for the asparagus harvest, with 5,000 in the state of Brandenburg alone. So far in Brandenburg only about half that number have arrived. Germany’s border is open for Poles working in critical sectors, but Polish farm workers hesitate to cross it because their government says any who do will be quarantined for 14 days on their return. In late March, desperate asparagus farmers chartered a plane to fly in 190 Romanians. They nearly failed to get in: on March 25th Germany barred seasonal workers from countries that do not belong to the Schengen border-free zone. Asparagus is just the tip of a problem that European farmers will soon face. Germany will need almost 300,000 seasonal farmhands this year. France, where strawberry season is approaching, needs 200,000 in the next three months; between a third and two-thirds usually come from abroad. The Netherlands is Europe’s biggest agricultural exporter, but most of the workers who pick tomatoes and cucumbers in its greenhouses are from eastern Europe, and many will not come this year. Some industries can be put on hold, but not agriculture. On March 30th the European Commission laid out principles to make sure crucial employees, including seasonal farm workers, can cross borders. But Bulgarians and Romanians travelling to western Europe would normally go through Hungary, which shut its border with Romania in mid-March. (It has reopened, but mainly for freight and commuters who live near the frontier.) Even where borders are open, many workers are not coming, worried about contracting covid-19 abroad or being quarantined when they return. Staying at home means hardship. Nitfie Salimova, a Bulgarian, had planned to go to Belgium in May to pick berries, a job that last year earned her €150 ($160) per day. That is almost half the Bulgarian minimum monthly wage. Her earnings paid for smartphones for her daughters and a Black Sea holiday. The head of a Bulgarian agency that sends 500 workers per year to Germany, Austria and Britain says no one is going now; in fact, scores are heading home. In Poland the problem is not just loss of jobs in Germany, but a shortage of the Ukrainians who work on Polish farms. Jakub Sztandera, who grows mushrooms in Siedlce, employs 200 workers in his climate-controlled sheds, 90% of them Ukrainian. When Poland closed its borders on March 14th, Ukrainians rushed to leave, and Mr Sztandera is not sure how to replace them. Around 1.3m Ukrainians were estimated to be working in Poland before the border closed. The head of the country’s farmer’s union says that without them the food supply will be at risk. Some countries hope to limit the damage by letting workers who are already there stay longer. Belgium has lengthened work-permits for foreign farmhands, and Germany has extended the period in which they can work without paying local social security taxes. In the Netherlands a collapse of demand for flowers has left workers who came to pluck tulips with little to do; some have gone to vegetable farms. Another solution is to recruit locals idled by the shutdown. In Germany a website for farm jobs received thousands of postings on its first day. France’s agricultural umbrella organisation, the fnsea, says its new jobs site has 150,000 subscribers. An online jobs market in the Netherlands called “Help Us Harvest” has 2,500 openings. But it is not clear how many jobs have actually been filled. Europe’s farmers would rather not rely on first-timers. Edwin Veenhoeve, an asparagus farmer in the Netherlands, says that in the past 40 years perhaps ten Dutch people had ever applied to work the harvest on his family farm. This month alone 30 have applied. Still, compared with experienced Poles, Romanians and Bulgarians, they are not ideal farmhands, he adds: “Dutch people are used to working Monday to Friday, nine to five. But the asparagus keeps growing seven days a week.” ■ Dig deeper: For our latest coverage of the covid-19 pandemic, register for The Economist Today, our daily newsletter, or visit our coronavirus tracker and story hub

Now, seriously. This is ridiculous. Countries are in quarantine and fight against the pandemic and keep people in their homes and have closed the schools, but the battle on seasonal workers is so big and they outbid each other in a crazy race to bring people because their own population refuses to do these jobs.

All these lockdowns and quarantines and the medical staff having to treat the infected when they'll return - I'm sure some of them will die or get infected and sent back home.

This thing has irremediably compromised the idea of European Union in my view. Most people back home are simply outraged.

	Quote:	greenmount
	An article from The Economist. Now, seriously. This is ridiculous. Countries are in quarantine and fight against the pandemic and keep people in their homes and closed the schools, but the battle on seasonal workers is so big and they outbid each other in a crazy race to bring people because their own population refuses to do these jobs. All these lockdowns and quarantines and the medical staff having to treat the infected when they'll return - I'm sure some of them will die or get infected and send back home. This thing has compromised the idea of European Union.

What's the alternative. You'd have to pay Brits, Dutch, Swiss, Germans etc. a lot to pick fruit, and they'd do a much worse job. There probably aren't enough local unemployed in commutable distance.

I guess the alternative is having less, much more expensive fruit.

	Quote:	jorido
	Leaving the EU doesn't stop us from hiring the people we need. Doesn't this just show that little has changed (and presumably will do even when we exit the transition period)? Obviously, trying to restrict fruit pickers coming here is just plain daft. Its perfectly possible to be pro-brexit and pro-immigration. In my view its actually the more consistent position - the EU and its hangalongs is essence a protectionist block (just look at the immigration rules for Switzerland, and most other European countries...). Certainly it made a difference to me seeing the hoops my eminently qualified non-EU wife had to go through compared to an unskilled worker from the EU to stay in the UK. Surely its the equitable position to treat people the same regardless of where they come from. Can anyone really argue that the UKs proposed rules aren't much better than those they will replace? For me, you can't really make a judgement on Brexit until a number of years after the event and see what direction we go in. If we go full on protectionist it'll be an unmitigated disaster. We could stay close to the EU, in which case not much will change. We could go in a less protectionist direction, in which case we should get richer.

Funny how certain people think any opinion that is even moderately anti-EU (and not at all nasty or unpleasant) warrants a groan having moved to a country that is characterized by (moderate) euroskepticism.

I don't remotely mind (I've had a lot lot worse), but its systematic of a wider attitude held in certain quarters that people who are not in favour of continued EU membership are either stupid or malevolent, and as such are objects of either humour or scorn. I came to Switzerland from London and there were a lot of very angry closed minded people there. Funny, as they ended up adopting the very attitudes they professed to dislike (anger, intolerance).

A bit like how a certain faction in the Labour party professed to have "kinder, gentler politics", yet put up posters threatening and demeaning voters - "if you voted tory you are a nonce" was one I saw. Thankfully the real labour people have taken back control of their party.

I don't expect people to agree with me - there were many good reasons to vote remain. However, a lot of the problem with modern politics is a lack of tolerance for people with different views from one's own and I think its important to challenge oneself when you get tempted to behave like this.

On this point, it's really uplifting that Switzerland has a grand-coalition of sorts and doesn't seem to engage in anglosphere style tribalism.

[Full Circle]

	Quote:	marton
	This old chestnut In the real world, there are jobs the locals will not do regardless of the level of payment.

Everyone knows that British people are genetically unable to pick fruits. It's just not in their blood.

[marton]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Not true. Not if you tie their benefits to actually working for at least part of those money. Why bring foreign workforce when you have so many unemployed? Who picked up the crops before the '90s? This. They don't want to pick "mushrooms", do something else then. You can get those mushrooms from somewhere else, somewhere where people don't think any work is beneath them.

Who picked British fruit and veg before migrant workers?

[Full Circle]

	Quote:	marton
	Who picked British fruit and veg before migrant workers?

Good article. Seems to hit the nail on the head.

many British people simply do not want to carry out seasonal labour because incentives for doing so are very low. Changes in the composition of rural populations mean that areas of high unemployment are often located at significant distances from the farms offering work. Seasonal jobs are also known to be low-paid, hard work, with long hours, and are often associated with unfavourable conditions and diminished social status.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Full Circle
	Good article. Seems to hit the nail on the head.

Not really. It fails to address the basic issue in UK agriculture - the lack of automation and land ownership. For forty years the EU has pumped vast amounts of money into farming, but unlike most EU farmers, UK farmers did not reap the full benefits of it because in the UK large tracts of farming land is not owned by the farmers that farm it. And many of the benefits were based on ownership, on the assumption that the farmers owned the land.

The result is that UK farmers neither had the money nor the motivation to automate and so the processes are very manual - hence the need for labour.

And on the retail side, of course there is the question of price, how much more are UK households will to pay for farm produce - 10%, 20%, 30%....

As for forcing the unemployed to do it, that is a non starter as there are no votes in it... on top of which, contrary to what some people believe it is not an easy task - it's hard work and if not done properly then you risk loosing a large portion of the crop as it will deteriorate while in storage - remember Captain Boycott...

Without very serious reform, there is not going to be any other option but to bring in cheap labour.

How do you relate automation with 3 million ++++ unemployed. When we have automated more or less everything- what will you do with the majority of people? Should we then move to a minimum wage for all?

[amogles]

	Quote:
	How do you relate automation with 3 million ++++ unemployed. When we have automated more or less everything- what will you do with the majority of people? Should we then move to a minimum wage for all?

The economy is not a zero sum game. New opportunities are opening all the time . Humanity has survived the agricultural revolution which automated away jobs in agriculture, the industrial revolution which automated away vast chunks of artisanal industry etc. Yet today most people somehow still have jobs and are on average better off than back then .

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Not really. It fails to address the basic issue in UK agriculture - the lack of automation and land ownership. For forty years the EU has pumped vast amounts of money into farming, but unlike most EU farmers, UK farmers did not reap the full benefits of it because in the UK large tracts of farming land is not owned by the farmers that farm it. And many of the benefits were based on ownership, on the assumption that the farmers owned the land. The result is that UK farmers neither had the money nor the motivation to automate and so the processes are very manual - hence the need for labour. And on the retail side, of course there is the question of price, how much more are UK households will to pay for farm produce - 10%, 20%, 30%.... As for forcing the unemployed to do it, that is a non starter as there are no votes in it... on top of which, contrary to what some people believe it is not an easy task - it's hard work and if not done properly then you risk loosing a large portion of the crop as it will deteriorate while in storage - remember Captain Boycott... Without very serious reform, there is not going to be any other option but to bring in cheap labour.

First of all, thank you for enlightening me. Your post is the most interesting one because it looks like you know more about agriculture and particularly about the British agriculture. I was so ignorant I didn't even know some countries have...agriculture. Before you're getting upset let me tell you that I'm actually kidding and I mean "agriculture to speak of". I am still surprised by the fact that they got pumped so many funds into from the EU. Land? Nada. Climate? Nada. Workforce? Nada. I thought France, Italy and Spain were the winners in this race of getting funds for agriculture.

I can imagine how the correspondence between farmers and the EU bureaucrats looked like:
"Dear Madam/Sir,

I would kindly like to inform you that we have basically nothing to show to you for the moment, but please give us those dam' money and we'll multiply them. "
Whereas other countries with significant agricultural potential and land ownership got...the same "nada". Because, you know - the crisis. Or something.

I see what these countries are doing as we speak. I don't think this is a way to progress or to have stable economies. Everyone is depending on imported labour to launch their economies again. Soon you'll discover that the locals can't work/don't have experience in constructions once construction sites will open up again. Or - you name it, everything that implies more physical work. What are they doing in the meantime - because the money exist - are they learning to program computers? Take care of the sick in hospitals? No, you import those too. A lot of them.

I don't think this economic model will survive tbh. You either produce something locally, with your own local workforce (mostly) or just keep getting in debts deeper and deeper to pay all the unemployed to stay home while you import new people every year, whom you also keep blaming that are coming to take the locals' jobs. And start some wars for resources. That's insane. That's not economy. Everything will collapse again if they keep going into this direction.

What will be the next hipster idea of a label "Produced in X country by the X people."

Edit: I am exaggerating and oversimplifying, of course....of course. I do believe some things are simply wrong.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	amogles
	The economy is not a zero sum game. New opportunities are opening all the time . Humanity has survived the agricultural revolution which automated away jobs in agriculture, the industrial revolution which automated away vast chunks of artisanal industry etc. Yet today most people somehow still have jobs and are on average better off than back then .

Exactly this! Blacksmiths became mechanics, chimney sweeps became heating fitters, humanity adapts. Always has, always will!

This is why I am so opposed to the idea of a “Universal Basic Income” as it only serves to create two classes- masters and servants. A Universal Basic Income would only be enough to keep people clothed, fed and housed, nothing more. History tells us the only place that has ever worked was on the cotton plantations!

[greenmount]

	Quote:
	How do you relate automation with 3 million ++++ unemployed. When we have automated more or less everything- what will you do with the majority of people? Should we then move to a minimum wage for all?

Send them to Mars?

Or start a pandemic.......